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Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund
Published Date:
April 2005
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IX. External Public Debt Developments and Sustainability1

This chapter reviews the substantial progress made by the Tajikistan authorities in improving external debt sustainability. However, it notes that the debt profile still needs to be managed prudently, especially from a fiscal sustainability perspective.

A. Historical Trends

1. In 1991, Tajikistan started its development as an independent state without external debt, but debt accumulated rapidly during the 1990s. In the early years of transition, against the backdrop of a chaotic political situation, civil conflict, poor governance and cessation of transfers from the central budget, the authorities had to import petroleum products, grain, and consumer staples, all at market prices. These imports relied initially on short-term suppliers’ credits and subsequently on offsets through correspondent accounts in central banks of former Soviet states. As a result, Tajikistan’s external debt increased from zero at independence to 15 percent of GDP by end-1992 and to 60 percent a year later. The explosive trend in debt accumulation continued through the 1990s and culminated in 2000, when external debt reached 128 percent of GDP.

Evolution of Public Debt

2. Attempts to regularize the debt situation began in the mid-1990s but initially were only partly successful. In 1995, to arrest the buildup of arrears under bilateral trade arrangements with CIS partners, the government announced that it would no longer guarantee payments by Tajik enterprises. In the late 1990s-early 2000s, Tajikistan conducted a series of debt rescheduling negotiations with its main bilateral creditors, which helped to improve its debt service profile, although the terms of rescheduling were not sufficiently concessional to stabilize the debt ratios. At the same time, the authorities started using external concessional loans to finance development projects and accumulated additional debt.

3. Since the early 2000, prudent policies have reversed the pattern of a rising debt burden. The authorities implemented tighter policies on contracting new debt, avoiding non-concessional borrowing, and limiting new concessional loans under the public investment program (PIP) to 3 percent of GDP annually. In the absence of an effective debt management system, the ceiling on borrowing under the PIP has helped to restrain and better prioritize externally financed public investment. With a rapid recovery in output and further aggressive debt restructuring and regularization, the ratio of external debt to GDP first stabilized and then started to decline.

B. Recent Developments

4. Tajikistan’s external debt burden is relatively low compared with most other low-income countries. At end-2004, Tajikistan’s external debt amounted to $822 million (40 percent of GDP) and total debt service due was equivalent to 10 percent of relevant exports.2 The debt service payments due on government and government-guaranteed debt stood at 15 percent of fiscal revenue. In net present value (NPV) terms, Tajikistan’s external public sector debt at end-2004 amounted to about 33 percent of GDP, compared with 72 percent in the Kyrgyz Republic, 53 percent in Moldova, 41 percent in Georgia, and 39 percent in Armenia.

5. At end-2004, multilateral creditors accounted for two-thirds of the debt stock. Two largest multi-lateral creditors are the World Bank and the IMF. Uzbekistan is now the largest bilateral creditor, (after the October 2004 debt reduction agreement with Russia) followed by Russia, the United States, and Turkey. Over half of Tajikistan’s external debt is denominated in SDRs, 34 percent is in US dollars, 7 percent is in Euros, and the rest is in other currencies.

Public External Debt at a Glance
20032004
US$

million
Percent of

total
Percent of

GDP
US$

million
Percent of

total
Percent of

GDP
Total public debt1,031100.066.3822100.039.7
Government82780.353.264978.931.3
Bilateral46845.430.121325.910.3
Multilateral36034.923.143653.021.0
NBT1009.76.411614.15.6
Public enterprises10310.06.6587.02.8
Government-guaranteed636.14.1253.11.2
Non-guaranteed403.92.6323.91.6
Source: Tajik authorities.
Source: Tajik authorities.

6. The external debt situation improved markedly in 2002–2004 owing to the reduction in face value and favorable endogenous debt dynamics. The authorities concluded a number of debt cancellation and restructuring (most recently with Russia and Pakistan) which help reduce the face value of external debt by 20 percent in 2004 alone. Also, the government did not contract any new bilateral loans, other than from two development funds (the Saudi Fund and the Kuwait Fund) classified as bilateral lenders. Most bilateral assistance is now provided in the form of grants. Endogenous debt dynamics, in particular from the rapid increase in the nominal GDP, both from the high real growth rate and the improvement in the coverage of previous informal economic activities, have also contributed markedly to the reduction of debt ratios.

Key Debt Ratios

(In percent)

7. The agreement on regularization of debt with Russia was an important factor behind the reduction of the debt burden. The agreement signed in October 2004 affecting $306 million of principal and interest is part of a broader investment package and includes: a debt-for-asset swap of $242 million; offset of the National Bank of Tajikistan’s claims on the Central Bank of Russia; and cancellation of the bulk of the unpaid interest accrued in 2004. Under the swap, $242 million will be converted into Russia’s state ownership of the Nurek space tracking station located in Tajikistan. The formal write-off of the debt will take place after Russia’s ownership of Nurek is legally finalized. The government of Tajikistan will repay the remaining $50 million by investing this amount during 2005–2008 on behalf of Russia in the construction of the Sangtuda I hydro-power station.

Debt Reduction Agreement with Russia(In millions of US dollars)
Total debt305.7
Stock299.7
Interest for 20046.1
Debt reduction254.7
Offset against claims on CBR12.3
Principal7.2
Interest5.0
Debt-for-equity swap242.4
Remaining debt51.0
Investment in Sangtuda50.0
Interest1.0
Source: Tajik authorities.
Source: Tajik authorities.

8. Tajikistan’s debt to Uzbekistan has been the subject of protracted negotiations. Uzbekistan’s total debt outstanding is $94 million. The debt originated from trade credits and negative balances on correspondent accounts opened in the early 1990s in the central banks of both countries for offsets in trade-related payments. This debt has been serviced by offsets with services provided by Tajik Rail for the transportation of Uzbek goods through the Tajik territory. After protracted negotiations, in February 2005 the governments of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan signed an agreement for debt payments in 2004 and 2005. The debt service of $14 million falling due in 2005 will be paid with services by Tajik Rail. As the offset agreements have to be renegotiated annually, this creates significant uncertainty regarding future debt payments.

C. Debt Sustainability

9. The assumptions underlying this debt sustainability analysis (DSA) include: continued strong real growth of 6.5 percent a year on average in 2005–2010, moderate inflation of 5 percent annually, fiscal deficit, (excluding the PIP) of 0.5 percent of GDP, externally financed PIP at 4.5 percent of GDP, and current account deficit of 4–5 percent of GDP. Commodity prices (aluminum, cotton) and exchange rate projections are based on the January 2005 WEO baseline, updated with recent near-term price movements. The discount rate for NPV calculations is set at 5 percent, and exports are computed as the current year exports of goods and services, excluding barter exports of aluminum and electricity. The DSA is based on the operational framework for low-income countries3 adjusted to Tajikistan’s circumstances, mainly by calibrating stress tests.

10. Under the baseline scenario, Tajikistan’s public debt will remain sustainable in the foreseeable future.4 Assuming highly concessional new borrowing and overall prudent debt management, the face value of Tajikistan’s public external debt is not expected to exceed 40 percent of GDP in the long-run (Table 1). The non-interest current account is projected to remain close to balance as the trade deficit will be largely offset by net transfers, while FDI, other non-debt creating inflows, and high GDP growth will have a positive impact on the endogenous debt dynamics. In the medium term, reflecting its highly concessional nature, the NPV of Tajikistan’s debt will average 31 percent of GDP. The NPV of public debt-to-exports ratio is projected to decline gradually from 100 to 91 percent during the projection period, reflecting mainly faster exports growth, with the NPV of debt remaining broadly stable. The public debt service-to-export ratio will also decline from 10 to 5 percent. The profile of the government and government-guaranteed (GGG) debt is largely similar to that of the public debt (Table 2).

11. The most optimistic scenario of conservative borrowing policies and the continuation of favorable recent macroeconomic trends would ease the debt burden further. A historical scenario assumes the continuation of the favorable 2002–2004 trends in debt dynamics—key macroeconomic variables (real GDP growth, GDP deflator, non-interest current account and non-debt creating flows) at their 1998–2004 averages. Under this scenario, the NPV of public debt would decline from the baseline of 33 percent of GDP in 2004 to 24 percent in 2013, the NPV of debt-to export ratio will decline from 100 to 72 percent, and the debt service ratio will drop from 10 to 6 percent. (Table 3, Figure 1). In addition, if the primary fiscal deficit remains at the low level of 2002—2004 during the projection period, the NPV of debt-to-revenue ratio will decline from 175 percent in 2004 to 65 percent in 2013 and debt service-to-revenue ratio will drop to from 11 to 3 percent (Table 4,Figure 2) However, the economic factors that led to the recent rapid improvement in the debt outlook are not likely to be repeated.

12. Alternative less favorable scenarios suggest that the prospects of debt sustainability will depend critically on the continuation of sound policies and concessional borrowing. An extreme alternative scenario of a deterioration in all key variables by one-half standard deviation yields a significant deterioration of debt ratios. During the five years after such a shock, the NPV of public debt-to-GDP ratio may worsen by almost 50 percentage points on average, and a permanently lower GDP growth (by one standard deviation compared to the baseline) results in a deterioration in the NPV of debt-to-revenue ratio by 44 percentage points on average in 2005–2010. In the long run (Table 3), the scenario of less favorable terms for new public sector borrowing (interest rate 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline) may result in a significant deterioration the NPV of debt-to-GDP ratio from 33 percent of GDP in 2004 to 48 percent in 2023 and in the NPV of debt-to-exports ratio from 100 to 137 percent. A permanently lower GDP growth is also a significant risk factor for fiscal debt sustainability in the long-term prospective (Table 4), as the associated lower revenue collection can result in an increase of NPV of debt-to-revenue ratio from 175 to 304 percent in 2004–2023, and the debt service-to-revenue ratio on GGG debt from 11 to 18 percent.

Stress tests results, 2005-2010 averages
The most extreme shock
Baselineto exportsto real GDPcombined
NPV of debt-to-GDP2978
NPV of debt-to-exports93169
Debt service-to-exports711
NPV of debt-to-revenue157201
Debt service-to-revenue1214

13. Additional bound tests show that Tajikistan’s external public debt position will remain highly sensitive to adverse shocks. As just three commodities—aluminum, cotton, and fruits and vegetables—constitute some 40 percent of GDP, 70 percent of exports, and 10 percent of fiscal revenue, Tajikistan’s debt sustainability in the long run will depend substantially on price and volume dynamics in these highly volatile sectors. Not surprisingly, an export revenue shock is one of the more extreme shock modeled by this DSA. In the medium term (see box above), assuming that export revenue declines by one standard deviation from its historical average, the NPV-to-exports ratio worsened from an average of 93 percent under the baseline in the next five years, to 169 percent in 2004-2010 on average, and the debt service ratio on public debt will deteriorate from 7 to 11 percent. In the longer-term prospective (Table 3), the debt dynamics are particularly sensitive to the export revenue shock. A one standard deviation shock compared to historical averages can lead to a protracted deterioration of the NPV of debt-to exports ratio, which will not disappear even by 2023. A surge in inflation and nominal depreciation are also important risk factors, which can have lasting effect on the NPV of debt-to-GDP and the fiscal ratios, in particular the NPV of debt-to-revenue and debt service-to-revenue ratios (Table 4). Therefore, if the forecast of the underlying GDP growth does not materialize, a permanently lower GDP growth is the most negative alternative scenario, which can have an adverse impact on the overall debt dynamics. Shocks to GDP and export growth, exchange rate depreciation and inflation are the most important risk factors for fiscal sustainability of the existing debt burden.

D. Conclusions

14. Tajikistan’s debt situation seems sustainable, but vulnerable to shocks and hinges on continued strong policy implementation.

  • External concessional borrowing not exceeding 4.5 percent of GDP annually is broadly consistent with long-term debt sustainability. Stability of debt ratios in the long run depends on cautious borrowing policies and strong macroeconomic performance. With strong growth underpinned by sustained reforms and no new non-concessional borrowing, Tajikistan debt indicators are projected to remain stable in the longer term. However, slippages in reforms, lower growth, and adverse exogenous shocks, in particular to exports, are the largest sources of debt vulnerability.
  • Fiscal sustainability of debt, although improved after the recent debt regularization agreements, needs to be monitored closely and continuously. Government’s debt service obligations will remain an important expenditure item, in particular in the medium term. The revenue effort (taxes and grants) of at least 18.0–18.5 percent GDP during the forecast period and a fiscal deficit excluding the PIP not exceeding 0.5 percent of GDP are needed to target the debt service-to-revenue ratio at below 15 percent. This targeted level of debt service is appropriate based on historical experience and would permit additional budget expenditure on development and social needs, without diverting an excessive share to debt repayments. Lower GDP growth and revenue are the main risks to debt sustainability, as debt service payments could increase up to 20 percent of fiscal revenue in the worst case scenario.
  • Restructuring of bilateral debt with large creditors remains a priority. Debt rescheduling or cancellation of obligations to the largest creditors (Uzbekistan, the United States, and Turkey) would help smoothen the debt profile in the medium term and reduce strain on fiscal resources.
  • Strengthening debt management capacity must continue. The authorities need to establish a reliable computerized debt tracking system for all external debts—public and private—and start using it for budget and balance of payment forecasting and analysis. The terms and conditions of significant loans under the PIP or any other public credit line should be analyzed carefully to determine their impact on Tajikistan’s debt profile and its sustainability. A fully-fledged DSA should be prepared annually, as a contribution to the annual budget exercise.
Table 1.Tajikistan: Sensitivity Analyses for Key Indicators of Public External Debt, 2002-23(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
ActualHistoricalStandardActualEst.Projections
Average6/Deviation6/2004-082009-23
2002200320042005200620072008Average20132023Average
Public external debt (nominal)1/84.466.339.738.536.535.735.137.136.340.537.7
o/w government and gov. guaranteed (GGG) debt 10/81.663.738.137.135.334.734.135.935.740.337.3
Change in external debt-14.1-18.1-26.6-1.2-2.0-0.8-0.7-6.20.60.20.4
Identified net debt-creating flows-12.2-20.4-14.1-1.7-3.4-2.5-2.7-4.90.91.00.7
Non-interest current account deficit-0.38.38.8-0.11.82.21.81.51.31.74.33.84.0
Deficit in balance of goods and services34.534.136.836.035.335.235.135.735.737.436.2
Exports 7/41.439.332.931.431.631.131.331.733.135.033.5
Imports75.973.469.767.466.866.566.467.468.872.369.7
Net current transfers (negative = inflow)-15.5-2.85.9-21.1-19.2-18.9-18.3-18.1-18.0-18.5-18.7-22.0-19.7
Other current account flows (negative = net inflow)-19.4-13.0-15.8-14.9-15.1-15.6-15.9-15.5-12.6-11.6-12.5
Net FDI (negative = inflow)-1.8-2.10.8-2.0-1.4-1.7-3.3-2.5-2.6-2.3-2.4-1.5-2.1
Endogenous debt dynamics 2/-10.0-18.3-14.4-2.2-1.9-1.5-1.4-4.3-1.0-1.3-1.2
Contribution from nominal interest rate3.11.42.10.60.50.60.60.90.60.60.6
Contribution from real GDP growth-7.8-6.6-5.3-2.8-2.5-2.0-2.0-2.9-1.7-1.9-1.8
Contribution from price and exchange rate changes-5.4-13.1-11.3-0.6-0.7-0.6
Residual (3-4) 3/-1.82.3-12.50.51.51.82.0-1.4-0.4-0.8-0.3
o/w exceptional financing 8/0.00.0-0.60.00.00.00.0-0.10.00.00.0
NPV of public external debt4/54.743.232.931.430.129.428.730.528.031.729.4
In percent of exports 7/132.1109.899.9100.195.593.891.796.284.590.687.8
NPV of GGG external debt52.040.631.330.128.928.327.729.327.431.529.0
In percent of exports 7/125.5103.395.195.891.790.488.792.382.890.186.5
Public debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent)18.39.610.49.37.87.67.68.55.15.14.9
GGG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent)13.64.86.08.47.27.17.17.24.85.04.7
Total gross financing need (billions of U.S. dollars) 9/0.10.00.10.10.00.00.00.10.20.30.2
Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio 11/13.718.028.43.43.82.21.97.93.83.63.6
Key macroeconomic assumptions
Real GDP growth (in percent)9.17.32.710.210.68.07.06.06.07.55.05.05.1
GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent)5.8-2.617.718.320.54.41.92.02.06.21.71.71.7
Effective interest rate (percent) 5/3.72.91.22.14.21.71.51.61.72.21.91.51.7
Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) 7/5.70.111.723.811.67.59.77.47.78.87.67.57.8
Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent)7.51.411.726.126.69.08.17.67.911.87.97.47.6
Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent)40.942.738.241.941.941.941.341.941.941.9
Memorandum item:
Nominal GDP (billions of US dollars)1.21.62.12.32.62.83.04.28.2
Source: Tajikistan authorities; and Fund staff estimates and simulations.

Includes external government and government-guaranteed (GGG) debt, not guaranteed debt of public enterprises, and debt serviced by NBT.

Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.

Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.

Assumes that NPV of public not guaranteed debt is equivalent to its face value.

Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.

Derived over the post-civil war period of 1998-2003.

Non-barter exports of goods and services.

Debt cancellation by Pakistan.

Current account and amortization payments minus FDIs.

Public debt minus not guaranteed debt of public enterprises.

Current account required to keep the debt-to-GDP ratio constant.

Source: Tajikistan authorities; and Fund staff estimates and simulations.

Includes external government and government-guaranteed (GGG) debt, not guaranteed debt of public enterprises, and debt serviced by NBT.

Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.

Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.

Assumes that NPV of public not guaranteed debt is equivalent to its face value.

Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.

Derived over the post-civil war period of 1998-2003.

Non-barter exports of goods and services.

Debt cancellation by Pakistan.

Current account and amortization payments minus FDIs.

Public debt minus not guaranteed debt of public enterprises.

Current account required to keep the debt-to-GDP ratio constant.

Table 2.Tajikistan: Government and Government-Guaranteed Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2002-23(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
ActualActualProjections
2002Historicall

Average 5/
Standard

Deviation 5/
2003200420052006200720082004-08

Average
201320232009-23

Average
Government and gov, guaranteed (GGG) debt1/81.663.738.137.135.334.734.135.935.740.337.3
o/w foreign-currency denominated81.663.738.137.135.334.734.135.935.740.337.3
Change in GGG debt-12.9-18.0-25.6-1.0-1.8-0.6-0.6-5.90.60.30.4
Identified debt-creating flows-10.0-17.3-13.20.21.62.42.0-1.42.21.92.1
Primary deficit1.32.32.02.32.14.24.34.64.13.93.93.93.9
Revenue and grants16.917.717.917.717.918.018.218.018.418.418.4
of which: grants0.20.70.70.50.50.50.30.50.20.00.1
Primary (noninterest) expenditure18.220.020.021.922.322.622.421.822.322.322.3
Automatic debt dynamics-11.3-19.6-15.2-4.0-2.7-2.2-2.1-5.3-1.7-2.0-1.9
Contribution from interest rate/growth differential-7.4-10.8-7.5-3.0-2.7-2.2-2.2-3.5-1.7-2.1-1.9
of which: contribution from average real interest rate0.4-3.3-1.4-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.1-0.2-0.1
of which: contribution from real GDP growth-7.9-7.6-6.1-2.8-2.4-2.0-2.0-3.1-1.7-1.9-1.8
Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation-3.9-8.8-7.8-1.00.00.00.0-1.70.1
Residual, including asset changes-2.9-0.7-12.4-1.2-3.4-3.0-2.6-4.5-1.6-1.7-1.7
NPV of GGG debt52.040.631.330.128.928.327.729.327.431.529.0
Gross financing need 2/6.94.24.16.86.66.96.46.15.55.75.5
NPV of GGG debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent)3/307.0230.0174.7170.1161.2157.6152.3163.2149.2171.3157.7
o/w external307.0230.0174.7170.1161.2157.6152.3163.2149.2171.3157.7
Debt service on GGG debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent)3/4/33.210.611.014.912.712.312.212.78.79.68.6
Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio14.220.327.75.26.15.34.79.83.33.63.5
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions
Real GDP growth (in percent)9.17.35.310.210.68.07.06.06.07.55.05.05.1
Average nominal interest rate on foreign currency debt (in percent)1.62.82.0-0.91.41.01.11.21.41.21.81.51.6
Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation)-4.48.913.2-12.4
GDP deflator (in percent)21.533.4131.928.119.36.85.05.05.08.24.84.84.8
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)16.610.720.720.810.718.18.97.84.710.04.75.05.1
Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent)0.60.60.00.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.6
Sources: Country authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Central government, NBT, and guaranteed debt of public enterprises.

Defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.

Revenues including grants.

Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.

Historical averages and standard deviations are derived over the past 6 years.

Sources: Country authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Central government, NBT, and guaranteed debt of public enterprises.

Defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.

Revenues including grants.

Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.

Historical averages and standard deviations are derived over the past 6 years.

Table 3.Tajikistan: Sensitivity Analyses for Key Indicators of Public External Debt, 2003-23(In percent)
ActualEst.Projections
20032004200520062007200820132023
NPV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Baseline4333313029292832
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2004-23 1/4340383635342411
A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2004-23 2/4334343333343748
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-054334343232313034
B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-05 3/4336403837363434
B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-054346545250494854
B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-05 4/4346575553514538
B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks4361858179766656
B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2004 5/4344424039383742
NPV of debt-to-exports ratio
Baseline1101001009594928491
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2004-23 1/1101221221161111077231
A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2004-23 2/110104107105107108113137
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-051101001009594928491
B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-05 3/110134182173170166145138
B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-051101001009594928491
B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-05 4/110141182173169165136109
B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks110158228216211206170135
B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2004 5/1101001009594928491
Debt service ratio
Baseline9.710.48.47.27.17.14.85.0
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2004-23 1/9.714.511.49.18.68.55.62.2
A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2004-23 2/9.712.29.78.48.48.67.68.7
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-059.712.29.47.87.67.86.35.2
B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-05 3/9.714.813.811.911.511.811.08.4
B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-059.712.29.47.87.67.86.35.2
B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-05 4/9.712.210.39.59.29.310.57.3
B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks9.713.812.711.811.411.513.19.0
B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2004 5/9.712.29.47.87.67.86.35.2
Memorandum item:
Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/4141414141414141
Source: Staff projections and simulations.

Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.

Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.

Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).

Includes official and private transfers and FDI.

Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.

Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.

Source: Staff projections and simulations.

Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.

Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.

Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).

Includes official and private transfers and FDI.

Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.

Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.

Table 4.Tajikistan: Sensitivity Analyses for Key Indicators of Government and Government Guaranteed Debt, 2003-23
ActualEst.Projections
20032004200520062007200820132023
NPV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Baseline4131302928282731
A. Alternative scenarios
A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages413229262320127
A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 20034131282422191413
A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/4132313030303456
B. Bound tests
B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-20054134353636374461
B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2004-20054134323130302933
B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shock4134323029292729
B4. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 20044149464342403638
B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 20044141403837363538
NPV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio2/
Baseline230175170161158152149171
A. Alternative scenarios
A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages2301811651441261106538
A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 20032301751571361201077569
A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/230176174167166164187304
B. Bound tests
B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2004-2005230190199198202204239331
B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2004-2005230187183173169164159178
B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks230188180169164157147159
B4. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 2004230274257241231219195207
B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2004230230224212207200191
Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio2/
Baseline10.611.014.912.712.312.28.79.6
A. Alternative scenarios
A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages10.611.415.512.411.09.93.30.8
A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 200310.611.014.912.712.312.28.79.6
A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/10.611.115.113.112.813.010.917.7
B. Bound tests
B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2004-200510.611.716.714.915.015.514.320.0
B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2004-200510.611.016.013.613.213.19.49.9
B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks10.611.516.413.513.012.78.58.5
B4. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 200410.611.815.713.713.413.510.511.9
B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 200410.611.019.716.516.015.711.711.8
Debt Service-to-GDP Ratio
Baseline1.92.02.62.32.22.21.61.8
A. Alternative scenarios
A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages1.92.02.72.22.01.80.60.2
A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 20031.92.02.62.32.22.21.61.8
A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/1.92.02.72.32.32.42.03.3
B. Bound tests
B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2004-20051.92.13.02.72.72.82.63.7
B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2004-20051.92.02.82.42.42.41.71.8
B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks1.92.12.92.42.32.31.61.6
B4. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 20041.92.12.82.52.42.41.92.2
B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 20041.92.03.53.02.92.92.12.2
Sources: Country authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of 20 (i.e., the length of the projection period).

Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.

Sources: Country authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of 20 (i.e., the length of the projection period).

Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.

Figure 1.Tajikistan: Indicators of Public External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2003–2023

(In percent)

Source: Staff projections and simulations.

Figure 2.Tajikistan: Indicators of Government and Government-Guaranteed Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2003–23 1/

(In percent)

Source: Staff projections and simulations.

1/ Most extreme stress test is test that yields highest ratio in 2013.

2/ Revenue including grants.

Statistical Appendix
Table A-1.Tajikistan: Basic Economic Data, 2000–04
Demographic indicators
Area (2002)143,100 km2
Arable land (2002)7,155 km2
Population as of Dec 31, 2004 (in thousand)6,732
Rate of population growth (in percent)1.9
Life expectancy at birth (1998)66.9
Men64.3
Women69.7
Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births, 1999)36.7
Hospital beds (per 10,000 inhabitants, 2002)62.2
Physicians (per 10,000 inhabitants, 2002)20.1
20002001200220032004
Prel.
Nominal GDP (in millions of somoni)1,8072,5123,3454,7586,158
Real GDP growth (in percent)8.310.29.110.210.6
Inflation (in percent, end of period)60.612.514.513.75.6
Inflation (in percent, average)32.938.610.217.17.1
(In percent of GDP)
Sectoral distribution of GDP
Agriculture27.026.526.325.221.6
Industry23.922.722.120.919.6
Trade18.319.119.919.019.7
Construction3.44.13.84.25.5
Other27.427.627.930.733.6
Balance of payments
Current account balance (In percent of GDP)-6.5-6.7-2.7-1.3-3.9
Gross official reserves (in months of imports)2.11.91.81.82.0
(In percent of GDP)
Consolidated government finances
Revenue13.915.116.717.317.9
Expenditure 1/15.216.316.816.417.6
Overall balance 1/-1.3-1.1-0.10.90.3
(Percent change from previous period)
Money and credit
Somoni broad money78.240.039.729.214.3
Credit to private sector90.254.320.210.957.9
Interest rate 2/34.418.523.14.96.2
Source: Tajik authorities.

Excludes externally-financed public investment program.

Lending rate for domestic currency denominated 3–6 months loans; end of year.

Source: Tajik authorities.

Excludes externally-financed public investment program.

Lending rate for domestic currency denominated 3–6 months loans; end of year.

Table A-2.Tajikistan: Nominal and Real GDP, 2000–04 1/
Nominal GDP

(In millions of somoni)
Real GDP

(Index, 2000=100)
Percent change

of real GDP
(Over the previous year)
20001,807100.08.3
20012,512110.210.2
20023,345120.29.1
20034,758132.510.2
20046,158146.510.6
(Over same quarter

of the previous year)
2000Q124314.93.8
Q230619.72.6
Q355533.120.2
Q470232.43.4
2001Q140116.07.6
Q249022.112.3
Q375736.911.5
Q486435.28.7
2002Q150817.59.3
Q268623.77.5
Q397940.59.8
Q41,17138.59.3
2003Q175519.612.1
Q21,03925.26.0
Q31,37443.47.2
Q41,59044.315.1
2004Q11,12321.49.1
Q21,23128.312.7
Q31,88649.714.6
Q41,91747.06.2
Source: State Statistical Committee.

The data for 2004 are preliminary.

Source: State Statistical Committee.

The data for 2004 are preliminary.

Table A-3.Tajikistan: Nominal GDP by Sector of Origin, 2000–04(In thousands of somoni; unless otherwise specified)
20002001200220032004
Share

(in percent)
Share

(in percent)
Share

(in percent)
Share

(in percent)
Share

(in percent)
Industry431,66123.9573,78922.8744,23022.2994,77720.91,206,86519.6
Agriculture487,96027.0669,80926.7886,81826.51,198,97025.21,330,01421.6
Construction61,0593.4103,6824.1127,8213.8199,8284.2338,6625.5
Trade330,01618.5483,39619.2671,42420.1903,98519.01,213,02219.7
Transport88,2704.998,4653.9123,4873.7180,7973.8338,6625.5
Supplies4,1530.23,2560.17,0250.29,5160.212,8810.2
Procurement
Other material sectors 1/5,7840.37,4500.38,3080.223,3950.519,0380.3
Nonmaterial services 1/248,18313.7358,67014.3463,65313.9742,21915.61,040,61316.9
Indirect taxes149,6818.3213,4848.5312,2349.3504,32910.6657,71610.7
GDP1,806,767100.02,512,000100.03,345,000100.04,757,816100.06,157,472100.0
Source: State Statistical Committee.

Since 1998, includes the State Statistical Committee’s estimate of the informal sector.

Source: State Statistical Committee.

Since 1998, includes the State Statistical Committee’s estimate of the informal sector.

Table A-4.Tajikistan: Production and Yields of Major Agricultural Crops, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
(In thousands of somoni at constant 2000 prices)
Crop production594,192642,143753,633828,184959,037
(In thousands of tons)
Production
Of which:
Raw cotton335453515537557
Grain550494596730734
Sweet corn3842559595
Feed corn226241299294295
Rice8239505959
Potatoes303308357473527
Vegetables354397473583679
Fruits16914414789144
Grapes110110812893
Hay290275376356443
(In kilograms per hectare)
Yield
Of which:
Raw cotton1,4101,7901,9301,9001,910
Grain1,2701,4301,8201,9901,970
Sweet corn2,7002,9503,5103,7703,540
Feed corn10,25011,75013,08014,80014,223
Rice3,7902,6102,8503,4603,000
Potatoes11,87012,55015,55017,74017,400
Vegetables11,37011,71013,89016,20018,300
Fruits2,4202,4902,4701,5202,400
Grapes3,2703,2902,4609503,100
Hay1,7141,0101,4301,3602,060
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-5.Tajikistan: Animal Husbandry, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
(In thousands of somoni at constant 2000 prices)
Animal husbandry121,611143,461156,838169,747203,187
(In thousands)
Total production3,3573,4323,6433,8864,113
Of which:
Beef cattle510532549583636
Milk cows552559587636642
Pigs11111
Sheep1,4781,4901,5911,6721,782
Goats744779842920975
Horses7271737477
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-6.Tajikistan: Agricultural Production by Type of Farm, 2000–04
Jan-Sep.
20002001200220032004
(In thousands of somoni at 2000 prices)
Total for all types of farms715,803785,604910,5251,001,9951,171,571
(In percent)
Total for all types of farms100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Of which:
Crop production83.081.782.883.081.0
Animal husbandry17.018.317.217.019.0
State and collective farms36.232.732.448.024.9
Of which:
Crop production95.096.296.697.095.6
Animal husbandry5.03.83.43.04.4
Personal lots63.867.367.652.075.1
Of which:
Crop production85.074.776.160.076.1
Animal husbandry15.025.323.940.023.9
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-7.Tajikistan: Allocation of Agricultural Land, 2004
TotalCollective and

Other Farms 1/
Private Farms

and Employees
Other 2/
(In hectares)
Total crops886,864451,815240,132194,917
Of which:
Irrigated land592,006328,997167,15895,851
Winter crops187,21561,08136,24589,889
Of which:
Winter wheat177,05056,69534,51985,836
Rye248220280
Barley9,9174,1661,6984,053
Spring crops209,11396,63068,69843,785
Of which:
Wheat157,81673,00151,41133,404
Barley27,57013,72210,0153,833
Maize8,3202,7149234,683
Rice11,3946,3622,5442,488
Oats681565116
Other grains and beans11,6522,9804,6124,060
Cotton284,367200,17884,1890
Flax21,1086,1628,5816,365
Tobacco79547124678
Potatoes25,9882,9665,39517,627
Vegetables30,2995,5053,81220,912
Fodder96,09865,11823,5567,424
Melons and gourds10,6713,8173,5003,347
Other industrial crops12,8676,9195,439119
Seed trees of vegetables and melons938463
(In percent of total)
Total crops100.050.927.122.0
Of which:
Irrigated land66.837.118.810.8
Winter crops21.16.94.110.1
Of which:
Winter wheat20.06.43.99.7
Rye0.00.00.0
Barley1.10.50.20.5
Spring crops23.610.97.74.9
Of which:0.00.00.00.0
Wheat17.88.25.83.8
Barley3.11.51.10.4
Maize0.90.30.10.5
Rice1.30.70.30.3
Oats0.10.10.0
Grains and beans1.30.30.50.5
Other grains and beans1.30.30.50.5
Other cereals3.71.71.50.5
Cotton32.122.69.5
Flax2.40.71.00.7
Tobacco0.10.10.00.0
Potatoes2.90.30.62.0
Vegetables3.40.60.42.4
Fodder10.87.32.70.8
Melons and gourds1.20.40.40.4
Other industrial crops1.50.80.60.0
Seed trees of vegetables and melons0.00.00.00.0
Source: State Statistical Committee.

Includes collective farms (kolkhozes), state farms (sovkhozes), state farms in transformation to collective farms (mezhozes), and other farms.

Personal plots, including 75,000 hectares of land distributed by presidential decree in 1997.

Source: State Statistical Committee.

Includes collective farms (kolkhozes), state farms (sovkhozes), state farms in transformation to collective farms (mezhozes), and other farms.

Personal plots, including 75,000 hectares of land distributed by presidential decree in 1997.

Table A-8.Tajikistan: Industrial Output by Sector at Constant Prices, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
Prel.
(In millions of somoni at 1998 prices)
Total industry710,482817,054885,686973,3691,112,561
(In percent)
Share in total industrial output
Of which:
Electric energy7.26.65.87.56.0
Fuel, refinery0.20.20.20.20.3
Nonferrous metallurgy56.354.248.944.647.2
Chemical and petrochemical1.71.20.91.11.3
Mechanical engineering and metal working0.90.70.91.01.6
Wood and wood-working, paper0.00.00.10.10.2
Glass0.30.40.40.30.2
Construction material0.80.71.11.41.5
Light industry15.512.717.821.717.8
Food10.716.917.915.415.0
Flour grinding6.16.35.86.58.7
Unallocated0.30.10.20.20.2
(Index 1990=100)
Total industry40.646.750.655.663.6
Of which:
Electric energy107.4111.3119.8127.7127.8
Fuel, refinery7.98.711.513.917.4
Nonferrous metallurgy59.466.369.872.782.4
Chemical and petrochemical10.58.88.913.821.4
Mechanical engineering and metal working14.717.723.831.569.5
Wood and wood-working, paper5.17.69.413.026.6
Glass26.542.545.441.345.8
Construction material3.64.25.68.59.9
Light industry35.737.747.155.561.8
Food16.825.326.026.831.2
Flour grinding34.437.938.653.262.3
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-9.Tajikistan: Selected Indicators of Industrial Production, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
High-capacity electrical transformers (in thousand kWh)37.461.258.963.978.8
Aluminum (in thousand tons)269.2289.1307.6319.4358.3
Cement (in thousand tons)54.868.989.2166.3193.6
Prefabricated reinforced concrete
construction elements (in thousand cubic meters)12.512.016.517.018.3
Construction bricks (in million units)29.923.929.232.539.5
Asbestos-roofing (in million sheets)2.31.02.22.90.6
Lumber/Timber (in thousand cubic meters)0.10.2
Caustic soda (in thousand tons)3.73.02.82.83.0
Fertilizers (in thousand tons)11.13.512.219.340.0
Detergents and soaps (in thousand tons)0.60.30.50.40.3
Knitwear (in million items)0.300.200.040.200.06
Cotton fabrics (in million square meters)11.513.619.516.818.4
Silk fabrics (in million square meters)0.30.20.10.00.0
Rugs, carpets (in million square meters)0.30.50.30.40.4
Hosiery (in million pairs)3.14.45.25.55.7
Shoes (in million pairs)0.10.10.10.00.0
Refrigerators and freezers (in thousands)1.71.71.40.61.9
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-10.Tajikistan: Electricity Output, Trade and Consumption, 2000–04(In billions of kilowatt hours)
20002001200220032004

Prel.
Output14.314.415.316.516.8
Of which:
Hydropower14.114.215.216.416.5
Thermal power0.20.20.10.10.3
Imports5.25.44.74.64.8
Exports3.94.13.94.64.4
Total internal consumption (by sector)15.615.716.116.5
Of which:
Industry5.86.16.26.7
Construction0.00.00.00.0
Agriculture4.34.54.24.3
Transport0.00.00.00.0
Other sectors0.50.40.40.4
Households2.82.52.92.6
Losses2.22.22.32.5
Discrepancy-1.0-0.10.10.0
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-11.Tajikistan: Labor Resources and Employment, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
(In thousands of persons)
Population 1/6,2506,3766,5076,6406,732
Of which:
Working age 2/3,2473,3973,5733,740
Nonworking age3,0032,9792,9332,900
Urban1,6601,6911,7201,758
Rural4,5904,6854,7874,882
Labor force participation rate 1/3/55555355
Total labor resources 4/3,1863,3013,4633,644
Of which:
Economically active population 4/5/1,7941,8721,9041,9321,918
Of which:
Total employment 4/1,7451,8291,8571,8851,897
Of which:
Government 6/558520517481
Collective farms364397425369
Cooperatives1100
Private farming641684721723
Clergy and other religious activity1111
Unallocated180227193311
Registered unemployment4943474741
Nonworking students 4/343357395399
Working age population at home 4/1,0491,0721,1641,313
(In percent of total employment)
Total labor resources182.6180.5186.0193.0
Of which:
Economically active population102.8102.4102.5102.5
Of which:
Total employment100.0100.0100.0100.0
Of which:
Government 6/32.028.427.825.5
Collective farms20.921.722.920.0
Cooperatives0.00.00.00.0
Private farming36.737.438.838.4
Clergy and other religious activity0.10.10.10.1
Unallocated10.312.410.4
Registered unemployment2.82.42.52.4
Total unemployment
Nonworking students19.719.520.821.2
Working age population at home60.158.663.969.7
Source: State Statistical Committee

End of year.

Working age is defined as follows: In 1997-2000, for men 15-59, women 15-54; in 2001, for men 15-60, women 15-55; from 2002 onwards, men is 15-62, women is 15-57.

Defined as the ratio of economically active over working age population.

Annual averages.

Comprises employed and registered unemployed.

Includes central and local governments, state enterprises and state farms.

Source: State Statistical Committee

End of year.

Working age is defined as follows: In 1997-2000, for men 15-59, women 15-54; in 2001, for men 15-60, women 15-55; from 2002 onwards, men is 15-62, women is 15-57.

Defined as the ratio of economically active over working age population.

Annual averages.

Comprises employed and registered unemployed.

Includes central and local governments, state enterprises and state farms.

Table A-12.Tajikistan: Registered Unemployment, 2000–04(In thousands of people; end of period)
20002001200220032004
TotalReceiving benefitsTotalReceiving benefitsTotalReceiving benefitsTotalReceiving benefitsTotalReceiving benefits
January49.80.742.20.543.71.646.00.642.80.4
February49.31.542.90.745.00.546.10.643.30.2
March49.24.141.72.946.24.946.61.642.40.4
April49.92.642.42.047.01.747.51.142.10.2
May50.42.543.32.147.92.447.50.742.30.6
June50.23.943.52.248.82.248.73.842.00.6
July50.31.344.01.748.81.549.51.542.10.4
August50.42.243.91.849.01.349.71.342.20.3
September50.04.144.41.748.92.546.32.540.61.1
October49.71.644.71.649.01.346.01.240.70.3
November49.71.044.21.748.11.445.41.140.40.5
December43.22.342.92.346.73.442.91.7
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-13.Tajikistan: Employment by Sector of Economy, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
(In thousands of persons; annual average)
Total employment1,7451,8291,8571,8851,897
Material sphere1,4161,4951,5161,554
Of which:
Agriculture1,1351,2181,2551,275
Industry121123122115
Construction36333131
Transport and communication42454345
Trade, supply and other81766588
Nonmaterial sphere326334341331
Of which:
Government27283428
Education, culture and art179180185183
Medical care, physical training and social security82797678
Scientific research5554
Communal services27293231
Other31497
(In percent of total employment)
Total employment100.0100.0100.0100.0
Material sphere81.181.881.682.4
Of which:
Agriculture65.066.667.667.6
Industry6.96.76.66.1
Construction2.11.81.71.6
Transport and communication2.42.52.32.4
Trade, supply and other4.74.13.54.7
Nonmaterial sphere18.718.218.417.6
Of which:
Government1.51.51.81.5
Education, culture and art10.39.810.09.7
Medical care, physical training and social security4.74.34.14.1
Scientific research0.30.30.30.2
Communal services1.51.61.71.6
Other0.20.80.50.4
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-14.Tajikistan: Sectoral Output, Employment and Productivity, 2000–03(Index 1991 = 100)
2000200120022003
Industry
Output42.248.552.657.9
Employment47.348.047.744.9
Productivity89.2100.9110.3128.9
Agriculture
Output48.252.961.367.4
Employment128.8138.2142.4144.6
Productivity44.438.343.046.6
Transport
Output
Employment 1/64.469.166.069.1
Productivity
Construction
Output
Employment27.829.728.429.7
Productivity
Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes transport and communications.

Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes transport and communications.

Table A-15.Tajikistan: Consumer Price Index, 2000–04
Overall CPIFoodstuffNonfoodServices
(Monthly percent change)
2003January3.71.70.925.4
February1.51.80.80.5
March2.53.40.30.3
April1.41.30.43.8
May-0.4-0.70.60.4
June-0.8-2.31.25.3
July0.40.61.1-9.0
August0.3-0.60.40.1
September1.11.20.61.5
October3.83.00.714.7
November0.60.20.92.6
December0.30.10.11.5
2004January0.70.10.15.8
February0.2-0.21.01.0
March0.1-0.10.00.9
April0.20.40.3-1.1
May0.10.32.8-6.3
June-0.3-0.40.10.0
July1.11.70.3-0.6
August0.50.40.61.0
September1.72.50.1-0.1
October1.10.40.27.4
November-0.3-1.10.53.1
December0.40.50.10.3
(Quarterly percent change; end-period)
2000Q14.95.44.02.0
Q211.313.53.33.8
Q314.115.311.12.9
Q420.720.620.722.8
2001Q15.06.11.71.0
Q23.34.00.70.6
Q3-1.4-2.73.50.7
Q45.25.54.30.7
2002Q12.93.51.52.0
Q22.83.11.22.2
Q34.25.20.83.7
Q43.84.32.71.8
2003Q17.97.12.126.4
Q20.2-1.72.29.7
Q30.41.22.1-7.5
Q44.73.31.719.4
2004Q11.0-0.11.07.9
Q20.00.33.2-7.3
Q33.44.71.00.3
Q41.2-0.20.911.1
(Annual percent change; end-period)
200060.666.344.234.0
200112.513.710.53.2
200214.517.06.39.9
200313.710.28.353.1
20045.64.66.411.4
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-16.Tajikistan: Wholesale Price Index, 2000–04
Overall WPIFoodstuffFuelLight Industry
(Monthly percent change)
2003January1.30.23.60.1
February2.70.30.02.7
March-0.60.11.4-0.3
April-2.30.0-1.90.0
May3.40.00.8-0.2
June-0.30.10.00.1
July0.70.10.30.9
August1.20.127.90.0
September-0.60.07.10.0
October3.43.5-2.20.0
November3.011.8-3.03.2
December1.82.72.40.2
2004January1.701.30
February2.20.19-0.6
March-0.7-0.1-35.1
April3.538.60.5
May-3.40-0.32.7
June2.60-1-0.3
July2.31.3-0.90.3
August-0.10.11.40.6
September1.500.20.2
October3.50.11.10.2
November-0.10.01.9-0.4
December1.40.00.9-0.4
(Quarterly percent change; end-period)
2000Q13.7-5.937.70.6
Q22.821.9-1.16.5
Q315.8-12.37.111.3
Q416.947.12.53.7
2001Q15.07.47.80.8
Q21.11.31.11.0
Q3-3.60.822.9-1.2
Q40.8-0.1-12.0-5.4
2002Q15.4-6.88.23.2
Q23.9-3.78.8-0.3
Q31.01.50.01.6
Q47.79.0-0.92.2
2003Q13.40.65.12.5
Q20.70.1-1.2-0.1
Q31.30.237.40.9
Q48.418.8-2.93.4
2004Q13.20.07.14.5
Q22.63.07.22.9
Q33.71.40.71.1
Q44.80.22.71.0
(Annual percent change; end-period)
200033.948.149.423.7
20019.437.723.7-6.0
200219.0-0.616.66.9
200314.321.038.56.9
200415.24.718.79.8
Sources: State Statistical Committee; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: State Statistical Committee; and Fund staff estimates.
Table A-17.Tajikistan: Monthly Wages, 2002–04(In somoni; unless otherwise specified)
Average Monthly WageMinimum

Wage
Real

Wage 2/
Percent

Change

in CPI
TotalIndustryAgricultureConstructionServices
2002
January26.5279.508.5056.4722.024.00233.51.6
February29.5280.4511.2454.6923.744.00257.60.9
March31.6492.0111.8861.8028.504.00275.00.4
April28.7083.0010.8273.6025.604.00241.93.1
May29.7085.3613.2869.5227.694.00249.40.4
June31.4184.4215.7080.8529.804.00265.7-0.7
July30.7386.4915.3573.4827.924.00257.90.8
August31.9290.2416.8477.6126.544.00266.50.5
September39.1894.1529.7983.3828.204.00317.92.9
October38.6294.3628.9678.5628.464.00312.10.4
November40.52106.0327.4196.5429.534.00325.50.6
December45.57111.7228.90115.6433.904.00356.12.8
2003
January38.3499.6915.0480.5628.544.00288.93.7
February38.77100.5515.3481.7429.454.00287.81.5
March40.23111.5715.52101.5232.644.00291.42.5
April39.96107.5115.8294.8934.385.00285.41.4
May39.94111.9617.02106.2434.995.00286.5-0.4
June42.58114.0219.98108.8939.985.00307.8-0.8
July42.67110.9222.04103.7636.475.00309.7-0.4
August41.52117.3021.19112.5235.035.00302.3-0.3
September52.59123.2938.36128.7438.735.00378.71.1
October60.26123.2556.77120.6837.565.00418.13.8
November55.58122.9342.82118.9239.855.00383.30.6
December63.51135.7844.68152.2547.075.00436.70.3
2004
January54.05124.6126.89119.2253.967.00369.10.7
February53.76127.2624.30120.3155.657.00366.30.2
March60.37149.6924.46150.2371.107.00411.10.1
April55.00144.9923.57144.7966.777.00373.80.2
May55.96152.3626.30155.5164.287.00380.10.1
June61.20154.2129.16163.2469.527.00416.8-0.3
July57.25146.1128.71158.2165.707.00385.61.1
August58.11148.8029.27152.8470.487.00389.30.5
September73.73156.2156.17179.1378.017.00485.61.7
October75.18174.5260.04166.2263.227.00489.81.1
November71.77157.4947.87308.0274.887.00469.0-0.3
December81.36161.4056.00207.5070.007.00529.50.4
Sources: State Statistical Committee; and Fund staff estimates.

The data in this table are based on preliminary monthly figures on wages and employment, while average annual wages reported in Table 18 are final and reconciled annual data. As a result, annual averages in Table 17 are not entirely consistent with the data reported in Table 18.

Index deflated by the CPI (July 1995=100).

Sources: State Statistical Committee; and Fund staff estimates.

The data in this table are based on preliminary monthly figures on wages and employment, while average annual wages reported in Table 18 are final and reconciled annual data. As a result, annual averages in Table 17 are not entirely consistent with the data reported in Table 18.

Index deflated by the CPI (July 1995=100).

Table A-18.Tajikistan: Average Monthly Wages by Sector, 2000–04 1/
20002001200220032004
(In somoni)
Total economy15.623.532.644.660.8
Of which:
Agriculture7.813.718.927.035.0
Industry47.171.292.5114.2144.1
Forestry5.37.010.713.020.7
Transportation31.048.969.6101.1147.6
Communication38.459.695.2149.0212.8
Construction38.955.474.8100.0150.8
Trade and supplies16.923.132.746.150.7
Housing and municipal services18.326.336.849.866.9
Health care6.78.912.717.122.8
Education11.617.325.634.443.4
Arts and culture11.518.324.233.840.7
Sciences16.423.434.844.866.5
Banking and insurance76.790.5118.5174.9230.9
General government23.929.949.263.374.2
Private enterprises35.0462.2588.6136.4
(Percent change)
Total economy34.150.938.537.136.3
Of which:
Agriculture44.676.038.342.629.5
Industry31.551.229.823.526.2
Forestry-8.732.152.953.953.9
Transportation33.357.842.545.246.0
Communication34.155.059.956.442.8
Construction5.042.435.033.850.8
Trade and supplies42.136.941.641.010.0
Housing and municipal services8.143.340.135.534.2
Health care50.531.543.434.833.2
Education51.749.248.434.526.1
Arts and culture39.558.432.439.820.3
Sciences0.043.048.628.848.3
Banking and insurance56.818.030.947.632.0
General government4.725.564.228.717.3
Private enterprises77.742.354.0
Source: State Statistical Committee.

Data are based on final and reconciled annual data on wages and employment, while average annual wages reported in Table 17 are preliminary monthly figures. As a result, annual averages in Table 18 are not entirely consistent with the data reported in Table 17.

Source: State Statistical Committee.

Data are based on final and reconciled annual data on wages and employment, while average annual wages reported in Table 17 are preliminary monthly figures. As a result, annual averages in Table 18 are not entirely consistent with the data reported in Table 17.

Table A-19.Tajikistan: General Government Operations, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
(In millions of somoni)
Total revenue2453825608241,104
Tax revenue233353501713934
Individual income tax2233395168
Enterprise profits tax1114212436
Payroll tax30456587120
Value-added tax4686159248349
Excise taxes916294957
Customs revenue2652607298
Taxes on aluminum and cotton5963638887
Property tax1115192834
Other internal indirect taxes1727435976
Other taxes33378
Non-tax revenue12295197130
Grants0081541
Expenditure3464626429081,273
Current225332459597770
Wages and salaries6782108133168
Goods and services82140182261370
Subsidies1312171923
Social safety net406089126166
Interest payments2438635943
Capital119127181310500
Domestically financed4874102182311
Externally financed PIP725479128188
Net lending12113
Balance on a cash basis (deficit -)-101-80-82-84-169
Financing101808284169
External1187586134271
Domestic-186-5-50-102
Of which: Privatization proceeds177312226
(In percent of GDP; unless otherwise specified)
Total revenue13.615.216.717.317.9
Tax revenue12.914.115.015.015.2
Individual income tax1.21.31.21.11.1
Enterprise profits tax0.60.60.60.50.6
Payroll tax1.71.81.91.81.9
Value-added tax2.53.44.85.25.7
Excise taxes0.50.60.91.00.9
Customs revenue1.42.11.81.51.6
Taxes on aluminum and cotton3.32.51.91.91.4
Property tax0.60.60.60.60.6
Other internal indirect taxes0.91.11.31.21.2
Other taxes0.10.10.10.10.1
Non-tax revenue0.71.11.52.02.1
Grants0.00.00.20.30.7
Expenditure19.218.419.219.120.7
Current12.513.213.712.612.5
Wages and salaries3.73.33.22.82.7
Goods and services4.55.65.55.56.0
Subsidies0.70.50.50.40.4
Social safety net2.22.42.72.62.7
Interest payments1.31.51.91.20.7
Capital6.65.15.46.58.1
Domestically financed2.62.93.13.85.1
Externally financed PIP4.02.12.42.73.1
Net lending0.10.10.00.00.1
Balance on a cash basis (deficit -)-5.6-3.2-2.4-1.8-2.7
Financing5.63.22.41.82.7
External6.53.02.62.84.4
Domestic-1.00.2-0.1-1.1-1.7
Of which: Privatization proceeds1.00.30.90.50.4
Nominal GDP (in millions of somoni)1,8072,5123,3454,7586,158
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Table A-20.Tajikistan: State Budget by Functional Classification of Expenditures, 2000–04(In millions of somoni; unless otherwise specified)
20002001200220032004
Total expenditure (excl. PIP)3464626429081,273
General service496691132117
Protection43577194134
Defense2229364775
Law enforcement2128354659
Social services119172233315437
Education366387112161
Health1624304362
Social protection424767109153
Other social services2538495160
Economic services375864101119
Interest payment2438635943
Others2174180236
Externally financed PIP725479128188
(In percent of GDP)
Total expenditure (excl. PIP)19.218.419.219.120.7
General service2.72.62.72.81.9
Protection2.42.32.12.02.2
Defense1.21.21.11.01.2
Law enforcement1.21.11.01.01.0
Social services6.66.97.06.67.1
Education2.02.52.62.42.6
Health0.91.00.90.91.0
Social protection2.31.92.02.32.5
Other social services1.41.51.51.11.0
Economic services2.12.31.92.11.9
Interest payment1.31.51.91.20.7
Others0.10.71.21.73.8
Externally financed PIP4.02.12.42.73.1
Memorandum item:
Nominal GDP (in millions of somoni)1,8072,5123,3454,7586,158
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Table A-21.Tajikistan: Operations of the Consolidated General Government, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
(In millions of somoni)
Revenue2453825608241,104
Republic and local budget216337495738985
Tax revenue204308444641855
Nontax revenue12295197130
Social Protection Fund30456587120
Expenditure3464626429081,273
Republic and local budget 1/3144175708071,107
Social Protection Fund324572101166
Overall balance (deficit -)-101-80-82-84-169
Financing101808284169
External1187586134271
Domestic-186-5-50-102
Of which: Privatization proceeds177312226
(In percent of GDP)
Revenue13.615.216.717.317.9
State budget11.913.414.815.516.0
Social security funds1.71.81.91.81.9
Expenditure19.218.419.219.120.7
State budget17.416.617.017.018.0
Social security funds1.81.82.12.12.7
Overall balance (deficit -)-5.6-3.2-2.4-1.8-2.7
Financing:5.63.22.41.82.7
External6.53.02.62.84.4
Domestic-1.00.2-0.1-1.1-1.7
Of which: Privatization proceeds1.00.30.90.50.4
Memorandum item:
Nominal GDP1,8072,5123,3454,7586,158
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Table A-22.Tajikistan: Accounts of the National Bank of Tajikistan, 2000-2004

(End-of-period stock; unless otherwise specified)1/

20002001200220032004
(In millions of U.S. dollars; unless otherwise specified)
Net international reserves-23.8-14.52.736.067.4
Gross assets87.295.796.2135.4189.3
Gross liabilities111.0110.293.599.5121.9
(In millions of somoni)
Net foreign assets-52.4-37.08.2106.3204.7
Gross assets191.9244.0288.5400.4574.8
Gross liabilities244.3281.0280.4294.1370.1
Net domestic assets171.5190.5176.9146.373.1
Net credit to general government46.8-31.1-9.3-77.0-192.3
Credit to the private sector149.6253.3205.2210.9221.2
Claims on banks148.737.634.139.065.6
Claims on private sector2.012.485.1171.9155.6
Other items, net-24.8-31.7-19.012.444.1
NBT bills0.0-0.2-9.0-8.5-5.4
Reserve money119.1153.5185.0252.6277.7
Currency in circulation96.2110.8140.8172.4204.8
Bank reserves18.632.535.863.370.3
Of which:
Required reserves9.98.811.923.944.7
Somoni7.67.05.59.516.5
Foreign exchange2.21.86.314.428.3
Other8.723.723.939.425.5
Somoni4.515.717.532.222.9
Foreign exchange4.38.06.47.22.6
Other deposits4.310.28.416.82.7
Somoni2.11.51.32.82.2
Foreign exchange2.38.77.114.00.5
Memorandum items:(12-month change as a percent of initial reserve money stock)
Net international reserves11.412.929.453.038.9
Net domestic assets39.915.9-8.9-16.5-29.0
Reserve money51.428.920.536.510.0
Official exchange rate (Sm/US$)2.202.553.002.963.04
Sources: National Bank of Tajikistan; and Fund staff estimates.

Data are based on official SDR/U.S. dollar and somoni/U.S. dollar exchange rates.

Sources: National Bank of Tajikistan; and Fund staff estimates.

Data are based on official SDR/U.S. dollar and somoni/U.S. dollar exchange rates.

Table A-23.Tajikistan: Monetary Survey, 2000–04 1/(In millions of somoni; end-of-period stock unless otherwise specified)
20002001200220032004
Net foreign assets-192.3-251.0-267.2-179.5-272.2
National Bank of Tajikistan-52.4-37.08.2106.3204.7
Commercial banks-139.9-214.0-275.4-285.8-476.9
Net domestic assets354.2486.5585.4580.2892.6
Net credit to general government37.1-36.9-16.5-93.7-217.9
Of which:
Somoni credits132.690.4154.2153.8155.4
Treasury bills0.75.53.30.30.3
Deposits (-)-36.9-46.9-73.0-139.5-207.6
Counterpart deposits-59.1-85.8-101.0-108.6-166.0
Credit to the private sector346.2575.2627.2695.51098.2
Of which: Credit excluding NBT100.3321.9456.1523.7942.6
Cotton financing365.0375.5626.2
Other items net-29.1-51.8-25.3-21.612.3
Broad money153.8215.3300.7388.7444.4
Somoni broad money106.8140.5194.4251.0264.9
Currency outside banks86.8103.6135.6158.1175.4
Deposits20.036.858.892.989.5
Foreign currency deposits47.074.8106.3137.7179.5
Bills payable 5/8.1.20.217.512.0175.9
Memorandum items:
Broad money (12-month percent change)78.240.039.729.214.3
Credit to the private sector (12-month percent change)90.254.320.210.957.9
Quarterly velocity (four-quarter average)3.73.43.13.03.8
Money multiplier1.31.41.61.51.6
Sources: National Bank of Tajikistan; and Fund staff estimates.

Data are based on official SDR/U.S. dollar and somoni/U.S. dollar exchange rates.

Sources: National Bank of Tajikistan; and Fund staff estimates.

Data are based on official SDR/U.S. dollar and somoni/U.S. dollar exchange rates.

Table A-24.Tajikistan: Credit to the Economy from Commercial Banks, 2002–04(In thousands of somoni; end of period)
200220032004
Mar.Jun.Sep.Dec.Mar.Jun.Sep.Dec.Mar.Jun.Sep.
Total credit to the economy640,877628,329592,096633,097726,986804,812801,630371,398730,4161,024,9561,096,645
From commercial banks
Of which:
From operating banks467,530458,339419,545454,700547,031624,775651,108222,148588,420875,011945,564
Of which:
Agroinvestbank378,335366,449329,114365,019442,031524,869525,50749,28952,63275,41880,622
Orionbank14,48915,86315,00013,55814,43017,38626,19732,93841,28248,91744,134
Tajiksodirotbank12,83015,78519,01219,82825,53928,99132,87134,17642,27050,85652,560
Khojentbank4,9844,8584,6804,2364,4994,0554,3174,1354,908
Somonbank 1/5,4605,8416,0836,0936,2205,8085,8515,646
Amonatbank6,8486,3135,8604,3653,9076,15413,74621,60521,03124,91227,532
Ganjina 2/516547567584538581636653629880719
Fonon 3/747085809095924491,0701,9672,908
Dehkon 4/1,6191,6251,6251,5951,6051,6301,6071,5321,5291,5041,498
Eskhata5347739951,0791,4772,1513,0095,2326,1279,11710,127
Ayom 5/737737
Central Asian Bank1,2891,522157108126207301734719
Tajprombank18,04519,26413,95614,92122,2066,0798,94628,28428,10235,44434,598
East-Credit Bank3,8392324,9984,7194,9974,5774,9187,2617,400
Kafolatbank5,5385,6215,8936,3806,2787,1627,8968,3328,7708,9518,717
Sokhibkorbank9,0369,25710,27610,89011,50612,22412,37412,81912,49413,11113,588
Olimp Bank1,0311,2741,2431,2441,5832,6492,6832,4622,8283,1963,317
Dushanbe 6/719703
Textinvestbank 7/1,6051,605
Trade financing 8/158158564
Gulsarabank 9/
Tijorat Bank Branch
STB-Investbank6,0366,4636,2426,875
Finansirovanie Torgovli692906963
Ziroat205
First MicroFinanceBank939
Kredit-Invest349473593590656263
Source: National Bank of Tajikistan.

NBT revoked license by resolution No 287 of December 29, 2003.

NBT revoked license and transformed the bank into a credit union by resolution No 201 of September 11, 2002.

NBT revoked license by resolution No 3 of January 18, 1998. Transformed into credit union by NBT’s resolution No 112 of July 18, 2000.

NBT revoked license by order No 224 of December 21, 2000. Transformed into credit union by NBT’s order No 85 of March 28, 2001.

NBT revoked license by order No 80 of March 19, 2001.

NBT revoked license by order No 78 of March 19, 2001.

NBT revoked license by resolution No 11 of July 15, 1999.

Credit union registered by NBT’s resolution No 188 of August 21, 2002.

Renamed as Olimp Bank by NBT’s resolution No 74 of March 15, 2003.

Source: National Bank of Tajikistan.

NBT revoked license by resolution No 287 of December 29, 2003.

NBT revoked license and transformed the bank into a credit union by resolution No 201 of September 11, 2002.

NBT revoked license by resolution No 3 of January 18, 1998. Transformed into credit union by NBT’s resolution No 112 of July 18, 2000.

NBT revoked license by order No 224 of December 21, 2000. Transformed into credit union by NBT’s order No 85 of March 28, 2001.

NBT revoked license by order No 80 of March 19, 2001.

NBT revoked license by order No 78 of March 19, 2001.

NBT revoked license by resolution No 11 of July 15, 1999.

Credit union registered by NBT’s resolution No 188 of August 21, 2002.

Renamed as Olimp Bank by NBT’s resolution No 74 of March 15, 2003.

Table A-25.Tajikistan: Average Annual Interest Rates, 2000–04(In percent; end of period)
20002001200220032004
Mar.JuneSep.Dec.Mar.JuneSep.Dec.Mar.JuneSep.Dec.Mar.JuneSep.Dec.Mar.JuneSep.Dec.
Interest rate on domestic currency loans
National Bank of Tajikistan
To banks20.221.618.420.620.620.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.016.815.010.010.010.0
Commercial banks
From 1 – 3 months41.332.619.918.619.624.618.121.312.913.713.714.712.912.013.012.215.126.226.3
From 3 – 6 months26.425.828.134.420.220.119.718.532.434.327.221.628.531.017.916.020.423.027.3
From 6 – 12 months22.522.726.324.323.624.122.823.126.724.920.722.625.421.626.426.724.924.527.1
Interest rates on domestic currency deposits
Demand deposits0.50.50.40.40.30.30.30.30.10.10.10.10.30.60.60.40.50.60.5
From 1 – 3 months35.034.541.341.341.622.627.825.512.512.012.714.815.316.015.014.913.413.413.9
From 3 – 6 months24.119.622.022.019.417.224.924.315.115.014.715.418.416.413.817.715.511.712.2
From 6 – 12 months24.924.119.619.611.515.917.124.414.814.314.515.316.617.720.819.418.319.515.6
Interest rate on foreign currency loans
Commercial banks
From 1 – 3 months15.814.945.819.522.627.029.429.114.025.213.720.517.831.430.322.923.424.426.6
From 3 – 6 months25.121.025.626.725.424.523.022.034.426.927.217.620.924.121.223.323.526.026.4
From 6 – 12 months22.326.120.420.221.119.121.523.422.124.320.725.125.825.124.925.123.923.426.8
Interest rates on foreign currency deposits
Demand deposits0.10.10.00.00.20.20.20.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
From 1 – 3 months22.124.124.223.923.022.121.216.313.913.711.614.810.68.58.114.08.28.113.4
From 3 – 6 months24.230.129.629.615.015.015.021.617.314.414.410.912.410.410.810.810.79.714.9
From 6 – 12 months13.49.613.113.214.413.313.714.517.217.816.616.218.214.415.714.614.916.612.7
Source: National Bank of Tajikistan.
Source: National Bank of Tajikistan.
Table A-26.Tajikistan: Balance of Payments, 2000–04(In millions of U.S. dollars)
20002001200220032004

Prel.
Current account-62-73-33-20-81
Balance on goods and services-19-133-161-259-399
Balance on goods-24-125-125-205-332
Exports788652699799915
Of which: aluminum424398399430573
cotton fiber9271128193162
Imports8117778241,0031,247
Balance on services4-8-36-54-67
Balance on income-36-72-57-90-80
Balance on transfers37131184329399
Of which: Migrants’ remittances, net 1/4865189313
Capital and financial account6364545584
Capital transfers5125149
Public sector (net)17-5932-211
Disbursements3622285567
Amortization 2/-18-27-18-23-278
World Bank13250025
AsDB90500
FDI 2/2493632272
Commercial banks NFA (- increase)24208363
Electricity credit2320406
Other capital and errors and omissions-51-18-12-26-80
Overall balance1-921353
Use of international reserves (- increase)-29-8-1-39-54
Financing items2818-21451
IMF (net)163-24-317
Purchases/disbursements2615111129
Repurchases/repayments1012351412
Other reserve liabilities20007
Arrears (+ increase)11-41-2300
Drawdown on Tajikistan’s claim on the CBR0027714
Exceptional financing 3/0550013
Memorandum items:
GDP (in millions of U.S. dollars)9551,0331,1931,5562,073
Current account balance (in percent of GDP)-6.5-7.1-2.8-1.3-3.9
Excluding remittances (in percent of GDP)-10.3-19.8-18.3-22.4-23.1
Terms of trade-1.6-2.0-7.55.1-1.4
Net international reserves-24-1533667
Gross reserves879696135189
(in months of imports)2.21.91.81.92.0
Debt service on public debt43.253.767.058.770.7
(in percent of exports) 4/9.611.513.69.610.4
Total public sector external debt1,2261,0171,0101,031822
(in percent of GDP)128.498.484.666.339.7
Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes small export receipts and import payments, which are misclassified.

In 2004 includes debt-for-equity swap with Russia.

Debt cancellation by Pakistan.

Excluding trade in alumina and electricity, which are on barter basis.

Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes small export receipts and import payments, which are misclassified.

In 2004 includes debt-for-equity swap with Russia.

Debt cancellation by Pakistan.

Excluding trade in alumina and electricity, which are on barter basis.

Table A-27.Tajikistan: Exports by Product, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
Prel.
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total exports, f.o.b787.6651.6699.1798.6915.0
Aluminum423.9398.4398.6429.6573.0
Cotton fiber91.871.0128.0192.7162.0
Electricity180.678.567.655.160.5
Other91.3103.7104.9121.2119.5
(Percent change)
Total exports, f.o.b14.3-17.37.314.214.6
Aluminum37.2-6.00.17.833.4
Cotton fiber12.0-22.780.350.5-15.9
Electricity3.4-56.5-13.9-18.59.8
Other-25.813.61.215.5-1.4
(Volumes, in units indicated)
Aluminum (thousand tons)274286305317352
Cotton fiber (thousand tons)7975141149134
Electricity (million kWh)3,9084,0473,8314,5974,743
Aluminum ($/T)1,5471,3931,3071,3561,626
Cotton fiber ($/T)1,1659429091,2911,206
Electricity ($/kWh)0.0460.0190.0180.0120.013
(Percent change)
Aluminum22.04.07.03.911.2
Cotton fiber-14.0-8.0101.09.09.0
Electricity2.03.6-4.019.019.0
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-28.Tajikistan: Imports by Product, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
Prel.
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total imports, f.o.b811.2777.0824.31,003.21,247.0
Alumina199.0184.0188.3235.8334.2
Natural gas36.427.022.424.333.2
Petroleum products62.773.270.279.6101.9
Electricity203.498.382.062.066.3
Grain and flour44.762.235.761.053.0
Other265.0332.3425.7540.5658.4
(Percent change)
Total imports, f.o.b.22.4-4.26.121.724.3
Alumina54.3-7.52.325.241.7
Natural gas1.1-25.8-17.08.536.6
Petroleum products16.116.7-4.113.428.0
Electricity13.6-51.7-16.6-24.46.9
Grain and flour-2.839.1-42.670.9-13.1
Other21.025.428.127.021.8
(In units indicated)
Alumina (thousand tons)546.0537.1601.0615.9685.1
Natural gas (thousand cubic meters)728.9571.8485.8531.6707.0
Petroleum products (thousand tons)202.2276.0278.3305.1363.4
Electricity (million kWh)4,342.45,396.44,659.44,617.64,676.3
Grains and Wheat flour (thousand tons)376.7499.0415.6412.7286.0
(Percent change)
Alumina22.1-1.611.92.511.2
Natural gas-2.8-21.6-15.09.433.0
Petroleum products-36.436.50.89.619.1
Electricity19.324.3-13.7-0.91.3
Grains and Wheat flour (thousand tons)15.532.5-16.7-0.7-30.7
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Source: State Statistical Committee.
Table A-29.Tajikistan: Trade Indices, 2000–04 1/
20002001200220032004
Prel.
I. Exports(Index; 1995=100)
Value101.283.789.8102.6117.5
Volume121.7126.2144.7154.8163.8
Unit value83.166.362.066.371.7
(Percent change)
Value18.4-17.37.314.314.5
Volume10.43.714.77.05.8
Unit value7.1-20.2-6.56.98.1
II. Imports(Index; 1995=100)
Value99.592.298.2119.7150.1
Volume98.9110.1108.8122.4132.2
Unit value100.683.890.397.8113.5
(Percent change)
Value20.5-7.36.521.925.4
Volume9.911.3-1.212.58.0
Unit value9.5-16.77.88.316.1
III. Terms of Trade(Index; 1995=100)
Terms of trade77.270.261.264.363.4
(Percent change)-4.2-9.1-12.85.1-1.4
Source: State Statistical Committee.Data based on Statistical Appendix Table 18. In 2004, SM 3 exchanged for US1.
Source: State Statistical Committee.Data based on Statistical Appendix Table 18. In 2004, SM 3 exchanged for US1.
Table A-30.Tajikistan: Destination of Exports, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
Prel.
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total, f.o.b.787.6651.6699.1798.6915.0
CIS354.4254.8196.8138.8127.6
Russia236.394.573.352.261.0
Uzbekistan102.4136.8102.167.466.0
Other15.823.521.319.20.6
Non-CIS433.2396.8502.3659.8787.4
Europe338.7306.3350.5394.7463.3
Asia94.584.7130.0263.5324.0
Other0.05.921.81.60.1
(Percent change)
Total, f.o.b.18.3-17.37.314.214.6
CIS15.8-28.1-22.8-29.5-8.1
Russia108.8-60.0-22.4-28.816.9
Uzbekistan-40.833.6-25.4-34.0-2.1
Other-21.148.9-9.1-10.0-96.9
Non-CIS20.5-8.426.631.419.3
Europe3.8-9.614.412.617.4
Asia184.0-10.453.5102.723.0
Other
(In percent of total exports f.o.b.)
Total, f.o.b.100.0100.1100.0100.0100.0
CIS45.039.128.117.413.9
Russia30.014.510.56.56.7
Uzbekistan13.021.014.68.47.2
Other2.03.63.12.70.1
Non-CIS55.061.071.982.686.1
Europe43.047.050.149.450.6
Asia12.013.018.633.035.4
Other0.01.03.10.20.0
Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table A-31.Tajikistan: Origin of Imports, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
Prel.
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total, f.o.b.811.2777.0824.31,003.21,247.0
CIS614.6538.0548.0727.6914.8
Russia105.0129.0164.0138.8333.0
Uzbekistan186.0151.0132.0108.4169.0
Other323.6258.0252.0480.4412.8
Non-CIS196.6239.0276.3275.6332.2
Europe83.067.081.0102.0163.5
Asia30.071.078.096.0124.5
Other83.6101.0117.377.644.2
(Percent change)
Total, c.i.f.13.5-4.26.121.724.3
CIS14.8-12.51.932.825.7
Russia5.022.927.1-15.4139.9
Uzbekistan-29.5-18.8-12.6-17.955.9
Other88.7-20.3-2.390.6-14.1
Non-CIS9.921.615.6-0.320.5
Europe-35.5-19.320.925.960.3
Asia36.4136.79.923.129.7
Other194.820.816.1-33.8-43.0
(In percent of total imports c.i.f.)
Total, c.i.f.100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
CIS83.081.066.572.573.4
Russia16.017.019.913.826.7
Uzbekistan27.030.016.010.813.6
Other40.034.030.647.933.1
Non-CIS17.019.033.527.526.6
Europe12.011.09.810.213.1
Asia4.07.09.59.610.0
Other1.01.014.29.45.4
Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table A-32.Tajikistan: Public External Debt by Creditor, 2000–04
20002001200220032004
Est.
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total public debt1,2261,0171,0101,031822
Bilateral532.0530.4484.7467.7213.0
Uzbekistan130.0117.2104.494.094.0
Russia312.5323.3299.7299.750.0
United States22.221.220.219.318.3
Turkey25.723.120.518.015.4
Kazakhstan18.818.812.112.112.1
Pakistan13.013.013.013.00.0
China0.00.00.00.00.0
India7.07.58.00.00.0
Kyrgyz Republic2.01.71.41.10.8
Iran0.83.93.93.93.9
Belarus0.00.00.00.60.6
Kuwait Fund0.00.71.44.710.9
Saudi Fund0.00.00.01.47.0
Multilateral363.5369.4405.8459.6551.6
IMF110.8110.292.099.8115.5
European Union73.345.852.347.844.4
World Bank146.3171.9206.5226.4277.9
Islamic Development Bank8.311.416.225.334.6
Asian Development Bank21.625.133.453.270.1
OPEC Fund3.15.05.47.19.1
Commercial credits 1/331.0117.4119.3103.457.6
Government guaranteed22.360.253.063.225.1
Non-guaranteed308.757.266.340.332.5
(In percent of total debt)
Bilateral43.452.148.045.425.9
Multilateral29.636.340.244.667.1
Commercial credits27.011.511.810.07.0
(In percent of GDP)
Total debt128.398.484.666.339.7
Bilateral55.751.340.630.110.3
Multilateral38.035.734.029.526.6
Commercial credits34.611.410.06.62.8
(In percent of exports) 2/
Total debt271.5217.5204.3168.4120.4
Bilateral117.7113.498.176.431.2
Multilateral80.479.082.175.180.8
Commercial credits73.325.124.116.98.4
Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Credits to public enterprises in Tajikistan.

Exports of goods and services, excluding barter trade in alumina and electricity.

Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Credits to public enterprises in Tajikistan.

Exports of goods and services, excluding barter trade in alumina and electricity.

Table A-33.Tajikistan: Public Sector External Debt Service, 2000–04
Est.
20002001200220032004
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total debt service43.253.767.058.770.7
Russia8.89.16.512.26.1
United States2.00.71.61.61.6
Turkey0.72.72.73.13.0
Uzbekistan12.70.013.011.61.2
IMF11.713.535.314.312.4
World Bank0.40.41.31.82.2
Other6.927.36.514.144.2
Interest15.015.214.021.514.0
Russia8.89.16.512.26.1
United States0.70.70.60.60.6
Turkey0.70.20.10.60.5
Uzbekistan1.10.00.31.21.2
IMF1.81.60.70.50.6
World Bank0.40.41.31.82.2
Other1.53.34.44.72.8
Principal28.238.553.037.357.0
Russia0.00.00.00.00.0
United States1.30.01.01.01.0
Turkey0.02.62.62.62.6
Uzbekistan11.60.012.810.50.0
IMF9.911.934.613.811.8
World Bank00000
Other5.424.02.19.441.7
(In percent of GDP)
Total debt service4.55.25.63.83.4
Interest1.61.51.21.40.7
Principal3.03.74.42.42.7
(In percent of relevant exports)
Total debt service9.611.513.69.610.4
Interest3.33.22.83.52.0
Principal6.28.210.76.18.3
Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table A-34.Tajikistan: Exchange Rates and U.S. Dollar Wages, 2000–04
Somoni

per

U.S. dollar
Nominal Exchange Rate Indices 1/2/Real Exchange Rate Indices 1/ 2/Average Monthly

Wages (in US$)
AverageU.S.

dollar
Russian

ruble
AverageU.S.

dollar
Russian

ruble
TajikistanRussia
20001,7407.42.815.51951611959110
January1,5508.63.418.7198164211988
February1,5928.43.218.1192157204988
March1,6318.13.117.41901551991099
April1,6378.13.117.3196159204999
May1,6618.13.016.92041652069101
June1,6817.82.916.41971631999108
July1,9007.12.714.71771481768114
August1,9586.92.614.11811511778115
September2,0506.82.513.819115818310119
October2,2006.62.413.32061701949122
November2.206.22.312.52071721947124
December2.206.12.312.620217119110144
20012.385.92.112.119416717710152
January2.285.92.212.31951681869131
February2.355.82.112.01911651809127
March2.355.82.112.11941671799144
April2.355.92.112.11981701818139
May2.355.92.112.22011721829143
June2.356.02.112.320017117910151
July2.356.02.112.320017117810155
August2.385.82.112.119116517410159
September2.405.82.112.118916417214157
October2.405.92.112.219116617311162
November2.465.82.012.019016517111166
December2.515.72.011.818916517013189
20025.21.811.317616016012180
January2.555.62.011.818816616810156
February2.655.61.911.718716416611155
March2.685.41.911.518216016212168
April2.685.41.911.518516316511170
May2.705.31.911.518116316211170
June2.705.21.911.517716116112176
July2.715.21.811.517516216111186
August2.795.11.811.317315815811192
September2.924.91.710.917215715713185
October2.954.81.710.616715315213188
November2.954.81.710.716515315114191
December3.004.71.710.516515515115222
20033.044.31.69.916016414415233
January3.074.61.710.516616015212189
February3.084.51.610.216215814813195
March3.094.41.610.116416114913204
April3.094.41.610.016516414813214
May3.094.31.69.915816314413216
June3.094.21.69.815516214014229
July3.094.21.69.715516013814242
August3.094.31.69.715515913813247
September3.054.31.69.815716114017241
October2.994.21.69.715916814320248
November2.964.31.79.816217214319263
December2.934.21.79.816017514322306
20042.904.21.79.615617613521290
January2.914.21.79.715817714019258
February2.914.21.79.715817913918274
March2.924.31.79.715917813821285
April2.984.31.79.716017813718289
May3.004.31.79.816017713719285
June3.024.31.79.715617413520301
July3.034.21.79.615417413319305
August3.024.21.79.615417313319315
September3.034.11.79.615617513424304
October3.024.11.79.515517613425304
November3.034.01.79.315117512924246
December3.043.91.69.114517512627313
Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

May 1995=100. Using period average exchange rates. The real exchange rate indices and average nominal exchange rate index are based on INS data. An increase denotes appreciation.

Sources: Tajik authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

May 1995=100. Using period average exchange rates. The real exchange rate indices and average nominal exchange rate index are based on INS data. An increase denotes appreciation.

1Prepared by Alexei Kireyev.
2In addition to public sector external debt, which is the subject of analysis in this chapter, there is private external debt incurred mainly by the cotton sector. Data on this debt are not currentl yavailable, but can be approximated by foreign liabilities of Kredit-Invest, the bank involved in cotton financing, which reached $150 million (7 percent of GDP) in 2004.
3Debt sustainability in Low-Income Countries—Proposal for an Operational Framework and Policy Implications (www.imf.org).
4The coverage of public sector external debt in the external framework is slightly broader than in the fiscal framework. Compared to the former, the latter uses a concept of government and governmentguaranteed (GGG) external debt. Thus, it excludes debts of public enterprises not guaranteed by the government, which in Tajikistan is very small (about 2 percent of GDP).

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