1. This review takes place at a time of:
- serious reflection as Mali celebrates the 50th anniversary of its independence;
- shared commitment on the part of the government and the technical and financial partners (TFPs) to improve aid effectiveness through the implementation of the Joint Country Assistance Strategy (JCAS); and
- reverberation of the serious global energy, food, financial, and economic crises.
2. It also takes place at a time when a great deal of progress has been made in aligning the PRGSP and the government budget. The PRGSP’s conclusions and recommendations will contribute to the preparation of the 2011 budget law.
3. Building on the lessons learned in past reviews, the 2009 PRGSP review will be innovative in its methodological approach, its content, and its participatory process.
Methodological approach: Taking account of the macro and micro focuses of the PRGSP, the government has decided to target three major topics that are both interdependent and over-arching in the 2009 review (the mid-term PRGSP review): (i) accelerated growth and the issue of population growth; (ii) poverty trends and evaluation of the achievement of the MDGs; and (iii) the issue of aid effectiveness and financing. Its aim is to emphasize the value added of the PRGSP review compared with the sectoral reviews.
Content: The 2009 PRGSP review will look beyond quantitative results to attempt to place particular emphasis on analysis, a better understanding of the issues, and proposals for effective solutions.
Participatory process: The entity established to prepare the 2009 review achieved effective participation of all parties concerned, particularly the TFP thematic groups. Moreover, the involvement of all players in this review clearly reflects the increased commitment of the government to expand the consultation process on the major challenges to the development of our country.
4. This report is a summary of three reports on the above-mentioned topics. The data and analyses cover the years 2007 to 2009, with emphasis on indicator trends for the period that expose major issues. The recommendations then propose solutions to these problems. In some cases, the analysis focuses on a longer period to provide a better understanding of the issue under discussion.
5. In addition to the introduction and conclusion, the report is divided into five main sections:
Process: Defining policies and applying them methodically
Continuing the poverty reduction effort
Optimizing financial resources
Recommendations: Making the necessary corrections and providing the needed impetus.
1. Process: Defining policies and applying them methodically
6. After assessing implementation of the 2002-2006 PRSP, the government adopted the Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper (PRGSP) for 2007-2011. This strategy paper aims to achieve an average annual growth rate of 7 percent so as to significantly reduce poverty and accelerate progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). This aim was reaffirmed by the President of the Republic in the Economic and Social Development Program (PDES), which reflects the political commitment to implement the PRGSP and transform Mali into an agricultural powerhouse and an emerging economy.
7. The PRGSP is intended to stimulate progress by providing political, economic, and social players with a series of goals organized in a coherent system.
8. Progress toward the goals should be methodically assessed so that all players may take the necessary corrective actions and provide the needed impetus: the government first of all, through its budget laws and supporting legislative and regulatory action, and the technical and financial partners (TFPs) in public international cooperation secondly, by planning the aid that they provide.
9. The PRGSP tracking mechanism includes:
a Policy Committee,
a Joint Mali/TFP Committee,
a National Steering Committee,
a Technical Secretariat provided by the PRSP Technical Unit under the authority of the Ministry of Economy, which has been mandated by the government to coordinate the process, and
Regional and Local Committees.
10. The annual PRGSP review is the culmination of this tracking process. It aims to highlight the most significant findings and to articulate the appropriate opinions and recommendations.
11. This 3rd Review is particularly important. Although it focuses on 2009, it is also a mid-term review of the five-year program and will lay the foundations for preparation of the 20122016 PRGSP, which is scheduled to begin in the next six months.
12. The technical preparation was divided among three working groups:
one group focusing on “Accelerated Growth and the Issue of Population Growth”;
a second group focusing on “Poverty Trends and Evaluation of the Achievement of the MDGs”;
a third group focusing on “The Issue of Aid Effectiveness and Financing.”
13. Each of these three groups was organized to produce its report on the basis of an intensely participatory process (Drafting Committee, Review Committee, Validation Meetings).
14. All central government departments were highly mobilized, showing how important the PRGSP has become to them since it validates their actions in a particular sector by situating them within an overall context. Data reporting, the joint assessment of progress toward the goals, and discussions on the difficulties encountered and solutions needed have been very productive. These efforts could be further intensified since departments not only have data on their activities but also the necessary competencies to analyze these data and interpret them in a forward-looking operational context.
15. Civil society and the private sector were involved in the process, but only on an ad hoc basis. While their concerns and their methods of approaching problems are inherently different from those of the government, the participation of nongovernmental players is essential: economic growth is above all the domain of the private sector and poverty reduction that of civil society as a whole. The mechanisms for such dialogue could be improved, however.
16. The international public cooperation technical and financial partners also supported the work by providing documentation and assessments.
17. This document is intended to be a summary of the Report on the 3rd Review of the PRGSP.
18. The Report on the 3 Review of the PRGSP focused on three themes: growth, poverty reduction, and financing, based on three group reports, and was intended as a working tool for:
a critical analysis of implementation of the PRGSP as an overarching framework for policies and strategies;
identification of the main constraints to its implementation;
examination of the measures needed to improve its performance.
19. Ideally, the sectoral reviews provide input for the PRGSP review and it, in turn, is used in the preparatory process for the Budget Law, which normally begins in early July each year. A study has been launched on the “harmonization of the review schedule” to significantly improve the linkages between the many exercises that track and monitor implementation. However, data access can be difficult:
Some public data (local governments, public institutions, NGOs that have signed the Framework Agreement, etc.) are still difficult to obtain; institutional and organizational improvements in the units concerned will help with this problem.
Other data are by nature widely dispersed and can be obtained only by specific surveys or cumbersome processing. The PRSP Technical Unit, which has been tasked with coordinating PRGSP tracking, is the main unit using the National Statistics System (SSN). It intends to continue to improve its cooperation with the other users of this system in the context of the Statistics Master Plan.
20. The PRGSP is based on a retrospective mechanism focusing on three main strategic thrusts that work together to achieve a high level of sustainable, poverty-reducing GDP growth. These strategic thrusts are:
Developing infrastructure and the productive sector;
Pursuing and consolidating the structural reforms;
Strengthening the social sector.
21. This results in a complex set of interactions among multiple parameters:
The State creates growth: for example, through capital expenditure (Pillar 1 of the PRGSP), which can leverage the private sector.
Growth increases the State’s resources by expanding the tax potential.
Growth reduces poverty: for example, by creating jobs in the private sector.
The State reduces poverty: for example, by committing social expenditures (Pillar 3 of the PRGSP).
Poverty reduction creates growth by increasing the demand effect.
Strengthening of institutions (Pillar 2 of the PRGSP) creates growth: for example, by improving the business environment.
Strengthening of institutions (Pillar 2 of the PRGSP) increases the State’s resources: for example, by improving tax collection.
This mechanism is illustrated in the following diagram.
2. Accelerating GDP growth
Annual average GDP growth rate of 4.6 percent
22. The modeling done when the PRGSP was prepared was based on IMF projections and specific assumptions regarding the national economy. It shows that an average annual GDP growth rate of 7 percent from 2007 to 2011 is necessary to reduce the income poverty level by 6 percentage points by 2011, an annual decline of 1.2 percentage points. This scenario was retained with the assumption of proactive government policies to support growth sectors of the economy and increase revenues. This scenario is realistic, given the rates observed in the past when no consolidation strategy was being applied. However, since 2007, GDP growth in Mali has been below projections each year.
|PRGSP forecasts (%)||3.6||7.0||6.4||6.5||7.8||7.1||7.0|
23. There are many possible explanations for the below-target growth rate.
The Malian economy has had to deal with exogenous shocks (food, energy, and financial crises) that the initial model could not have anticipated.
The implementation of the Accelerated Growth Strategy (AGS) was delayed in several key sectors, including development of basic infrastructure and the productive sectors.
In some sectors, the impact of the AGS will be felt only in the medium term.
24. The GDP growth rate was 4.5 percent in 2009. Although this is below the target of 6.5 percent, it is encouraging to note that growth in Mali remained above the average for the WAEMU during the global downturn.
25. Inflation declined from 9.2 percent in 2008 to 2.2 percent in 2009. This sharp decline was observed across the WAEMU (from 7.4 percent in 2008 to 1.1 percent in 2009). In Mali, the main factor behind this decline in inflation was increased food production owing to abundant rainfall and financial and tax support from the State to offset the impact of the international crisis on products and services whose prices particularly impact the very poor. Some of the measures to stimulate national production (such as the Rice Initiative) are to be extended
26. The primary sector grew 5.6 percent in 2009, compared to 13.2 percent in 2008. Within this sector, growth of agricultural output declined from 20.2 percent in 2008 to 6.4 percent in 2009. The high rate of growth in 2008 is explained by the impact of the Rice Initiative, which resulted in rice production that was almost 50 percent higher in 2008 than in 2007. Considering this, growth in 2009 compared with 2008 appears to be an achievement. The primary sector has also benefited from the upturn in cotton production, which increased 16.8 percent from 2008 to 2009 (from 202,397 tonnes to 236,000 tonnes). Output in the consolidated industrial agriculture (excluding cotton), rice, and food (excluding rice) subsectors increased by 9.0 percent, 6.0 percent, and 5.0 percent, respectively.
27. Grain production in 2009 was almost 6 percent higher than in 2008. Rice represented 33.5 percent of grain production in 2009 (1,704,106 tonnes), compared with 33.8 percent in 2008 and 27.8 percent in 2007. This increase in the share of rice in total grain production is explained for the most part by the Rice Initiative. With the efforts of the government to extend this initiative to other crops (corn, wheat, and cotton), the share of rice should decline in future. Moreover, livestock, fisheries, and forestry grew by 4.2 percent, 3.8 percent, and 5.6 percent, respectively, in 2009, compared to 4.0 percent, 3.0 percent, and 3.9 percent in 2008.
28. The secondary sector emerged from two consecutive years of recession in 2009. Output increased by 3.5 percent, after having declined by 4.6 percent in both 2007 and 2008.
Growth in 2009 was led by agri-food industries (particularly beverages and tobacco): 8.0 percent compared to - 20.0 percent in 2008.
In contrast, other manufacturing industries, particularly chemical industries, declined 9.2 percent in 2009 compared with an increase of 16.2 percent in 2008.
29. The construction sector grew 6 percent, in part because of the continuation of major public works projects begun by the State. Water and electricity grew 10 percent.
30. Moreover, with the rise in world prices for gold (increase of 4.7 percent), the value of mining production increased by 1.5 percent in 2009. Gold production has been declining since 2007, after peaking at 62 tonnes in 2006. Between 2005 and 2009, it averaged 54.6 tonnes. Artisanal gold production is estimated at around 3 to 4 tonnes per year. In 2009, gold production was measured at 53.7 tonnes, compared to 52.8 tonnes in 2008, an increase of 1.7 percent.
31. The tertiary sector grew 3.5 percent in 2009, compared to 4.3 percent in 2008. The transportation and telecommunications industries account for a large part of this slowdown. After having supported the performance of the tertiary sector for many years, the growth of these industries slowed significantly, from 10 percent in 2008 to 1.9 percent in 2009.
32. In summary, between 2007 and 2009, the Malian economy grew 4.6 percent despite the impact of the international crises. This is indicative of the country’s stable growth and the positive impact of the measures taken by the government in response to these crises. The tertiary sector led growth of the Malian economy (2.4 percent of the 4.6 percent recorded during the period under review). The contribution of this sector is all the more remarkable in that it has remained relatively stable from one year to the next. The primary sector made a lesser (1.6 percent) and less stable contribution. The contribution of the secondary sector is modest (0.5 percent)
Sources of growth to be supported
Sources of growth in the primary sector to be supported
33. The Agricultural Framework Law provides the road map for the development and implementation of agricultural policies in Mali. Its aim is to increase the fiscal resources allocated to the rural sector, particularly by means of the creation of the National Fund in Support of Agriculture. It should increase yields and make land tenure more secure through the application of the decree on the registration of agricultural holdings and the decree on the status of agricultural holdings. These measures will help to reduce poverty since they will directly benefit poor farmers. The Agricultural Development Policy (PDA) and the National Program for Investment in the Agricultural Sector (PNISA) are the framework for implementation of the Agricultural Framework Law.
Grains, particularly rice
34. Mali has comparative advantages in rice production that make it a potential net exporter in years of normal rainfall. This position could be improved by taking advantage of the immense potential of irrigable land (almost 1 million ha in the area covered by the Office du Niger) and by intensification of rice production systems. Expansion of irrigated land is under way is through the hydro-agricultural development program covering two periods (2003-2007 and 2008-2012):
- During the 2003-2007 period, 70,801 ha were developed (all types of development) compared with a target of 64,207 ha, or an execution rate of 110 percent.
- In 2008-2009, 11,983 ha were developed, compared with a target of 36,330 ha, or an execution rate of 33 percent).1
35. In tandem with the increase in irrigated land, the mechanization and intensification of production systems also continued in 2009 as farmers were provided with high-quality inputs and equipment.2
Fruits and vegetables
36. Mali produces a number of vegetables and exotic fruits (mangoes, green beans, tiger nuts) for which there is high off-season demand in Europe and the Middle East. Through trade related assistance programs, efforts are being made to help players in the fruits and vegetables subsector meet regulatory and trade requirements for the international markets. These efforts have resulted, for example, in a 135 percent increase in the value of mango exports between 2005 and 2009.
37. Gum arabic is a harvestable wild product with export potential that is under-exploited. With modern tapping techniques, harvests could be increased tenfold, meaning that output could easily reach 5,000 tonnes per year from naturally growing trees alone. The development of new plantations should not pose any technical difficulties.
38. Shea nuts are a versatile product (food, traditional medicines, cosmetics, soaps, lighting, etc.) and a significant source of income for farmers, primarily women. Potential output is estimated at 165,000 tonnes of dried nuts per year, compared to the 80,000 tonnes currently produced.
39. Controlled exports of live animals are significantly higher than they were in 2008. Appropriate processing, transportation, and storage equipment (modern refrigerated slaughterhouses and refrigerated trucks) are needed to bring additional value added to these products.
40. The implementation of the National Strategy for the Development of Biofuels prepared in 2008 creates excellent prospects for coverage of a significant portion of fuel demand. Moreover, in the long run, it will help not only to limit greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the use of conventional fuels, but will also promote access to lower-cost fuels (jatropha oil).
Sources of growth in the secondary sector that should be supported
41. Gold is currently the top mineral resource in Mali, and the six gold mines in operation make Mali the third largest gold producer in Africa, after South Africa and Ghana. In 2008, the National Directorate of Geology and Mines (DNGM) estimated proven reserves at 320 tonnes. At a rate of extraction of 50 tonnes per year, these mines can be expected to continue in operation for six years. In addition to gold, other minerals are of particular interest and the mining department is planning to launch a vast program to promote and inventory certain growth subsectors, including oil exploration (under way) and the production of construction materials (with the signing of a special tax agreement between the Government of Mali and the Indian company WACEM Mali hopes to begin to produce approximately 1 million tonnes of cement per year starting in 2011, creating about 250 direct jobs).
42. According to estimates for the sector, 40 percent of the labor force works in the handicrafts subsector, which contributes 15 to 20 percent to GDP. Exports of handicrafts totaled CFAF 3.7 billion in 2009. The policy to promote handicrafts resulted in a legal and regulatory framework for the subsector and the creation of both the National Center for the Promotion of Handicrafts and the Chamber of Trades. These efforts should be continued as part of a genuine blueprint for the development of handicrafts in order to exploit the growth potential of this sector.
43. The availability of high quality raw cotton is a potential advantage, but it does not allow for the development of a cotton processing industry based on spinning or weaving because of advances in the automation of the global textile industry. This automation has resulted in an erosion of the comparative advantage of low-wage countries, such as Mali. It is therefore necessary to promote investment in textiles, particularly local industrial textiles and traditional textiles. The privatization of CMDT, which is under way, should help to strengthen the competitiveness of Malian textiles. Moreover, greater support for activities related to textiles (oil milling, livestock feed, soaps, etc.) would be a source of value added and thus of growth for the economy.
Agri-food and processing industries
44. A large number of farm, forestry, and pasture products could be further processed, which would create jobs and strengthen economic growth. The significant progress achieved in the processing of fruits and vegetables, the completion of the Markala sugar project, and the third sugar factory (N-Sukala) should help to make the Office du Niger area a genuine economic center and thus promote substantial overall growth.
Sources of growth in the tertiary sector that should be supported
45. The number of jobs generated by the tourism sector doubled between 2002 and 2009 (from 10,315 in 2002 to 20,296 in 2009). However, in 2009, only 115,500 international visitors entered Mali via the Bamako Sénou Airport, compared with 135,902 in 2008, a 15 percent decline resulting primarily from the impact of the international crisis.
46. The telecommunications sector is a source of growth in and of itself but it is also an important production factor for all other sectors of the economy. The impetus provided by the sector as the privatization process is completed in 2009 should enable it to contribute significantly to accelerating growth. A legal and institutional framework that is favorable to the establishment of private operators appears to be needed.
Impact of growth on the environment
47. Mali faces major environmental challenges: soil degradation, plant cover depletion, desertification, silting of the Niger River, water shortages, loss of biodiversity, climate change, etc. The environment is a key factor in all rural development policies, although it is often neglected in sectoral policies that have a major environmental impact (specifically industry and energy policies). The current review of Decree No. 08-346/P-RM of 06/26/08 on impact studies and the study for the development of the national environmental assessment strategy have raised considerable expectations.
48. For the moment, efforts are concentrated on soil and plant cover preservation and desertification control through the preparation of a Strategic Framework for Investment in Sustainable Land Management (CSI/GDT). Continued implementation of the Agricultural Framework Law will also support sustainable land management.
Progress of the Accelerated Growth Strategy
49. To achieve the 7 percent growth target, an Accelerated Growth Strategy (AGS) has been prepared for the 2008-2012 period. It proposes to make rural development the engine of economic growth and to make the private sector its vehicle.
50. The strategy’s action plan focuses on five main areas:
Improving the macroeconomic and fiscal framework;
Improving governance and combating corruption;
Pursuing structural reforms;
Developing infrastructure and the productive sectors;
Developing the private sector.
51. Progress in the implementation of this strategy indicates that most of the planned actions have been launched. However, the progress of certain key actions, such as hydro-agricultural projects, has fallen short of the objectives owing to the amount of financing that needs to be mobilized.
52. The forecast rate of growth for 2010 is 5.2 percent, while the PRGSP target is 7.8 percent. The 5.2 percent forecast is based on a number of assumptions, including sustained performance in the primary and tertiary sectors, and improved growth in the secondary sector. These assumptions take into account recent developments in these sectors, the international economic environment, and the implementation of the Accelerated Growth Strategy.
53. The primary sector could grow 4.8 percent if efforts made in the context of the Rice Initiative continue and are expanded to other crops and if the reform of the cotton sector is implemented efficiently.
54. Growth in the secondary sector should reach 4.5 percent in 2010, compared with 3.5 percent in 2009, as the mining slowdown is offset by the expansion of other industries.
55. Growth of 5.3 percent is expected in the tertiary sector in 2010 compared with 3.5 percent in 2009. The transportation and telecommunications industries are expected to grow by 5 percent. Trade could strengthen as national strategies for the development of the shea nut and gum arabic industries are launched and the Export Promotion Agency begins operations.
Impact of population growth on the economy
56. The resident population of Mali has increased fourfold since independence despite substantial emigration flows. The population has increased from 3.5 million in 1960 to 14.5 million in 2009, and it could increase an additional three or fourfold by 2050, bringing it to between 45 million and 60 million inhabitants. Based on the provisional results of the 2009 General Population and Housing Census, the annual population growth rate is 3.6 percent (compared with 2.5 percent, 3.7 percent, and 2.2 percent, respectively, in 1976, 1987, and 1998). A slowdown in emigration and acceleration of immigration (return of Malian expatriates and subregional migrations) in recent years could explain the high rate of population growth between 1998 and 2009. An analysis of the final results of the census will be enlightening.
57. Population growth is an economic problem in that it impacts per capita income, which will decline if GDP does not grow as quickly as the population does. It also raises the issue of the universal values of fertility and children’s rights. The 2006 Population and Health Survey shows that approximately 30 percent of women would like to use a family planning method but do not have access to services that could help them. Measures to slow population growth are included in Mali’s National Population Policy and its third implementation program for 2010-2014.
Constraints to growth
58. Mali faces external constraints to growth: unpredictable climatic conditions and fluctuations in the prices of export and import products. In contrast, domestic constraints, which can be influenced by proactive policies, can be divided into two broad categories:
Constraints that are gradually disappearing
59. Some production costs, such as transportation and telecommunications costs, are trending downward: in the case of transportation costs because of infrastructure improvements, particularly in the road network, and in the case of telecommunications costs because of greater competition. Electricity should be less expensive when the Malian network is connected with the Côte d’Ivoire network.
60. The institutional environment has improved in recent years with the creation of the One-Stop Shop and the simplification of the Tax Code in 2009.
Constraints that remain
61. Other constraints require more sustained action, however:
Insufficient qualified labor in most sectors.
Weakness of the financial system: banks grant only short-and medium-term loans (maximum of five years), limit the amounts involved, require collateral that is difficult to provide, and keep interest rates high. Most lending is for terms of less than six months and bank loans are extended primarily to finance trade.
Little diversification of production: the share of the primary sector in the national economy remains dominant. As this sector pays almost no taxes, there is no direct link between economic performance and government revenues.
Underuse of surface waters: each year immense quantities of rainwater are lost when they could be used for agriculture or to water livestock.
3. Continuing the poverty reduction effort
62. Income poverty was estimated at 43.7 percent in 2009, a decline of 3.7 percentage points from 2006 (47.4 percent).
It has decreased significantly in rural areas, from 57.6 percent to 53.5 percent, as a result of substantial public investment, particularly in basic infrastructure.
In contrast, it has declined very little in urban areas (from 25.5 percent to 23.5 percent) owing to the persistence of profound inequalities and urban drift, with severe poverty pushing families toward the cities.
63. Simulations suggest that an annual average per capita GDP growth rate of 4 percent would bring the poverty rate to 30 percent by 2015. However, the average per capita GDP growth rate was just 2.7 percent per year between 2001 and 2006 (DNSI, ODHD, PRSP, 2007).
64. While overall GDP growth was 4.6 percent between 2007 and 2009, per capita GDP growth declined considerably in 2009 as the population increased. Prospects for reducing poverty thus risk being jeopardized by the difficulties encountered in controlling population growth. The results of the MICS/LIHS survey in 2010 should shed additional light on this issue
65. Poverty of living conditions is primarily a rural problem. Between 2006 and 2008, the rate of access to basic socioeconomic services (education, health, water, electricity, radio, telephone, etc.) improved. The 2008 IPC shows that the communes classified as very poor were all rural, while almost all urban communes and 103 rural communes were classified as “not poor.” The classification ranked the urban communes in the district of Bamako at the top of the country’s non-poor communes, followed by the communes of Sikasso, Mopti, Koutiala, Ségou, Massigui and Kayes.
Instruments for reducing poverty and inequality
66. Private transfers represent the third most important source of income for households (16.5 percent) after the sale of agricultural products (43.4 percent) and non-agricultural wages or income (35 percent).
67. Public transfers represent 1.7 percent of household income. In the Kayes region public transfers represent a particularly high percentage (31.1 percent), especially in the income of non-poor households (36 percent).
68. It has been established that microfinance associations help to reduce the poverty of their members. The poverty of living conditions of members declines by 10 to 30 percentage points, depending on sociodemographic characteristics. There is one caveat, however: microfinance operates more effectively in areas that are relatively better served by other types of economic and social infrastructure. The very poor, living in extremely deprived areas, benefit less.
69. Alongside these formal instruments, family assistance is an essential component of social support. The 2006 Limited Integrated Household Survey (LIHS) showed that in case of difficulties family and friends are the main recourse for households and that without transfers the incidence of income poverty increases.
Social sector trends
Education and literacy
70. A number of challenges impact the internal efficiency and quality of education, including the rate of early dropouts from the education system, repeater rates, poor learning by pupils in primary school, and low literacy rates among adults.
71. The goal set in the PRGSP was achieved in 2009 since the primary school gross enrollment ratio (GER) increased from 75 percent in 2006 to 82 percent in 2009:
Enrollment of girls has remained approximately 20 percent below that of boys since 2002. The most disadvantaged regions in 2009 were Kidal (50.2 percent), Mopti (61.5 percent) and Sikasso (74.3 percent).
The primary school gross intake rate (GIR) was 77.7 percent in 2009 (70.7 percent for girls), with the most disadvantaged regions being Mopti at 56 percent, Kidal at 66.4 percent, and Sikasso at 69.5 percent.
72. Primary school completion rates are improving as grade repetition declines (although the repeater rate was 13.4 percent in 2008-2009 at the primary level) and as dropouts decrease (although the 23 percent dropout rate for primary school remains a concern). The primary school gross completion rate is 55.7 percent in 2009 (47.2 percent for girls). The most disadvantaged regions are Kidal at 26.2 percent, Tombouctou at 34.7 percent and Gao at 37.2 percent.
|Primary school gross enrollment ratio||75.0 %||77.6 %||80.0 %||82.0 %|
|Primary school gross enrollment ratio for girls||65.6 %||68.0 %||70.7 %||73.0 %|
|GER girl/boy parity rate||0.76||0.78||0.79||0.80|
|Primary school intake rate||74.2 %||75.6 %||79.4 %||77.7 %|
|Primary school completion rate||48.5 %||53.2 %||54 %||55.7 %|
|Primary school repeater rate||17.0 %||15.2 %||14.2 %||13.4 %|
|Primary school pupil-teacher ratio (PTR)||56.0||55.0||55.0||53.0|
73. The primary school pupil-teacher ratio (PTR) decreased from 56 in 2006 to 55 in 2008 and 53 in 2009. Despite the efforts made, it is far from the standard of 40 defined by the World Bank’s Education for All Fast Track Initiative. As well, significant regional disparities remain: the district of Bamako and the regions of Mopti and Gao have PTRs that are better than the national average
74. In 2007, more than half of pupils in the second and fourth grades were below the minimum standard in language and communications, as well as mathematics and technology. In the sixth grade, more than half of pupils were below standard in technology. The 2009 assessment is currently being validated but its provisional results are worrisome.
75. Compared to 2005, the allocation of resources to education is still not optimal owing to the dropout and repeater rates. There are numerous and varied constraints:
little targeting of resources to resolving regional and gender disparities;
failure to implement action plans for the enrollment of girls;
insufficient domestic and external financing;
difficulties in mobilizing allocated resources;
insufficient involvement of local governments;
inefficient and ineffective management of resources mobilized to achieve the goals
little consideration of population growth in planning
weak management capacities at the central and local levels.
76. With the support of its partners, the health department achieved the following:
construction of health centers;
provision of qualified staff to health units;
free cesarean sections;
distribution of insecticide treated mosquito nets;
strengthening of the standard system for patient transfers between health institutions at different levels in the health pyramid;
free treatment of obstetric fistulae in certain public hospitals (EPHs).
77. The maternal mortality rate remains very high (464 deaths per 100,000 live births) although it has declined for the first time in 10 years. Free cesarean sections, introduced in 2005, have not produced visible changes, with the rate of cesarean sections increasing from 1.9 percent in 2006 to 2.3 percent in 2009 against a goal of 5 percent
78. The infant and child mortality rate decreased from 238 per thousand in 1996 to 229 per thousand in 2001 and 191 per thousand in 2006, against a goal of 150 per thousand by 2011. The mortality rate for children under the age of 1 declined from 123 per thousand in 1995, to 113 per thousand in 2001, and 96 per thousand in 2006. The PRODESS II target is 56 per thousand by 2011.
|Maternal mortality per 100,000 live births||582||464||344||146|
|Family planning (FP) prevalence rate||5.7 %||6.9 %|
(6.4 w/o LAM)
|10 %||20 %|
|% of FP needs not met||35 %||31 %||25 %|
|% of mothers under 20 years old||34 %||30 %||24 %|
|% of attended births||41 %||49 %||65 %|
|Prenatal clinic rate (CPN)||30 %||35 %||46 %|
79. The family planning prevalence rate (FP) has remained unchanged, although it is a determining factor in reducing the number of unwanted pregnancies and controlling population growth, and also in bringing down the maternal mortality. In 10 percent of cases maternal mortality rate results from abortions, which are still illegal in Mali except for health reasons and in cases of rape or incest. The goal of a prevalence rate of 10 percent by 2011 is realistic as long as innovative strategies are implemented to meet the unmet needs of the population.
80. Combating harmful health practices for girls and women, particularly female circumcision, has been stepped up using an intersectoral approach.
81. The HIV/AIDS prevalence rate in the general population has declined by 0.4 percentage point to 1.3 percent in 2006. Efforts must still be made with high risk groups, particularly sex trade professionals.
82. The incidence rate for mild malaria among children under five was estimated at 132.3 per thousand in 2009, and the rate of severe malaria at 39 per thousand. Despite efforts made, malaria remains the main reason for juvenile consultations and is also a serious problem among pregnant women.
83. The main constraints in the health sector are:
difficulty of access for the poor to health districts and referral institutions;
insufficient qualified staff at all levels of the health pyramid;
under-equipment of health institutions;
little involvement of rural communities in the implementation of certain health programs;
insufficient subsidization of drugs
persistence of malaria monotherapy;
frequent and prolonged stock-outs of free kits for severe malaria;
insufficient response rate in the mobilization of external resources, particularly Sectoral Budgetary Support (ABS) resources.
Social development and solidarity
84. PRODESS II defines the sectoral program of the Ministry of Social Development, Solidarity, and the Elderly (MDSSPA), which has made significant progress.
85. Substantial improvements have been observed in the coverage of the population by social and solidarity-type medical insurance systems and in the provision of assistance to the very poor. The efforts made led to the registration of 41 new mutual associations in 2009, bringing the total to 162 at the end of the year. This increased coverage of the population from 2.6 percent to 3.5 percent between 2008 and 2009 and exceeded the objective of 2.1 percent. However, the sector faces a number of challenges, including the low level of services offered and the limited protection for the most vulnerable. Significant actions relate to the following areas
solidarity and combating social exclusion
- socioeconomic integration of the disabled, the elderly, and the impoverished;
- consolidation of solidarity and social development mechanisms;
- signing of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.
- introduction of mandatory health insurance (AMO) and medical assistance (RAMED) plans;
- creation of the National Health Insurance Fund (CNAM) and the National Health Assistance Agency (ANAM);
- review of the laws creating and organizing the Social Security institutions;
- revaluation of family allowances and pensions.
- development and implementation of a program in support of the development of mutual assistance plans;
- review of the laws governing mutual assistance plans.
Cooperatives and associations
- promotion of cooperative societies;
- adoption of the decree organizing the National Council for Cooperative Societies;
- organization of dialogue on the implementation of the Guarantee Fund.
- introduction of a mechanism to facilitate lending to the very poor;
- implementation of a literacy program targeting vulnerable and disadvantaged groups;
- improvement of access of the very poor to income generating activities (IGA);
- improvement of access of the very poor to basic social services.
- enhancement of the institutional capacities of the MDSSPA and its partner institutions;
- development of the institutional capacities of economic solidarity organizations;
- consolidation of the planning system;
- creation of the Decentralization and Deconcentration Support Unit (CADD).
Human resources development
- significant increase in staffing related to social development;
- improvement of teaching capacities of training institutions.
Water and sanitation
86. Planned sanitation activities were completed as projected, primarily:
completion and rehabilitation of waterworks
completion and rehabilitation of water points
organization of demonstrations of improved latrines
cleaning and rehabilitation of culverts and drains.
|In rural areas||67.6 %||69.9 %||71.4 %|
|In urban and semi-urban areas||75.9 %||76.3 %||77.4 %|
|National||70.1 %||71.7 %||73.1 %|
87. In 2007 the National Sanitation Policy, the National Forestry Policy, and the Action Plan for the National Wetlands Policy were implemented. Several programs for the reforestation and development of natural forests, fauna protection, agro-pastoral development, and surface and subterranean water control were implemented by government entities, nongovernmental organizations and agencies, and some local governments.
88. The National Directorate of Water and Forests (DNEF) plans to undertake 16 projects requiring CFAF 28.4 billion in financing. Several of these projects and programs, including the Decentralized Forest Management Program (GEDEFOR), are expected to start up in 2010.
89. In 2008, 1,027 subsidized housing units were built, as compared to 1,087 units in 2007 and 880 units in 2006. The number of men benefiting from these housing units is slightly higher than the number of women, although the proportion of women is steadily increasing from year to year, from 37 percent in 2006 to 42 percent in 2007.
90. In 2009, 1,700 units were built at a total cost of CFAF 10 billion entirely financed from the national budget. In July-August 2009, the National Housing Strategy (SNL) was evaluated to identify its strengths and weaknesses.
Access to energy
91. The national electricity access rate was 25.2 percent in 2009 compared with 25.4 percent in 2008. This stagnation is explained by the sharp population increase in Mali between 1998 and 2009.
The electricity access rate in urban areas declined significantly by 5 percentage points as a result of urban growth.
In rural areas, the access rate rose from 11.2 percent in 2008 to 13.3 percent in 2008, reflecting the department’s special effort through AMADER.
|Overall rate||22.5 %||25.41 %||25.27 %|
|Urban||55.6 %||58.2 %||53.00 %|
|Rural||8.2 %||11.2 %||13.3 %|
Employment and professional development
92. Promotion of employment and professional development is ongoing throughout the country. The Employment and Vocational Training Exchange was launched in July 2008 to promote the placement of young people in production jobs.
|Private sector jobs||13,464||13,618||20,532||30,088|
|Public sector jobs||9,555||3,659||8,232||3,535|
93. The adoption of the National Vocational Training Policy in 2009 gave more visibility to the government’s actions in this area, which focused on apprenticeship training, modular training, and training of trainers.
94. A brief analysis of the configuration of the Malian private sector, its structure, and its potential identified eight key sectors where there is demand for professional training:
hotels – restaurants;
mechanics – electromechanics – electronics;
health – sanitation.
95. The Ten-Year Vocational Training for Employment Program (PRODEFPE) will identify an adequate supply of vocational training to meet the demand and create long-term jobs.
Combating gender inequality
96. MDG-3 (“Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women”), which is related to all other development goals, is a key factor in poverty reduction. Considerable progress has been made overall with the status of women, including a sustained political commitment to the consolidation of women’s rights. However, some socio-cultural practices remain as serious obstacles.
97. The National Gender Equality Policy (PNEFH) has been developed along with three-year action plans. The government and the United Nations System have established the United Nations Joint Program of Support for the Promotion of Human Rights and Gender Equality (PCDHG), focusing primarily on mass communications regarding rights.
98. In the area of violence against women, significant progress has been made with three plans of action:
2010-2012 Action Plan to End Female Circumcision;
Action Plan to Combat Trafficking in Women and Girls;
Action Plan on Violence Against Women.
99. Targeted training in 140 trades, including the hotel trade, pattern cutting-dressmaking, and cooking, has been organized for girls who have dropped out of school or have never attended school.
100. The entry of women into productive jobs has been promoted:
construction of 23 centers for the self-promotion of women in 2008;
construction of 10 houses for women and children;
construction of 8 shea nut processing units between 2005 and 2009;
construction of 7 small shea nut processing units in 2009;
adoption by the government of a strategy for the processing of local unpasteurized milk in 2009 with 41 dairy pools across the country;
vocational training in techniques for improving feed lots, tanning, livestock raising, and fish farming.
101. Approximately 20 percent of women had access to land in 2008 and 2009, compared with 18.5 percent in 2007. Although this rate is low, it is indicative of an upward trend reflecting the recent application of the Agricultural Framework Law to the benefit of women, and also of the increased willingness by decision-makers to make giving rural women access to land a priority.
102. A number of actions have been taken to lighten the workload of women in accessing safe drinking water and energy. The installation of 131 multifunctional platforms has given 3,225 women the capacity to read, write and calculate in the national language of their choice. Among these women, 1,048 were made responsible for managing the equipment.
103. Many economic, financial, and sociocultural problems remain:
low school enrollment ratios for girls and low literacy rates for women;
insufficient statistical data broken down by gender in certain sectors;
little tracking of the implementation of laws and regulations (LOA, etc.);
insufficient consideration of gender in sectoral projects, programs, and policies;
lack of adequate financial resources;
insufficient contribution of the mechanisms in support of the promotion of gender equality;
limited scope for production and investment by women;
vulnerability of women and children to violence;
The major constraints to poverty reduction
uncontrolled population growth;
vulnerability of the population to economic shocks;
unstable performance of the agricultural sector;
volatility of commodity prices (agricultural products, gold);
lack of qualified human resources.
104. Improvement in the coverage of basic social services conceals enormous disparities by region and by place of residence (urban, rural). The low quality of public services and the cost of basic social infrastructure (education, health, safe drinking water, electricity), when combined with limited purchasing power, blocks the population’s access to the minimum package of services.
4. Optimizing financial resources
105. Good management of government finances:
both domestic government resources and
foreign aid provided to the Malian government by its technical and financial partners in international public cooperation
is essential to implementation of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper (PRGSP)
106. The quality of management of public financial resources depends primarily on the quality of the institutional framework in place, which comes under Pillar 2 of the PRGSP: “Pursuing and consolidating the structural reforms.” The Government Action Plan for Improvement and Modernization of Public Finance Management (PAGAM/GFP) targets this specifically.
107. Resource management has improved considerably as a result, and it is partly owing to this “good use of resources” that public debt relief was granted to Mali under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI).
Resources (cf. Table 12)
108. In 2009, revenues and grants totaled CFAF 896.5 billion, a 20.9 percent increase from 2008, after the 3.5 percent decline recorded between 2007 and 2008. Grants increased 27.8 percent to CFAF 171.5 billion, but remained below the CFAF 181.2 billion reached in 2007.
109. Total revenue (excluding grants) increased 19.4 percent compared with 2008, essentially as a result of the rise in tax revenues, which grew 16.5 percent between 2008 and 2009 to CFAF 624.3 billion in 2009 compared with CFAF 541.9 billion in 2008
110. Direct taxes were higher than forecast (144.6 percent of forecast), as were indirect taxes, mainly import taxes, (106.6 percent of forecast). Revenues from the VAT and the taxes on petroleum products were not as high (88.4 percent and 75.7 percent of forecast, respectively). The VAT represents 34.1 percent of total revenues (CFAF 247.4 billion out of CFAF 725.0 billion), whereas the accepted standard is that they should amount to 50 percent of government resources. The lack of progress in the collection of domestic VAT, which increased just 6.1 percent between 2008 and 2009 (while the VAT on imports increased 36.6 percent) suggests that Malian companies are evading this tax, raising the issue of a need for greater tax equity.
111. The tax burden rose significantly between 2008 and 2009, to 14.4 percent in 2009 from 13.3 percent in 2008 (the tax burden was 14.2 percent in 2007). Throughout the period, the tax burden was below the WAEMU community standard, which has been 17 percent since 2008.
112. Grants increased 27.8 percent to CFAF 171.5 billion, but remained below the CFAF 181.2 billion achieved in 2007. Coordination of aid is in line with the National Action Plan on Aid Effectiveness and the Joint Country Assistance Strategy (JCAS) Action Plan. Quality improvements begun in 2002 should also be mentioned, namely, the gradual establishment of various consultation frameworks, which operate on a relatively regular basis and which are intended to ensure better coordination of tracking and assessment of PRGSP implementation: the joint Mali/TFP commission, sectoral consultation frameworks and sectoral reviews, the joint budget review, the PRGSP review, and the monthly MEF-TFP (Troïka) meetings.
Allocation of resources (cf. Table 13)
113. In 2009, government expenditures totaled CFAF 1,015.8 billion or 96.9 percent of the target of CFAF 1,048.0 billion set in the PRGSP.
114. Current expenditures were higher than forecast (106.5 percent), while capital expenditures represented just 78.9 percent of forecasts. The government financed current expenditures from resources initially set aside for capital expenditure, which explains why capital expenditures represented only 37 percent of total expenditure and net lending, as against a forecast of 45.5 percent. This is worth noting given that capital expenditures are a source of economic growth and also given that the same situation was observed in 2008 (35.6 percent compared with a forecast 45.6 percent), while in 2007 performance was better than forecast (48.4 percent as against a target of 46.3 percent).
115. Budgetary allocations (excluding external financing of the Special Investment Budget—SIB) totaled CFAF 827.8 billion in 2009 (provisional data), as compared to CFAF 750.1 billion in 2008, an increase of 10.4 percent. This increase is all the more remarkable when compared with the situation in 2007, when such allocations totaled CFAF 723 billion.
The share of Pillar 1 of the PRGSP—”Developing Infrastructure and the Productive Sectors”—in the total came to 20.1 percent in 2009, an increase in comparison with 2008 (18.6 percent) and 2007 (17.5 percent).
In contrast, the share allocated to Pillar 2—”Pursuing and Consolidating the Structural Reforms”—gradually declined from 27.2 percent in 2007 to 26.6 percent in 2008 and 25.5 percent in 2009.
The share of Pillar 3—”Strengthening the Social Sector”—remained steady at 35.5 percent in 2007, 35.2 percent in 2008, and 36.0 percent in 2009.
116. Pillar 3 is a factor in poverty reduction. It receives higher allocations and is driven by education and health through the implementation of the Education Sectoral Investment Program (PISE II) and the Health and Social Development Program (PRODESS II). At the same time, Pillar 2 aims to lay the foundations for implementation of all policies, including and especially economic growth strategies, while Pillar 1 is the main vector for GDP growth.
Poverty reduction spending (cf. Tables 16 and 17)
117. Poverty reduction spending, excluding external financing of the SIB, has increased steadily, from CFAF 396 billion in 2007 to CFAF 404.8 billion in 2008 and CFAF 437.1 billion in 2009. Conversely, its share in the government budget has declined, from 54.8 percent in 2007 to 54.0 percent in 2008 and 52.8 percent in 2009.
118. In 2009, the financial balance (total expenditures minus total revenues) totaled CFAF 290.8 billion, against a forecast of CFAF 279.4 billion. The deficits observed each year have essentially been made up by foreign borrowing, while the government has borrowed very little from the national banking system. It even has a tendency to repay rather than to borrow from banks located in Mali. This is no doubt because of the privatization revenues, which were higher than predicted in 2008 (CFAF 39.1 billion) and 2009 (CFAF 180.4 billion) as a result of the privatization of SOTELMA (CFAF 4 billion had been forecast for each of these two years).
External public debt
119. As of December 31, 2009, the external public debt totaled CFAF 1,056.6 billion, compared with CFAF 810.5 billion at end-2008, a 30.4 percent increase (it had already increased by 17.6 percent from 2007 to 2008). This rise in the total external debt is worth noting: renewed indebtedness tends to erase the beneficial effects of the MDRI.
Domestic public debt
120. As of December 31, 2009, the stock of domestic debt totaled CFAF 108.7 billion, as compared to CFAF 42.3 billion in 2008 and CFAF 14.8 billion in 2007. One of the reasons for the increase in the domestic debt is the issuance of public securities—Treasury bonds and bills—with maturities after 2009.
External financing of the Special Investment Budget (SIB) in 2009
121. In 2009, externally financed expenditure totaled CFAF 192.580 billion, compared to an annual forecast of CFAF 257.629 billion, a rate of mobilization of 74.8 percent compared with 51.66 percent in 2008.
|2009 Achievements||Share (%)|
122. The efforts made to improve the rate of mobilization of external financing have begun to bear fruit, but progress is affected by cumbersome public procurement procedures, halfhearted launching of new projects/programs, and/or limited capacity of companies to execute contracts that have already been awarded.
123. Looking at the sectors individually, the secondary sector has the highest execution rate at 83 percent, followed by Human Resources (81 percent), the rural economy at 77 percent, and the infrastructure sector at 59 percent.
Other sources of financing
124. Apart from the government and the TFPs, other sources of financing for growth and poverty reduction are not easily identified using the existing tracking mechanism. One response to this weakness will be introduced at the end of the next quarter. It appears that, apart from the private sector, which contributes to growth, and Malian expatriates, who contribute significantly to poverty reduction, the amounts involved are quite modest.
125. The players concerned—local governments, public institutions, NGOs, etc.—generally obtain their resources from the government (in the form of grants or subsidies) or from the TFPs (in the context of projects or programs), making them conduits for public resources rather than contributors of new resources, at least for the time being, pending acceleration of the decentralization process.
The private sector
126. Private investments increased by 8 percent, which is better than the 3 percent recorded in 2008 but less than the 13 percent seen in 2007. Until 2004, private investments were consistently at least 40 percent higher than public investments, whereas since 2005 this rate has never exceeded 30 percent, indicative of the substantial increase in public investment.
127. The Malian diaspora contributes substantially to the country’s economy. Transfers from Malians living abroad recorded by BCEAO-Mali totaled CFAF 174 billion in 2009. This amount is far from inconsequential, being higher, for example, than public international cooperation grants to the government, which totaled CFAF 171.5 billion in 2009.
128. The amounts recorded by the BCEAO do not include transfers not directly observed because they do not transit through the banks or specialized companies, which are very expensive and which are not present throughout the country. A study by the AfDB published in January 2008 estimates the total amount of transfers received by Mali at CFAF 300 billion, 73 percent of which transits through “informal” channels. Almost two-thirds of these transfers (formal and informal) come from France.
The banking and financial system
129. At end-2009, the situation in the banking and financial system was characterized by:
|+ 16.1 percent|
|+ 49.6 percent|
|+ 10.9 percent|
|- 13.4 percent|
130. Domestic credit, i.e., the consolidated balance of domestic credit from the central bank and commercial banks, totaled CFAF 446.0 billion as of December 31, 2009, a decline of 13.4 percent from the 2008 level. At the same time, credit to the economy totaled CFAF 744.9 billion, compared to CFAF 671.2 billion in 2008, a 10.9 percent increase. This increase is remarkable given the decline in credit to the economy observed in most countries in 2009 as a result of the global recession. It made it possible to offset the effects of the international crisis on companies and individuals.
Decentralized financial systems (DFSs)
131. The DFSs mobilized CFAF 1.3 billion for investment, technical capacity building in supervisory organizations, and strengthening of the financing capacity of the system, which has been shown to contribute significantly to property reduction according to the 2008 National Human Development Report.
Balance of payments
132. Mali’s balance of payments position in 2009 totaled CFAF 239.6 billion, an increase from the CFAF 272.9 billion reported in 2008. This increase is explained essentially by the improvement in the financial operations accounts as a result of the privatization of SOTELMA and the loans to the government
133. To implement its poverty reduction strategy and attain the MDGs, the government is exploring various options with the TFPs, including: the Gleneagles Scenario, the so-called Initiative of the 166 Communes, financing of the National Program for Investment in the Agricultural Sector (PNISA), and so forth.
134. Announced external financing for the period 2008-2011 totals CFAF 1,830 billion.
135. The data collected to prepare the Medium-Term Resource Framework (MTRF) indicate commitments of CFAF 460.6 billion for 2009, of which CFAF 290.3 billion have been taken into account in the budget law.
136. Compared with 2009, financing is expected to increase by 23 percent in 2010, and then to decline. This trend is more indicative of the predictability of external aid flows than of an actual decline. Predictability drops the further one looks into the future.
137. However, the level of aid in 2010 (CFAF 568 billion) can be considered a credible guide for the level of aid to be reached in 2011.
5. Recommendations: Making the necessary corrections and providing the needed impetus
138. The recommendations listed below are directed in particular at the government of Mali (the Government), but also at the technical and financial partners (TFPs) and the private sector.
Recommendations to stimulate sustainable equitable growth
Step up implementation of the Accelerated Growth Strategy (AGS) and improve prioritization (Government)
139. The AGS calls for the implementation of 93 actions. Some of them are expected to have an impact on growth in the short term, but others will have only medium-and long-term effects. The sources (and therefore quality) of growth should be carefully analyzed to favor growth created by exports and/or private investments, which have relatively greater knock-on effects, particularly in the area of job creation. Better prioritization of these actions, along with the appropriate budget allocations, could facilitate the implementation of the AGS.
Accelerate implementation of the Agricultural Framework Law (Government)
140. Investing in agricultural subsectors will make it possible to ensure food security, create jobs in rural areas, and stimulate economic growth.
141. The Agricultural Framework Law calls for the allocation of budgetary resources to the rural sector through the creation of the National Fund in Support of Agriculture. Use of this fund should make it possible to raise yields, reduce production costs, and secure property rights (through application of the decree on the registration of agricultural holdings and the decree on the status of agricultural holdings). To achieve these objectives, the Agricultural Development Policy (PDA) and the National Program for Investment in the Agricultural Sector (PNISA) must be finalized and implemented quickly.
Develop agricultural processing activities (Government)
142. A large number of products could be further processed to meet the needs of the domestic market and for export to the subregion and beyond. An important challenge will be to improve the quality of products. The Government should strengthen institutions, quality and standardization infrastructures, application and respect of the existing standards, and guidance of companies in certification and quality management processes.
Develop the agricultural, forestry, and pastoral export subsectors (Government)
143. The potential of the agricultural, forestry, and pastoral subsectors, where demand for products is high on the international market, provides an opportunity to reduce poverty.
144. It is true that production must increase and agri-food enterprises must develop, but the key remains marketing at the international level, for which various prerequisites must be met, including access to transportation and conservation infrastructure and a good understanding of international standards.
Accelerate implementation of the National Vocational Training Policy and invest heavily in higher education (Government)
145. In its development strategy documents, Mali has emphasized basic education, which helps to raise the enrollment ratio for children. While this is certainly a valid approach, it will help to increase growth only in the medium and long term. To sustain short-term growth, the focus must be on vocational and technical training to increase the number of qualified workers and employees needed by companies. The National Policy on Vocational Training adopted in July 2009 must be implemented.
146. There is presently some mismatch between the proposed training and companies’ needs. The National Policy Paper on Higher Education and Scientific Research underscores this: “Given the national economic structure and possible medium-term trends, the main competency deficits today involve skilled workers […]. There is therefore a need to propose a supply of short-term professional training leading to a diploma or other qualification that meets the needs identified in socioeconomic growth sectors.”
147. Moreover, the deterioration of higher education in Mali will create very serious problems in 10 years’ time when a large number of qualified professionals in the private and public sectors will retire. In the medium and long term, growth cannot be sustained unless higher education provides the Malian government and companies with the qualified employees they need.
Alleviate red tape for companies (Government and private sector)
148. The institutional environment creates serious difficulties for companies. The red tape, multitude of controls, and lack of clarity in the procedures used and decisions made by the various levels of government are a constraint to initiatives by local entrepreneurs and foreign investors. It is significant that the foreign investments that are successful are made by very powerful companies (SUKALA or the telephone operators, for example), which have access to the highest levels of government. What is needed is to:
increase the productivity of companies by reducing delays and lowering start-up costs (official and unofficial taxes),
encourage entrepreneurs to increase their investments, either in existing companies or in new companies.
149. These difficulties could be alleviated by a redefinition of the mandates of institutions providing direct services to enterprises, particularly the National Directorate of Commerce and Competition, the General Directorate of Taxes, and the General Directorate of Customs (Pillar 2 of the PRGSP).
Ensure that environmental protection regulations are respected and speed up implementation of the program for sustainable land management (Government)
150. In an international context of climate change and its harmful effects on health, soil, food security, etc., production systems must move toward clean production technologies.
151. This requires the application and strict respect of existing regulations, the implementation of the Strategic Framework for Investment in Sustainable Land Management (CSI/GDT), and the introduction of measures to encourage the various parties concerned to opt for production systems that respect the environment.
Facilitate private sector access to credit (Government, TFPs, and private sector)
152. Given the barriers to access to credit, the government plans to establish two funds for SMEs: a Guarantee Fund that should make it easier to obtain loans from private banks and a National Fund for Investment that will directly finance lending. These funds should be endowed with CFAF 5 billion each.
153. The impact of these funds on the banking system must be simulated in a feasibility study to ensure that these investments are not counterproductive in the medium term. Subject to satisfactory and controlled impact, the government could ask the TFPs to contribute to these funds.
154. The assessment of the impact of a Guarantee Fund for SMEs could lead to the creation of a similar fund for large companies facing borrowing difficulties. Such a fund could also be supported by the TFPs
Recommendations for accelerating poverty reduction
Improve the productivity of the food crops sector (Government and TFPs)
155. To attain the goal of combating hunger and malnutrition by 2015, Mali must:
step up the rate of execution of hydro-agricultural projects to protect crops from climatic uncertainties and reduce the vulnerability of the population;
facilitate access to agricultural credit and further promote the provision of equipment to farmers, livestock herders, and fishermen;
maintain price incentives for producers while protecting the purchasing power of consumers.
Continue to improve the supply of social services at the commune level by endeavoring to reduce regional disparities (Government and TFPs)
156. Increasing the supply of social services has helped to reduce poverty. To ensure that this trend continues, it is important to expand the socioeconomic infrastructure (health, education, safe drinking water, electricity, housing, etc.) in all communes, especially in the poor communes, and to secure its operation in the long-term.
157. Based on the principle of interregional equalization, these investments should be more substantial in regions where the social indicators are lowest.
Continue the actions undertaken for the development of microfinance (Government, TFPs, and private sector)
158. Microfinance can make a substantial contribution to poverty reduction. To strengthen the sector, the following measures should be taken:
development and implementation of a restructuring strategy for the sector;
capacity building for promotion and oversight entities;
regularization of the status of all microfinance institutions operating outside the regulations;
capacity building for microfinance institutions:
- in the preparation and implementation of business plans;
- in the introduction of effective management and information systems;
development of adaptive and innovative products for specific zones and target groups in order to combat regional disparities;
diversification of the supply of financial services provided by microfinance institutions;
increased linkages with the banking sector;
establishment of a guarantee fund that will improve the refinancing of microfinance institutions;
compensation for the delays recorded in the granting of financing anticipated for 2008 and 2009.
Accelerate implementation of the National Population Policy and the 20102014 Program of Priority Actions and Investments in Population (PAIPP) (Government, TFPs)
159. To slow population growth in the short term, targeted strategies for access to family planning, prevention of unwanted pregnancies, and improvement in the level of education of women must be implemented more effectively. A short-term decline in the fertility rate is possible. Implementation of the third PAIPP requires adequate financing by the Government and TFPs.
Reduce gender disparities by consolidating the rights of women and ensure the protection and promotion of the rights of children (Government)
160. The political will to consolidate the rights of women has been reflected in the development of the National Gender Equality Policy (PNEFH). In addition to the actions already undertaken, which must be consolidated, significant reductions in gender disparities will also require: (i) adoption and implementation of the PNEFH; (ii) adoption of the Persons and Family Code, which is currently being reviewed; (iii) adoption of laws and regulations to achieve parity between men and women in senior positions; (iv) preparation and adoption of a policy for the protection of children.
Recommendations to increase the volume and effectiveness of financing
Achieve a tax burden of 17 percent by expanding the tax base
161. The challenge is greater tax equity, which requires:
continuation of the institutional and organizational reforms undertaken in the tax administration, which must receive additional human and physical resources;
public communications campaigns on the need for and purpose of taxation;
continued dialogue between the government and its financial partners to ensure transparency in fiscal management;
examination of the possibility of a higher VAT burden, which currently represents only 34.1 percent of total government revenues, while the currently accepted standard is 50 percent.
Increase the share of capital expenditure in the government budget (Government)
162. During the 2007-2009 period, capital expenditures were lower than PRGSP forecasts, although capital spending is one of the main sources of economic growth.
163. During the three years under review, this problem was reflected in the small share of expenditure dedicated to Pillar 1 of the PRGSP, “Developing infrastructure and the productive sectors”. Better programming of capital expenditure through the Special Investment Budget (SIB) could help to reverse this trend.
Continue to improve fiscal management, which will encourage the TFPs to increase their financing and to have greater recourse to budgetary assistance (Government and TFPs)
164. PAGAM I has made fiscal management more effective and transparent since 2005. This improvement is expected to continue with PAGAM II beginning in 2011 and will result in better use of available resources and a direct increase in such resources owing to higher tax revenues. An indirect increase may also result if the expenditure cycle is more rigorously controlled as in that case the TFPs may be encouraged to increase their financing and to make greater use of budgetary assistance.
Continue efforts to improve aid effectiveness (Government and TFPs)
165. In addition to the various consultation frameworks—the introduction and relatively regular occurrence of which certainly constitute progress—the government, the TFPs, and other groups of players have adopted the National Action Plan on Aid Effectiveness and the JCAS Action Plan. These two documents should shortly incorporate the conclusions of the assessments currently under way (Phase 2 of the Paris Declaration, budgetary assistance, PEFA). They call for the TFPs and the government to continue their efforts and implement the necessary reforms so as to obtain concrete results:
predictability of aid by providing timely, comprehensive data covering the entire period of the PRGSP;
- strengthening the sectoral approach and introducing it in new sectors;
- increasing the use of budgetary assistance by aligning it with the budgetary cycle, particularly for payments;
- using the national fiscal and public procurement systems;
- continuing to harmonize the triggers for budgetary assistance;
harmonization of procedures and coordination of interventions by developing joint analytical studies and missions;
improvement of the distribution of tasks and search for complementarities;
results-based management by pursuing implementation of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF);
mutual responsibility by ensuring that the existing consultation frameworks create genuine reciprocal accountability.
Convince the TFPs that have been reluctant thus far, particularly those that signed the Paris Declaration, to join in the existing coordination mechanisms (Government and TFPs)
166. Some TFPs make substantial contributions to Mali but do not participate in the existing coordination mechanisms. Their participation in these mechanisms, particularly the thematic and crosscutting groups, would help to provide a better understanding of the external financing allocated for development aid and therefore its effectiveness.
Strengthen the investment capacities of the local governments with a view to remedying regional disparities
167. Although the impetus for deconcentration and decentralization of resources does now exist, it is not sufficient to provide the deconcentrated levels of government and the local governments with the resources they need to perform the missions that have been transferred to them.
168. The implementation of long-term investment projects and development schemes should make it possible to develop the potential of the communes.
169. This requires strengthening information systems on the needs and resources of the local governments, particularly their own resources. Strengthening these systems will allow for optimal allocation of resources to the regions and communes on the basis of two criteria:
the resident population in these communities (based on the General Population Census);
to specific needs of the communities (based on poverty tracking indicators).
Increase the block operating grants to the local governments
170. There has clearly been a decline in the block operating grants to the local governments, which is in contradiction with the decentralization policy. These operating grants are used to pay the wages of the local governments’ secretaries general and revenue and expenditure managers. They should increase in line with the government wage bill (between 2.5 percent and 5 percent annually), but in fact have been declining, with the natural consequence that decentralization is becoming more dysfunctional and performing poorly.
Increase the tracking of the resources of the local governments and NGOs that have signed the Framework Agreement (resources allocated to them as well as their own resources) (Government)
171. The data transmitted by the local governments, public institutions, and NGOs that signed the Framework Agreement are very incomplete.
172. Tracking of their activities requires:
increased staffing of the units concerned in the central government (particularly the DNTCP as regards the public institutions):
- strengthening of their institutional mandate, particularly their authority to conduct inspections and/or audits;
- increase in their human and physical resources
strengthening of the administrative and financial units of the local governments and NGOs that signed the Framework Agreement, particularly by providing training in their accounting systems.
Continue implementation of the measures taken to stimulate foreign investment (Government and private sector)
173. Step up implementation of the Action Plan to improve the business environment and the revision currently under way of the Investment Code to provide greater security for investors, both:
institutionally (by improving the execution of contracts and strengthening the institutions that represent the private sector, particularly the Chambers of Commerce);
and operationally (by simplifying procedures and making them more transparent).
Design and implement a consistent set of measures to better direct transfers by Malian expatriates (Government and private sector)
174. The total amount of transfers by Malians living abroad is higher than public assistance provided by international cooperation. To optimize the use of these funds, it is necessary to:
stimulate increased competition between banks and specialized companies to reduce transfer costs, which would make it possible to decrease the transfers coming in via unidentifiable channels;
promote financial products that are better adapted to the expectations of migrants to safeguard the savings that they invest “back home,” particularly in real estate;
design and develop mechanisms to encourage migrants and recipients to use these funds for social or productive investments.
Starting in September 2010, collect the necessary data for the 4thReview of the PRGSP and preparation of the 2012-2016 PRSP (Government)
175. This involves mobilizing the institutional resources and/or necessary research resources to remedy the weaknesses in the third review. At the same time, preparation of the 2012-2016 PRSP must begin. These efforts must be made jointly with all the parties concerned (central government, decentralized and deconcentrated levels of governments, private sector, civil society).
176. At the present time, some useful data cannot be taken into account sufficiently owing to the lack of a genuinely harmonized schedule. A study on this topic will be launched shortly by the Secretariat for Aid Harmonization. Nonetheless, the fact that this effort to harmonize agendas has not yet been successful should not prevent consideration of the conclusions of the third review of the PRGSP during the preparation of the 2011 budget law.
Accelerate implementation of the Statistics Master Plan (Government and TFPs)
177. It is essential to regularly schedule and carry out surveys to assess poverty and its impact on the well-being of the population in order to provide data for the PRGSP reviews. This requires adequate financing and strict implementation of the priority action plan (20082012) of the Statistics Master Plan for the production, use, and dissemination of high quality, up-to-date statistics.
178. The 2009 review constitutes the mid-term review of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper (PRGSP) for 2007-2011. It is based on the analyses made above in this report, which can be divided into two major categories:
First, a retrospective analysis of issues relating to:
- implementation of the planned policies, strategies, and actions;
- use of the available financial and human resources;
- achievement of the goals;
- problems and constraints.
Second, a forward-looking analysis of issues relating to:
- next steps/changes to be made to the policies, strategies and actions to improve the results;
- necessary resources to be provided;
- solutions to systemic, crosscutting problems.
179. Clearly, during the review, a critical analysis of the implementation of the PRGSP as a coordinating framework for policies and strategies must be conducted, the main constraints that hampered its execution must be identified, and the necessary measures to improve its performance must be proposed
|PRGSP forecasts (%)||3.6||7.0||6.4||6.5||7.8||7.1||7.0|
|At constant prices (base 1987)||2004||2005||2006||2007||2008||2009||2004/2009|
|Primary sector||-1.5 %||2.3 %||1.5 %||0.9 %||4.4 %||2.0 %||1.6 %|
|Secondary sector||0.6 %||1.8 %||1.8 %||-1.0 %||-0.9 %||0.7 %||0.5 %|
|Tertiary sector||2.4 %||1.6 %||3.3 %||3.8 %||1.6 %||1.3 %||2.4 %|
|Indirect taxes||0.8 %||0.4 %||-1.3 %||0.6 %||-0.1 %||0.4 %||0.1 %|
|Rate of growth||2.3 %||6.1 %||5.3 %||4.3 %||5.0 %||4.4 %||4.6 %|
|At constant prices (base 1987)||2002-2006|
|Primary sector GDP||39.8 %||33.4 %||36.1 %||36.5 %||35.3 %|
|Secondary sector GDP||22.7 %||20.4 %||18.6 %||18.4 %||19.1 %|
|Tertiary sector GDP||30.8 %||38.6 %||38.4 %||38.0 %||38.3 %|
|GDP at factor costs||93.3 %||93.0 %||93.0 %||92.9 %||92.7 %|
|Indirect taxes (minus subsidies)||6.7 %||7.0 %||7.0 %||7.1 %||7.3 %|
|GDP at market prices||100.0 %||100.0 %||100.0 %||100.0 %||100.0 %|
|Primary school gross enrollment ratio (GER)||75.0 %||77.6 %||80.0 %||82.0 %|
|Primary school gross enrollment ratio for girls||65.6 %||68.0 %||70.7 %||73.0 %|
|Primary school intake rate||74.2 %||75.6 %||79.4 %||77.7 %|
|Primary school completion rate||48.5 %||53.2 %||54 %||55.7 %|
|Primary school repeater rate||17.0 %||15.2 %||14.2 %||13.4 %|
|GER girl/boy parity Index||0.76 %||0.78 %||0.79 %||0.80 %|
|Primary school pupil-teacher ratio (PTR)||56.0||55.0||55.0||53.0|
|Maternal mortality per 100,000 live births||582||464||344||146|
|Rate of prevalence of family planning (FP)||5.7 %||6.9 %|
(6.4 without LAM)
|10 %||20 %|
|% FP needs not met||35 %||31 %||25 %|
|% of mothers under 20 years old||34 %||30 %||24 %|
|% attended births||41 %||49 %||65 %|
|Prenatal clinic attendance rate (CPN)||30 %||35 %||46 %|
|Proportion of the population living within 5 km of a functional CSCOM||51.0 %||58.0 %||58.0 %||57.0 %|
|Proportion of the rural population living within 15 km|
of a health structure offering the minimum package of
services in a fixed center and mobile/advanced
|76.0 %||79.0 %||80.0 %||88.0 %|
|Medical assistance for impoverished persons||35.4 %||48.0 %||53.0 %||56.7 %|
|Population covered by mutual associations||1.7 %||2.4 %||2.6 %||3.5 %|
|Population covered by mutual health associations||1.5 %||1.7 %||1.9 %||3.0 %|
|In rural areas||67.6 %||69.9 %||71.4 %|
|In urban and semi urban areas||75.9 %||76.3 %||77.4 %|
|National||70.1 %||71.7 %||73.1 %|
|Overall rate||22.5 %||25.41 %||25.27 %|
|Urban areas||55.6 %||58.2 %||53.00 %|
|Rural areas||8.2 %||11.2 %||13.3 %|
|Positions of responsibility||2008||2009|
|Men||Women||% Women||Men||Women||% Women|
|Presidents of political parties||110||3||3 %||121||3||2 %|
|Members of Parliament||132||15||10 %||132||15||10 %|
|National advisors||69||6||8 %||69||6||8 %|
|Mayors||696||7||1 %||695||8||1 %|
|Communal advisors||10 054||720||6.7 %||9 847||927||8.6 %|
|Members of the CCIM||13||0||0 %||12||2||14.3 %|
|Ministers||20||7*||25.9 %||23||8**||25.8 %|
|Members of the Constitutional Court||6||3||33 %||6||3||33 %|
|Members of the Supreme Court||6||1||14 %||6||1||14 %|
|Members of the CESC||51||7||12 %||52||6||10 %|
|Ambassadors||19||3||13.6 %||26||4||13.3 %|
|Secretaries general||26||0||0.0 %||24||2||7.7 %|
|Ombudsperson of the Republic||0||1||100 %||0||1||100 %|
|Directors of central and seconded|
|95*||6**||5.9 %||262||29||10 %|
|Forecast||Achieved||% Achieved||Forecast||Achieved||% Achieved||Forecast||Achieved||% Achieved||% Achieved|
|Revenue and grants||749.4||768.1||102.5||881.4||741.5||84.1||935.6||896.5||95.8||93.7|
|• Fiscal revenue||535.4||539.9||100.8||663.5||540.6||81.5||708.5||653.2||92.2||90.8|
|- Net tax revenue||509.5||536.7||105.3||621.0||541.9||87.3||662.2||624.3||94.3||95.3|
|Net indirect taxes||403.3||430.1||106.6||448.4||392.2||87.5||491.5||447.2||91.0||95.0|
on petroleum products
(customs duties and taxes)
|Other duties and taxes||87.3||77.7||89.0||101.3||91.9||90.7||114.6||93.6||81.7||86.8|
|Repayment of VAT exemptions and credits||-16.0||-27.0||168.8||-17.0||-22.5||132.4||-18.1||-7.0||38.7||110.5|
|- Nontax revenue||25.9||30.2||116.6||42.5||21.2||49.9||46.4||28.9||62.3||69.9|
|• Supplementary measures||0.0||0.0||0.0||60.4||0.0||0.0||48.2||0.0||0.0||0.0|
|Revenues of the special funds and annexed budgets||47.0||47.0||100.0||55.0||66.7||121.3||60.0||71.8||119.7||114.5|
|Overall budgetary assistance (ABG)||24.8||49.2||198.4||25.0||25.0||100.0||25.2||51.9||206.0||168.11|
|Sectoral budgetary systems (ABS)||49.2||39.9||81.1||35.5||54.6||153.8||31.8||45.5||143.1||120.01|
|Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI)||1.9|
|Forecast||Achieved||% Achieved||Forecast||Achieved||% Achieved||Forecast||Achieved||% Achieved||% Achieved|
|Expenditure and Net Lending (commitment basis)||932.3||891.2||95.6||984.5||828.2||84.1||1,048.0||1,015.8||96.9||92.3|
|• Current expenditure||459.5||462.4||100.6||484.7||459.1||94.7||515.5||548.8||106.5||100.7|
|-- Goods and services||181.8||182.2||100.2||189.9||164.7||86.7||204.8||190.2||92.9||93.2|
|-- Transfers and subsidies||103.7||105.9||102.1||109.0||94.3||86.5||113.0||129.6||114.7||101.3|
|• Interest due||13.5||14.0||103.7||11.6||14.1||121.6||11.3||15.5||137.2||119.8|
|-- External debt||11.8||2.7||22.9||10.0||12.5||125.0||9.8||12.4||126.5||87.3|
|-- Domestic debt||1.7||11.3||664.7||1.6||1.6||100.0||1.5||3.1||206.7||333.3|
|• Capital expenditure||431.4||431.1||99.9||448.8||294.9||65.7||476.9||376.2||78.9||81.2|
|-- External financing||295.1||268.2||90.9||303.9||172.8||56.9||322.1||223.9||69.5||72.2|
|-- Domestic financing||136.3||162.9||119.5||144.9||122.1||84.3||154.8||152.3||98.4||100.3|
|Expenditure from special funds and annexed budgets||47.0||47.0||100.0||55.0||66.7||121.3||60.0||71.8||119.7||114.5|
|Pillar 1: Developing infrastructure and the productive sectors||126.4||139.7||166.4|
|Mining, Water Resources, and Industry||18.4||27.6||30.5|
|Urban Planning and Public Works||40.8||37.5||43.8|
|Pillar 2: Pursuing and consolidating the structural reforms||196.6||199.4||211|
|Public authority and general administration||102.2||96||98.4|
|Diplomacy and foreign affairs||19.4||19.6||19.7|
|Defense, domestic security||75||83.8||92.9|
|Pillar 3: Strengthening the social sector||256.6||264.1||297.7|
|Secondary and higher education||37.6||51.8||60.9|
|Culture, youth, and sports||13.4||14.2||14.7|
|Debt and other expenditures||143.4||146.9||152.7|
|External debt service||10.9||13.3||13.6|
|Pillar 1: Developing infrastructure and the productive sectors||126.4||17.5%||139.7||18.6%||166.4|
|Pillar 2: Pursuing and consolidating the structural reforms||196.6||27.2%||199.4||26.6%||211||25.5%|
|Pillar 3: Strengthening the social sector||256.6||35.5%||264.1||35.2%||297.7||36.0%|
|Pillar 1: Developing infrastructure and the productive sectors||102.40||108.40||116.10|
|Mining, water resources, and industry||14.10||21.30||19.50|
|Urban planning and public works||30.20||32.30||39.10|
|Pillar 2: Pursuing and consolidating the structural reforms||36.90||33.40||33.40|
|Public authorities and general administration||34.90||31.10||30.80|
|Diplomacy and foreign affairs||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|Defense, domestic security||2.00||2.30||2.60|
|Pillar 3: Strengthening the social sector||256.70||263.00||287.60|
|Secondary and higher education||31.20||43.40||52.30|
|Culture, youth, and sports||12.30||12.90||13.20|
|Share of expenditure (C. Table 14)||723.00||750.10||827.80|
|Poverty reducing spending as a share of total spending||0.55||0.54||0.53|
|Pillar 1: Developing infrastructure and the productive sectors||25.9%||26.8%||26.6%|
|Pillar 2: Pursuing and consolidating the structural reforms||9.3%||8.2%||7.6%|
|Pillar 3: Strengthening the social sector||64.8%||65.0%||65.8%|
|Air trans.- meteorology||2,684||2,059||77%||2,684||2,059||77%||0||0||0%|
The reasons for this poor performance are, in large part: (i) slow procurement and disbursement procedures; (ii) the lag with respect to the work schedule; and (iii) work stoppages owing to the rainy season and flooding, on the one hand, and an overestimation of project/program and office forecasts, on the other.
In 2009: tractors and accessories (1,500), rotary tillers (316), plows (348,048), tiller combines (236,608), harvesters (1,054), hullers (1,368), motor driven pumps (3,678), rice mills (9), and various other types of modern agricultural equipment.