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Turkey: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund
Published Date:
February 2000
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V. How Costly Are Agricultural Support Polices to the Taxpayers: A Methodological Primer?56

119. In the mid-1980s, Turkey made an important shift in its agricultural policy. Earlier, the country’s agricultural policy, similar to that in many other developing countries, essentially taxed agricultural commodity exports and subsidized agricultural imports.57 This offset a large part of the support that was given to the sector in the form of subsidies to various inputs, yielding an overall level of support that was kept low. In the mid-1980s, producer price supports, complemented by trade measures, were introduced and later intensified, contributing to a significant increase in the overall support provided to the sector, and consequently its cost. The OECD review of Turkey’s agricultural policies58 estimated that total support (as measured by the percentage producer subsidy equivalent59) rose to 40 percent in 1991–93, double the rate in the period 1979–81.

120. Much has been said about the inefficiencies of such policies. In particular, these policies are not giving Turkish farmers the flexible and clear price signals that are needed for them to respond efficiently to changes in demand. The country is a net exporter of heavily supported commodities, such as cereals and sugar, but is importing increasing amounts of other commodities, such as dairy products and beef, where the country may have a genuine comparative advantage. As a means of boosting agricultural productivity and food production for a growing domestic market, these policies have been largely self-defeating.60 Indeed, the self-reinforcing nature of support policies is likely to be the main obstacle to removing major impediments to higher productivity, namely small farm size, continued fragmentation of holdings, and a poorly trained workforce. Support purchases as well as input subsidies are effectively open-ended, benefiting rich farmers more than poor ones, and hence are a poor vehicle for alleviating rural poverty. Moreover, in the absence of a clear link between support prices and world market prices, and between subsidized credit interest rates and market interest rates, these policies have led to a loss of state control over their costs.61

121. However, very little has been said about the nature and the magnitude of the direct fiscal costs of agricultural support policies, and a great deal of confusion reigns in the debate about these issues, both in academic and in political circles.62 This state of confusion is mainly the result of the lack of transparency in the way these agricultural support policies have been administered. The share of these costs that is reflected in the central government budget is shrinking, whereas the remaining ballooning share is spreading across the many layers of the public sector. The government is giving so-called “duties” to some State Economic Enterprises (SEEs) and Agricultural Sales Cooperatives and their Unions (ASCUs) to execute certain support policies on its behalf. Theoretically the state is supposed to compensate these entities for the cost they incur. Usually, though, the amount of compensation provided each year is dismal, leaving it to these entities to find financing to cover these costs.

122. This kind of arrangement creates two problems. First, the task of adding up the bits and pieces of costs becomes quite complex, not only because these costs are spread across many accounts but because of the structure of their financing. Some of these costs—those incurred by the SEEs—are financed through inter-enterprise arrears, tax arrears, and arrears to the social security institutions, with sporadic one-time write-offs of debts, and the assumption of the debt by the treasury. Second, and much more importantly, the available measures of the costs outside the central government’s budget reflect both the “original” cost of the policies plus the cost of servicing the “debt” that has been incurred to finance the initial cost, such as interest penalties on tax arrears, or the cost of carrying large stocks of unsold surplus production in the form of interest payments on the debt that was incurred to purchase this surplus production. Such cost of servicing the debt, while related to agricultural polices, does not involve transfers to farmers. On the other hand, there are some transfers to farmers (those from consumers due to higher domestic prices of agricultural products) that do show up the fiscal accounts. This chapter disregards those costs, focusing on the fiscal impact of agricultural policies.

123. A proper understanding of the fiscal costs of agricultural support policies has to make a clear distinction between the “primary” cost of these policies and the component of the cost that simply represents the burden of accumulated debt. This distinction is important when it comes to making policy recommendations for the reform of agricultural support policies. Clearly, the fiscal savings that can be achieved through a reform of the agricultural policies per se can only be realized from cuts in the primary component of the cost. The remainder cannot be affected by reform of agricultural policies, and will only decline to the extent that there is a fall in real interest rates, and/or a reduction in the debt stock through sales of accumulated excess stocks.

124. The chapter seeks to quantify and analyze the costs of agricultural support policies along these methodological lines. Its results are preliminary, as is the methodology used to derive them. Nevertheless, the results suggest that while the total cost of agricultural support policies has averaged about 5 percent of GNP during the last five years, the primary component accounted for a smaller and declining share, while interest payments have accounted for a larger and increasing share, as real interest rates increased and the stock of liabilities grew. At 2 percent of GNP in the last three years, the primary fiscal cost of agricultural support policies in Turkey is lower than has generally been thought.

125. The rest of the chapter is organized as follow. Section A makes a brief assessment of the cost of input subsidies. It shows that the cost of fertilizer and other raw material input subsidies is easy to measure as these subsidies have been covered directly from the budget. In addition, the cost has declined quite sharply over the recent years and, at 0.2 percent of GNP in 1999, has become a negligible component of the total cost. The cost of credit subsidies is more complex to assess and a methodology is developed to analyze it (as explained in Chapter I). It is shown that the primary component has gone down quite sharply in recent years while interest payments snowballed. The total cost reached 5 percent in 1999. Section B analyzes the costs of the price support system. This is the component of the cost which is the least transparent and requires an in-depth look at the accounts of the main agricultural SEEs to disentangle the primary component from the overall costs. The section shows the link between a measure of these costs computed by the SEES/treasury, which is called unpaid duty losses, and the borrowing requirements of the SEEs. The section finds that the overall cost of the price support system has increased from less than ½ percent of GNP in 1995 to 2 percent in 1999. Over the last three years, the primary component of this cost has been about half.

A. Cost of Input Price Subsidies

126. The cost of fertilizer subsidy, provided on an unlimited per unit basis, is the main component of the input subsidy cost. Prior to 1997, the subsidy was an ad valorem amount paid to farmers upon presentation of payments receipts. The system was then changed and the subsidy is now provided directly to producers, with farmers paying the subsidized price at the point of purchase. This cost has been halved to just 0.15 percent of GNP since 1996, after the subsidy per kilo has been frozen in nominal terms at end 1997. Various small subsidies also exist for seeds, pesticides, and milk production. Together they amount to less than 0.03 percent of GNP.

127. As explained in greater details in Chapter I, the cost of credit subsidy up until around 1994–95 was born by Ziräat Bank and covered by its own profits. After than, and as a combined result t of a decline in Ziräat’s profits (due to a loss of market share) and a widening of the wedge between Ziräat’s cost of funds and the subsidized rate at which it was lending, the cost was covered by an accumulation of claims on the government (the so-called unpaid duty losses), the yield of which was de facto set so as to cover any loss accumulated. Also as explained in Chapter I, the accumulation of unpaid duty losses, which to a great extent could be attributed to the credit subsidies to farmers,63 can be decomposed into a primary component and a debt burden component. A possible measure of the primary component was presented in that chapter and is used in Tables 1 and 2.

Table 1.Turkey: Fiscal Cost of Agricultural Support Policies, 1995–99(In percent of GNP)
19951996199719981999
Prel.
1. Costs reflected in the budget1.50.70.80.50.8
1.1. Transfers to agricultural SEEs0.40.00.10.10.1
Duty loss0.00.00.00.00.1
Equity injection0.40.00.10.00.0
1.2. Input subsidy0.70.40.30.30.2
Fertilizer0.10.30.30.20.1
Pesticides/seeds/milk premium0.00.10.00.00.0
1.3. Compensation payments0.00.00.00.00.1
1.4. Budget allocation to SPSF 1/ for agricultural support0.40.30.30.20.4
2. Deficits of Agricultural SEEs 2/0.10.71.41.71.5
TMO-0.20.20.70.80.7
TSFAS0.10.20.40.40.3
Caykur0.10.10.10.00.1
TEKEL0.20.20.20.50.4
3. Credit subsidy through Ziraat2.32.11.82.84.9
Primary component2.31.40.80.70.7
Interest charge component0.00.70.92.14.2
Total (1+2+3–1.1)3.43.53.95.07.2
Of which: primary component3.82.32.01.82.0
Of which: primary component of support price mechanism
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Support price stabilization fund.

Before budgetary transfers.

Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Support price stabilization fund.

Before budgetary transfers.

Table 2.Turkey: Cost to the Taxpayers of Agricultural Support Policies(In trillions of Turkish liras)
19951996199719981999
Prel. Est.
1. Costs reflected in the budget117.2106.3229.5267.6697.2
1.1. Transfers to Agr SOEs33.35.627.833.6102.0
Duty loss0.03.10.09.090.0
Equity injection33.32.527.824.712.0
1.2. Input subsidy52.652.694.6142.4139.0
Fertilizer9.845.083.6124.0115.0
Quantify sold (in thousand tans)4,3864,5974,6425,4485,054
Average subsidy (in TL per Kg)2,2359,78518,02722,75322,753
Pesticides/seeds/milk premium3.07.611.018.524.0
1.3. Compensation payments3.75.913.83.5100.0
1.4. Budget allocation to SPSF
for agricultural support27.642.293.388.0356.2
2. Deficit of agricultural SEEs 1/9.0111.7405.8926.61,265.3
TMO-19.127.9209.2443.9613.8
TSFAS10.436.1118.2195.5276.4
Caykur5.817.525.220.443.3
TEKEL11.930.253.2266.9331.8
3. Credit subsidy through Ziraat177.1316.7525.51,469.84,104.4
Primary component177.1212.1246.7380.2579.7
Interest charge component0.0104.6278.81,089.63,524.7
(Memo: end-of period stocks of subsidized credits)240.3229.4455.0845.11,193.0
5. Total (1+2+3–1.1)270.0529.11,133.02,630.35,964.9
Memorandum item:
GNP (in trillions of Turkish lira)7,85214,97829,39353,01383,125

Before budgetary transfers.

Before budgetary transfers.

B. The Cost of the Support Price System

128. The number of commodities for which support purchases are made has varied widely. It grew rapidly to 30 in the 1980s, was later reduced to 11 by the early 1990s and grew back to 19 by 1999. Only three main crops (cereals, tobacco, and sugar beet) are officially supported, the rest are “unofficially” supported.64 Support purchases of the officially supported commodities represented, in 1999, 60 percent of total support purchases. Support purchases of unofficially support commodities (with the exception of tea) are done by ASCUs and are not automatic. Each year the ASCUs must apply for authorization to commission them.

The cost of support purchases done by the ASCUs

129. The fiscal cost of support purchases done through the ASCUs is captured by the component of the budget allocation to the support price stabilization fund for agricultural support.65 These funds are channeled to ASCUs (and sometimes to agricultural SEEs) in the form of subsidized credit. ASCUs have never repaid these loans and the outstanding stock of credits keeps increasing by the additional budget allocation every year. This is why the entire budget allocation could be regarded as the cost of supporting the industrial crop purchased by these ASCUs. This cost is reflected in line 1.4 of Tables 1 and 2.

The cost of support purchases done by the SEEs

130. The cost of support purchases done by the SEEs is the hardest one to analyze and quantify. To prepare the ground for such an analysis, it is useful to first start by presenting the two measures of this cost that are the most commonly used. For the Turkish Grain Board (TMO)—engaged in cereal support purchases, the Turkish Sugar Factories Inc. (TSFAS)—engaged in support purchases of sugar-beet, and the Tea Industry Corporation (Caykur)—engaged in support purchases of tea, the first measure of the fiscal cost is their total deficit as reflected in their financial statements. For the Directorate General for the Tobacco and Tobacco Products, Salt, and Alcohol Industry (TEKEL), the financial statement of this SEE consolidates the activities of its support agency and its “regular” cigarettes and alcoholic beverages production, and thus cannot be as readily used to measure the cost of the support activities. The second measure of the cost of support purchases is what these companies report as their “duty losses.”66

131. To understand both measures and the link between them, the following stylized presentation captures the way these two measures are computed in the case of TMO. Tables 3 and 4 show the data for TMO and TSFAS.

Table 3.Turkey: Deficits and Unpaid Duty Losses of the State Grain Board(In trillions of Turkish lira, unless otherwise specified)
1996199719981999
Prel. Est.
1. Beginning stock322.5273.8358.0465.9
(in thousand tons)4591,8415,5456,089
2. Purchases29.5190.3407.3486.0
(in thousand tons)1,9666,0538,0646,051
Unit price (in TL/kg)15,00431,44650,51180,312
Declared support price of wheat (in TL/kg)18,00033,00055,00080,000
Unit price of wheat (in $/tan)222218204193
3. Expenditure4.612.332.462
4. Interest4.133.3243.6423
5. Total cost3615101,0411,436
(in thousand tons)2,4257,89413,61012,140
Unit cost (in TL/kg)148,70564,56176,513118,311
Unit cost (in $/ton)1,835427294285
6. Cost of sales87152575847
(in thousand tons)5842,3497,4757,159
(price/ton)148,70564,56176,984118,311
7. Revenues from sales12.064.8267.4406.3
(in thousand tons)5842,3497,4757,159
Unit price (in TL/kg)20,58827,57335,77856,763
Unit price (in $/ton)254182138137
8. End stacks274358466589
(in thousand tons)1,8415,5456,0894,981
9. Deficit (8=7-6-change in 8)-26-171-416-564
10. Duty loss (10=7–6)-75-87-308-441
Memorandum items:
Deficit as shown in TMO’s account-27.9-209.2-443.9-613.0
Duty losses as shown, in TMO’s account3.521.5212.7499.2
Average TL/US$81,035151,239260,080415,554
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 4.Turkey: The Unpaid Duty Losses of the State Sugar Factories Corp. (TSFAS)(In trillions of Turkish lira, unless otherwise specified)
19951996199719981999
Prel.
1. Beginning stock12.618.156.9139.4308
(in thousand tons)8827821,4391,6262,122
2. Production32.774.1231.3413552
(in thousand tons) 1/1,1001,5561,9202,1791,650
Unit cost (in TL/kg)29,73847,625120,469189,698334,550
Unit cost (in US$/ton)651.0587.7796.3729.4805.1
3. Import3.51.70012
(in thousand tons)13234.90080
4. Total cost4994288553872
(in thousand tons)2,1132,3733,3593,8053,852
5. Cost of sale3137149245410
(in thousand tons)1,3319341,7341,6831,810
Unit cost (TL/kg)23,08039,55185,805145,286226,443
Unit cost (in US$/top)505488567559545
6. Sales25.639.2150.1244.6414.3
(in thousand tons)1,3319341,7341,6831,810
Unit sales price (TL/kg)19,22941,95186,561145,327228,873
Unit sales price (in US$/ton)421518572559551
Domestic sale25.139.1141.0225.4369.4
In thousand tons129.4932149.41,3071,270
Unit sales price (TL/kg)19,36241,99694,384172,464290,851
Unit sales price (US$/ton)423.9518.2624.1663.1699.9
Exports 2/0.50.09.119.244.9
In thousand tons37.32.0240.4375.9540.0
Unit sales price (TL/kg)14,61721,31337,93950,97683,111
Unit sales price (US$/kg)320.0263.0250.9196.0200.0
7. End stocks1857139308458
(in thousand tons)7821,4391,6242,1222,042
8. Deficit (8=6–5-(change in 7) 3/-10.6-37-81-169-145
9. Duty loss (9–6-5) 4/0.60.119.852.1135.8
Memorandum items:
Sugar beet support purchase 5/24.254180319383
In thousand tons8,82011,41414,90717,64613,045
Unit cost (in TL/kg)2,7404,73112,07518,07729,360
Declared support price (in TL/kg)2,7514,74912,09516,50027,000
Declared support price in (US$/ton)60.258.680.063.465.0
Input cost per ton of sugar480467639556565
Deficit as reported in TSFAS account 6/10.436.1118.2195.5276.4
Duty loss as reported by TSFAS 7/0.40.011.440.1126.3
Average TL/US$45,67681,035151,239260,080415,554

About 8 tons of sugar beet are needed to produce 1 ton of sugar.

Includes sales to domestic candy producers done at same prices as exports.

An approximation of the financial deficit is given by the difference between the revenues from sales minus the cost of the goods sold minus the change in the value of the stocks.

Duty losses are calculated as the volume of exports tunes the difference between this unity ear cost of production and the export price.

Includes additional payments like transportation and stocking fees.

Before budgetary transfers. Differs from the one calculated above as it include some other expenditures which are excluded for the stylized calculation presented above.

Lower than those calculated above because they deduct partial payments received from the treasury.

About 8 tons of sugar beet are needed to produce 1 ton of sugar.

Includes sales to domestic candy producers done at same prices as exports.

An approximation of the financial deficit is given by the difference between the revenues from sales minus the cost of the goods sold minus the change in the value of the stocks.

Duty losses are calculated as the volume of exports tunes the difference between this unity ear cost of production and the export price.

Includes additional payments like transportation and stocking fees.

Before budgetary transfers. Differs from the one calculated above as it include some other expenditures which are excluded for the stylized calculation presented above.

Lower than those calculated above because they deduct partial payments received from the treasury.

Let Q0 be the stock of grains at the beginning of the year, whose value has been booked in liras at S0,67

Let Qp be the volume of new purchases during the year and Cp the cost of these purchases,

Let F be the financial charges on the stock of debt,

Let TC = So + Cp + F be the total cost of the quantity Q0 + Qp.

Assume a quantity Qs is sold during the year with sales proceeds equal to R.

TMO’s accounts define the cost of goods sold Cs as equal to (Qs/(So + Qp))*TC, i.e., the total cost prorated by the fraction of the volume, which will be sold during the period. The value of the stock at the end-of the period (Q1 = Q0 + QpQs) is booked as the remaining component of the total cost, i.e., S1 = TCCs.

TMO defines it duty losses Dl as equal to Cs – R, the cost of the goods it sells minus its sales revenues.

Its financial statement will instead show a deficit Df equal to S1So + CsR, change in the value of stocks plus the cost of goods sold minus the sales revenues.

In this set up the link between the deficit as reflected in the financial statement and the reported duty losses is then:

132. As can be seen in equation 1, in years where there is an accumulation of stocks, the deficit will record a cost higher than the one measured by the duty loss. This is the case because the increase in volume combined with inflation is guaranteeing that S1S0. In years where there is a de-cumulation of stocks the deficit may be lower than the duty losses but not necessarily. This is because the “valuation gain” may offset the decline in volumes. The “valuation gain” arises from the fact that the value of the stock at the end-of-the period reflects both a historical value but also the cost of the new purchases which is usually increasing in line with inflation.68

133. To determine to what extent these measures could be used in assessing the cost of these policies, it is important to review first what, theoretically, the main primary cost of a price support system complemented by trade measures is (what we could call an” an export subsidy cost”). This is illustrated by the following simple model:

Let SS be the domestic supply curve and DD the domestic demand curve. Let P* be the international price. In the absence of trade barriers and price support, the domestic price would be equal to the international price. The country is a net importer of that commodity. A quantity OQ1 would be produced domestically, a quantity Q1Q2 would be imported, and the total quantity OQ2 would be consumed. The price support policy consist in introducing a support price at a level of say, Ps, and complement this policy with a trade measure in the form of a tariff τ such that P*(1 + τ) = Ps. With this policy, the country instead of being a net importer becomes a net exporter of that commodity. A surplus production Q3Q4 is generated. If it is exported, a loss equal Q3Q4 * P*PS will be incurred. The higher the support price compared to the international price the higher is the surplus production and the higher the implied fiscal cost.69 Note that the cost comes only from export activities or stock building, not from domestic sales. Domestic prices to the local consumers are always a certain margin above the support price (but see footnote 15 below).

134. Of course, the excess production Q3Q4 is not always exported within the same crop season. Two considerations are taken into account in deciding the timing and the amount of exports. The first consideration is the appropriate level of food reserves that have to be kept for strategic food security reasons. Because of such consideration, the authorities may decide to use some of this excess production to permanently build strategic grain reserves. The higher the stock of reserves, the higher is the interest burden that the public sector has to sustain. The second consideration has to do with choosing the right foreign market conditions for selling stocks. When international market prices are too low and there is an expectation that they will go up in the future, a decision could be taken to postpone exports. In both cases, the primary component of the subsidy is given by the rectangular area Q3Q4Q3Q4”, that is, each year, the amount of purchases net of domestic sales times the difference between domestic price and international price. In the case of tobacco, given the low quality of the surplus production and the expendability of such stocks, surplus production has often had to be burned.

135. This methodology is used to analyze the primary fiscal cost of the price support, as illustrated in Table 5, and summarized in Table 6. The results are preliminary and would need to be firmed up based on more refined data. As can be seen in Figure 1, the total primary cost has increased from about US$700 million in 1995 to US$ 1,800 million in 1999 (about 1 percent of GNP)70 reflecting the overall trend of widening spreads between support prices and international prices resulting from high and sometime increasing support prices in the face of sharply declining international prices. This trend has, in addition, been accompanied by a trend accumulation of stocks leading to an increased debt burden.

Table 5.Turkey: Computation of the Primary Cost of the Support Price System for Cereals and Sugar(In trillions of Turkish liras, unless otherwise specified)
19951996199719981999
CEREALS
Purchases3.229.5190.3407.3486.0
In thousand tons6571,9666,0838,0646,051
Unit price (TL/kg)4,91415,00431,44650,51180,312
Unit price ($/ton)108185208194193
Domestic sales15.312.032.2183.8281.7
In thousand tons3,0005849994,9154,659
Unit price (TL/kg)3,09020,58332,20437,32260,463
Unit price ($/ton)111254213144146
Exports0.90.032.683.6124.7
In thousand tons10801,3502,5502,500
Unit price (TL/kg)8,08316,78624,14832,79549,866
Unit price ($/ton)177207160126120
Primary cost 1/-2.536.955.642.4
Primary cost (in millions of U.S. dollars)-30244214102
SUGAR
Sugar production32.774.1231.3413,367512,007
In thousand tons1,1001,5561,9202,1791,650
Unit price (TL/kg)29,73847,625120,469189,698334,550
Unit pries ($/ton)651588797729805
Domestic sales25.139.1141.0225.4369.4
In thousand tons1,2949321,4941,3071,270
Unit price (TL/kg)19,36241,99694,384172,464290,851
Unit price ($/ton)424518624663700
Exports0.50.09.119.244.9
In thousand tons372240376540
Unit price (TL/kg)14,61721,31337,93950,97683,111
Unit price ($/ton)320263251196200
Primary cost 1/-2.916.435.2121.095.5
Primary coat (In millions of U.S. dollars)-64.4202.6232.5465.2229.9
Memorandum items:
Support purchase of sugar beet24.254.0180.0319.0383.0
In thousand tons8,82011,41414,90717,64613,045
Unit price (TL/kg)2,7404,73112,07518,07729,360
Unit price ($/ton)6058807071
TOBACCO
Support purchase8.98.431.3125.3169.8
In thousand tons69,55934,91865,917156.67136,973
Unit price (TL/kg)127,600240,000475,000800,0001,240,000
Unit price ($/ton)27932962314130762984
Primary cost 2/8.98.431.3125.3169.8
Primary cost (in millions of U.S. dollars)194.3103.4207.0481.9408.7
Average TL/US$45,67881,035151,239260,080415,554
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Defined as the difference between the volume of purchases and the volume of domestic sale times the difference between the purchase price and the export price.

Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Defined as the difference between the volume of purchases and the volume of domestic sale times the difference between the purchase price and the export price.

Table 6.Turkey: The Primary Fiscal Cost of the Price Support System, 1995–99(In millions of U.S. dollars)
199519961997199819991995–99

Average
Total7347961,3001,4991,7971,228
Industrial crops6045216173381,056627
Tabacco194103207482409279
Cereals0-30144214102106
Sugar-64203232465230213
(In percent of total)
Industrial oops82.365.447.422.658.851.2
Tabacco26.513.018.932.122.722.8
Cereals0.0-3.818.814.35.78.6
Sugar-8.825.417.931.012.117.4
Source: Fund staff calculations.
Source: Fund staff calculations.

Figure 1.Turkey: The Primary Fiscal Cost of the Price Support System, 1995–99

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff calculations.

136. In particular, during the last five years, the export subsidy cost of supporting cereals has gone up due to a widening of the gap between support prices and international prices. This gap which, for wheat, narrowed down to less than US$15 per ton in 1996, widened to close to US$80 per tons, due to the small adjustments of support prices in the face of sharply declining international prices (Figure 2)71 In the meantime stocks have build up reaching some 6 million tons. The primary cost has averaged about US$200 million over the last three years, some 0.1 percent of GNP.

Figure 2.Turkey: The Grains Sector, 1995–99

Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

137. For sugar, the same trend as for cereals has evolved in recent years. The support price for sugar beet has increased very sharply since 1994, at a time when international prices where fallen.72 Stocks built up reaching 2 million tons. TSFAS produced an average of 1.6 million tons and had to export an average volume of 240 thousand tons,73 at an average spread of close to US$500 million. The average export subsidy is estimated at US$220 million, less than 0.1 percent of GNP (Table 5).

138. Based on these estimates the total cost of the price support system could be measured by the deficit of the SEEs, while the debt burden element of these costs could be derived as a residual after subtracting the estimate we derived for the export subsidy. This approach, however, underestimates somewhat the primary component because it is based on the assumptions that no losses are incurred on domestic sales. In practice, in recent years, the profile of the domestic sales price within a crop season has not always fully covered the intra-harvest storage costs. Because of that an arbitrage opportunity was left open to traders of delaying their purchases and obliged TMO to buy a larger share of the harvest than it would have otherwise.

139. The results of the methodology developed above are presented in Table 1. These numbers are mainly illustrative of the methodology and would need to be refined in light of more accurate and detailed information. The table shows that the overall cost of the price support system, the sum of the deficits of the SEEs plus the budget allocation to SPSF, as has increased from less than ¼ percent of GNP in 1995 to 2 percent in 1999. Over the last three years, the primary component of this cost has been about half.

Figure 3.Turkey: The Sugar Sector, 1995–99

Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 1.Turkey: Output Developments, 1991–99
199119921993199419951996199719981999
Q3
(In trillions of Turkish liras; at market current prices)
GNP634.41,103.61,997.33,887.97,854.914,978.129,393.353,518.326,021.4
Net factor income4.310.215.519.592.4206.0557.41,293.4349.6
GDP630.11,093.41,981.93,868.47,762.514,772.128,835.952,224.925,671.8
Agriculture96.1163.8305.5598.21,218.22,489.84,170.09,113.56,536.3
Industry163.3280.1485.71,019.82,042.43,716.57,293.211,970.34,731.5
Services348.5608.71,109.42,114.64,217.88,107.216,400.729,595.813,815.1
Import duties22.240.781.2135.9284.1458.6972.01,545.4588.9
(In trillions of Turkish liras; constant 1987 market prices)
GNP84.990.397.791.799.0106.1114.9119.336.0
Net factor income0.50.91.10.41.11.32.23.20.5
GDP84.489.496.691.397.9104.7112.6116.135.5
Agriculture14.014.714.514.414.615.314.916.28.9
Industry22.924.326.324.827.829.732.833.58.3
Services43.846.550.648.851.755.159.461.017.0
Import duties3.64.05.33.43.84.65.55.41.4
(Real percentage change)
GNP0.36.48.1-6.18.07.18.33.9-6.6
GDP0.96.08.0-5.57.27.07.53.1-5.6
Agriculture-0.94.3-1.3-0.72.04.4-2.38.4-3.8
Industry2.75.98.2-5.712.17.110.42.0-8.3
Services0.46.18.8-3.66.06.67.82.7-5.2
(Sectoral contribution to real GNP growth)
Net factor income-0.60.50.2-0.70.80.20.90.80.6
Agriculture-0.20.7-0.2-0.10.30.7-0.31.124.5
Services0.23.24.5-1.93.23.54.11.49.2
Import duties0.20.51.4-1.90.40.80.80.00.3
(Percentage change)
Deflators
GNP59.263.567.4107.387.278.081.283.058.4
Agriculture41.183.588.997.299.795.871.5101.751.6
Industry58.561.960.2122.678.769.977.860.952.1
Services64.964.667.697.788.380.387.675.663.2
WPI (average period)55.362.158.4120.788.577.981.871.853.6
CPI (average period)66.070.166.1106.293.682.385.784.664.9
Memorandum items;
GNP (in million US$)150,168158,122178,715132,302170,081183,994193,851205,52159,401
GDP (in million US$)149,136156,656177,332131,639168,080181,464190,175200,55458,603
Source: State Institute of Statistics.
Source: State Institute of Statistics.
Table 2.Turkey: GDP and its Components, 1991–59
199119921993199419951996199719981999
Q3
(In trillions of Turkish liras; at market current prices)
GDP630.11,093.41,981.93,868.47,762.514,772.128,835.952,224.925,671.8
Agriculture96.1163.8305.5598.21,218.22,489.84,170.09,113.56,536.3
Industry163.3280.1485.71,019.82,042.43,716.57,293.211,970.34,731.5
Mining and quarrying9.814.921.854.198.5183.1336.9563.3308.5
Manufacturing139.7236.6412.4853.51,751.73,123.06,218.610,128.33,794.5
Electricity, gas, and water13.828.651.4112.2192.2410.4737.71,278.8628.5
Services348.5608.71,109.42,114.64,217.88,107.216,400.729,595.813,815.1
Construction44.174.5145.8263.7426.2857.81,743.23,124.61,390.8
Trade and hotel and restaurant services117.4202.4368.4760.91,587.73,022.35,985.410,404.54,742.1
Transportation and communication74.6133.3236.9514.1981.11,941.64,018.67,102.83,127.9
Financial services26.143.584.5115.0322.6732.31,474.43,280.51,627.6
Ownership of dwelling23.241.268.2127.9249.2442.9850.31,761.7916.0
Business and personal services23.039.671.4142.8287.0554.11,067.51,956.3967.9
(leas) imputed bank service charges23.341.275.7163.5270.3709.21,371.73,049.21,398.0
Government services61.1111.8203.9344.5619.81,238.52,579.94,915.72,363.0
Impart duties22.240.781.2135.9284.1458.6972.01,545.4588.9
(In percent of GDP; at market current prices)
Agriculture15.215.015.415.515.716.914.517.525.5
Industry25.925.624.526.426.325.225.322.918.4
Mining and quarrying1.31.41.11.41.31.21.21.11.2
Manufacturing22.221.620.822.122.621.121.619.414.8
Electricity, gas, and water2.22.62.62.92.52.82.62.42.4
Services55.355.756.054.754.354.956.956.753.8
Construction7.06.87.46.85.55.86.06.05.4
Trade and hotel and restaurant services18.618.518.619.720.520.520.819.918.5
Transportation and communication11.812.212.013.312.613.113.913.612.2
Financial services4.14.04.33.04.25.05.16.36.3
Ownership of dwelling3.73.83.43.33.23.02.93.43.6
Business and personal services3.73.63.63.73.73.83.73.73.8
(less) imputed lank service charges3.73.83.84.23.84.84.85.85.4
Government services9.710.210.38.98.08.48.99.49.2
Import duties3.63.74.13.43.73.03.32.92.3
Source: State Institute of Statistics.
Source: State Institute of Statistics.
Table 3.Turkey: GDP and its Components, 1991–99
199119921993199419951996199719981999
Q3
(In trillions of Turkish liras; constant 1987 market prices)
GDP84.489.496.691.397.9104.7112.6116.135.5
Agriculture14.014.714.514.414.615.314.916.28.9
Industry22.924.326.324.827.829.732.833.58.3
Mining and quarrying1.61.61.51.61.51.61.61.80.5
Manufacturing19.220.3-22.220.523.325.027.828.26.9
Electricity, gas, and water2.12.42.62.73.93.23.43.50.9
Services43.846.550.648.851.755.159.461.017.0
Construction5.55.86.36.15.96.26.56.61.8
Trade and hotel and restaurant services16.717.920.018.520.622.425.025.47.4
Transportation and communication10.110.912.111.812.513.514.515.24.1
Financial services2.52.52.52.42.42.52.62.80.7
Ownership of dwelling4.74.85.05.15.25.45.55.61.4
Business and personal services1.92.12.22.12.32.42.62.70.8
(less) imputed bank service charges2.22.12.12.12.12.12.12.20.6
Government services4.14.34.34.44.54.54.54.71.2
Import duties3.64.05.33.43.84.65.55.41.4
(Percentage changes)
GDP0.96.08.0-5.57.27.07.53.1-5.6
Agriculture-0.94.3-1.3-0.72.04.4-2.38.4-3.8
Industry2.71.98.2-5.712.17.110.42.0-8.3
Mining and quarrying4.50.3-6.48.0-6.92.34.79.3-7.4
Manufacturing2.45.89.3-7.613.97.111.41.2-9.2
Of which: private manufacturing1.97.69.3-12.119.620.621.622.6
Electricity, gas, and water0.46.18.8-3.66.06.67.82.7-1.8
Services0.46.18.8-3.66.06.67.82.7-5.2
Construction1.16.27.9-2.0-4.75.85.00.7-8.9
Trade and hotel and restaurant services-0.76.911.6-7.611.58.911.71.4-8.0
Transportation and communication-0.46.110.8-2.05.77.67.64.9-1.9
Financial services0.8-2.1-0.4-1.50.32.23.96.92.5
Ownership of dwelling2.42.52.82.82.12.42.32.11.0
Business and personal services0.95.56.9-4.37.36.56.93.4-5.4
(less) imputed bank service charges0.2-2.3-0.6-1.8-0.30.61.96.05.2
Government services2.43.41.80.82.5-0.30.15.90.8
Import duties4.111.332.8-35.221.321.318.3-1.0-5.9
Source: State Institute of Statistics.
Source: State Institute of Statistics.
Table 4.Turkey: Production Index of Manufacturing Industry, 1991–99
199119921993199419951996199719981999
Oct. 1/
(Weighted by value added at constant prices; percentage change over previous year) 2/
Food, beverages, and tobacco9.2-3.68.12.65.16.97.03.3-10.0
Textile, clothing, and leather-8.64.3-0.7-4.116.08.76.2-5.9-3.4
Wood-6.20.67.6-13.316.15.4
Paper and printing-5.99.819.2-11.911.1-4.1-1.5-5.70.9
Chemicals, petrochemicals, petroleum products, and rubber-0.63.27.4-4.416.22.811.10.7-3.5
Non-metallic mineral products4.611.76.1-4.311.95.111.20.9-15.2
Basic metal-7.86.513.7-4.24.48.49.3-0.6-3.9
Machinery and transport equipment12.08.116.8-25.720.517.223.44.5-4.3
Total manufacturing1.94.18.9-8.313.57.710.21.2-10.1
Public1.61.02.32.6-1.53.2-1.33.8
Private1.97.69.3-12.119.69.014.70.3
Source: State Institute of Statistics.

12-month change through October 1999.

Beginning in 1993, changes based on 1992 = 100.

Source: State Institute of Statistics.

12-month change through October 1999.

Beginning in 1993, changes based on 1992 = 100.

Table 5.Turkey: Production of Major Industrial Commodities, 1993–99
Thousands

of loans
Percentage change over same period of previous year
Jan-Oct.
19981933199419951996199719981999
Mining
Hard coal 1/2,136-3.84.3-20.87.8-0.5-11.414.9
Lignite 1/62,481-7.86.36.41.1-0.920.00.0
Crude oil3,224-9.4-5.3-4.7-0.4-2.0-6.0-8.6
Manufacturing
Cotton yarn 2/11-7.3-19.8-7.9-19.5-22.9-47.510.1
Wool yarn 2/81145.1-11.8-29.89.3-29.4-68.72.0
Filtered cigarettes809.511.7-3.3-6.22.410.02.7
Raki and beer (millions of liters)76414.17.511.03.24.2-4.01.9
Newsprint98-21.116.725.2-46.0-19.363.68.4
Kraft paper54-18.17.84.9-23.64.0-8.70.4
Sulphuric acid73817.9-3.6-13.7-1.126.4-6.34.2
Polyethylene2953.94.56.4-0.5-2.30.74.4
PVC and PCC2005.9-1.515.411.9-6.65.50.1
LPG839-0.33.78.04.376.75.18.7
Naphta1,9790.61.416.49.21.920.72.5
Gasoline3,7139.13.96.4-5.116.8-5.84.0
Diesel8,02410.52.07.9-6.2-1.18.33.6
Fuel oil6,7083.1-12.82.6-4.8-3.0-6.60.4
Bottles and glass articles7383.50.914.919.122.7-0.29.3
Crude iron5,287-3.45.7-5.220.65.8-8.04.1
Steel ingots13,35111.45.75.14.62.0-2.13.7
Blistered copper3428.2-9.0-19.824.37.15.83.1
Alumina157-9.59.710.7-7.43.2-4.43.0
Cement38,1469.5-5.812.46.22.35.93.5
Tractors (number)82,54544.7-27.257.919.26.67.94.3
Automobiles (number)223,93429.6-39.36.5-11.720.5-5.31.9
Trucks (number)30,94543.4-62.270.654.047.8-29.11.2
Buses and minibuses (number)35,58911.8-59.341.349.834.741.91.5
Energy
Electrical energy (Kwh million)111,77810.16.110.310.88.28.41.5
Value added in industry
(at constant producer prices)8.2-5.712.17.110.42.0
Sources: State Institute for Statistics; and State Planning Office, Main Economic Indicators.

Pithead production.

Public sector.

Sources: State Institute for Statistics; and State Planning Office, Main Economic Indicators.

Pithead production.

Public sector.

Table 6.Turkey: Expenditure on GDP at Current Prices, 1991–99
199119921993199419951996199719981999
Q3
(In trillions of Turkish liras; current prices)
GNP634.41,103.61,907.33,887.97,854.914,978.119,393.353,518.326,011.4
Net factor income4.310.215.519.892.4206.0557.41,293.4349.6
Net exports of goods and services-17.6-32.3-112.437.8-346.1-878.5-1,674.4-1,859.9-567.4
Exports of goods and services 1/87.2157.4271.0826.41,544.13,178.97,088.412,713.34,842.8
Imports of goods and services104.8159.6383.4788.51,890.24,057.48,762.814,573.25,410.2
Domestic demand465.91,161.72,174.53,987.88,172.515,198.930,395.155,382.925,397.6
Consumption522.8900.81,627.43,155.96,295.111,688.723,154.242,755.319,582.8
Public77.9140.6258.1450.6837.21,709.23,535.16,632.83,053.6
Private444.9760.31,369.32,706.35,457.99,979.419,619.136,122.616,529.2
Gross domestic investment143.2260.9547.1830.91,977.43,510.27,240.912,627.65,814.8
Fixed capital formation150.2258.4525.5952.31,850.23,692.17,618.412,839.25,038.2
Public48.081.3143.8221.1304.4687.41,636.33,203.01,166.0
Private102.2177.1381.7731.31,545.83,004.73,982.19,636.23,872.3
Change in stocks-7.02.521.6-121.4127.1-181.9-377.5-211.6776.5
Gross national livings111.6101.8369.9731.01,559.73,189.46,439.110,763.06,438.6
(In percent of GNP)
Foreign balance 1/1.11.04.9-1.53.24.53.81.10.8
Domestic demand105.0105.3108.9101.6108.3101.5103.4103.597.6
Consumption82.481.681.581.280.178.078.879.975.3
Public52.312.712.911.610.711.412.012.411.7
Private70.168.988.669.669.566.666.767.563.5
Gross domestic investment22.623.427.421.425.223.424.623.622.3
Fixed capital formation23.723.426.324.523.624.725.924.019.4
Public7.67.47.25.73.94.65.66.14.5
Private16.116.019.118.819.720.120.418.014.9
Change in stocks-1.10.21.1-3.11.6-1.2-1.3-0.43.0
Statistical discrepency-2.9-3.3-4.0-4.0-2.13.00.4-2.43.2
Gross national savings17.618.418.518.819.922.011.110.114.7
Memorandum item:
External current account-1.3-1.2-4.01.7-2.0-3.2-2.60.3-0.3
(excl. official transfers, BOP data)
Source: State Institute of Statistics.

National Income accounts statistics are based on BOP data that are unadjusted for shuttle trade.

In addition, 1/3 of other exports of services is excluded from exports of goods and services based on the premise that these may reflect capital transfers.
Source: State Institute of Statistics.

National Income accounts statistics are based on BOP data that are unadjusted for shuttle trade.

In addition, 1/3 of other exports of services is excluded from exports of goods and services based on the premise that these may reflect capital transfers.
Table 7.Turkey: Expenditure on GDP and Its Components at Constant Prices, 1991–99Sorry–the quality of the source document is insufficient to render this image into text.
199119921993199419951996199719981999
Q3
(In trillions of Turkish liras; constant 1987 prices)
GNP84.990.397.791.799.0106.1114.9119.336.0
Net factor income0.50.91.10.41.11.32.23.20.5
GDF (production side)84.489.496.691.397.9104.7112.6116.135.5
Statistical discrepency0.10.50.2-0.30.2-0.2-0.30.32.3
GDP (expenditure side)84.388.996.491.697.7104.9112.9115.833.2
Net exports of goods and services-2.4-2.7-8.20.0-4.3-4.9-6.8-4.7-0.9
Exports of goods end services14.616.217.520.121.726.531.635.4B.5
Imports of goods and services17.118.925.720.126.031.438.440.09.4
Domestic demand86.791.6104.691.6182.0109.8119.7120.534.1
Consumption65.968.073.969.973.479.786.087.124.7
Public6.56.87.36.97.48.08.49.02.4
Private59.461.366.563.066.071.677.678.122.4
Gross domestic investment20.823.530.721.728.630.133.733.39.4
Fixed capital formation21S23.129.224.626.830.635.133.88.1
Public6.87.27.75.34.35.46.97.91.9
Private15.015.921.519.222.525.228.225.96.2
Change in stocks-0.90.41.5-2.91.8-0.5-1.4-0.41.3
Gross natural savings19.022.323.821.825.626.428.932.211.3
(Real percentage change)
GNP0.36.48.1-6.18.07.18.33.9-6.6
Net factor income-47.372.517.8-62.0176.617.06S.142.241.3
GDP (production tide)0.96.08.0-5.57.27.07.53.1-5.6
GDP (expenditure side)1.15.58.4-5.06.77.47.62.6-5.5
Net exports of goods and services 1/1.8-0.3-6.23.6-4.7-0.6-1.91.97.8
Exports of goods and services3.711.07.715.28.022.019.1120-13.9
Imports of goods and services-5.210.935.8-21.929.620.522.44.2-4.6
Domestic demand2.24.013.1-8.46.110.09.9-0.2-2.9
Consumption2.83.38.6-5.45.08.55.01.3-1.5
Public3.73.68.6-5.56.85.64.17.89.1
Private2.73.28.6-5.44.88.58.40.6-2.9
Gross domestic investment-10.213.130.5-29.532.15.411.9-1.2-5.6
Fixed capital formation0.46.426.4-16.09.114.114.8-3.9-11.9
Public-2.26.57.2-30.8-18.824.428.413.9-8.0
Private1.76.335.0-10.716.912.111.9-8.3-13.1
Change in stocks 1/-2.91.61.2-4.65.1-2.3-0.90.91.4
(Contribution to GDP growth)
Gross domestic absorption-0.75.814.7-13.611.48.09.50.7-2.9
Consumption2.22.66.6-4.13.86.46.01.0-1.4
Public0.30.30.7-0.40.50.70.30.60.6
Private1.92.35.9-3.73.35.75.70.4-1.9
Gross domestic investment-2.83.28.1-9.47.61.63.4-0.3-1.6
Fixed capital formation0.11.66.9-4.82.53.94.3-1.2-3.1
Public-0.20.50.6-2.5-1.11.11.50.9-0.5
Private0.31.16.3-2.43.52.82.9-1.1-2.7
Change in stocks-1.91.61.2-4.65.1-2.3-0.90.91.5
Net exports of goods and services1.8-0.3-6.28.6-4.7-0.6-1.91.9-2.6
Exports of goods and services0.61.91.42.81.84.94.83.4-3.9
Imports of goods and services-1.12.27.6-5.86.55.56.71.4-1.3
Source: State Institute of Statistics.

Contribution to GDP growth

Source: State Institute of Statistics.

Contribution to GDP growth

Table 8.Turkey: Agricultural Production, Major Crops, 1994–98
Thousands

of loans
Percentage change
199819941995199619971998
Cereals
Wheat21,000-16.72.92.80.812.6
Barley9,000-6.77.16.72.59.8
Maize2,320-26.02.75.34.011.5
Pulses
Lentils540-17.09.0-3.0-20.24.9
Chick peas625-12.212.30.3-1.6-13.2
Dry beans236-10.025.02.22.20.4
Industrial crops
Sugar beet22,283-17.1-13.728.829.020.1
Cotton8764.935.7-6.00.88.2
Tobacco251-42.49.413.723.3-12.5
Oil seeds
Cotton seeds1,4004.935.7-6.00.88.1
Sunflower seeds860-9.221.6-13.315.4-4.4
Groundnuts900.00.014.32.59.8
Tuber crops
Potatoes5,250-6.59.24.23.02.9
Dry onions2,2709.158.3-33.310.58.1
Fruit bearing vegetables
Watermelon and melon5,81510.20.07.4-4.34.8
Tomatoes8,2903.314.27.6-15.425.6
Fruit and nuts
Grapes and figs3,855-6.13.23.6-1.2-2.2
Citrus fruits1,9448.1-5.12.1-21.335.6
Hazelnuts58060.7-7.1-2.0-8.141.5
Apples2,4500.70.24.815.9-3.9
Olives1,650154.5-63.2249.5-71.7223.5
Tea97913.1-20.014.625.330.1
Value added in agriculture
(at constant producer prices)-0.72.04.4-2.38.4
Source: State Institute of Statistics.
Source: State Institute of Statistics.
Table 9.Turkey: Selected Agricultural Support Prices, 1994–98
Turkish lira

per kg.
199819941995199619971998
(percentage change in nominal terms)
Cereals
Wheat53,56491.6110.5197.259.052.5
Barley39,11269.098.7178.768.653.5
Rye41,22781.696.5148.699.053.9
Maize45,51785.9127.6149.173.855.3
Industrial crops
Sugar beet17,70985.7166.573.6153.446.4
Tea leaf87,46471.8104.9100.0110.066.6
Tobacco672,04862.893.783.9103.974.3
CPI (year-on-year)106.393.682.385.784.6
(percentage change in real terms)
Cereals
Wheat-7.18.763.0-14.4-17.4
Barley-18.12.652.9-9.2-16.8
Rye-12.01.536.47.2-16.6
Maize-9.917.636.6-6.4-15.9
Industrial crops
Sugar beet-10.037.7-4.836.5-20.7
Tea leaf-16.75.89.713.1-9.8
Tobacco-21.10.10.99.8-5.6
Source: State Planning Organization.
Source: State Planning Organization.
Table 10.Turkey: Balances of Wheat, Tobacco, Sugar, and Petroleum Products, 1991–98(Thousands of tons)
19911992199319941995199619971998
Wheat
Opening stock7,8618,1964,9926,4023,9803,0483,2933,821
Production18,90017,37018,90015,75016,20016,65016,78517,010
Net imports-2,135-3,880-372-5221,0231,9742,289599
Consumption16,43016,69417,11817,65018,15518,37918,54618,046
Ending stock8,1964,9926,4023,9803,0483,2933,8213,384
Tobacco
Opening stock389418468571569518419379
Production296241334339188204231262
Net exports1377996112136169160155
Consumption8171698170605753
Burning of stocks49416614833745421
Ending stock418468571569518419379412
Sugar
Opening stock1,5451,7701,6411,4857767061,3801,729
Production1,8881,9542,0161,5471,3751,8622,3712,709
Net imports-53-393-472-456405662-122-254
Consumption1,6101,6901,7001,8001,8501,8501,9001,950
Ending stock1,7701,6411,4857767061,3801,7292,234
Refined petroleum products
Opening stock3,4082,6412,5752,6272,4592,5612,5472,692
Production 1/22,05723,59725,66124,88527,02726,41627,03227,150
Net imports-5923691,7061,1621,8363,4153,0932,941
Consumption22,23224,03227,31526,21528,76129,84529,98029,848
Ending stock2,6412,5752,6272,4592,5612,5472,6922,935
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

Most of the refining uses imported crude oil.

Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

Most of the refining uses imported crude oil.

Table 11.Turkey: Rate of Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry, 1991–99 1/(Weighted by production value)
TotalPublicPrivate
199174.577.473.0
199276.577.778.7
199379.579.179.7
199473.078.370.9
199578.680.577.9
199678.082.076.5
199779.481.578.6
1998 2/79.083.275.8
1997
January78.482.975.8
February77.381.875.8
March80.888.078.0
April77.681.275.2
May82.681.783.1
June81.082.280.3
July80.882.579.9
August82.488.278.2
September86.690.882.1
October79.877.181.7
November84.089.880.2
December78.880.278.0
1998 2/
January75.878.773.6
February78.178.377.9
March80.580.780.1
April77.478.976.6
May82.134.478.4
June78.766.479.7
July81.189.576.4
August79.492.071.3
September81.887.878.5
October80.086.676.2
November79.287.874.0
December74.486.966.3
1999 2/
January71.885.260.5
February71.275.868.0
March74.180.368.8
April77.988.470.9
May78.085.972.2
June76.336.469.8
July75.986.968.7
August70.779.164.9
September68.465.870.0
October71.069.971.8
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

Data on capacity utilization are collected from monthly and quarterly surveys. The quarterly series is based on a larger sample, hence it is not directly comparable with the monthly series. The annual figures in this table are averages of the quarterly data.

Provisional.

Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

Data on capacity utilization are collected from monthly and quarterly surveys. The quarterly series is based on a larger sample, hence it is not directly comparable with the monthly series. The annual figures in this table are averages of the quarterly data.

Provisional.

Table 12.Turkey: Wholesale and Consumer Price Index, 1991–99
Wholesale pries indexConsumer price index
GeneralAgriculture 1/Mining 2/ManufacturingEnergy 4/TotalFood 5/Housing 6/
TotalPublicPrivateTotalTotalTotalPublicPrivate 3/Total
(Year-on-year change, in percent)
199155.361.352.950.855.358.853.875.166.0
199262.165.260.862.759.759.459.893.870.1
199358.454.560.162.256.650.759.343.166.1
1991120.7122.5119.997.8132.8129.4127.4129.8102.2106.2
199588.577.093.4118.778.683.583.283.947.893.6
199677.988.278.094.888.870.976.969.8100.282.372.285.4
199781.885.580.786.976.280.689.777.671.885.792.582.2
199871.858.475.986.848.666.757.270.1
(12-monlh changes; in percent)
1997
January78.088.275.181.391.874.683.571.9107.375.769.580.0
February78.688.675.778.593.377.487.674.289.177.777.178.0
March77.076.077.284.482.773.373.673.283.977.378.176.9
April72.863.275.783.972.068.260.271.073.977.282.378.8
May74.668.376.485.966.370.467.971.272.377.580.779.5
June75.771.676.986.972.971.972.571.766.978.084.179.2
July80.787.878.684.473.680.694.975.964785.293.081.4
August83.492.080.884.477.684.610.479.263.487.893.083.4
September85.495.082.585.378.787.1103.981.463.989.898.882.7
October87.593.785.688.871.988.9102.684.366.893.2105.184.0
November88.492.887.094.571.687.8100.883.470.195.8108.987.7
December91.097.589.096.572.691.2108.585.464.199.1117.388.0
1998
January92.589.093.6111.261.988.498.884.964.9101.6119.692.2
February89.681.692.0110.055.384.388.982.966.799.3112.192.8
March86.079.487.998.758.282.784.981.968.997.2102.594.6
April83.378.381.790.360.281.882.781.470.893.691.592.0
May79.972.082.188.161.077.373.878.672.491.487.493.9
June76.769.578.882.854.275.170.976.574.790.684.094.4
July72.155.577.286.350.567.152.472.477.185.382.090.3
August67.449.473.482.745.661.743.168.780.981.475.186.8
September65.948.271.685.441.058.944.264.576.980.476.889.1
October62.045.067.381.143.954.740.460.071.476.671.790.2
November58.641.563.975.536.652.237.757.666.072.865.686.8
December54.335.660.171.934.047.129.853.669.969.760.686.8
1999
January50.036.953.959.433.945.832.350.662.865.958.682.9
February48.339.750.752.639.845.834.749.563.163.955.081.3
March48.245.948.949.441.047.112.548.663.363.555.580.4
April50.053.249.250.151.649.250.848.763.263.958.383.7
May50.058.147.845.861.350.855.849.163.663.053.184.1
June50.362.347.143.158.752.561.649.663.664.351.286.4
May52.474.146.539.458.457.377.450.869.265.049.687.7
August53.779.246.739.665.858.883.950.861.165.447.989.7
September54.481.047.137.071.961.185.153.062.764.344.388.8
October55.286.146.935.274.463.090.954.066.164.746.089.7
Source: State Institute of Statistics.

Entirely private sector.

Predominantly public.

Entirely sector manufacturing WPI account for 75 percent of the total manufacturing WPL

Entirely public sector.

Accounts for 31 percent of the CTI

Accounts for 26 percent of the CTI.

Source: State Institute of Statistics.

Entirely private sector.

Predominantly public.

Entirely sector manufacturing WPI account for 75 percent of the total manufacturing WPL

Entirely public sector.

Accounts for 31 percent of the CTI

Accounts for 26 percent of the CTI.

Table 13.Turkey: Labor Market Developments, 1991–98 1/
19911992199319941995199619971998
(In percent)
Participation rate56.255.754.354.754.784.651.751.3
Urban45.847.046.046.244.944.643.943.2
Male73.776.474.574.573.272.771.871.9
Female15.617.317.217.416.515.916.415.8
Rural67.765.864.164.966.667.161.962.0
Male82.782.480.682.083.083.380.979.3
Female53.750.148.748.831.251.743.645.1
Unemployment rate7.98.17.78.16.96.06.46.3
Urban12.111.90.611.810.29.29.49.9
Male10.110.09.510.08.63.07.68.6
Female22.020.520.619.717.614.716.815.8
Rural4.74.94.45.04.23.43.63.0
Male6.26.26.26.45.44.44.03.7
Female2.42.91.82.62.21.82.81.9
Underemployment rate6.97.86.98.26.76.35.65.9
Rate of unemployment and unemployment and underemplo14.815.814.616.313.612.312.012.2
(In percent of total employment)
Agriculture47.443.544.544.846.844.941.941.3
Industry15.716.815.816.415.315.917.216.8
Mining1.00.90.80.90.70.80.80.7
Manufacturing industry14.415.514.015.014.014.715.915.5
Electricity, gas, and water0.30.30.50.50.50.40.60.5
Services36.839.739.738.838.839.140.940.9
Construction5.55.66.25.85.86.06.26.1
Transportation4.34.64.84.44.14.34.34.5
Commerce11.512.612.512.412.512.613.713.6
Financial institutions2.32.52.32.42.22.32.52.4
Other services13.314.514.013.813.313.914.314.4
Source: Stale Planning Organization.

Based on results of the State Institute of Statistics’ Household Labor Force Survey (revised series).

Source: Stale Planning Organization.

Based on results of the State Institute of Statistics’ Household Labor Force Survey (revised series).

Table 14.Turkey: Labor Market Developments, 1991–98 1/
19911992199319941995199619971998
(In thousands)
Total population57,06457,59153,81259,76666,61461,53662,51063,451
Urban31,33932,32733,34734,39935,48336,60237,75738,948
Rural23,72525,26425,46525,30725,13124,93424,75324,503
Total population In the 15+ age group36,43637,07238,46239,43740,07540,74442,33143,926
Urban19,21619,81620,67321,39822,12322,74623,90825,082
Male9,6759,96110,39510,77411,08811,49011,87612,263
Female9,5419,85510,27810,62411,03511,25612,03212,819
Rural17,22017,25617,58917,73917,93217,99818,42318,844
Male8,3298,3748,4968,6268,7218,7949,0379,279
Female8,8918,8829,0939,1139,2319,2049,3869,565
Civilian labor force20,46920,66520,78321,40421,90722,23621,89922,513
Urban8,8099,3159,5099,8839,94210,15110,49610,837
Male7,3207,6107,7418,0318,1168,3568,5238,812
Female1,4891,7051,7681,8521,8261,7951,9732,025
Rural11,66011,35011,27411,52111,96512,08511,40311,676
Male6,8866,9006,8447,0767,2357,3237,3147,359
Female4,7744,4504,4304,4454,7304,7624,0894,317
Civilian employment18,86019,00119,18119,66520,39520,89420,50521,085
Urban7,7438,2078,4088,7158,9279,2169,5139,761
Male6,5816,8517,0057,2287,4227,6847,8728,056
Female1,1621,3561,4031,4871,5051,5321,6411,705
Rural11,11710,79410,77310,95011,46811,67810,99211,324
Male6,4586,4726,4236,6216,8417,0027,0197,089
Female4,6594,3224,3504,3294,6274,6763,9734,238
Unemployment1,6091,6641,6011,7391,5121,3421,3941,428
Underemployment1,4151,6091,4391,7561,4741,4011,2371,324
Civilian employment by sector:
Agriculture8,94884638,5398,8079,5389,3798,5848,918
Industry2,9633,1953,0303,4233,1113,3273,5293,536
Mining185177144175148174161154
Manufacturing industry2,7152,9532,7832,9482,8543,0833,2543,267
Electricity, gas, and water636510310010990114115
Services6,9497,5437,6127,6357,7468,1888,3928,631
Construction1,0291,0661,1831,1501,1771,2641,2691,277
Transportation805866921863840893885957
Commerce2,1742,3852,3892,4472,5552,6342,8112,860
Financial institutions430474443471458484504511
Other services2,8112,7522,6762,7042,7162,9132,9233,026
Source: State Planning Organization.

Based on results of the State Institute of Statistics’ Household Labor Force Survey (revised series).

Source: State Planning Organization.

Based on results of the State Institute of Statistics’ Household Labor Force Survey (revised series).

Table 15.Turkey: Wages and Labor Costs, 1991–98
19911992199319941995199619971998
Provisional
(In Turkish liras per day)
Minimum wage 1/19,17535,70062,863101,375185,750400,750822,9381,353,500
Minimum wage (end-of-Period)26,70048,30083,250139,125282,000567,0001,181,2501,594,650
Private sector 2/
Base wage72,030127,208212,115349,583588,8181,097,9102,000,3033,880,590
Gross wage148,680260,573440,775726,9751,204,4402,243,7304,056,6607,875,263
Total labor coat203,490341,963577,635936,0451,468,6882,732,5205,063,8289,722,550
Net wage93,578165,105282,443486,135838,9811,549,3502,762,8735,660,108
Public sectors 3/
Base wage72,030127,208212,115349,583588,8181,097,9102,323,3674,215,000
Gross wage133,500210,567429,600839,6671,279,7331,770,5004,030,6007,096,333
Total labor cost164,000291,233520,3331,019,6331,485,9672,053,0334,836,7338,352,400
Net wag:82,767149,200267,767552,067885,7001,193,3672,653,3674,878,667
Civil servants
Net salary41,35780,010135,735218,550403,057782,1221,691,9823,082,721
Labor cost70,598128,456214,625328,687602,0701,207,9032,543,1194,518,545
(Percentage change)
Minimum wage 1/89.486.276.162.183.3114.6105.364.5
Private sector 2/
Gross wage136.775.369.264.965.786.380.894.1
Labor cost144.868.068.962.056.986.188.391.0
Public sector 3/
Gross wage148.980.278.695.552.438.3127.776.1
Labor cost142.877.675.796.045.738.2135.672.7
Civil servants
Net salary77.993.563.661.084.494.0116.382.2
Labor cost72.362.067.153.183.2100.6110.577.7
Consumer price index66.070.166.1106.393.682.385.784.6
(Index: 1989 = 100)
Real wages 4/
Minimum wage 1/129.2141.4150.0117.8111.5131.3145.2129.3
Private sector gross wage127.8131.7134.1107.291.793.791.395.9
Public sector gross wage182.7193.5208.1597.1155.2117.8144.4137.7
Civil servants’ net salary123.3140.3143.2111.8106.5113.4132.0130.3
(Percentage changes)
Real wages 4/
Minimum wage 1/14.19.56.0-21.4-5.317.710.6-10.9
Private sector gross wage43.63.01.6-20.1-14.42.2-2.75.1
Public sector gross wage49.9597.5-5.3-21.3-24.122.6-4.6
Civil servants’ net salary7.213.72.1-22.0-4.16.416.5-1.3
Real wages (in U.S. dollars per day)
Minimum wage 1/4.605.195.723.434.094.955.435.20
Private sector gross wage35.6437.9240.1324.5026.3727.6926.7530.24
Public sector gross wage32.0035.0039.1128.3028.0221.8526.5827.25
Civil servants’ net salary9.9111.6412.367.378.829.6511.1611.84
Memorandum item:
Average TL/US$4,1726,87210,98529,67045,67881,035151,628260,403
Source: State Planning Organization.

Average over the calendar year. (The minimum wage set each year is effective from September to the following August.)

Represents only the wages of workers covered by collective labor agreements.

Based on data provided by the Public Sector Employers’ Union

Nominal wages deflated by the consumer price index.

Source: State Planning Organization.

Average over the calendar year. (The minimum wage set each year is effective from September to the following August.)

Represents only the wages of workers covered by collective labor agreements.

Based on data provided by the Public Sector Employers’ Union

Nominal wages deflated by the consumer price index.

Table 16.Turkey: Wage Contracts in Selected Sectors in the Private Sector
SectorDurationWage IncreasesNumber of Workers
Basic metals industry1.9.1998–31.8.20001st 6 months: 43% (22% + 11000–74000 TL/hr wage)

2nd 6 months: percentage increase in CPI during the previous 6 months

3rd 6 months: percentage increase in CPI during the previous 6 months

4th 6 months: percentage increase in CPI during the previous 6 months
85,000
Textile1.9.1998–31.8.20001st 6 months: 45%

2nd 6 months: 30%

3rd 6 months: percentage increase in CPI during the previous 6 months

4th 6 months: percentage increase in CPI during the previous 6 months
60,000
Paper printing1.9.1998–31.8.2000n.a.3,000
Cement1.1.1998–31.12.19991st yean 105%

2nd year:

1st 6 months: percentage increase in CPI during the previous 6 months +10 points 2nd 6 months: percentage increase in CPI during the previous 6 months + 10 points
7,500
Glass Industry1.1.1999–31.12.2000For tie base wages:

1st 6 months: 31%

2nd 6 months: percentage increase in CPI during the previous 6 months

3rd 6 months: percentage increase in CPI during the previous 6 months

4th 6 months: percentage increase in CPI during the previous 6 months

For the fringe benefits:

1st year: 70 - 90%

2nd year: percentage increase in CPI during the previous year
6,200
Leather1.3.1999–28.2.2001For the base wages:

1st year: 76%

2nd year: percentage increase in CPI during the previous year

For the fringe benefits:

1st year: 90%

2nd year; inflation rate in the CPI during the previous year
1,000
Constructionn.a.n.a.n.a.
Chemistry1.1.1999–31.12.2000At the negotiation stage.7,000
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.
Table 17:Turkey-Balance of Payments, 1993–1999(In millions of US dollars)
1993199419951996199719981999
III
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE-5,7663,698-806-2,433-2,7501,872-259
Trade balance-12,160-1,016-8,612-10,582-15,466-14,332-4,418
Exports (fob)17,61121,59026,57532,44632,63131,22013,537
of which; Exports (fob) in trade returns15,34518,10621,63623,22526,24526,97312,382
Shuttle trade2,0003,2004,6008,8425,8493,689683
Imports (fob)-29,771-22,606-35,187-43,028-48,097-45,552-17,955
of which: Imports (cif)-29,428-23,270-35,709-43,627-48,657-45,935-18,220
Services (net)2,6261,6223,3103,7027,85010,4771,567
Services (credit)10,4559,55813,02714,63221,27325,8029,109
of which: Interest1,1358901,4881,5771,9002,4811,161
Tourism receipts3,9594,3214,9575,6507,0027,1771,791
Services (debit)-7,829-7,936-9,717-10,930-13,423-18,325-7,542
of which: Interest-3,574-3,923-4,303-4,200-4,588-4,823-2,713
Private transfers (net)3,0352,7093,4253,8924,5525,5682,471
of which: Workers remittances2,9192,5273,3273,5424,1975,3562,379
Official transfers (net)7333831,071555314159121
CAPITAL ACCOUNT BALANCE8,736-4,2174,5488,7618,7355452,592
(including errors and omissions)6,074-3,1525,8116,9806,213-1,6523,797
Direct investment622559772612701573265
Portfolio investment in securities1901,0591,338-761-140-5,8071,120
Public sector (including Central Bank of Turkey)3,032-5706387001,054-1,221-174
Public sector (excluding Central Bank of Turkey)1,866-2,365-1,190-698-105-1,68374
Borrowing (net)1866-2365-1190-698-105-1,93374
Disbursements (bonds and loans)4,2841,0863,0343,5793,9603,8682,674
Repayments (bonds and loans)-2,418-3,451-4,224-4,277-4,065-5,801-2,600
Bonds (net)37214118091,4911,353-2611,124
Disbursements375972123112,8042,8982,7062,276
Repayments-38-310-1502-1,313-1,545-2,967-1,152
Loans (net)-1855-2776-1999-2,189-1,458-1,672-1,050
Disbursements5253657237751,0621,162398
Repayments-2380-3141-2722-2,964-2,520-2,834-1,448
Central Bank of Turkey (net)1,1661,7951,8281,3981,159462-248
Domestic money banks (net)1,270-4,924734,3341,6771,935-650
Domestic money banks (FX reserves, -: accumulation)-2,8942,451-2,0301,510-678-75261
Domestic money banks (other, net)4,164-7,3752,1032,8242,3552,687-711
Domestic money banks (medium and long-term, net)199-594628862,081511-541
Domestic money banks (short-term, net)3,965-6,7812,0411,9382742,176-170
Other private sector (net)3,622-3411,7273,8765,44353152,031
Other private sector (medium and long-term, net)2,1079591851,5063,4874,176474
Other private sector (short-term, net)1,515-1,3001,5422,3701,9561,1391,557
Errors and omissions (including correction for shuttle trade)-2,6621,0651,263-1,781-2,522-2,1971,205
OVERALL BALANCE3085465,0654,5473,4632203,538
Change in official reserves (-; accumulation)-308-546-5,005-4,547-3,463-220-3,538
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 18.Turkey: Estimate of the Shuttle Trade and Implications for the Balance of Payments, 1996–98
199619971998
Estimate

without Shuttle

Trade
Adjusted for

Estimate

of Shuttle trade
Estimate

without Shuttle

Trade
Adjusted for

Estimate

of Shuttle trade
Estimate

without Shuttle

Trade
Adjusted for

Estimate

of Shuttle trade
Current account-5,380-2,433-4,738-2,7506181,872
Trade balance-19,424-10,582-21,315-15,466-18,021-14,332
Exports23,60432,44626,78232,63127,53131,220
Imports-43.028-43,028-48,097-48,097-45,552-45,552
Services9,5973,70311,7107,85012,91210,477
Capital account9,7638,7619,4118,735972545
Long-term capital2,8182,8186,9746,974-2,057-2,057
Short-term capital6,9455,9432,4371,7613,0292,602
Errors and ommissions164-1,781-1,209-2,522-1,370-2,197
Overall balance4,5474,5473,4633,463220220
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 19.Turkey: Foreign Trade, Value, and Volume, 1991–98
19911992199319941995199619971998
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Exports, f.o.b. 1/13,59314,71515,34518,10621,63723,22426,26126,973
Imports, c.i.f. 2/21,04722,87129,42923,27035,70943,62648,55845,934
Consumption goods2,8792,9714,1162,7804,4156,6207,1275,325
Capital goods6,0516,7729,5656,89510,48813,25713,22710,651
Intermediate goods12,11713,12815,74713,59620,80723,74928,20429,959
Oil2,4562,6322,5492,4333,0173,4173,4902,083
Other9,66110,49613,19711,16317,79020,33224,71327,876
(Percent change from previous year)
Total exports
Value4.98.34.318.019.57.313.02.8
Price 3/-0.91.3-2.8-3.713.6-5.5-4.7-4.0
Volume 4/6.73.06.414.83.82.213.56.0
Total imports 2/
Value-5.68.728.7-20.953.518.911.5-5.6
Price 3/-3.1-1.9-6.20.917.21.0-8.7-4.1
Volume 4/-3.91.737.0-21.528.320.023.6-4.6
Oil and oil products imports
Value-20.92.33.7-5.325.022.913.3-40.3
Price-20.6-1.6-14.8-2.17.611.7-6.9-33.5
Volume-0.44.021.7-3.316.2-2.2-3.11.6
Non-oil imports 2/
Value-1.99.933.2-23.158.422.112.3-2.9
Price1.0-1.8-4.61.418.60.2-6.8-2.0
Volume-2.911.939.7-24.233.632.225.9-4.8
Terms of trade2.33.23.6-4.5-3.1-5.34.40.0
Source: State Institute of Statistics.

Excluding transit trade.

Excluding transit trade and nonmonetary gold.

Price indices are estimated by the State Institute of Statistics.

Volume indices are estimated by the State Institute of Statistics.

Source: State Institute of Statistics.

Excluding transit trade.

Excluding transit trade and nonmonetary gold.

Price indices are estimated by the State Institute of Statistics.

Volume indices are estimated by the State Institute of Statistics.

Table 20.Turkey: Real Effective Exchange Rate Indices, 1991–99(Base 1992=100)
Real Exchange Rate

INS
Real Exchange Rate

CPI based
Real Exchange Rate

WPI based
Real Exchange Rate

Private Manufacturing
Relative

Unit Labor Cost

Staff Rebased
1991102.2101.098.798.1120.2
199298.496.692.289.998.7
1993107.0101.894.092.697.9
199480.376.275.476.966.4
199585.785.682.982.966.4
199687.788.583.880.170.1
199793.491.386.981.172.2
1998101.397.289.782.778.8
1999 1/105.4100.287.179.784.2
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

As of the second quarter of 1999.

Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

As of the second quarter of 1999.

Table 21.Turkey: Commodity Composition of Exports, 1994–98 1/
199419951996199719981994199519961997199819941995199619971998
In millions of U.S. dollarsPercent of totalPercent change from year earlier
Agriculture and livestock2,4572,3072,7082,9472,96913.610.711.711.211.03.9-6.117.48.80.7
Crops2,0822,0852,4732,6732,74811.59.610.610.210.23.40.118.68.12.8
Hazelnuts4365864456225792.42.71.92.42.15.634.4-24.139.8-6.9
Raisins1761902072242141.00.90.90.90.831.38.08.98.2-4.5
Tobacco3952455425655902.21.12.32.22.2-0.3-38.0121.2+.24.4
Cotton3166555550.20.00.30.20.2-78.6-80.6983.3-15.40.0
Others1,0441,0581,2141,2071,3105.84.95.24.64.912.71.314.7-0.68.5
Livestock products2451551701951711.40.70.70.70.6-16.7-36.79.714.7-12.3
Fishery products53545971420.30.20.30.30.220.51.99.320.3-40.8
Forestry16136880.10.10.00.00.014.3-18.8-53.833.30.0
Mining and quarry products2724063894243851.51.91.71.61.413.949.1-4.29.0-9.2
Industrial products15,37718,92420,12722,89023,61984.987.586.787.287.620.723.16.413.73.2
Processed agricultural products1,7652,2142,1182,3971,9419.710.29.19.17.228.925.4-4.313.2-19.0
Textiles6,2868,1588,5289,71110,35334.737.736.737.038.416.029.84.513.96.6
Forestry products41586266610.20.30.30.30.278.341.56.96.5-7.6
Hides and leather products5605974345124553.12.81.91.91.71.46.6-27.318.0-11.1
Chemicals5767128239539273.23.33.53.63.423.123.615.615.8-2.7
Rubber and plastic4505556117187742.52.62.62.72.916.923.310.117.57.8
Petroleum products2352772741892541.31.31.20.70.936.617.9-1.1-31.034.4
Cement1451411351711580.80.70.60.70.661.1-2.8-4.326.7-7.6
Glass and ceramics4315446217367612.42.52.72.82.813.426.214.218.53.4
Nonferrous metal2153443844524801.21.61.71.71.824.360.011.617.76.2
Iron and steel2,3692,2572,2562,5992,25213.110.49.79.98.317.7-4.10.015.2-13.4
Metal prod. & machinery5917648841,0641,1643.33.53.84.14.350.429.315.720.49.4
Electrical appliances6829141,3281,4491,8473.84.25.75.56.820.534.045.39.127.5
Motor vehicles5038189911,0221,1592.83.84.33.94.332.462.221.43.113.4
Other5285736788511,0332.92.62.93.23.847.48.618.325.521.4
Total exports18,10621,63723,22426,26126,973100.0100.0100.0100.0100.018.019.57.313.12.7
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

It Exports f.o.b., excluding transit trade.

Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

It Exports f.o.b., excluding transit trade.

Table 22.Turkey: Geographical Distribution of Exports, 1995–98(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Percentage of totalPercentage change

from a year earlier
199519961997199819951996199719981995199619971998
OECD countries13,21314,42715,54613,74261.162.159.250.922.89.27.8-11.6
EC countries11,07111,54912,23613,49851.249.746.650.028.24.35.910.3
France1,0331,0531,1631,3044.84.54.44.821.41.910.4121
Germany3,0345,1875,2535,46023.322.320.020.228.03.01.33.9
Italy1,4561,4461,3881,5576.76.25.35.840.8-0.7-4.012.2
United kingdom1,1351,2611,5051,7395.25.45.76.427.711.119.315.5
Others2,4132,6022,9273,43811.211.211.112.725.27.812.517.5
Other OECD countries2,1422,8783,3103,1249.912.412.611.60.934.415.0-5.6
Switzerland2382763182441.11.21.20.9-0.416.015.2-23.3
United slates1,5161,6392,1202,2337.07.18.18.3-0.38.129.35.3
Others3889638726471.84.13.32.46.6148.2-9.4-25.8
Eastern Europe and FSU3,3533,3294,3374,98915.514.316.518.545.5-0.730.315.0
Middle East and
North African countries3,2652,9923,2463,95515.112.912.414.77.0-8.48.521.8
Egypt2453163044741.11.41.21.825.629.0-3.355.9
Islamic Rep of Iran2662983071941.21.31.20.76.412.03.0-36.8
Iraq119---0.5----15.6---
Kuwait119107126890.50.50.50.3-7.0-10.117.8-29.4
Libya238244187951.11.10.70.433.02.5-23.4-49.2
Saudi Arabia4674315344722.21.92.01.7-23.3-7.723.9-11.6
Other MENA1,8111,5961,7882,6318.46.96.89.816.8-11.912.047.1
Other countries1,8062,4763,1321,4138.310.711.95.2-9.337.126.5-54.9
Total exports21,63723,22426,26126,979100.0100.0100.0100.019.57.313.12.7
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.
Table 23.Turkey: Commodity Composition of Imports, 1994–98
199419951996199719981994199519961997199819941995199619971998
In millions of U.S. dollarsPercent of totalPercent change from year earlier
Agriculture and livestock1,2092,4442,9553,1712,6665.26.86.86.55.8-27.3102.220.97.3-15.9
Mining Mid quarry product2,9693,4784,2984,1382,94212.89.79.98.56.48.317.123.6-3.7-28.9
Crude oil2,4322,9193,4173,1942,08310.58.27.86.64.58.120.017.1-6.5-34.8
Others5375598819448592.31.62.01.91.99.44.157.67.2-9.0
Industrial products19,09229,78736,37341,24940,32682.083.483.484.987.8-23.756.022.113.4-2.2
Processed agricultural products1,0291,8051,3671,2111,1454.45.1312.52.5-19.675.4-24.3-11.4-5.5
Textiles1,1361,8482,5352,8252,7964.95.25.85.85.17.962.737.211.4-1.0
Forestry products294789871140.10.10.20.20.2-27.562.189.4-2.231.0
Hides and leather products1862453153212520.80.70.70.70.53.931.723.61.9-21.5
Chemicals2,6474,2884,5464,9925,11511.412.010.410.311.1-11.262.06.09.82.5
Petroleum products9741,3741,8712,3191,9004.2384.34.84.1-9.441.136.223.9-18.1
Rubber and plastic1,0031,7802,1572,4132,4274.35.04.95.05.3-13.277.521.211.90.6
Cement1213714190.10.00.00.00.0-33.383-46.2100.035.7
Glass and ceramics1793004043774290.80.80.90.80.9-17.567.634.7-6.713.8
Nonferrous metals4438239431,1141,0031.92.32.22.32.2-5.785.814.618.1-10.0
Iron and steel2,4013,5343,4063,7233,43210.39.97.87.77.8-22.347.2-3.69.3-7.8
Metal products and machinery3,7245,6548,7639,4458,92816.015.820.119.519.4-30.951.855.07.8-5.5
Electrical appliances1,7672,1382,9663,8494,4027.66.06.87.99.6-12.221.038.729.814.4
Motor vehicles2,1623,6354,3945,7014,8869.310.210.111.710.6-46.668.120.929.7-14.3
Others1,4002,3032,6102,8583,4786.06.46.05.97.6-30.664.513.39.521.7
Total imports23,27035,70943,62648,55845,934100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0-20.953.522.211.3-5.4
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.1/ Imports c.i.f., excluding me monetary gold and transit trade.
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.1/ Imports c.i.f., excluding me monetary gold and transit trade.
Table 24.Turkey: Geographical Distribution of Imports, 1995–98(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Percentage of totalPercentage change

from a year earlier
199519961997199819951996199719981995199619971998
OECD countries23,69531,09234,77932,31666.271.371.670.454.631.211.9-7.1
KC countries16,86123,13824,83424,08847.153051.152.454.537.27.3-3.0
France1,9562,7712,9643,0345.66.46.16.636.938.87.02.4
Germany5,5487,8148,0107,31615.517.916.515.952.240.82.5-8.7
Italy3,1934,2864,4564,2358.99.89.29.258.934.24.0-5.0
United kingdom1,8302,5102,7582,6835.15.85.75.856.437.29.9-2.7
Others4,2945,7576,6466,82012.013.213.714.863.134.115.42.6
Other OECD countries6,8347,9549,9458,22819.118.220.517.954.816.425.0-17.3
Switzerland8161,0151,0971,0172.32.32.32.272.524.48.1-7.3
United states3,7243,5164,3454,05310.48.15.93.853.5-5.623.6-6.7
Others2,2943,4234,5033,1586.47.89.36.951.249.231.6-29.9
Eastern Europe and KSU4,5403,9794,5244,92312.79.19.310.776.0-12.413.78.8
Middle East and4,3205,5634,5173,71312.112.89.38.128.128.8-18.8-17.8
North African countries
Egypt2112723933920.60.60.80.970.228.944.5-0.3
Islamic Rep of Iran6908066464331.91.81.30.9-0.416.8-19.9-33.0
Kuwait91104171800.30.20.40.226.07.264.4-53.2
Libya3854765333421.11.11.10.720.323.6120-35.8
Saudi Arabia1,3331,7081,0176693.93.92.11.512.523.5-40.5-34.2
Others1,5542,1971,7571,7974.35.03.63.967.341.4-20.02.3
Other countries3,2532,9924,7384,9829.16.99.810.863.7-8.058.45.1
Total exports35,80843,62648,55845,934100.0100.0100.0100.053.921.811.3-5.4
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.
Table 25.Turkey: Long-Term Capital Flows, 1993–99(In millions of US dollars)
1993199419951996199719981999
Q2
Total long-term capital5,9099332,4172,8187,002-1,8261,159
Direct investment622559772612701573173
Portfolio investment3,9171,1581,7245701,634-6,3861,333
of which: Bond issues (net)3,727993861,3311,774-5791,018
Other long-term capital1,370-784-791,6364,6673,987-347
Resident official sector-930-1,461-537-916-480-1,018-447
(including central bank)
Drawings5253657237751,0621,162152
Dresdner deposits9251,3151,4621,27397865482
Amortizations-2,380-3,141-2,722-2,964-2,520-2,834-681
Domestic money banks (net)193-2822731,0461,660829-236
Drawings6823525001,4392,4783,126234
Amortizations689-634-227-393-818-2,297-470
Other sectors (including private)2,1079591851,5063,4874,176336
Drawings3,6502,6322,9033,8346,2447,2161,469
Amortizations-1,543-1,673-2,718-2,328-2,757-3,040-1,133
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 26.Turkey: Short-term Capital Flows, 1993–99(In millions of US dollars)
1993199419951996199719981999
Q2
Short-term capital3,054-5,1272,3056,9452,4373,029801
Assets-3,2912,423-1,7911,331-1,074-1,036-147
Credits extended abroad (net)-289-38293-125-358-260-255
Central Bank of Turkey (net)48-28-48-63-60-70-19
Deposit money banks (net)-337-10341-62-298-190-236,
FX reserve holdings (DMBs - increase of reserves)-2,8942,451-2,0301,510-678-752104
Other assets-10810-54-54-38-244
Liabilities6,345-7,5504,0965,6143,5114,065948
Central Bank of Turkey193168279188269109-21
Of which: Dresdner deposits1441151016349-80-21
Deposit money banks4,302-6,7711,7002,0005722,366633
FX deposit accounts (nonresidential)520-1708991,231-1522,303-194
FX credits (net of repayments)3,782-6,60180176972463827
Other sectors1,850-9472,1173,4262,6701,590336
Trade credits (net)2,244-8161,6713,4192,0841,171341
FX credits (net)-394-1314467586419-5
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 27.Turkey: Foreign Direct Investment, 1982–99(In millions of US dollars)
PermitsRealization
AnnualCumulativeInflowOutflowNet
19821678301034855
1983103933874146
19842711,20416249113
19852351,4391565999
19863641,80317045125
19876552,45817165106
19888213,27938733354
19891,5124,79173875663
19901,8616,65278888700
19911,9678,619910127783
19921,82010,439912133779
19932,12512,564797175622
19941,48514,04963778559
19952,93816,987935163772
19963,83720,824937325612
19971,67822,502873319554
19981,64524,147982409573
1999 1/42524,57221412292
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

As of the first quarter of 1999.

Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

As of the first quarter of 1999.

Table 28.Turkey: External Debt, 1996–99(In million of US dollars; end-of-period)
1996199719981999
Q1Q2
(By creditor)
Total outstanding debt83,96391,109103,956101,599100,058
Short-term20,51722,63427,23627,54827,902
Medium- and long-term63,44668,47576,72074,05172,156
Short-term20,51722,63427,23627,54827,902
Commercial banks4,9405,9696,5117,2147,047
Private lenders15,57716,66520,72520,33420,855
Medium- and long-term63,44668,47576,72074,05172,156
Official creditors17,92016,47616,88914,52914,086
Bilateral lenders8,8528,2558,3348,2798,098
Central banks2816282928
Central governments4,1703,6993,5613,3513,202
Official financial institutions3,6893,2513,4503,1163,039
Official inv. and development banks9651,2891,7951,7831,829
Multilateral organizations9,0688,2218,0556,2505,988
European investment bank419494599265259
European resettlement Kind2,6762,2272,1761,065966
Islamic development bank266275301291286
Int. Fund for agricultural development118665
International finance corporation7619971,2291,1941,227
International development association122115109109106
International bank for reconst. and dev.4,1523,5103,2473,0232,922
International monetary fund661595388297217
Private creditors45,52651,99959,83159,32258,070
Private lenders32,44538,26845,25444,32643,059
Commercial banks15,27319,44622,96722,81022,249
Nonbank financial institutions3,6635,2946,1466,0945,965
Non-monetary institutions2,2352,4563,3353,3663,380
Off-shore banks5297801,0991,062996
Private inv. and development banks1111111111
Individuals66788
Dresdner account10,72010,26711,68110,96710,442
NGTA88888
Bond issue13,08113,73114,57715,19615,011
(by borrower)
Total outstanding debt83,96291,110103,955101,396100,056
Short-term20,51722,63427,2362734827,902
Medium- and long-term63,44568,47676,71974,04872,154
Short-term20,51712,63427,23627,34827,902
CBRT984839905838778
CBRT loans423071313
Dresdner ban scheme942859898825765
Deposit money banks8,4198,50311,15911,54010,873
Other sectors11,11413,24215,17215,17016,251
Medium- and long-term63,44568,47676,71974,04872,154
Public sector40,70239,76840,90038,92938,049
General government36,34335,31236,54734,91434,176
Central government32,40731,54832,89531,43630,802
Treasury loans17,24717,26917,87018,02417,782
Onlending and allocated12,75611,98012,62211,18310,746
Annexed budget2,4042,2992,4032,2292,274
Local administration2,7742,7762,8382,6982,675
Extrabudgetary funds1,146979804771692
Universities1691097
Other public sectors1,085939686646571
State owned enterprises3,2743,5173,6673,3693,302
Financial SOEs157420534518503
Nonfinancial SOEs3,1173,0973,1332,8512,799
CBRT10,72810,27311,68510,97110,445
CBRT loans86443
Dresdner bank scheme10,72010,26711,68110,96710,442
Private sector12,01518,43524,13424,14823,660
Financial3,3765,6026,6646,4836,076
Banks2,2583,7754,2714,1483,845
Nonbank financial enterprises1,1181.8272,3932,3352,231
Nonfinancial8,63912,83317,47017,66517,584
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.
Table 29.Turkey: External Debt Service, 1992–98(In millions of US dollars)
1992199319941995199619971998
Total external debt service8,7338,2279,99311,89711,41812,39016,279
Interest debits3,4393,5743,9234,3034,2004,5814,823
Medium end Long-term debt repayments5,2944,6536,0707,5947,2187,80211,456
Current account receipts (excluding official transfers)28,79031,10133,85743,02750,97058,45662,590
Debt service ratio30.326.529.527.622.421.226.0
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Data provided by the Turkish authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 30.Turkey: Monetary Survey, 1994–99(In billions of Turkish liras)
19941995199619971998Jun-99
Net foreign assets184,213397,306777,9561,570,2231,799,8143,539,452
Central bank-25,300119,465633,6161,752,1002,743,8365,135,226
Deposit money banks209,513277,841144,339-181,877-944,022-1,595,774
Net domestic assets1,113,4552,280,8794,929,68810,851,11820,066,15226,877,715
Domestic credit1,015,7892,242,7635,093,35611,084,57919,501,86029,288,472
Claims an the central government (net)4693971,074,1282,591,1855,562,7599,462,79015,878,181
Central bank175,972421,458612,054123,8994,845-122,067
Short-term credits122,278192,000370,953337,62300
Government securities75,098329,168457,139605,111797,839514,122
Government’s deposits21,40399,710216,039818,835792,994636,190
In Turkish lire9,98913,66543,869245,668274,201211,765
In foreign exchange11,41486,044172,170573,167518,794424,425
Deposit money banks190,719394,0731,457,5223,301,3787,203,21512,530,001
Credits18820,52512,53821,75214,75610,235
Bilk and bonds146,233252,822874,6791,842,6423,742,1407,121,262
Duty loss accounts54,498103,158387,533897,9994,051,5666,412,994
Deposits31,78866,113217,626386,862605,2481,014,498
Repos102,705258,597521,6092,137,4822,254,7313,470,247
Claims on other public sector (net)-3,541-104,353-299,960-804,795-1,454,169-492,858
Extrabudgetary funds-41,139-64,727-110,022-591,678-1,031,184-1,587,496
Central bank 1/-2,853-14,864-46,651-162,327-164,222-216,664
Deposit money banks-38,286-49,863-63,371-429,351-866,962-1,370,832
Local government-8,347-16,523-57,323-113,768-152,910-139,551
Central bank-1,082-2,405-4,007-5,646-15,671-10,884
Deposit money banks-7,265-14,117-53,316-108,123-137,239-128,667
Non-financial state enterprises45,945-23,104-132,616-99,349-270,0761,234,189
Central hank23,291-10,748-36,652-109,288-132,6531,264,460
Deposit money banks22,653-12,357-95,9649,939-137,423-30,271
Claims on the private sector549,9331,272,9872,802,1326,326,61411, 493,23913,903,149
Credit in lira341,758789,5551,555,5433,413,4196,625,7428,165,550
Credit in foreign exchange 2/208,174483,4331,246,5892,913,1954,867,4973,737,599
Other items net97,66738,117-163,668-233,461564,292-2,410,757
Broad liquidity1,297,6692,678,1855,707,64412,421,34121,865,96630,417,167
M2X1,194,9642,419,5885,186,03510,283,85919,611,23526,946,920
M2633,0891,273,7692,776,4445,390,04210,956,93514,999,365
Currency outside banks100,085185,689309,895589,2271,016,0101,190,954
Demand deposits105,360160,966379,640697,7321,109,2731,184,109
Time and savings deposits423,011920,1962,075,7014,102,9238,831,63712,624,286
Certificates of deposits4,6336,91911,2081601616
Residents’ foreign exchange deposits561,8751,145,8192,409,5914,893,8188,654,30011,947,555
Repos102,705258,597521,6092,137,4822,254,7313,470,247
Source: Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Turkey.

Includes deposits of the Saving Deposits Insurance Fund.

Source: Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Turkey.

Includes deposits of the Saving Deposits Insurance Fund.

Table 31.Turkey: Accounts of the Monetary Authorities, 1994–99(In billions of Turkish lira)
19941995199619971998Jun-99
Net foreign assets-25,300119,465633,6161,752,1002,743,8365135226
Foreign assets372,835888,7722,028,8484,260,0316,895,74210029747
Foreign liabilities398,135769,3071,395,2312,507,9314,151,9064394521
Net domestic assets305,794383,681328,624176,002731,301-583643
Claims on the central government (net)175,971411,458612,054113,8994,845-122047
Short-tern credits122,278192,000370,953337,62300
Government securities 1/75,098329,168457,139605,111797,839514122
Government’s deposits21,40399,710216,039818,835792,994636190
In Turkish lira9,98913,66543,869245,668274,201211765
In foreign exchange11,41486,044172,170573,167513,794424425
Claims an other public sector19,357-28,017-87,309-277,161-312,5461036912
Claims25,9301,2032,2431,5761,5591436103
Lira deposits1,7625,51110,56855,35932,19235304
FX deposits4,81123,70978,984223,478281,913363888
By factor;888-2,321-5,585-46,99215,819-9247
Extrabudgetary funds-2,853-14,864-46,651-162,327-164,222-216664
Deposits in Turkish lira6433,0876,54949,71816,54123656
Deposits in foreign exchange 2/2,21011,77740,102112,609147,682193008
Of which: Insurance fond of savings deposits1,77411,46437,666106,351124,065156261
Local governments-1,082-2,405-4,007-5,646-15,671-10884
Deposits in Turkish lira1,0752,3953,9925,62015,63010836
Deposits in foreign, exchange71115254140
Nonfinancial public enterprises23,291-10,748-36,652-109,288-132,6531264460
Claims25,9301,2032,2431,5761,5591436103
Turkish lira deposits4430272122812
Foreign exchange deposits2,59411,92138,867110,843134,190170831
Claims on deposit money banks20,50328,67773,112831,8022,102,5971428428
Advances and discount12,25212,2207,6827,6767,5390
Other claims8,25116,45765,430823,3262,095,0581428428
Other items net:89,962-39,037-269,232-501,639-1,063,595-2926916
Revaluation account133,41725,940-49,934-290,796-499,636-624446
Capital and reserves-13,709-19,192-113,967-203,448-435,678-234133
Others-29,746-45,785-105,332-7,395-128,281-2068336
Reserve money280,494502,546962,2401,928,1023,475,1374551583
Currency issued120,126223,660381,814758,3931,327,7551557739
Currency outside banks100,085185,689309,895589,2271,016,0101190954
Currency in bank vaults20,04237,97171,920169,166311,745366835
Banks deposits160,368278,886580,4261,169,7102,147,3822993794
Required reserves122,543250,873450,876917,0081,648,0212200056
Free reserves37,82628,012129,550252,701499,361793738
TL/US$38,41859,501107,505204,750312,720418189
Source: Statistics Department of the Central Bank.

Securities are adjusted to include those sold, and to exclude those purchased, under repurchase agreements. Counterpart adjustments are made in, the accounts of the Deposit Money Banks.

Includes deposits of the Saving Deposits Insurants Fund.

Source: Statistics Department of the Central Bank.

Securities are adjusted to include those sold, and to exclude those purchased, under repurchase agreements. Counterpart adjustments are made in, the accounts of the Deposit Money Banks.

Includes deposits of the Saving Deposits Insurants Fund.

Table 32.Turkey: Accounts of Commercial Banks, 1994–99(In billions of Turkish liras)
19941995199619971998Jun-99
Net foreign assets209,513277,841144,339-181,877-944,022-1,595,774
Foreign assets335,160593,5961,016,1722,160,7863,661,8494,718,815
Foreign liabilities125,647315,755871,8332,342,6634,605,8716,314,589
Net domestic assets988,0712,214,6555,253,41012,013,99121,793,97830,821,986
Domestic credit980,3662,137,5015,147,84511,745,81320,166,09130,305,828
Claims on central government (net)293,424652,6701,979,1315,438,8609,457,94616,000,248
Credits18820,52512,53821,75214,75610,235
Bills and bonds146,233252,822874,6791,842,6423,742,1407,121,262
Duty loss accounts76,087186,840787,9301,823,8464,051,5686,413,002
Deposits31,78866,113217,626386,862605,2481,014,498
Claims on other public sector (net)-22,898-76,337-212,651-527,534-1,141,624-1,529,770
Extrabudgetary institutions-38,286-49,863-63,371-429,351-866,962-1,370,832
Claims21,64027,880111,89022,21323,13525,283
Deposits59,92777,742175,261451,564890,0971,396,115
Local government-7,265-14,117-53,316-108,123-137,239-128,667
Claims2,7564,7466,4218,19419,53914,890
Deposits10,02118,86359,736116,317156,777143,587
Nonfinancial public enterprises22,653-12,357-95,9649,939-137,423-30,271
Claims44,62940,28949,211217,409289,798193,675
Deposits21,97652,645145,175207,469427,221223,946
Claims on private sartor549,9331,272,9872,802,1326,326,61411,493,23913,903,149
Net position vis-à-vis the central bank159,907288,180579,234507,873356,5301,932,201
Claims of central bank20,50328,67773,112831,0022,102,5971,428,428
Bank reserves160,368278,886580,4261,169,7102,147,3822,993,794
Cash in vaults20,04237,97171,920169,166311,745366,835
Other items net7,70577,154105,564268,1791,627,886516,159
Liabilities vis-à-vis private sector1,197,5842,492,4965,397,74911,832,11420,849,95629,226,213
Demand deposits105,360160,966379,640697,7321,109,2731,184,109
Time and savings deposits423,011920,1962,075,7014,102,9238,831,63712,624,286
Residents’ foreign exchange deposits561,8751,145,8192,409,5914,893,8188,654,3001,947,555
Certificates of deposits4,6336,91911,2081601616
Repos102,705258,597521,6092,137,4822,254,7313,470,247
(In percent of total liabilities to the private sector)
Memorandum Items:
Lira deposits44.543.745.740.647.746.6
Residents’ foreign exchange deposits46.946.044.641.441.540.9
Repos8.610.49.718.110.811.9
Source: Central Bank of Turkey.
Source: Central Bank of Turkey.
Table 33.Turkey: Central Bank Balance Sheet, 1994–99

(End-of-period stocks, in billions of Turkish liras) 1/

199419951996199719981999
Q1Q2Q3
Net foreign assets-22,234130,652628,5*81,791,1372,907,0044,346,3905,468,4706,776,867
Net international reserves310,919767,5141,793,3483.823,6986,289,3937,986,9729,226,60511,005,646
Other foreign liabilities (net)333,153636,8621,164,7802,032,5613,382,3893,640,5823,758,1354,228,779
Banks deposits in FX97,565165,571353,441803,4791,375,2621,615,2511,942,5652,204,693
Required reserves65,033144,324275,364580,655953,7601,068,1071,243,0901,495,005
Free reserves32,53221,2477S.077222,824421,502547,144699,475709,688
Net domestic assets303,674372,642335,313141,978579,35595,920-899,257-1,400,535
Claims on central government (net)141,245256,528421,140-26,309-4,763102,499-125,248-279,955
Short term credits122,278192,000370,953337,6230000
Portfolio accounts43,198163,850266,087454,299782,770645,037510,386584,639
Securities portfolio75,098329,167457,304613,513828,192661,341522,474596,727
Securitizations-31,900-165,317-191,217-159,214-45,422-16,304-12,088-12,088
Other-3,77474-10,456-63,607-57,836-61,474-59,132-22,211
Deposits17,45799,396205,444754,624729,697481,064576,502842,383
Lira deposits6.05613,38133,274181,458212,12795,875119,601163,739
FX deposits11,40186,015172,170573,166517,570385,189456,901678,644
(In millions of U.S. dollars)2951,4461,6022,7991,6551,0541,0931,476
Claims on other public sector (net)23,008-10,828-38,269-112,067-146,359-150,156-193,352-216,865
Soil products office25,0960000000
Claims on SEEs8331,2012,2431,5761.5591,6721,7841,873
Deposits2,92112,02940,512113,643147,918151,828195,136213,738
Lira deposits169376846136181,001111
FX deposits5432153425739211.0221,127829
Funds FX2,20911,77740,102112,609146,961150,788193,008217,798
Claims on hanks11,189-3,672-43,674728,0201,838,1331,296,832875,970912,930
Agricultural00000000
Commercial12,32212,2497,6897.6767,5397,6757,6757,675
Other00000000
TL credit against FX (swap)00000000
Claims under legal procee.555555S5
Open market operations-1,138-15,926-51,368720,3391,830,5891,289,152868,290905,250
TL deposits against FEX deposits00000000
Bonds transactions (net)-9,384-23,552-38,884710,2021,587,949990,242506,650582,020
Debts due to bonds which will be repurchased-9,384-23,552-57,04800000
Claims due to bonds which will be resold00-18,164-710,202-1,587,949-990,242-506,650-582,020
Overnight operations8,2467,626-12,48510,137242,640298,910361,640323,230
Deposits given8,24616,45234,23036,650242,640298,910361,640323,230
Deposits taken08,82646,71526,5130000
Other items (net)125,232130,614-3,881-447,6661,107,656-1,153,255-1,456,627-1,816,645
Devaluation account135,52041,898-3,635-190,081-416,801-223,498-536,580-858,487
Securitizations31,900165,317191,217159,21445,42216,30412,08812,088
Other items (net)-40,108-68,615-179,787-342,437-698,816-910338-890,410-910,138
Nonbank private sea dep.-218-2,328-633-17,611-2,840-13,617-4,333-9,998
FX Cre against TL (Swap)00000000
Other-1,862-5,658-11,043-56,751-34,621-22,106-37,392-50,110
Funds-656-3,090-6,549-49,722-16,737-9,883-23,673-37,552
Nonbank private sector-1,206-2,568-4,494-7,029-17,884-12,223-13,719-12,558
Reserve money183,875337,713610,4401,129,6362,111,0972,827,0592,626,6483,171,639
Currency issued120,212223,934382,243758,8781,328,5421,926,9661,559,6941,870,281
Bank deposits in liras63,663113,789228,197370,758782,555900,0931,066,9541,301,358
Required reserves57,509106,548175,512336,353694,261820,594956,9661,183,157
Free reserves6,1547,24152,68534,40588,29479,499109,938118,201
Memorandum items:
Lira/US$ (end-of-period)38,68759,501107,505204,750312,720365,579418,189459,780
Foreign exchange exposure (In millions of US$)-3,462-2,2345811,4722,7706,0026,5757,993
(In percent of reserve money)-72.8-39.410.226.741.077.6109.5115.9
Source: Accounting Department of the Central Bank.

All foreign currency aggregates are valued at current exchange rates (cross exchange rates vis-à-vis the US$, and lira/US$).

Source: Accounting Department of the Central Bank.

All foreign currency aggregates are valued at current exchange rates (cross exchange rates vis-à-vis the US$, and lira/US$).

Table 34.Turkey: Factors Affecting Changes in Reserve Money, 1995–99
19951996199719981999
H1H2YearH1
(Flows; in billions of Turkish liras) 1/
Net foreign assets126,795296,110396,9781,908,616-2,037,890-129,2741,358,904
(In millions of U.S. dollar)2,7713,6512,9017,926-7,3795483,781
Banks’ deposits in foreign exchange11,93440,957103,28541,06478,872119,93694,709
Net domestic assets38,98617,564225,503-1,444,4562,675,1261,230,671-748,644
Claims on central government (net)134,215238,123-278,872108,044102,401210,445-8,103
Short-term credits69,722178,953-33,330-337,6230-337,6230
Portfolio accounts120,652102,237188,212284,70743,764328,471-272,384
Other3,348-10,530-53,151-28,64234,4135,771-1,296
Deposits59,99732,537380,603-189,602-24,224-213,826-265,577
Lira deposits7,32519,893148,18479,176-48,50730,669-92,526
Foreign exchange deposits52,67212,644232,419-268,77824,283-244,495-173,051
Claims on other public sector (net)-30,56413,155-26,594-62,33395,80733,474-4,949
Claims on banks-14,861-40,002771,694-1,728,8122,838,9251,110,113-962,163
Open market operations-14,788-35,442771,707-1,728,8112,839,0611,110,250-962,299
Other items (net)-49,813-167,402-240,725238,645-362,006-123,361226,572
Reserve money153,848272,717519496423,096558,365981,461515,551
Currency issued103,722158,309376,635247,110322,554569,664231,152
Bank deposits in liras50,126114,408142,561175,986235,811411,797284,399
Required reserves49,03968,964160,841189,963167,945357,908262,705
Free reserves1,08745,444-18,280-13,97767,86653,88921,694
(Changes in percent of initial stock of reserve money)
Net foreign assets69.087.765.0169.0-180.4-11.464.4
Banks’ deposits in foreign exchange6.511.116.93.67.010.64.5
Net domestic assets21.25.236.9-127.9236.8108.9-35.5
Claims on central government (net)73.070.5-45.79.69.118.6-0.4
Short-term credits37.953.0-5.5-29.90.0-29.90.0
Portfolio accounts65.630.330.825.23.929.1-12.9
Other2.1-3.1-8.7-2.53.00.5-0.1
Deposits32.69.662.3-16.8-2.1-18.9-23.5
Lira deposits4.05.924.37.0-4.32.7-4.4
FX deposits28.63.738.1-23.82.1-21.6-15.3
Claims on other public sector (net)-16.6-3.9-4.4-5.58.53.0-0.2
Claims on banks-8.1-11.8126.4-153.0251.398.3-45.6
Open market operations-8.0-10.5126.4-153.0251398.3-45.6
Other items (net)-27.1-49.6-39.421.1-32.0-10.910.7
Reserve money83.780.885.137.549.486.924.4
Memorandum items:
Central bank’s foreign exchange exposure (US$ million) 2/-2,2345811,47210,4275,9012,7706,875
(In percent of reserve money)-39.410.126.7172.985.541.010.9
Average TL/US$45,76681,102151,628268.762270,698269,730359,322
Source: Accounting Department of the Central Bank.

Flows of foreign currency assets and liabilities are valued at the average period exchange rate.

Defined as central bank’s foreign assets minus foreign exchange deposits of banks, the central government, and the rest of the public sector, and foreign) liabilities to nonresidents.

Source: Accounting Department of the Central Bank.

Flows of foreign currency assets and liabilities are valued at the average period exchange rate.

Defined as central bank’s foreign assets minus foreign exchange deposits of banks, the central government, and the rest of the public sector, and foreign) liabilities to nonresidents.

Table 35.Turkey: Repo Transactions between Banks and the Private Sector, 1994–99(In billions of Turkish liras)
TotalTotal

(In US$; millions)
TL/US$

(End-of-period)
1994102,7052,65238,726
1995258,5974,33559,650
1996521,6094,840107,775
19972,137,48210,421205,110
19982,254,7317,187313,707
1997
January718,2286,234115,210
February774,3686,356121,830
March947,4747,457127,050
April1,158,2578,606134,580
May1317,8379,460139300
June1,471,4379,963147,690
July1,767,67911,141158,660
August2,058,78412,447165,410
September2,132,08212309173,210
October1,951,60110,768181,240
November2,224,46611,501193,420
December2,137,48210,421205,110
1998
January2,483,67411,596214,190
February2,608,03611,414228,500
March2,609,43810,799241,630
April2,806,46111,291248,550
May3,137,20112,258255,940
June2,720,54710,271264,880
July2,586,9899,608269,260
August2,909,22010,540276,020
September2,611,4569,455276,210
October2,614,3209,137286,130
November2352,8427,808301320
December2,254,7317,187313,707
1999
January2,888,1338,736330,605
February3,121,0378,899350,713
March3,131,4878,524367,383
April4,001,26710,264389,833
May3,856,8059,531404,642
June3,470,2478,298418,189
Source: Central Bank of Turkey.
Source: Central Bank of Turkey.
Table 36.Turkey. Net Foreign Asset Position of the Central Bank, 1994–99(In millions of U.S. dollars)
1999
19941995199619971998JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember
Net foreign assets-5752,1965,8478,7489,2969,96610,32511,88912,72012,94513,07714,34514,41714,739
Net international reserves8,03712,89916,68218,67520,11220,71420,52221,84722,22522,28922,06323,89223,59423,937
Gross reserves8,56113,81217,69519,57520,87421,42321,18822,47822,77922,81422,56124,34724,03024,395
Gold1,4491,4221,4221,1561,1561,1561,0401,0401,0401,0401,0401,0401,0401,040
Other7,11212,39116,27218,41919,71820,26720,14721,43821,73921,77421,52123,30722,99023,355
Foreign banknotes419798292363473420430382455391350445452454
Correspondent accounts6,69311,59515,98018,05619,24619,84719,71821,05621,28421,38321,17122,86222,53722,901
Current accounts4,6017,4305,8266,4631,5531,8701,0789301,3278111,1981,1651,6372,111
Portfolio accounts1,3943,9319,99011,53017,59117,88018,56820,06219,89720,56419,96321,68720,88920,778
of which:
Turkish defense fund account01,072965632477477476482479480469469469469
Required deposits in dresdner1,3931,6041,4981,3091,3391,2971,2321,2181,1861,1571,1501,1871,1601,179
Other accounts6982341646310196716460810101212
International reserves liabilities5249131,013900762708666631554526498455436458
Overdrafts520423015192013131213131213
Short-term credits11100000000000
Letters of credit175209310274359341322319284272270262258303
IMF344684661595388343323299255241215179166142
Other foreign liabilities (net)8,61110,70310,8359,92710,81610,74810,1979,9589,5059,3448,9879,5479,1779,197
FCDs of nonresident citizens9,22511,55811,94911,36012,77112,49712,13912,00411,69511,55711,40411,70211,38411,424
1-year maturity834999968879915889857841812799781794758750
2-year maturity7,8459,3479,1498,4809,3779,1738,9078,8018,5588,4428,3158,5118,2728,295
3-yeaj maturity5461,2121,8322,0012,4792,4352,3762,3622,3252,3162,3092,3982,3542,379
Medium-term credit (net)-763-1,006-1,143-1,197-1,252-1,257-1,262-1,270-1,275-1,279-1,283-1,284-1,289-1,293
others (net)15015129-236-702-191-681-776-915-934-1,135-871-918-934
Memorandum item:
Net international reserves (excl. Turkish, defense)
Fund account and required deposits in dres6,64310,22414,21916,73418,29618,94018,81420,14820,56120,65320,44422,23721,96522,289
Lira/US$38,68759,501107,505204,750312,720329,894350,034365,579387,750402,551418,189425,880443,201459,780
Source: Accounting Department of the Central Bank.
Source: Accounting Department of the Central Bank.
Table 37.Turkey: Net Foreign Asset Position of the Banking System, 1994–99(In millions of U.S. dollars)
199419951996199719981999
Mar.Jun.Sep.Dec.Jun.
Net foreign assets5,4544,6701,343-888-3,804-3,0633,086-3,019-3,816
Foreign assets8,7249,9769,45210,5538,8929,46217,05111,71011,284
Cash5596669209276317673,182702664
Claims on banks abroad7,0078,0796,6516,7425,4475,83710,1487,6926,932
Banks abroad5,5976,1835,3394,9893,9914,3417,9235,9095,580
Head offices and branches abroad1,4101,8961,3121,7531,4561,4962,2251,7831,352
Claims on other nonresidents1,1591,2321,8812,8842,8142,8573,7203,3163,689
Securities and bonds4846481,1441,8131,5991,6132,2221,7651,390
Credits5293794616457197378628731,020
Equity participation118145194337364376420501530
Other28608289132132216177749
Foreign liabilities3,2715,3078,11011,44212,69612,52513,96414,72815,100
Interbank deposits3281,2721,5562,3982,8513,4833,6864,0034,387
Loans1,8692,1004,2545,9076,4136,8648,2647,5387,879
Nonresidents FCDs9531,8062,0282,9313,2231,9931,8223,0222,625
Others121128271205208185193165208
Source: Central Bank of Turkey.
Source: Central Bank of Turkey.
Table 38.Turkey: Selected Interest Rates, 1991–99(Compounded annualized after tax; in percent)
Overnight Interbank RateThree-month Treasury Bills 1/Six-month Treasury Bill 1/One Year Treasury Bills 1/Average Across Maturities 1/2/Three-month Repurchase RateThree-month Time Deposits 3/Short-term Commercial Credits
1991109.686.086.069.0111.4
199292.294.294.284.277.0116.0
199387.685.885.881.271.4114.7
1994591.7156.2136.6160.7143.9115.8274.8
1995108.2123.0121.3108.6125.8106.993.8176.7
1996115.8138.1138.6115.0132.4114.0101.1162.6
1997101.4118.3112.4105.5106.097.289.0144.7
1998111.9124.7110.4101.3115.5100.589.3155.2
1997
January85.692.292.285.885.8145.5
February92.689.688.085.0139.1
March91.495.888.484.9141.4
April91.30.096.985.0140.3
May94.297.797.791.185.3141.0
June101.5100.9100.995.786.1140.5
July99.1105.7107.097.488.6144.3
August109.3119.7119.7103.693.4145.3
September111.5121.7112.1116.9103.692.8145.3
October103.9114.1108.9101.793.3148.5
November117.7114.7114.7106.093.8152.4
December118.0122.5122.5107.994.2152.6
1998
January109.7120.0120.0100.693.2155.5
February127.1128.9124.0126.5112.786.7154.7
March123.8113.1117.8115.5103.193.6152.8
April112.9106.8105.4100.392.4153.5
May109.991.592.392.691.4152.6
June94.890.599.092.283.586.4148.5
July73.771.186.677.567277.8141.2
August113.7100.086.994.397.880.1146.5
September119.7143.3130.5137.0103.992.1153.9
October117.6141.7106.792.9159.7
November120.0145.7142.0125.492.2167.6
December120.1138.2128.2141.1112.593.3175.6
1999
January119.4128.6128.6110.994.8176.1
February116.0119.9125.4122.7106.692.9176.1
March116.0110.4102.8106.693.391.3171.2
April115.7101.699.4100.591.791.1169.5
May115.7104.695.3100.098.391.4172.9
June115.9114.5106.8110.796.193.1172.7
July102.299.096.2104.499.888.692.5172.9
August10.899.8109.7104.789.191.3
September95.798.7101.4100.096.188.1
October100.2103.499.4
Sources: Central Bank of Turkey; and Fund staff estimates.

From November 1996 onwards, after withholding of taxes at the rate of 13.2 percent and from January 1998 at 6.6 percent.

Average across maturities ranging from three months to one year.

The withholding tax on deposits (inclusive of fund charges) was raised from 5.5 percent during 1995–96 to 13.2 percent in January 1997.

Sources: Central Bank of Turkey; and Fund staff estimates.

From November 1996 onwards, after withholding of taxes at the rate of 13.2 percent and from January 1998 at 6.6 percent.

Average across maturities ranging from three months to one year.

The withholding tax on deposits (inclusive of fund charges) was raised from 5.5 percent during 1995–96 to 13.2 percent in January 1997.

Table 39.Turkey: Selected Real Interest Rates, 1995–99(Compounded annualized after tax; in percent)
Overnight

Interbank

Rate

Return vis-à-vis

basket 1/
Repo

Market

Rate

Return vis-à-vis

basket 1/
Three-month

Time

Deposits 2/
Short-term

Commercial

Credits 2/
199538.738.54.248.5
199621.020.110.644.2
199713.411.1-1.427.7
199834.326.57.144.5
1997
January-3.3-3.20.032.1
February18.816.0-2.126.5
March18.816.3-0.829.5
April11.915.2-1.028.5
May10.48.60.130.1
June21.217.81.531.2
July14.913.92.232.3
August23.319.93.731.5
September11.27.1-0.326.9
October9.28.0-3.124.5
November8.82.9-6.421.9
December15.510.2-10.216.8
1998
January14.19.1-12.216.0
February17.49.9-12.319.6
March23.512.2-3.825.7
April29.421.72.535.0
May32.421.58.242.8
June36.028.111.048.0
July27.022.213.954.6
August60.848.816.459.4
September59.247.718.656.8
October46.939.616.056.3
November29.432.513.913.6
December29.224.812.760.6
1999
January30.825.710.456.5
February28.623.011.058.9
March32.718.815.864.1
April26.912.818.366.8
May38.927.721.673.4
June46.533.122.873.4
July38.229.024.776.8
August37.528.421.5
September17.527.815.1
October42.141.510.1
Sources: Central Bank of Turkey; and Fund staff estimates.

Defined as annualized monthly nominal interest rates divided by the annualized rates of monthly depreciation vis-à-vis a basket of 1 US dollar and 0.77 euro.

Defined as annualized monthly nominal interest rates deflated by the annualized rates of CPI inflation during the previous three months.

Sources: Central Bank of Turkey; and Fund staff estimates.

Defined as annualized monthly nominal interest rates divided by the annualized rates of monthly depreciation vis-à-vis a basket of 1 US dollar and 0.77 euro.

Defined as annualized monthly nominal interest rates deflated by the annualized rates of CPI inflation during the previous three months.

Table 40.Turkey: Interest Rates on Foreign Exchange Denominated Deposits and Commercial Lending, 1995–99(Compounded; percent)
Three-month DepositsCommercial Credit
US DollarDeutsche MarkShort-termLong-term
19954.85.49.58.1
19965.75.010.47.2
19977.25.79.97.3
19989.27.212.07.3
1997
January6.14.89.57.1
February6.04.89.67.1
March6.14.89.77.0
April6.14.89.87.0
May6.55.110.07.1
June7.05.39.87.1
July7.35.610.07.2
August7.66.010.07.2
September8.16.510.08.8
October8.46.710.07.3
November8.56.89.97.1
December8.36.79.97.7
1998
January8.36.810.910.3
February8.46.811.68.8
March8.46.811.88.8
April8.97.011.68.8
May8.86.910.98.6
June9.27.111.78.7
July9.17.212.28.8
August9.37.313.18.9
September9.67.413.79.1
October9.87.712.89.2
November10.37.814.19.8
December10.37.814.715.7
1999
January10.58.314.69.5
February10.58.314.79.6
March11.28.616.69.4
April10.88.617.39.6
May10.98.715.79.7
June11.19.016.59.8
July13.510.616.410.4
August13.910.7
Sources: Central Bank of Turkey, and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Central Bank of Turkey, and Fund staff estimates.
Table 41.Turkey: Taxes on Financial Instruments, 1996–98(In percent)
199619971998
JanuaryJuneDecemberJanuaryJuneDecemberJanuaryJuneDecember
Withholding tax on TL deposits5.05.05.012.012.012.012.012.012.0
Inclusive of Fund contribution 1/5.55.55.513.213.213.213.213.213.2
Withholding tax on FX deposits10.010.010.012.012.012.012.012.012.0
Witholding tax on corporate bonds10.010.010.012.012.012.012.012.012.0
Witholding tax on finance bills10.010.010.012.012.012.012.012.012.0
Withholding tax on government bills and bonds 2/000.010.012.012.012.012.012.012.0
Financial transaction tax5.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.0
RUSF contribution (Consumer credits) 3/10.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.0
RUSF contribution (Others)6.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.06.0
Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

Beginning January 1, 1993, 5% DISF charge on Deposit withholding tax has been replaced by Fund allocation charge of 7% and beginning February 1, 1995, it increased to 10%.

Charge on Withholding tax. on government bills and bonds was in effect from November 1, 1996.

In effect since September 22, 1995.

Source: Data provided by the Turkish authorities.

Beginning January 1, 1993, 5% DISF charge on Deposit withholding tax has been replaced by Fund allocation charge of 7% and beginning February 1, 1995, it increased to 10%.

Charge on Withholding tax. on government bills and bonds was in effect from November 1, 1996.

In effect since September 22, 1995.

Table 42.Turkey: Maturity Structure of Bank Deposits and Loans, 1994–99
19941995199619971998Jun-99
Deposits
Total Lira Deposits563,5201,117,9042,800,4195,402,78310,913,74215,052,175
Sight153,592238,916756,3531,259,1631,902,1172,545,129
1-month73,301193,879410,506795,2861,843,7582,029,395
3-months206,692360,029832,0031,804,3594,357,0835,169,820
6-month98,421264,454658,5281,294,3882,420,7374,532,131
1 year and more31,51560,62593,028249,588390,048775,701
Total Foreign Exchange Deposits598,4781,253,2902,627,6295,493,8529,599,24713,045,307
Sight172,546364,908705,9781,280,5122,036,1662,337,997
1-month48,726166,577363,9171,055,2432,124,5363,022,616
3-months205,881403,037804,6521,513,1883,105,5684,402,637
6-months54,432112,961244,038467,966897,1841,069,993
1 year and more112,892205,806509,043776,9431,435,7932,212,065
Total Deposits1,161,9982,371,1935,428,04710,896,63520,512,98928,097,482
Sight325,138603,8251,462,3312,539,6753,938,2834,883,125
1-month122,027360,457774,4241,550,5283,968,2935,052,011
3-months416,573763,0561,686,6563,717,5477,462,6519,572,456
6-months152,854377,415902,5661,762,3543,317,9205,602,124
1 year and more144,407266,431602,0711,026,5301,325,8412,987,766
(In percent of total)
TL deposits
Sight27.321.427.023.317.416.9