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Portugal—Selected Issues

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund
Published Date:
January 1998
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IV. Current Account Fluctuations: Responding to Current and Expected Income Changes57

126. This chapter attempts to apply and test an intertemporal model of the current account for Portugal. Specifically, it attempts to investigate the extent to which fluctuations in the current account balance over the last forty years reflect optimizing behavior as regards saving decisions on the part of Portuguese households.

127. Approaching external performance from the perspective of emphasizing that the current account balance essentially reflects the extent to which a country relies on foreign savings to finance its consumption and investment needs is of particular relevance in view of the prospective start of EMU and the growing importance of international capital movements. In the past, exchange rate fluctuations could act as an important channel through which changes in residents’ desired net savings could be accommodated. EMU, however, will eliminate the possibility of exchange rate changes among Portugal and its main trading partners. In this context, the effects in question will be transmitted through (sometimes subtler but more persistent) variations in real economic variables. The elimination of exchange rate movements among EMU participants is likely, on the other hand, to promote capital flows. This would enhance the possibility for countries to offset temporary drops in domestic income by availing themselves of external savings, thereby smoothing their consumption schedule. These developments would tend to assign special relevance to intertemporal approaches to the current account. The “consumption smoothing” approach, although dispensing with direct recourse to the exchange rate as an explanatory variable, subsumes this and other economic variables in the factors conditioning agents’ optimal saving schedule and accompanying borrowing and lending flows.

128. In this chapter, a simple intertemporal model based on the permanent income hypothesis is estimated and used for assessing the behavior of Portugal’s external accounts. Section A presents a general discussion of the approach, followed in Section B by a description of the model. Empirical results are discussed in Section C, the main findings in Section D, and conclusions drawn in Section E.

A. The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account

129. The intertemporal approach to the external accounts investigates the extent to which the current account balance reflects an “optimal” path of domestic savings and consumption arising from a model of optimal borrowing and lending. This class of model predicts that the amount of foreign savings absorbed by the economy responds primarily to agents’ desire to smooth consumption, in view of expected changes in disposable income, and subject to the external solvency of the country. This approach can entail at least two broad sets of policy implications. First, to the extent that the actual current account deviates from its “optimal” level, one may inquire what distortions or constraints are limiting the ability of agents to smooth consumption through borrowing and lending. Second, as the approach builds on partial equilibrium models, wide fluctuations of the “optimal” current account prompt questions about underlying imbalances conditioning agents’ decisions. In answering these questions, exogenous external shocks and government policies would emerge as natural candidates for scrutiny. In particular, a large “optimal” deficit may not imply a sustainable situation, but an extreme (although optimal from the point of view of economic agents) response to a serious macroeconomic imbalance. For instance, if the fiscal policy stance is perceived as unsustainably lax, but imported durable goods are more sheltered from taxes than domestic financial assets, the optimal reaction of residents in anticipation of a reversal of such a stance could lead to a marked deterioration of the current account.

130. The consumption smoothing approach to analyzing the current account is based on the permanent income theory of consumption and saving. Essentially, this theory postulates that forward-looking agents choose their consumption level taking into account their permanent income—broadly, the constant income yielded by their net wealth. They will, therefore, decrease their saving whenever new information leads them to expect their income to increase. The model will, therefore, predict a very different impact on the current account of a change in income, depending on whether the change is perceived as temporary or permanent.58 This reasoning would thus imply that a decline in national income which is expected to be temporary will be accompanied by a temporary deterioration in the current account, as agents would not alter their consumption schedule. Instead, they would avail themselves of foreign savings, counting on a rebound of the economy. By contrast, after a permanent shock (i.e., a shock that reduces permanent income as it will not be reversed in the future), the current account should not change, as agents should instead fully adjust their consumption schedule to the new situation.

131. The “optimal” current account balance thus depends fundamentally on agents’ expectations about future income. This, of course, complicates the calculation of such a balance on the basis of the observation of macroeconomic variables, as expectations are not observable. While past behavior of income can provide useful information about its future path, it hardly reflects the expectations that economic agents can formulate based on all the information they have available at each period. In particular, such projections may not capture expected policy changes that may have a bearing on future income, or within-period external shocks.

132. Although the information set used by agents could be approximated by expanding the number of variables used to estimate future income, Campbell (1987) and Campbell and Shiller (1987) suggest another approach. They note that, under some not overly restrictive assumptions (notably that income follows a random walk), the permanent income theory predicts a particular joint behavior of saving and income, and makes saving itself the best instrument to forecast changes in income. This permits the econometrician to extract the “optimal” current account from the actual current account and observed changes in income. Campbell’s insight has been extensively used to analyze savings decisions and, in particular, the current account (Ghosh, 1995; Ghosh and Ostry, 1994; Sheffrin and Woo, 1990).59 It permits to test the fit of the consumption smoothing model statistically, and to compare “optimal” and actual current account balances over time (it also permits to use the observed current account to forecast changes in national income). The model is described in greater detail in the next section. The hurried (or less technically inclined) reader can forego this section and pass on to the subsequent sections, where the empirical results are presented and analyzed.

B. A Present-Value Model of the Current Account

133. The application of the permanent income theory to the analysis of the current account starts with a representative agent maximizing a time-separable utility function U=Σtatu(ct), where a is the discount rate and ct is consumption at time t, under a sequence of budget constraints:

where yt is the disposable income, and bt is the holdings of an indexed bond. Under certain conditions (such as a quadratic utility function, and a constant real interest rate r), it can be shown that at each period the optimal consumption (c*) will amount to a fixed fraction of the present value of the expected stream of future income plus the current yield of the bond b (see Campbell, 1987). Optimal saving (s*) is, in turn, equal to the expected present value of future changes in income:

Which implies that

cannot be forecast on the basis of information available at time t−1, as it reflects the revision from t−1 to t in the expected value of future income.

134. Simple manipulation of (1), (2), and (4) will show that changes in optimal consumption cannot be forecast either. Moreover, under the assumption that changes in income are stationary, it is easy to see that saving (as the present value of future changes in income) will also be stationary, while consumption will be a random walk. This will imply that the vector w comprising total income (i.e., including the yield of the bond) and consumption is cointegrated (saving being the difference between the two terms). Therefore, the vector w has an error-correction representation, in which changes in income are predicted using lagged changes in income and consumption, together with lagged deviations of consumption from income (i.e., roughly, lagged saving).

135. Although an error-correction model is not a VAR, it can be put into VAR form (see Campbell, 1987). In the case at hand, equation (3) allows the model to be expressed as a VAR relating current and lagged saving and changes in income. This is so because equation (3) includes both the variable being forecast (changes in income), and the optimal forecast, that is, the variable that best captures the information available about future changes in income (saving). The number of lags in the VAR will correspond to the number of lags in the error-correction model that would make the forecast error a white noise. Empirically, the number of lags will be chosen based on the fitting of the VAR.

136. The above results can be extended to an economy with production, investment, and government at the cost of a few additional assumptions. These boil down to postulating that investment is optimally chosen to maximize the country’s wealth and that the government relies on nondistortionary taxes (as Ricardian equivalence is implicit in the representative agent assumption, the solvency assumption extends to the government budget constraint). In this case, Fisherian separability implies that investment decisions may be treated as exogenous to the consumption/saving rule (Sheffrin and Woo, 1990).60 The relevant income flow z to be considered comprises national income net of public consumption and total investment. In this case, the optimal external account can be written as:

137. Under the separability hypothesis discussed, the reasoning developed in the previous paragraphs is still valid, and the auto correction model can be transformed into a bivariate vector autoregression, with lagged saving (i.e., lagged current account balances) and lagged changes in income explaining current savings and changes in income:6162

where εt is a white noise. This system may be written more compactly as:

where xt=[Δztcat],, and the £-step ahead expectation of x, is given by:

In this case, (5) becomes a geometric sum and the current account can be expressed as follows:

Note that, owing to the restrictions mentioned above, the expression of the optimal current account turns out to be a combination of the contemporaneous actual current account and change in income.

C. Empirical Results

138. Two set of estimations were performed, reflecting the importance of international transfers in the case of Portugal. The first estimation starts from national disposable income (as measured in the recently released “long series” of the national accounts). In this case, the disposable cashflow corresponds to national disposable income, minus government consumption and total investment net of international capital transfers. The relevant saving concept is the current account balance minus capital transfers from the European Union. The second estimation uses less precise concepts which, however, permit extending the analysis to more recent years (the “long series” end in 1993). In the second estimation, the disposable cashflow corresponds to GDP net of government consumption and total investment, and the current account includes capital transfers. Results varied relatively little, and the discussion will thus concentrate on the second estimation.

139. As a first step, the saving variable (i.e., the current account at constant prices) was tested for stationarity, the hypothesis of a unit root being rejected at the 10 percent significance level. The rejection of the hypothesis of nonstationarity of the current account can be interpreted as evidence of long-run current account solvency.63 The VAR model was estimated with the number of lags specification being determined based on the Akaike and Schwarz criteria. While the Akaike criterion was essentially indifferent between one and three lags, the Schwarz criterion unmistakably favored the one-lag specification.

140. The coefficient estimates for the VAR (table below) indicate that the information in the current account is relevant in estimating future changes in the disposable cashflow. Indeed, the coefficient (−0.18) is correctly signed and significant. Moreover, a Granger causality test indicates that the information on the current account makes a significant contribution to predictions of changes in disposable income (the hypothesis of block exogeneity, i.e., of non-Granger causality is rejected at 2.5 percent significance level). Therefore, increases in saving tend to anticipate a decline in income, or conversely, a deterioration of the current account reflects expectations of an improvement in the disposable cashflow in the period ahead.

VAR Parameters and Implications for the Γ vector
a. VAR Parameters
dzt-1Standard errorcat-1Standard error
dz0.58*0.12−0.18*0.09
ca0.000.150.72*0.11
b. Implied Γ vector
ΓyStandard errorΓcaStandard error
−1.25*0.641.15*0.71
Note: * denotes significance of-the coefficient at 5 percent level. (Estimation period 1953-93).
Note: * denotes significance of-the coefficient at 5 percent level. (Estimation period 1953-93).

141. The analysis of the vector Γ, also confirms the relatively good fit of the model.64 If the actual current account agreed completely with the optimal current account predicted by the permanent income hypothesis, the first component of the vector would be zero, and the second would be one. While Γy lies somewhat away from its theoretical value, Γca closely agrees with it, and overall the model cannot be rejected at a 10 percent significance level.65

D. Main Findings

142. In view of the general acceptance of the statistical restrictions implied by the consumption smoothing hypothesis, it would be interesting to verify the predictions of the model. To get a grasp of these predictions, the actual current account should be compared to the “optimal” account. The two series move remarkably closely over the forty-year period (Figure 19), with significant divergences occurring only in a few instances. Most notable among these occasions are the years in which Portugal entered into stand-by arrangements with the Fund (1978 and 1983), suggesting that liquidity constraints were binding at the time. Another instance when the model’s predictions and the actual current account diverged was in 1989-90. While the “optimal” current account deteriorated, the actual current account balance improved. This improvement reflected in large part the sharp increase in taxes in 1989 (20 percent in real terms), following income tax reform and an accompanying change in the collection period, which entailed the collection of taxes levied on income received in 1988 and 1989 (income tax collection grew by 35 percent in real terms). The effect of such tax increases on households’ disposable income, coupled with a liquidity shortage due to credit restraint, resulted in a rapid deceleration of private consumption, notably of durable goods (Bank of Portugal, 1990). Credit restraint stemmed in some cases from government action (e.g., with respect to the financing of car purchases), but it would appear that, in the event, liquidity constraints in general impinged on consumers’ ability to offset the temporary reduction in disposable income entailed by the change in the timing of tax collection.

Figure 19.Portugal: Consumption Smoothing and the Current Account

(Actual and “optimal” current account as percentage of GDP)

Source: Staff calculations.

143. The predictions of the model for recent years appear quite intuitive. It is noteworthy that, as signs of a slowdown in economic activity in the rest of EU started to emerge in 1992, the optimal current account improved, as if in anticipation of a negative shock to income in Portugal. In the same vein, the balance showed a deterioration in 1993, followed by some improvement in 1994 as economic activity firmed.

144. The success of the model in tracking the actual current account over the last forty years is somewhat surprising, in view of the existence of capital controls as recently as the early 1990s. This behavior, which has been observed also in some other small European economies (e.g., Denmark and Sweden),66 appears to contradict the notion popularized by Feldstein and Horioka (1980) that international capital flows react insufficiently to changes in desired saving. Indeed, the variance of the optimal current account of Portugal is close to that of the actual current account. This suggests that, except on occasions of a very large widening of the current account deficit, Portugal has not faced major borrowing constraints.

145. The fact that the “optimal” current account shows relatively large swings can, on the other hand, be seen as consistent with the stylized fact that the business cycle in Portugal is very pronounced, as noted in Chapter I. While external shocks appear to have had a strong impact on the economy, shocks to income can probably also be traced to domestic fiscal or monetary policy. For instance, while the current account deteriorated following the two oil shocks, policy actions may have also contributed to this outcome. A deterioration of the current account can be exacerbated if corrective policies perceived as required to redress some macroeconomic imbalance, while amply anticipated, are delayed.67 In these cases, financial saving may be diverted toward durable goods, with a further impact on the current account (since a good proportion of these goods is imported). Fluctuations of emigrants’ remittances, which have at times contributed to the observed swings in the current account, could also be seen under the light of optimal saving behavior in anticipation of policy changes (Schmitt, 1981 conjectures that they react inter alia to anticipation of changes in the exchange rate and financial policies).68 It would be of interest to test these conjectures using the recently released “long series,” but such work extends beyond the scope of the present paper.

146. Finally, the deterioration of the optimal balance since 1995 could be interpreted as agents’ reactions to increasingly positive expectations, which were most likely not previously anticipated. In particular, the decline in saving may reflect the firming of the prospects of an early participation in EMU, with the associated perception that participation will strengthen economic performance. The anticipated acceleration of growth (fueled also by factors such as the 1998 World Expo) would thus justify a temporary deterioration of the current account. If this is the case, and provided financial policies remain prudent, a narrowing of the current account deficit would be likely looking forward.

E. Conclusion

147. Portugal’s current account seems in good measure to reflect a desire on the part of residents to smooth consumption. A simple intertemporal model aimed at explaining fluctuations in the current account based on the permanent income hypothesis could not be statistically rejected. Moreover, the “optimal” current account implied by the model tracked the actual current account quite closely. The emergence of a deficit in the optimal current account in recent years appears to signal agents’ expectations of a further acceleration of economic activity in the period ahead. The model would predict, however, that the current account deficit should narrow as the expected positive events, largely of an exceptional nature, materialize.

References

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    ObstfeldMaurice and KennethRogoff1994“The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account,”NBER Working PaperNo. 4893.

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57

Prepared by Joaquim Levy.

58

The intertemporal model treats investment decisions as separate from saving decisions.

59

Ostry and Levy (1995) use a similar approach to study household saving in France.

60

For an empirical investigation of the correlation between investment and the current account in developed economies see Glick and Rogoff (1993).

61

For clarity the system is assumed to have only one lag. A larger number of lags can be easily accommodated by stacking the lagged variables in a vector, and making the appropriate choice of coefficients in the conformed matrix.

62

Saving enters the VAR in a detrended form. The reason for this is that although saving is stationary, any divergence between the interest r rate and the subjective rate of time preference a will introduce a trend into the saving function (Caballero, 1990). The deterministic trend of saving is added back when “optimal” values are compared with actual values.

63

The hypothesis of a unit root in changes in income was rejected at 1 percent significance level.

64

Varying the interest rate in the 3–10 percent range did not alter the results substantially. Figures reported in the table are for an interest rate of 5 percent.

65

The inference is based on a Wald test of the joint hypothesis that the value of the first component is zero and that of the second is 1.

66

Sheffrin and Woo (1990) report results for Denmark and Obstfeld and Rogoff (1994) report results for Sweden.

67

The impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes on consumption has been examined in a somewhat different context by Bertola and Drazen (1993).

68

The extent to which the model may have picked up “optimal” reactions to anticipated policy changes—in particular of the exchange rate regime—illustrates how the approach, while abstracting from fluctuations in the exchange rate, subsumes the information relevant for agents’ decisions. On the other hand, the assumptions embodied in the model should be kept in mind. In particular, a rigorous interpretation of the assumption of fixed interest rate would limit the extent to which saving decisions can be attributed to expectations of changes in the real return on financial assets (such expectations can nevertheless be accommodated in more elaborate models).

Table 1.Portugal: Aggregate Demand
199119921993199419951996
(In billions of escudos, at current prices)
Private consumption7,244.58,346.98,887.79,382.39,973.610,575.8
Public consumption1,955.72,242.12,420.12,566.62,778.13,013.9
Investment3,087.73,543.93,406.93,624.93,836.84,146.3
Gross fixed investment2,987.73,426.53,319.13,512.43,670.34,017.2
Change in stocks100.0117.487.7112.5166.5129.1
Total domestic demand12,287.914,132.914,714.715,573.916,588.517,736.0
Exports (goods and services)3,565.63,633.53,701.24,242.24,923.05,209.4
Aggregate demand15,853.617,766.418,415.919,816.021,511.522,945.3
Imports (goods and services)4,604.84,817.34,739.75,382.46,004.86,471.3
GDP11,248.812,949.013,676.214,433.615,506.716,474.0
(Percentage change at constant prices)
Private consumption5.24.6−0.30.22.02.8
Public consumption3.21.5−1.01.61.91.1
Investment1.86.1−8.33.33.26.1
Gross fixed investment2.55.6−7.62.71.97.4
Total domestic demand4.04.5−2.41.12.33.3
Exports (goods and services)2.14.6−0.610.011.78.5
Aggregate demand3.54.5−2.02.94.34.5
Imports (goods and services)6.411.4−4.79.99.77.5
GDP2.21.7−1.10.52.33.3
(Percentage change, implicit deflators)
Private consumption12.110.26.85.44.23.1
Public consumption23.613.09.04.46.27.3
Investment11.28.24.83.02.51.9
Gross fixed investment11.68.74.93.02.51.9
Total domestic demand13.610.16.74.74.13.5
Exports (goods and services)0.2−2.62.54.23.9−2.4
Aggregate demand10.27.25.84.64.12.1
Imports (goods and services)0.5−6.13.23.41.70.3
GDP14.813.26.85.05.02.8
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.
Table 2.Portugal: Contributions of Demand Components to Real GDP Growth 1/(Percentage change)
199119921993199419951996
Private consumption3.33.0−0.20.11.31.8
Public consumption0.50.3−0.20.30.30.2
Investment0.51.7−2.30.80.81.5
Gross fixed investment0.71.5−2.00.70.51.8
Change in stocks−0.20.2−0.20.20.3−0.2
Domestic demand4.34.9−2.61.22.53.5
Exports (goods and
nonfactor services)0.71.5−0.22.73.42.7
Aggregate demand5.16.3−2.83.95.96.2
Imports (goods and
nonfactor services)−2.9−4.71.7−3.4−3.6−2.9
GDP2.21.7−1.10.52.33.3
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.

Based on the structure of the previous year (at current prices).

Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.

Based on the structure of the previous year (at current prices).

Table 3.Portugal: Consumption and Investment Indicators(Year-on-year real percentage change)
ConsumptionInvestment
CurrentSales of
consumptionAutoGasolineMachinerycommercial vehicles
total 1/sales 2/salesimports 3/Light 4/Heavy 5/Cement 6/Steel 7/
19917.67.910.06.6−1.2−9.24.1−1.9
19923.022.113.16.321.1−5.02.215.9
19931.0−12.76.013.8−1.6−28.1−0.9−7.3
19945.4−3.73.03.422.4−21.80.619.5
19955.7−13.51.714.8−33.46.24.313.8
19968.12.89.027.14.46.611.9
1992
I2.128.518.75.224.96.311.029.0
II5.425.612.7−1.823.0−7.1−1.54.8
III3.812.211.010.817.6−6.0−0.214.7
IV1.021.611.46.819.2−11.80.417.0
1993
I2.1−7.08.06.2−28.31.1−3.1
II0.4−16.97.42.6−18.92.817.6
III0.5−9.04.9−4.9−31.5−2.2−19.1
IV1.2−16.94.3−9.8−3.8−5.6−21.6
1994
I4.0−8.25.4−8.15.0−28.7−8.8−7.3
II−0.32.84.6−0.710.4−25.7−3.3−2.9
III0.4−8.22.28.714.3−22.55.641.5
IV1.5−1.60.414.960.3−11.310.157.9
1995
I−2.5−11.11.619.9−24.51.110.638.0
114.9−12.62.19.9−29.23.09.730.4
III4.9−7.30.718.5−27.32.80.7−2.0
IV3.4−22.42.612.3−46.116.7−3.1−1.8
1996
I11.03.715.010.36.4−7.2−13.8
111.31.010.224.8−2.82.8−0.2
III5.43.16.230.08.412.030.4
IV16.53.55.743.26.419.532.7
1997
I−4.00.828.314.722.6
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.

Based on sales by main supermarkets. New series since 1994.

Passenger vehicles, excluding 4x4.

Until 1995, imports of capital goods, excluding transport equipment.

Light commercial vehicles, excluding 4x4.

Heavy commercial vehicles, excluding 4x4.

Sold to construction industry.

1991-92 includes steel imports.

Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.

Based on sales by main supermarkets. New series since 1994.

Passenger vehicles, excluding 4x4.

Until 1995, imports of capital goods, excluding transport equipment.

Light commercial vehicles, excluding 4x4.

Heavy commercial vehicles, excluding 4x4.

Sold to construction industry.

1991-92 includes steel imports.

Table 4.Portugal: Composition and Structure of Gross Fixed Investment 1/
199119921993199419951996
(Real growth in percent)
Gross fixed investment2.55.6−7.62.71.97.4
Construction4.52.5−0.61.15.06.5
Equipment goods1.36.0−14.7−5.19.111.1
Transport equipment−0.916.2−10.631.0−21.71.0
(In percent of total)
Composition by sector
Public sector29.029.330.628.731.3
General government14.215.317.215.816.616.9
Public enterprises 2/14.814.013.412.913.4
Private sector 3/71.070.769.471.370.083.1
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Structure
Construction45.846.249.148.350.350.7
Equipment goods42.640.837.834.936.036.7
Transport equipment11.613.013.116.813.712.6
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and Ministry of Finance.

Figures for public enterprises are based on estimates provided by the GAFEEP. Private sector investment (including nationalized banks) was calculated as a residual.

Nonfinancial public enterprises.

The figure for 1996 includes public enterprises investment.

Sources: Bank of Portugal; and Ministry of Finance.

Figures for public enterprises are based on estimates provided by the GAFEEP. Private sector investment (including nationalized banks) was calculated as a residual.

Nonfinancial public enterprises.

The figure for 1996 includes public enterprises investment.

Table 5.Portugal: Distribution of National Income
199119921993199419951996
(In billions of escudos)
1. Wage income5,002.15,754.96,041.66,223.16,542.26,924.7
2. Gross operating surplus4,817.65,447.45,930.86,262.06,854.57,307.1
3. GDP at factor cost (3=1+2)9,819.711,202.311,972.412,485.113,396.714,231.8
4. Indirect taxes net of subsidies1,429.21,746.71,703.81,948.52,110.02,242.2
5. GDP at market price (5=3+4)11,248.812,949.013,676.214,433.615,506.716,474.0
6. Net factor payment from abroad10.890.0−22.8−122.2−102.3−203.5
7. GNP at factor cost (7=3+6)9,830.511,292.311,949.612,362.913,294.414,028.3
8. GNP at market price (8=5+6)11,259.613,039.013,653.414,311.415,404.416,270.5
9. Net unrequited transfers659.0690.5699.8584.1638.5644.0
10. National disposable income (10=8+9)11,918.613,729.514,353.214,895.516,042.916,914.5
Households8,777.09,926.310,492.410,954.411,527.512,224.6
Firms1,435.31,485.11,763.61,786.72,110.91,764.1
General government1,706.32,318.12,097.32,154.42,404.62,925.8
(Percentage change)
1. Wage income15.815.05.03.05.15.8
2. Gross operating surplus19.913.18.95.69.56.6
3. GDP at factor cost (3=1+2)17.814.16.94.37.36.2
4. Indirect taxes net of subsidies14.622.2−2.514.48.36.3
5. GDP at market prices (5=3+4)17.415.15.65.57.46.2
Memorandum item:
Share of wage income in GDP
factor cost50.951.450.549.848.848.7
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.
Table 6.Portugal: Disposable Income
199119921993199419951996
(In billions of escudos)
Disposable household income8,777.09,926.310,492.410,954.411,527.512,224.6
Private consumption7,244.58,346.98,887.79,382.39,973.610,575.8
Households saving1,532.51,579.41,604.61,572.01,553.91,648.8
Saving rate (in percent)17.515.915.314.413.513.5
Saving rate (corrected for inflation)10.79.510.710.610.611.4
Direct taxes695.2923.6950.9989.11,054.51,137.9
Social security taxes1,327.71,567.11,723.31,853.12,023.32,185.5
Personal income10,133.811,775.512,551.613,222.214,095.515,029.6
Wage bill5,002.15,754.96,041.66,223.16,542.26,924.7
Other earned income3,585.74,170.34,348.04,609.04,895.85,217.2
Domestic currency transfer1,546.01,850.32,162.02,390.12,657.52,887.7
Transfers from abroad666.2641.5615.1574.4509.9518.3
Memorandum items:
Disposable household income
(except transfers from abroad)8,110.89,284.89,877.310,380.011,017.611,706.3
Household savings
(except transfers from abroad)866.3937.9989.5997.61,044.01,130.5
Savings rate (except transfers from abroad)10.710.110.09.69.59.7
(Percentage change)
Disposable income17.213.15.74.45.26.0
Real disposable income 1/4.52.6−1.0−0.91.02.9
Personal income19.016.26.65.36.66.6
Wage bill15.815.05.03.05.15.8
Other earnings income21.116.34.36.06.26.6
Domestic currency transfer25.319.716.810.611.28.7
Private external transfers4.4−3.7−4.1−6.6−11.21.6
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.

Deflated by the private consumption deflator.

Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.

Deflated by the private consumption deflator.

Table 7.Portugal: Savings and Investment
199119921993199419951996
(In billions of escudos)
Domestic saving2,718.43,140.53,045.32,946.53,291.23,324.8
Private (including public
enterprises)2,967.83,064.53,368.23,358.73,664.83,412.9
Households1,532.51,579.41,604.61,572.01,553.91,648.8
Firms1,435.31,485.11,763.61,786.72,110.91,764.1
Public (general government)−249.476.0−322.8−412.2−373.5−88.1
Foreign saving369.3403.4361.6678.4545.6821.5
Gross saving = gross investment3,087.73,543.93,406.93,624.93,836.84,146.3
Gross fixed capital formation2,987.73,426.53,319.13,512.43,670.34,017.2
Change in stocks100.0117.487.7112.5166.5129.1
Memorandum item:
Households saving866.3937.9989.5997.61,044.01,130.5
(excluding transfers from abroad)
(In percent of GDP)
Domestic saving24.224.322.320.421.220.2
Private (including public
enterprises)26.423.724.623.323.620.7
Households13.612.211.710.910.010.0
Firms12.811.512.912.413.610.7
Public (general government)−2.20.6−2.4−2.9−2.4−0.5
Foreign saving3.33.12.64.73.55.0
Gross saving = gross investment27.427.424.925.124.725.2
Gross fixed capital formation26.626.524.324.323.724.4
Change in stocks0.90.90.60.81.10.8
Memorandum item:
Households saving7.77.27.26.96.76.9
(excluding transfers from abroad)
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.
Table 8.Portugal: Origins of Gross Domestic Product(Real percentage change)
199119921993199419951996
Agriculture, forestry and fishing−1.4−1.0−6.6−3.20.97.2
Manufacturing0.9−2.0−4.4−0.92.64.6
Energy3.02.03.510.15.86.0
Construction4.52.5−0.51.04.86.5
Services4.64.4−0.50.52.02:4
GDP at market prices2.21.7−1.10.52.33.3
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and National Institute of Statistics.
Table 9.Portugal: Consumer Prices 1/(Annual average percent change)
1991 2/19921993199419951996
Overall index, excluding rents11.48.96.55.24.13.1
Food and beverages9.97.12.84.84.02.5
Clothing and footwear11.911.97.04.11.91.6
Housing expenditures12.19.67.03.53.32.7
Health14.215.512.69.16.24.7
Transports and communications14.49.711.15.94.84.6
Education, culture and recreation9.49.59.07.66.22.7
Tobacco and related expenditures19.219.111.56.16.34.8
Other10.98.613.26.75.55.2
Housing rents22.115.79.57.55.03.0
Overall index, including rents12.09.56.85.44.23.1
Administered prices13.88.66.83.93.33.3
Nonadministered prices10.69.06.55.44.23.1
Memorandum items:
End of period inflation9.68.46.44.03.43.3
Underlying inflation 3/12.311.88.95.75.03.9
Import prices−0.9−5.40.83.11.7−0.1
Inflation differential vis-à-vis EU 4/6.54.83.22.21.00.6
Source: National Institute of Statistics.

Annual averages.

New CPI series starting January 1991.

Excluding food and beverages, and energy.

EU excluding Portugal.

Source: National Institute of Statistics.

Annual averages.

New CPI series starting January 1991.

Excluding food and beverages, and energy.

EU excluding Portugal.

Table 10.Portugal: Population, Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
19911992 1/1993199419951996
(In thousands)
Total resident population9,8159,3459,3509,3509,3579,372
Civilian labor force4,8294,5284,5044,5644,5514,583
Total employment4,6314,3414,2554,2524,2254,251
Dependent employment3,2113,2233,1323,0703,0403,027
Fixed term contracts 2/16.112.110.910.611.112.5
Unemployment199187248312325332
First employment seekers414039526068
New employment seekers158147209260266264
Labor market
Application for employment
by unemployed296.6339.3365.1410.2451.8460.2
Unfilled vacancies8.47.05.05.17.37.8
Placements27.527.928.635.0746.846.3
(In percent)
Participation rate49.248.548.248.848.648.9
Participation rate 15-64 years70.368.467.867.567.267.5
Male80.778.777.276.475.475.5
Female60.658.959.059.259.559.9
Unemployment rate4.14.15.56.87.27.3
Male2.83.54.76.06.46.5
Female5.84.96.57.88.08.2
Duration of unemployment
Less than 3 months31.435.729.427.322.021.9
Between 3 and 12 months38.538.441.338.538.636.2
Over 12 months30.125.929.334.239.342.0
Memorandum item:
Unemployment rate in EU-128.49.811.111.611.211.3
Sources: National Institute of Statistics, Inquerito ao Emprego; Bank of Portugal; and IMF, World Economic Outlook.

As a result of methodological changes in the construction of the series, data for 1992 is not strictly comparable to previous years.

In percent of dependent employment.

Sources: National Institute of Statistics, Inquerito ao Emprego; Bank of Portugal; and IMF, World Economic Outlook.

As a result of methodological changes in the construction of the series, data for 1992 is not strictly comparable to previous years.

In percent of dependent employment.

Table 11.Portugal: Employment by Sector 1/
19911992 2/1993199419951996
(In thousands)
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing799.1490.1481.2486.9477.5518.1
Manufacturing and mining industries1,154.21,061.01,028.01,025.6988.7963.0
Electricity, water and gas45.931.122.854.334.629.1
Construction363.6346.2339.3327.9340.3343.1
Services2,268.12,412.22,372.12,367.62,384.02,397.5
Total4,630.84,340.74,253.74,251.24,225.24,250.5
Memorandum items:
Public sector828.2940.4902.4
General government 3/691.4810.8784.8793.5802.2771.0
Public enterprises136.8129.6115.5
Public sector (percent of total)17.921.721.2
Source: National Institute of Statistics, Inquerito ao Emprego.

Period average.

As a result of methodological changes in the construction of the series, data for 1992 is not strictly comparable to previous years.

Including education and health services, public and private.

Source: National Institute of Statistics, Inquerito ao Emprego.

Period average.

As a result of methodological changes in the construction of the series, data for 1992 is not strictly comparable to previous years.

Including education and health services, public and private.

Table 12.Portugal: Wage Developments
199119921993199419951996
(Annual nominal percentage change)
Compensations per employee 1/14.214.18.15.16.26.3
idem, excluding general government11.711.96.75.25.04.7
Contractual wages
Agriculture14.911.77.65.14.54.4
Industry14.410.77.85.25.14.5
Construction13.510.86.60.04.54.5
Services 2/14.511.97.85.14.64.5
Total, excluding
General government14.411.27.65.24.84.5
Public enterprises14.511.96.34.23.94.5
Private sector14.411.17.75.24.84.5
Memorandum item:
Inflation rate (CPI)11.48.96.55.24.13.1
Source: Bank of Portugal.

Including employers’ social security contributions.

Private sector and public enterprises.

Source: Bank of Portugal.

Including employers’ social security contributions.

Private sector and public enterprises.

Table 13.Portugal: Labor Costs in Manufacturing(1990 = 100)
IPIEmploymentProductivityWagesUnit

Labor

Costs

in Escudos
Percent

Change

in ULC
Unit Labor

Costs-

Exterior

in Escudos
Relative

Unit Labor

Costs
Percent

Change

in RULC
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)
198682.788.793.359.764.073.587.0
198787.092.793.967.972.313.082.687.50.5
198889.295.793.375.981.412.687.593.06.3
198992.398.793.486.092.113.192.499.67.1
1990100.0100.0100.0100.0100.08.6100.0100.00.4
1991100.7100.1100.6116.4115.815.8104.2111.111.1
199297.298.898.3129.9132.214.2105.2125.713.1
199392.396.196.0137.2142.90.1114.6124.7−0.7
199491.695.995.4144.3151.25.8115.9130.44.6
199594.092.5101.6152.1149.7−1.0113.5132.01.2
1996 1/98.390.0109.3159.0145.5−2.8116.2125.3−5.1
Source: Bank of Portugal based on the following data:

National Institute of Statistics, Industrial Production Index (manufacturing); adjusted for working days.

National Institute of Statistics.

(l)/(2).

Ministry of Employment and Social Security. Wages in manufacturing.

ULC = (4)/(3).

ULC of main partner countries weighted by manufacturing trade.

(5)/(6).

Provisional.

Source: Bank of Portugal based on the following data:

National Institute of Statistics, Industrial Production Index (manufacturing); adjusted for working days.

National Institute of Statistics.

(l)/(2).

Ministry of Employment and Social Security. Wages in manufacturing.

ULC = (4)/(3).

ULC of main partner countries weighted by manufacturing trade.

(5)/(6).

Provisional.

Table 14.Portugal: General Government Expenditures and Revenues(In billions of escudos; national accounts basis)
1991199219931994199519961997

Budget
Current receipts4,444.75,506.15,725.85,457.26,060.76,709.37,254.6
Taxes3,670.34,438.04,521.94,929.95,459.96,052.46,506.8
Direct taxes2,162.12,633.72,726.92,912.83,255.63,628.93,947.5
Income and property1,026.71,294.11,242.81,314.71,468.81,680.51,887.9
Social security1,135.41,339.61,484.11,598.11,786.81,948.42,059.6
Indirect taxes1,508.21,804.31,795.02,017.12,204.32,423.52,559.3
Other current receipts774.41,068.11,203.9527.3600.8656.9747.8
Current expenditures4,737.55,400.96,009.35,869.56,443.76,721.57,133.1
Goods and services1,951.02,208.32,410.42,566.72,794.73,036.93,254.1
Of which: Payroll1,502.91,820.81,965.82,015.62,198.02,370.22,582.6
Subsidies153.3156.9175.9102.6110.1121.9108.9
Interest payments888.6917.1837.5906.21,014.5810.2814.1
Transfers1,744.62,118.62,585.52,294.02,524.42,752.52,956.0
Current balance−292.8105.2−283.5−412.3−383.0−12.2121.5
Capital receipts304.9381.2382.3342.2370.9507.3561.5
Capital expenditures692.6862.7921.1811.7893.81,034.51,203.3
Investment382.4482.1541.7549.1607.5671.9775.6
Transfers310.2380.6379.4262.6286.3362.6427.7
Capital balance−387.7−481.5−538.8−469.5−522.9−527.2−641.8
Balance excl. net lending−680.5−376.3−822.3−881.8−905.9−539.4−520.3
Of which: Primary balance208.1540.815.224.4108.6270.8293.8
Net lending−12.924.56.825.843.110.962.7
Overall balance−667.6−400.8−829.1−907.6−949.0−550.3−583.0
Memorandum items:
Total expenditure (exc. net lending)5,430.16,263.66,930.46,681.27,337.57,756.08,336.4
Of which:
Total primary expenditures4,541.55,346.56,092.95,775.06,323.06,945.87,522.3
Current primary expenditures3,848.94,483.85,171.84,963.35,429.25,911.36,319.0
Total receipts4,749.65,887.36,108.15,799.46,431.67,216.67,816.1
Borrowing requirement of
non-financial public enterprises154.6164.468.751.6107.1126.0
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Table 15.Portugal: General Government Expenditures and Revenues(In percent of GDP)
1991199219931994199519961997

Budget
Current receipts39.542.541.937.839.140.741.1
Taxes32.634.333.134.235.236.736.8
Direct taxes19.220.319.920.221.022.022.3
Income and property9.110.09.19.19.510.210.7
Social security10.110.310.911.111.511.811.7
Indirect taxes13.413.913.114.014.214.714.5
Other current receipts6.98.28.83.73.94.04.2
Current expenditures42.141.743.940.741.640.840.4
Goods and services17.317.117.617.818.018.418.4
Of which: Payroll13.414.114.414.014.214.414.6
Subsidies1.41.21.30.70.70.70.6
Interest payments7.97.16.16.36.54.94.6
Transfers15.516.418.915.916.316.716.7
Current balance−2.60.8−2.1−2.9−2.5−0.10.7
Capital receipts2.72.92.82.42.43.13.2
Capital expenditures6.26.76.75.65.86.36.8
Investment3.43.74.03.83.94.14.4
Transfers2.82.92.81.81.82.22.4
Capital balance−3.4−3.7−3.9−3.3−3.4−3.2−3.6
Balance excl. net lending−6.0−2.9−6.0−6.1−5.8−3.2−2.9
Of which: Primary balance1.94.20.10.20.71.61.7
Net lending−0.10.20.00.20.30.10.4
Overall balance−5.9−3.1−6.1−6.3−6.1−3.3−3.3
Memorandum items:
Total expenditure (exc. net lending)48.348.450.746.347.347.147.2
Of which:
Total primary expenditures40.441.344.640.040.842.242.6
Current primary expenditures34.234.637.834.435.035.935.8
Total receipts42.245.544.740.241.543.844.2
Borrowing requirement of
nonfinancial public enterprises1.41.30.50.40.70.8
Sources: Ministry of Finance and National Institute of Statistics.
Sources: Ministry of Finance and National Institute of Statistics.
Table 16.Portugal: General Government Accounts, 1994(In billions of escudos, national accounts basis)
Central Government
StateAutonomous

Services

and Funds
Local

Administration
Social

Security
Total

Consolidated
Current revenue3,262.0982.2480.51,866.85,457.2
Taxes on income and property1,205.70.0109.00.01,314.7
Social security contributions0.00.00.01,598.11,598.1
Taxes on goods and services1,805.745.6151.314.52,017.1
Nontax revenue250.6936.6220.2254.2527.3
Of which: From other general
government sectors6.4782.4128.6216.90.0
Current expenditures3,695.8979.1474.91,854.15,869.5
Goods and services1,429.4673.5395.668.22,566.7
Of which: Salaries1,223.6492.0257.842.22,015.6
Subsidies83.211.57.9102.6
Interest payments864.05.934.81.5906.2
Other current transfers1,319.2288.236.61,784.42,294.0
Of which: From other general
government sectors1,069.519.51.743.70.0
Current balance−433.83.15.612.7−412.4
Capital revenue41.2408.8206.563.4342.2
Of which: From other general
government sectors3.0251.3119.73.70.0
Capital expenditure452.0371.3247.5118.7811.7
Fixed investment108.1204.1224.412.5549.1
Capital transfers343.9167.223.1106.2262.6
Of which: To other general
government sectors308.79.10.060.00.0
Capital balance−410.837.5−41.0−55.3−469.6
Overall balance−844.640.6−35.4−42.6−882.0
Primary balance19.446.5−0.6−41.124.2
Net lending11.012.22.7−0.125.8
Overall balance including net lending−855.628.4−38.1−42.5−907.8
In percent of GDP−5.90.2−0.3−0.3−6.3
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Table 17.Portugal: General Government Accounts, 1995(In billions of escudos, national accounts basis)
Central Government
StateAutonomous

Services

and Funds
Local

Administration
Social

Security
Total

Consolidated
Current revenue3,556.71,094.5544.72,050.96,060.7
Taxes on income and property1,337.90.0130.90.01,468.8
Social security contributions0.00.00.01,786.81,786.8
Taxes on goods and services1,916.749.3168.969.42,204.3
Nontax revenue302.11,045.2244.9194.7600.8
Of which: From other general
government sectors5.0883.8138.8158.50.0
Current expenditures3,935.01,074.9520.62,099.46,443.7
Goods and services1,555.6735.9428.974.32,794.7
Of which: Salaries1,347.3526.2278.845.72,198.0
Subsidies87.813.98.40.0110.1
Interest payments954.56.437.216.41,014.5
Other current transfers1,337.1318.746.12,008.72,524.4
Of which: From other general
government sectors1119.111.91.054.20.0
Current balance−378.319.624.1−48.5−383.1
Capital revenue46.9417.2221.090.5370.9
Of which: From other general
government sectors2.1269.0129.83.80.0
Capital expenditure494.7422.7270.4110.8893.8
Fixed investment129.7222.8242.112.9607.5
Capital transfers365.0199.928.397.9286.3
Of which: To other general
government sectors342.59.70.152.50.0
Capital balance−447.8−5.5−49.4−20.3−523.0
Overall balance−826.114.1−25.3−68.8−906.1
Primary balance128.420.511.9−52.4108.4
Net lending205.714.23.2−180.043.1
Overall balance including net lending−1031.8−0.1−28.5111.2−949.2
In percent of GDP−6.70.0−0.20.7−6.1
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Table 18.Portugal: General Government Accounts, 1996(In billions of escudos, national accounts basis)
Central Government
StateAutonomous

Services

and Funds
Local

Administration
Social

Security
Total

Consolidat
Current revenue3,945.01,208.8604.32,411.26,709.3
Taxes on income and property1,537.20.0143.30.01,680.5
Social security contributions0.00.00.01,948.41,948.4
Taxes on goods and services2,091.954.0183.094.62,423.5
Nontax revenue315.91,154.8278.0368.2656.9
Of which: From other general
government sectors5.4966.5158.5329.60.0
Current expenditures4,157.11,204.1561.82,258.36,721.5
Goods and services1,682.1810.8466.377.73,036.9
Of which: Salaries1452.4569.9300.147.82,370.2
Subsidies96.916.38.70.0121.9
Interest payments769.85.434.30.7810.2
Other current transfers1,608.3371.652.52,179.92,752.5
Of which: From other general
government sectors1375.321.60.962.00.0
Current balance−212.14.742.5152.9−12.0
Capital revenue52.1517.3248.1137.8507.3
Of which: From other general
government sectors3.9294.0146.43.70.0
Capital expenditure524.5498.5320.9138.61,034.5
Fixed investment124.0255.1281.411.4671.9
Capital transfers400.5243.439.5127.2362.6
Of which: To other general
government sectors375.77.50.764.10.0
Capital balance−472.418.8−72.8−0.8−527.2
Overall balance−684.523.5−30.3152.1−539.2
Primary balance85.328.94.0152.8271.0
Net lending4.33.43.20.010.9
Overall balance including net lending−688.820.1−33.5152.1−550.1
In percent of GDP−4.20.1−0.20.9−3.2
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Table 19.Portugal: General Government Accounts, 1997 (Budget)(In billions of escudos, national accounts basis)
Central Government
StateAutonomous

Services

and Funds
Local

Administration
Social

Security
Total

Consolidated
Current revenue4,328.61,279.5654.62,534.57,254.6
Taxes on income and property1,731.30.0156.60.01,887.9
Social security contributions0.00.00.02,059.62,059.6
Taxes on goods and services2,215.854.2201.587.82,559.3
Nontax revenue381.51,225.3296.5387.1747.8
Of which: From other general
government sectors7.11,007.5172.4355.60.0
Current expenditures4,383.21,251.9592.62,448.07,133.1
Goods and services1,798.8874.5492.188.73,254.1
Of which: Salaries1582.3623.9321.4552,582.6
Subsidies82.118.18.70.0108.9
Interest payments767.95.337.93.0814.1
Other current transfers1,734.4354.053.92,356.32,956.0
Of which: From other general
government sectors1,464.815.90.661.30.0
Current balance−54.627.662.086.5121.5
Capital revenue69.8563.5254.3162.5561.5
Of which: From other general
government sectors7.4318.9157.54.80.0
Capital expenditure591.2588.5322.7189.41,203.3
Fixed investment167.1310.2282.316.0775.6
Capital transfers424.1278.340.4173.4427.7
Of which: To other general
government sectors398.911.21.676.80.0
Capital balance−521.4−25.0−68.4−26.9−641.7
Overall balance−576.02.6−6.459.6−520.2
Primary balance191.97.931.562.6293.9
Net lending19.829.53.59.962.7
Overall balance including net lending−595.8−26.9−9.949.7−582.9
In percent of GDP−3.4−0.2−0.10.3−3.3
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Table 20.Portugal: General Government Financing
19921993199419951996
(In billions of Escudos)
General government deficit376.3822.3881.8905.9539.4
Privatization receipts used for debt reduction−199.9−51.3−30.0−122.8−292.0
Adjustment for complementary period0.4−35.8−81.1−152.5143.2
Debt assumptions98.095.4221.6140.0186.8
Other adjustments138.1104.1−35.21.277.4
Public sector borrowing requirement412.9934.7957.1771.8654.8
Domestic credit802.6416.0437.6402.9166.4
Bank credit, net397.8168.7490.1−314.4−199.4
Bank of Portugal306.610.96.0−204.6149.6
Deposit money banks91.2157.8484.1−109.8−349.0
TB and CLIP held by the public−84.5−103.3−1.6110.7−10.5
Non-bank credit489.3350.6−50.9606.6376.3
Of which: saving certificates 1/251.8199.095.0151.4127.4
Foreign credit, net−2.5316.4402.6513.7189.8
Foreign holdings of securitized debt−413.9250.762.7−150.9259.2
Net foreign assets of the Treasury 2/1.7−5.736.8−6.9−16.7
Errors and omissions25.0−42.717.413.056.1
(In percent of GDP)
General government deficit2.96.06.15.83.3
Privatization receipts used for debt reduction−1.5−0.4−0.2−0.8−1.8
Adjustment for complementary period0.0−0.3−0.6−1.00.9
Debt assumptions0.80.71.50.91.1
Other adjustments1.10.8−0.20.00.5
Public sector borrowing requirement3.26.86.65.04.0
Domestic credit6.23.03.02.61.0
Bank credit, net3.11.23.4−2.0−1.2
Bank of Portugal2.40.10.0−1.30.9
Deposit money banks0.71.23.4−0.7−2.1
TB and CLIP held by the public−0.7−0.80.00.7−0.1
Non-bank credit3.82.6−0.43.92.3
Of which: saving certificates 1/1.91.50.71.00.8
Foreign credit, net0.02.32.83.31.2
Foreign holdings of securitized debt−3.21.80.4−1.01.6
Net foreign assets of the Treasury 2/0.00.00.30.0−0.1
Errors and omissions0.2−0.30.10.10.3
Sources: Bank of Portugal, Annual Report, 1996; and staff estimates.

Credit net of amortization and interest paid.

Increase (−), decrease (+).

Sources: Bank of Portugal, Annual Report, 1996; and staff estimates.

Credit net of amortization and interest paid.

Increase (−), decrease (+).

Table 21.Portugal: State Tax Revenue 1/
1991199219931994199519961997

Budget
(In billions of escudos)
Direct taxes941.01,174.81,118.41,190.21,323.71,524.21,710.3
General income tax898.11,160.01,105.41,175.31,309.91,510.81,697.1
Personal607.0811.6826.3864.9919.81,022.71,106.6
Corporate291.1348.4279.1310.4390.1488.1590.5
Other42.914.813.014.913.813.413.2
Indirect taxes1,354.91,670.71,667.81,970.22,073.32,137.92,316.7
Value-added tax 2/636.6832.0797.31,038.91,124.91,136.61,264.2
Tax on petroleum products309.4362.5369.6399.1427.9448.3480.6
Stamp tax186.5213.9224.7214.9187.2184.4173.3
Tobacco tax86.5108.7132.3141.5151.0161.0175.6
Motor vehicle tax67.0100.399.5121.1132.6157.9168.9
Alcohol and beer tax18.624.224.629.230.731.231.7
Other taxes50.329.119.825.519.018.522.4
Total2,295.92,845.52,786.23,160.43,397.03,662.14,027.0
(In percent of GDP)
Direct taxes8.49.18.28.28.59.39.7
General income tax8.09.08.18.18.49.29.6
Personal5.46.36.06.05.96.26.3
Corporate2.62.72.02.22.53.03.3
Other0.40.10.10.10.10.10.1
Indirect taxes12.012.912.213.713.413.013.1
Value-added tax 2/5.76.45.87.27.36.97.2
Tax on petroleum products2.82.82.72.82.82.72.7
Stamp tax1.71.71.61.51.21.11.0
Tobacco tax0.80.81.01.01.01.01.0
Motor vehicle tax0.60.80.70.80.91.01.0
Alcohol and beer tax0.20.20.20.20.20.20.2
Other taxes0.40.20.10.20.10.10.1
Total20.422.020.421.921.922.222.8
Source: Ministry of Finance and INE.

State tax revenues on a public account basis.

It excludes Esc 45 billion of VAT revenues that accrue to social security in 1995 and ESC 77.7 billion in 1996 and Esc 72.4 billion in 1997

Source: Ministry of Finance and INE.

State tax revenues on a public account basis.

It excludes Esc 45 billion of VAT revenues that accrue to social security in 1995 and ESC 77.7 billion in 1996 and Esc 72.4 billion in 1997

Table 22.Portugal: Social Security Accounts 1/(In percent of GDP)
1991199219931994199519961997

Budget
Current revenues8.58.49.49.310.310.19.9
Contributions7.67.47.47.47.97.47.3
Budget transfers 2/0.60.61.51.51.12.02.1
Other revenues0.30.40.50.41.30.80.6
Current expenditures8.28.38.99.29.49.49.4
Pensions5.65.66.06.16.26.36.2
Unemployment benefits0.40.50.80.90.90.80.8
Sickness benefits0.60.60.50.50.60.60.5
Minimum guaranteed income0.00.00.00.00.00.00.1
Other1.61.61.61.61.71.61.7
Current transfers0.40.30.20.30.40.40.4
Capital revenues0.51.01.31.40.60.90.9
Capital expenditures0.60.91.50.90.71.11.1
Overall balance−0.2−0.10.00.30.30.10.0
Current balance−0.1−0.20.3−0.20.50.30.2
Capital balance−0.20.1−0.20.6−0.2−0.2−0.2
Sources: Ministry of Employment and Social Security, Ministry of Finance, and National Institute of Statistics.

Private sector general system, cash basis.

Including all state budget transfers.

Sources: Ministry of Employment and Social Security, Ministry of Finance, and National Institute of Statistics.

Private sector general system, cash basis.

Including all state budget transfers.

Table 23.Portugal: Public Transfers Between Portugal and the EU 1/(In billions of escudos)
199119921993199419951996
A. From the EU to Portugal300.8557.4619.5507.9715.1688.0
(In percent of GDP)2.74.34.53.54.64.2
Structural funds215.2455.7500.7326.9464.7495.2
(In percent of GDP)1.93.53.72.33.03.0
(In percent of total
investment)7.012.914.79.012.111.9
ERDF147.3275.5286.0220.9299.2304.2
ESF26.6115.9152.853.7108.7127.9
EAGGF-Guidance 2/41.364.361.952.356.863.1
PEDIP20.321.210.85.60.00.0
Cohesion Fund0.00.015.733.782.537.6
EAGGF-Guarantee 3/56.674.486.4139.7138.5126.4
Other 4/9.16.15.92.029.416.9
B. From Portugal to the EU130.3146.2162.8247.3196.1182.2
(In percent of GDP)1.21.11.21.71.31.1
Customs and agricultural duties37.736.635.339.940.226.6
Other own resources88.8108.6127.5206.9155.6155.7
Other3.81.00.00.50.30.0
C. Net transfers (A-B)170.5411.2456.7260.6519.0505.8
(In percent of GPD)1.53.23.31.83.43.1
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and INE.

On a cash basis.

Mostly under PEDAP, Specific Program for Portuguese Agriculture.

Mostly price subsidies.

Includes reimbursements and adjustments.

Acronyms:EAGGF: European Guidance and Guarantee FundERF: European Regional FundESF: European Social FundPEDIP: Specific Program for the Development of Portuguese Industry
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and INE.

On a cash basis.

Mostly under PEDAP, Specific Program for Portuguese Agriculture.

Mostly price subsidies.

Includes reimbursements and adjustments.

Acronyms:EAGGF: European Guidance and Guarantee FundERF: European Regional FundESF: European Social FundPEDIP: Specific Program for the Development of Portuguese Industry
Table 24.Portugal: Direct Public Debt
199119921993199419951996
(In billions of Escudos)
Direct public debt 1/6,695.67,231.88,440.89,476.710,523.211,157.4
Domestic debt6,160.16,688.37,448.38,105.08,685.59,183.3
External debt535.5543.5992.51,371.71,837.71,974.1
Total government debt 2/7,741.57,548.88,497.1933110,333.810,870.3
(In percent of GDP)
Direct public debt 1/59.555.861.765.767.967.7
Domestic debt54.851.754.556.256.055.7
External debt4.84.27.39.511.912.0
Total government debt 2/68.858.362.164.666.666.0
(In percent of direct public debt)
Direct public debt 1/100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Domestic debt92.092.588.285.582.582.3
External debt8.07.511.814.517.517.7
Source: Ministry of Finance and INE

Gross securitized debt of the State.

Government debt in accordance with Maastricht Treaty criteria.

Source: Ministry of Finance and INE

Gross securitized debt of the State.

Government debt in accordance with Maastricht Treaty criteria.

Table 25.Portugal: Interest Rates on Direct Public Debt
199119921993199519961997

Projected
(In billions of escudos; national accounts basis)
Interest payments816.3999.8888.4792.0730.8682.4
Domestic debt754.9963.5848.6694.2619.2542.1
External debt61.436.339.897.8111.6140.3
(In percent of GDP)
Interest payments7.37.76.55.14.43.9
Domestic debt6.77.46.24.53.83.1
External debt0.50.30.30.60.70.8
(In percent)
Implicit nominal interest rate
Domestic debt15.217.314.610.59.07.7
External debt7.16.85.26.15.96.8
Implicit real interest rate 1/
Domestic debt0.33.67.35.26.04.7
External debt−6.7−5.7−1.51.03.03.8
Source: Ministry of Finance and INE.

Implicit nominal interest rate deflated by the GDP deflator.

Source: Ministry of Finance and INE.

Implicit nominal interest rate deflated by the GDP deflator.

Table 26.Portugal: Privatization Revenues(In billions of escudos)
198919901991199219931994199519961997

Budget
Total privatization revenues78.969.6173.0313.580.4188.1363.5464.4500.0
In percent of GDP1.00.71.52.40.61.32.12.82.8
Fondo de Regularicacao da
Divida Publica, FRDP
Receipts from privatization57.130.7108.8221.066.293.8144.1381.1410.0
Privatization receipts used for
debt reduction 1/44.871.773.1199.951.330.0122.8292.0328.8
In percent of GDP0.50.70.61.50.40.20.81.81.9
Privatization receipts used for
capital injections 2/11.725.514.426.931.943.745.368.688.0
Balance for next period0.6−66.520.7−5.8−17.020.1−24.020.5−6.8
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and INE.

These amounts are shown as a financing item of the general government.

These amounts do not appear in the enlarged public sector accounts because the transactions cancel out: an expenditure of the FRDP (an off-budget autonomous fund) and a capital increase in the affected public enterprises.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and INE.

These amounts are shown as a financing item of the general government.

These amounts do not appear in the enlarged public sector accounts because the transactions cancel out: an expenditure of the FRDP (an off-budget autonomous fund) and a capital increase in the affected public enterprises.

Table 27.Portugal: Major Privatizations, 1989–97
EnterpriseTrancheDateMethodPercentageTotal RevenueSector
SoldEsc, billionsUS$, millions
Unicer1st4/26/89Public offer49.009.460.44Brewery
Banco Totta & Açores1st7/10/89Public offer49,0028.6182.72Banking
Aliança Seguradora1st10/2/89Public offer49.007.144.74Insurance
Tranquilidade1st12/4/89Public offer49.0025.8166.04Insurance
Unicer2nd6/28/90Public offer51.0013.390.74Brewery
Banco Totta & Açores2nd7/31/90Public offer31.0022.4159.03Banking
Tranquilidade2nd10/9/90Public offer51.0018.9140.49Insurance
Centralcer11/12/90Public offer100.0034.6265.40Brewery
Banco Português do Atiântico1st12/11/90Public offer33.0049.8381.52Banking
Sociedade Financeira Portuguesa5/6/91Public offer100.0016.1107.34Finance
Aliança Seguradora2nd5/29/91Public offer51.006.845.94Insurance
Bonança1st6/25/91Public offer60.0018.8120.43Insurance
Banco Espírito Santo & C.L.1st7/9/91Public offer40.0060.9384.78Banking
Banco Fonsecas & Burnay1st8/27/91Public tender80.0036.1240.85Banking
Banco Espírito Santo & C.L.2nd2/25/92Public offer60.0089.0627.54Banking
Mundial Confiança4/14/92Public offer100.0033.4235.77Insurance
Banco Português do Atlâintico2nd5/25/92Public offer17.6450.6377.55Banking
Petrogal1st6/4/92Public tender25.0040.8305.69Oil
Banco Fonsecas & Bumay2nd7/20/92Public offer20.009.072.22Banking
Império11/17/92Public offer100.0025.5179.76Insurance
Banif11/23/92Public offer16.015.337.01Banking
Crédito Predial Português12/2/92Public offer100.0040.8288.41Banking
Bonança2nd12/9/92Public offer15.004.330.75Insurance
União de Bancos Portugueses1st2/3/93Public offer61.1124.4163.99Banking
Banco Português do Atlântico3rd7/7/93Public offer17.5032.4200.26Banking
Banco Português do Atlântico4th3/25/94Direct sale7.5015.489.50Banking
Cimentos de Maceira e Pataias1st5/31/94Public tender80.0031.8186.56Cement
SECIL1st5/31/94Public tender51.0031.2182.84Cement
CIMPOR1st7/4/94Public offer20.0039.6240.98Cement
Banco Pinto & Sotto Mayor1st11/16/94Public tender80.0037.3235.05Banking
Bonança3rd12/12/94Public offer25.006.640.88Insurance
Banco de Fomento e Exterior1st12/27/94Public offer19.5019.4119.69Banking
Banco Português do Atlântico5th3/24/95Direct sale24.4075.1507.66Banking
Banco Pinto & Sotto Mayor2nd3/28/95Public offer20.006.845.93Banking
Cimentos de Maceira e Pataias2nd5/29/95Public offer20.007.853.22Cement
SECIL2nd5/29/95Public offer7.904.732.47Cement
Portugal Telecom1st6/1/95Public offer14.4974.9495.71Telecom.
Portugal Telecom1st6/1/95Direct sale12.7767.9449.85Telecom.
Portucel Industrial1st6/27/95Public offer12.1010.471.02Pulp & Paper
Portucel Industrial1st6/27/95Direct sale32.2029.1199.49Pulp & Paper
União de Bancos Portugueses2nd7/11/95Direct sale20.007.550.90Banking
Petrogal2nd7/31/95Public tender20.0040.0277.11Oil
Siderurgia Nacional - Pianos8/31/95Public tender90.005.435.38Steel
Siderurgia Nacional - Longos9/28/95Public tender80.003.725.19Steel
Companhia Nacional Petroquímica1st4/24/96Direct sale99.0012.781.33Chemical
Portugal Telecom2nd6/11/96Public offer6.6642.7269.62Telecom.
Portugal Telecom2nd6/11/96Priv. placement15.10103.7655.32Telecom.
Banco de Fomento e Exterior2nd8/28/96Public tender65.00136.0895.91Banking
CIMPOR2nd10/15/96Public offer20.4750.2323.17Cement
CIMPOR2nd10/15/96Priv. placement24.5365.3420.16Cement
Companhia Nacional Petroquímica2nd10/18/96Public offer1.000.10.82Chemical
Banco Totta & Açores3rd11/19/96Public offer3.064.529.53Banking
Banco Totta & Açores3rd11/19/96Priv. placement10.1516.0105.41Banking
Tabaqueira1st12/19/96Public tender65.0033.2211.19Tobacco
EDP1st6/18/97Public offer16.23211.11,210.85Electrical utility
EDP1st6/18/97Priv. placement13.36180.41,034.76Electrical utility
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Table 28.Portugal: Timetable for Privatizations, 1997–98
EnterprisePercent to

Privatize
Method
1997
BFE - Bank3.5Public offer
Brisa - Highway Co.35Public offer
Quimigal - Chemical Co.90Public tender
SETENAVE - Shipbuilding Co.Direct sale
1998
EDP - Electricity Co.20Public offer
CIMPOR - Cement Co.15Public offer
ANA - Airport Management Co.25Public offer
Petrogal - Oil Co.20Public offer
Brisa - Highway Co.20Public offer
Portucel - Pulp and paper Co.50Public offer
TAP - National airlineDirect sale
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Table 29.Portugal: Monetary Survey 1/(In billions of escudos; end-of-period)
199119921993199419951996
I. Net foreign assets3,173.63,529.24,454.33,866.02,837.22,078.5
Bank of Portugal3,445.83,563.03,700.73,273.83,132.43,240.5
Other monetary institutions−272.2−33.9753.6592.2−295.3−1,161.9
II. Total domestic credit9,262.110,768.411,710.413,099.414,662.916,330.9
Net credit to general government2,914.03,123.53,195.83,672.03,472.33,248.3
Credit to the private sector 2/6,348.17,644.98,514.69,427.511,190.613,082.6
Credit to nonfinancial firms and individuals5,848.36,852.57,641.78,345.79,623.110,999.2
Nonfinancial public firms787.3703.8696.9718.3679.8688.6
Other nonfinancial firms and individuals5,060.96,148.76,944.87,627.48,943.310,310.7
Credit to nonmonetary financial institutions 3/499.9792.4872.91,081.81,567.52,083.4
III. Other items net−1,792.9−1,941.9−2,665.2−2,288.7−1,533.8−1,618.0
Capital and reserves−1,836.1−2,129.7−2,745.5−2,877.5−2,804.5−3,092.6
Nonmonetary assets−163.7−186.5−290.9−283.5−223.2−359.9
Sundry items net206.9374.4371.1872.31,493.81,834.6
Liquid assets held by the public (L) = I+II+III10,642.912,355.713,499.414,676.815,966.216,791.5
Liquid assets held by nonfinancial residents (L-)8,184.39,279.59,852.510,783.711,664.412,712.5
Broad money (M2-)7,801.69,106.59,758.910,654.511,522.112,589.7
Narrow money (M1 -)2,704.73,163.73,392.63,641.43,972.24,398.0
Currency in circulation683.1708.2752.9795.8841.0880.9
Demand deposits2,021.62,455.52,639.72,845.63,131.23,517.0
Quasi-money5,096.95,942.86,366.37,013.17,549.98,191.7
Time-deposits4,506.85,699.16,232.26,897.97,400.57,997.3
Certificates of deposits270.6119.765.131.830.238.1
Cash certificates48.341.244.012.44.41.7
Repurchase agreements of securities271.282.825.071.0114.7154.6
Treasury-bills and CLIPs382.8172.993.5129.2142.4122.8
Liquid assets held by nonmonetary financial institutions 3/516.3824.31,078.01,217.11,632.61,363.2
Deposits and other liquid assets held by emigrants1,942.32,251.92,569.02,676.02,669.22,715.8
Source: Bank of Portugal.

Figures adjusted for the abnormal component of checks in process of collection in 1986–1991.

Includes nonfinancial public firms.

Includes credit to small savings banks and agricultural credit cooperatives.

Source: Bank of Portugal.

Figures adjusted for the abnormal component of checks in process of collection in 1986–1991.

Includes nonfinancial public firms.

Includes credit to small savings banks and agricultural credit cooperatives.

Table 30.Portugal: Credit and Monetary Aggregates 1/(Percentage change over previous year; end-of-period)
199119921993199419951996
Credit aggregates
Total domestic credit18.616.38.711.911.911.4
Net credit to the general government4.17.22.314.9−5.4−6.5
Credit to the private sector 2/26.720.411.410.718.716.9
Credit to nonfinancial firms
and individuals23.817.211.59.215.314.3
Nonfinancial public firms13.6−10.6−1.03.1−5.41.3
Other nonfinancial firms and individuals25.621.512.99.817.315.3
Credit to nonmonetary financial
institutions 3/73.458.510.223.944.932.9
Monetary aggregates
Liquid assets held by the public (L)19.816.19.38.78.85.2
Liquid assets held by nonfinancial
Residents (L-)18.513.46.29.58.29.0
Broad money (M2-)25.216.77.29.28.19.3
Narrow money (Ml-)15.017.07.29.28.19.3
Currency in circulation9.53.76.35.75.74.8
Demand deposits17.021.57.57.810.012.3
Quasi-money31.416.67.110.27.78.5
Time deposits28.426.59.410.77.38.1
Certificates of deposit24.1−55.8−45.6−51.2−4.925.9
Cash certificates17.3−14.86.7−71.7−64.3−61.8
Repurchase agreements of securities150.5−69.5−69.8183.861.534.8
Treasury bills and CLIPS−43.4−54.8−45.938.110.2−13.8
Liquid assets held by nonmonetary
financial institutions 3/128.459.730.812.934.1−16.5
Deposits and other liquid assets held by
immigrants10.915.914.14.2−0.31.7
Memorandum items:
Inflation (CPI)11.48.96.55.24.13.1
GDP deflator14.813.16.85.15.0
Source: Bank of Portugal.

Figures adjusted for the abnormal component of checks in process of collection.

Private sector is defined to include nonfinancial public firms.

Includes credit to small savings banks and agricultural credit cooperatives.

Source: Bank of Portugal.

Figures adjusted for the abnormal component of checks in process of collection.

Private sector is defined to include nonfinancial public firms.

Includes credit to small savings banks and agricultural credit cooperatives.

Table 31.Portugal: Sources and Uses of Base Money
199119921993199419951996
(Stocks in billions of escudos; end-of-period)
Sources
Net foreign assets, Bank of Portugal3,445.83,563.03,700.73,273.83,132.43,240.5
Net credit to general government−544.4−237.8−225.9−220.7−425.4−275.8
Credit to financial institutions160.18.8272.9576.1639.9269.9
Total A3,061.53,334.03,747.73,629.13,347.03,234.6
Other compulsory deposits191.30.40.00.00.00.0
Operations absorbing liquidity 1/125.4381.423.81,854.51,855.21,543.6
Capital and reserves, counterpart to foreign
exchange fluctuations, sundry items (net)229.9170.7692.7525.0273.5336.4
Total B546.6552.5716.52,379.52,128.71,880.0
Monetary base (= Total A - Total B)2,515.02,781.73,030.41,249.71,218.31,354.6
Uses
Currency (notes and coins)765.3797.8846.2881.1935.8983.7
Reserves and other noncompulsory deposits 2/1,749.71,983.92,184.2368.6282.5370.9
(In percent of monetary base)
Sources
Net foreign assets, Bank of Portugal137.0128.1122.1262.0257.1239.2
Net credit to general government−21.6−8.5−7.5−17.7−34.9−20.4
Credit to financial institutions6.40.39.046.152.519.9
Total A121.7119.9123.7290.4274.7238.8
Other compulsory deposits7.60.00.00.00.00.0
Operations absorbing liquidity 1/5.013.70.8148.4152.3114.0
Capital and reserves, counterpart to foreign
exchange fluctuations, sundry items (net)9.16.122.942.022.424.8
Total B21.719.923.6190.4174.7138.8
Monetary base (= Total A - Total B)100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Uses
Currency (notes and coins)30.428.727.970.576.872.6
Reserves and other non-compulsory deposits69.671.372.129.523.227.4
Sources: Bank of Portugal, Boletim Estatistico.

Securities repurchase agreements, central bank monetary certificates, central bank intervention bills and time-deposits.

Sources: Bank of Portugal, Boletim Estatistico.

Securities repurchase agreements, central bank monetary certificates, central bank intervention bills and time-deposits.

Table 32.Portugal: Official Interest Rates(In percent)
Regular

Operations 1/
Standing

Facility
Absorption

of

Liquidity
1996
AugustI7.500
II7.510
III7.500
IV7.250
SeptemberI7.250
II7.250
III7.256
IV7.250
OctoberI7.100
II7.100
III7.000
IV7.000
NovemberI7.100
II7.100
III6.9008.5006.400
IV6.900
DecemberI6.900
II6.900
III6.7008.3006.200
IV6.700
1997
JanuaryI6.707
II6.500
III6.500
IV6.500
FebruaryI6.500
II6.500
III6.500
IV6.500
MarchI6.520
II6.520
III6.520
IV6.500
AprilI6.300
II6.3007.8005.800
III6.300
IV6.300
MayI6.300
II6.0007.7005.700
III6.000
IV6.000
JuneI6.001
II6.002
III6.000
IV6.000
JulyI6.000
II5.7007.4005.400
III5.703
IV5.700
AugustI5.710
II5.730
III5.5007.2005.200
IV5.501
Source: Bank of Portugal.

Since July 14,1994 this rate corresponds to the weighted average repo rate.

Source: Bank of Portugal.

Since July 14,1994 this rate corresponds to the weighted average repo rate.

Table 33.Portugal: Selected Interest Rates
Overnight

rate
3-month interbank

deposit rate
3-month

treasury bill 1/
1-year

treasury bill 1/
10-year

bond yield
Year-on-year

CPI inflation
1994
June14.413.711.911.511.05.6
July11.812.712.512.011.35.1
August10.311.911.711.511.34.8
September9.410.711.010.811.84.7
October9.110.210.110.511.64.5
November8.810.09.910.411.54.0
December8.910.510.410.711.64.0
1995
January8.810.710.511.311.84.5
February8.89.99.910.911.74.6
March9.911.010.711.512.04.8
April9.210.810.711.512.24.6
May9.010.010.011.011.94.3
June9.09.99.810.811.93.8
July8.99.59.310.111.73.7
August8.79.39.29.911.34.0
September8.69.39.19.611.24.0
October8.79.39.19.511.24.0
November8.79.18.910.73.9
December8.68.98.88.910.03.4
1996
January8.28.48.38.49.42.5
February8.08.17.97.99.52.5
March7.98.07.87.89.52.4
April7.57.57.17.29.12.9
May7.27.26.96.99.03.5
June7.47.37.07.08.93.6
July7.47.37.27.18.73.8
August7.27.27.27.28.73.6
September7.17.27.07.08.33.4
October7.06.96.86.77.63.0
November6.96.96.76.57.23.0
December6.76.46.46.07.03.3
1997
January6.46.25.95.56.73.3
February6.36.26.15.66.72.9
March6.26.36.15.96.92.5
April6.16.05.85.76.81.8
May5.95.75.65.36.52.1
June6.05.95.65.36.41.8
July5.75.85.65.26.31.7
August5.65.55.45.26.41.9
Source: Bank of Portugal.

Primary market rates.

Source: Bank of Portugal.

Primary market rates.

Table 34.Portugal: Lending and Deposit Rates 1/(In percent)
1994199519961997
Mar.jun.sept.Dec.Mar.Jun.Sept.Dec.Mar.Jun.Sept.Dec.Mar.Jun.
Lending Rates
Over 90 days and up to 180 days15.015.415.214.713.813.513.012.712.310.811.211.09.79.1
Discount of commercial bills17.917.417.316.316.215.915.614.614.413.612.912.112.211.6
Over 180 days and up to 1 year14.815.115.414.914.513.411.813.312.210.610.710.010.19.6
Over 2 years and up to 5 years16.516.315.215.015.315.714.613.614.213.212.511.010.710.0
Over 5 years15.714.714.612.813.114.013.312.412.611.810.99.59.29.3
Deposit rates (time deposits)
Over 31 days and up to 90 days9.09.89.18.79.18.78.18.17.36.46.35.95.44.8
Over 90 days and up to 180 days9.29.39.59.38.98.98.38.17.26.46.25.55.34.9
Over 180 days and up to 1 year8.18.28.38.28.68.58.28.17.06.25.95.44.84.6
Over 1 year8.38.28.38.28.48.48.18.07.16.16.05.34.84.5
Source: Bank of Portugal.

Weighted averages; loans and advances to nonfinancial enterprises excluding public enterprises.

Provisional data.

Since May 12,1992 limits on these rates were lifted.

Source: Bank of Portugal.

Weighted averages; loans and advances to nonfinancial enterprises excluding public enterprises.

Provisional data.

Since May 12,1992 limits on these rates were lifted.

Table 35.Portugal: Exchange Rate Developments

(Percentage changes over previous years) 1/

1991199219931994199519961997
Rate of Portuguese escudo against: 2/
U.S. dollar, period average−1.37.0−16.0−3.19.9−2.0−18.5
U.S. dollar, end of period−0.4−8.6−17.011.16.5−4.5−16.7
ECU, period average1.52.5−7.1−4.41.20.5−3.1
ECU, end of period2.21.1−10.11.01.9−1.4−3.1
DM, period average1.41.0−11.0−4.9−1.52.40.6
DM, end of period1.8−2.9−11.0−0.50.71.90.4
Nominal effective exchange rate
Bank of Portugal index 3/0.73.2−6.0−4.12.0−0.5
IMF 4/0.53.6−5.7−3.41.70.2−1.4
Real effective exchange rate
Bank of Portugal index 3/6.78.1−3.1−1.93.40.3
IMF (ULC) 2/11.511.4−1.5−0.94.60.1−3.8
IMF (consumer prices) 4/6.98.6−2.8−1.22.80.7−1.3
Memorandum items: 2/
Escudos per U.S. dollar, end of period144.5135.0160.8166.0151.1154.2186.7
Escudos per U.S. dollar, period average134.2146.8176.8159.1149.4156.4182.2
Escudos per DM, end of period87.286.397.0102.0103.6101.2101.0
Escudos per DM, period average88.190.7101.9102.4101.799.8101.1
Sources: Bank of Portugal; IMF, International Financial Statistics; and Fund staff estimates.

A negative sign indicates a depreciation.

Data for 1997 is for August.

Trade weighted vis-à-vis 13 competitor countries (weights adjusted periodically).

Data for 1997 is for June.

Sources: Bank of Portugal; IMF, International Financial Statistics; and Fund staff estimates.

A negative sign indicates a depreciation.

Data for 1997 is for August.

Trade weighted vis-à-vis 13 competitor countries (weights adjusted periodically).

Data for 1997 is for June.

Table 36.Portugal: Merchandise Trade and Terms of Trade(Customs basis)
199119921993 1/199419951996
Exports, f.o.b. (in billions of escudos)2,354.12,475.22,474.42,975.63,501.83,677.5
Percentage change in unit value−0.3−2.21.74.84.2−3.8
Percentage change in volume1.17.5−1.714.813.09.2
Imports, c.i.f. (in billions of escudos)3,811.14,087.63,882.84,514.35,028.75,265.4
Percentage change in unit value−0.9−5.50.83.11.7−0.2
Percentage change in volume7.213.5−5.812.89.54.9
Trade balance, fob-cif,
(in billions of escudos)−1,457.0−1,612.4−1,408.4−1,538.7−1,526.9−1,587.9
In percent of GDP−13.0−12.5−10.4−10.6−9.8−9.6
Terms of trade (percentage change)0.63.50.91.62.5−3.5
Memorandum items:
Market growth3.42.5−6.011.98.14.0
Change in competitor countries’ prices
(in US$, export weighted)−2.43.5−9.52.012.2
Change in Portugal’s export prices
(in US$)−1.64.8−14.11.615.3−0.9
Sources: Direcção-Geral do Comércio; Bank of Portugal; IMF Research Department and International Financial Statistics.

National accounts estimates from 1993 onwards - Bank of Portugal.

A negative sign indicates a depreciation of the escudo.

Sources: Direcção-Geral do Comércio; Bank of Portugal; IMF Research Department and International Financial Statistics.

National accounts estimates from 1993 onwards - Bank of Portugal.

A negative sign indicates a depreciation of the escudo.

Table 37.Portugal: Geographical Distribution of Trade 1/
199119921993199419951996
(In percent of total imports)
Imports
Industrial countries84.186.685.684.583.784.4
Of which:
EU-1270.273.671.871.174.575.6
Of which:
France11.612.912.712.811.811.1
Germany14.614.715.013.914.815.5
Italy10.010.38.78.68.48.3
Netherlands6.06.94.94.34.54.4
Spain15.516.717.919.921.222.4
United Kingdom7.47.27.46.66.66.7
United States3.33.03.23.63.33.2
Japan2.83.13.22.92.22.2
Oil exporting countries5.53.75.05.75.04.5
Other10.49.79.49.811.311.1
(In percent of total exports)
Exports
Industrial countries88.689.190.290.490.189.2
Of which:
EU-1275.175.275.376.080.579.9
Of which:
France13.914.215.114.714.114.1
Germany18.919.219.618.921.521.2
Italy3.83.93.03.43.43.7
Netherlands5.55.45.25.45.34.9
Spain14.614.914.414.515.014.2
United Kingdom10.411.211.411.611.110.8
United States3.63.54.45.24.54.6
Japan0.80.80.80.80.80.8
Oil exporting countries0.60.60.90.80.60.6
Other10.810.38.98.88.310.2
Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics.

From 1993 onwards - source: Direcção-Geral do Comércio.

Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics.

From 1993 onwards - source: Direcção-Geral do Comércio.

Table 38.Portugal: Composition of Exports(Custom basis; in percent)
19921993 1/199419951996 2/

Jan.-Nov.
(Share of total exports)
Agricultural products7.77.37.37.47.2
Energy products2.93.44.13.32.3
Products of chemical industry5.35.66.36.25.9
Wood, cork, paper and paper products10.610.510.811.29.4
Hides, skins and textile products8.68.78.47.87.5
Clothing and footwear30.429.927.723.922.9
Metal and mineral products5.76.06.16.05.2
Machinery14.114.715.817.416.5
Transport equipment7.66.56.09.516.2
Other7.07.47.67.36.9
(Volume percent changes)
Agricultural products5.9−5.218.214.85.2
Energy products42.62.751.8−4.4−32.7
Products of chemical industry8.73.127.52.93.2
Wood, cork, paper and paper products0.43.27.20.27.8
Hides, skins and textile products5.0−3.611.73.93.5
Clothing and footwear4.5−5.16.4−2.43.5
Metal and mineral products3.33.210.95.20.0
Machinery12.02.727.537.03.6
Transport equipment20.5−10.26.081.9116.3
Other4.53.118.616.96.9
Total7.5−1.714.813.09.2
(Changes in prices)
Agricultural products−5.50.71.73.01.8
Energy products−17.712.0−4.2−1.811.1
Products of chemical industry−10.71.65.813.5−3.2
Wood, cork, paper and paper products−2.4−3.815.719.8−16.0
Hides, skins and textile products−2.44.63.94.8−0.3
Clothing and footwear0.73.84.73.2−0.2
Metal and mineral products−5.10.710.08.9−5.4
Machinery−0.82.00.8−1.6−2.0
Transport equipment2.8−5.24.32.1−6.5
Other0.81.54.2−2.5−5.1
Total−2.21.74.84.2−3.8
Sources: Direcção-Geral do Comércio; and Bank of Portugal.

Data from 1993 onwards computed on a new, not directly comparable basis relative to previous years.

1996 nominal (and real) percent changes are calculated by the Bank of Portugal, based on comparisons of provisional data for 1996.

Sources: Direcção-Geral do Comércio; and Bank of Portugal.

Data from 1993 onwards computed on a new, not directly comparable basis relative to previous years.

1996 nominal (and real) percent changes are calculated by the Bank of Portugal, based on comparisons of provisional data for 1996.

Table 39.Portugal: Composition of Imports(Custom basis; in percent)
19921993 1/199419951996 2/

Jan.-Nov.
(Share of total imports)
Agricultural products12.514.014.613.913.8
Energy products8.08.88.68.37.7
Products of chemical industry11.311.912.312.912.8
Hides, skins, wood, cork, and paper5.65.76.06.45.8
Textiles, clothing and footwear11.010.710.910.710.4
Metal and mineral products7.57.28.08.97.8
Machinery22.020.919.420.121.3
Transport equipment16.114.815.113.714.9
Other6.06.05.35.15.5
(Volume percent changes)
Agricultural products10.04.615.85.13.4
Energy products11.6−0.611.07.2−14.5
Products of chemical industry14.21.916.19.110.3
Hides, skins, wood, cork, and paper15.4−3.914.98.30.6
Textiles, clothing and footwear15.6−6.512.78.85.4
Metal and mineral products10.8−7.120.012.81.2
Machinery6.9−9.93.919.914.8
Transport equipment25.5−16.715.9−3.717.0
Other18.7−3.2−0.216.814.3
Total13.5−5.812.89.54.9
(Changes in prices)
Agricultural products−7.11.43.90.73.3
Energy products−15.05.10.7−0.317.3
Products of chemical industry−5.5−1.12.16.1−3.6
Hides, skins, wood, cork, and paper−4.20.85.87.8−3.1
Textiles, clothing and footwear−7.3−1.13.61.1−0.8
Metal and mineral products−8.2−2.67.39.1−7.9
Machinery−3.60.03.3−0.9−0.7
Transport equipment1.84.61.50.90.3
Other−6.7−1.41.5−6.10.0
Total−5.50.83.11.7−0.2
Sources: Direcção-Geral do Comércio; and Bank of Portugal.

Data from 1993 onwards computed on a new, not directly comparable basis relative to previous years.

1996 nominal (and real) percent changes are calculated by the Bank of Portugal, based on comparisons of provisional data for 1996.

Sources: Direcção-Geral do Comércio; and Bank of Portugal.

Data from 1993 onwards computed on a new, not directly comparable basis relative to previous years.

1996 nominal (and real) percent changes are calculated by the Bank of Portugal, based on comparisons of provisional data for 1996.

Table 40.Portugal: Indicators of Tourism
199119921993199419951996
Tourist arrivals
(In thousands)19,64120,74220,57921,72822,87522,989
(Annual percentage change)6.65.6−0.85.75.10.5 1/
Number of person-nights18,86717,87715,96518,17620,35719,881
Of which:
Germany3,2133,2983,0434,1445,0315,188
Spain1,8511,6251,4961,5561,4221,450
France965785696839881926
Netherlands1,6571,4951,1251,4351,3891,420
United Kingdom5,5605,6975,3415,4155,7385,567
United States482539463529476488
Japan7275102113117137
Tourist receipts
(In millions of U.S. dollars) 2/3,7103,7214,0684,1034,8424,697
(Annual percentage change)4.40.39.30.918.0−3.1
Sources: Bank of Portugal; Direcção-Geral do Turismo; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

July 1996.

New series (Bank of Portugal estimates) from 1993 onwards.

Sources: Bank of Portugal; Direcção-Geral do Turismo; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

July 1996.

New series (Bank of Portugal estimates) from 1993 onwards.

Table 41.Portugal: Balance of Payments - Transactions Basis(In billions of escudos)
199119921993199419951996

Prov.
I. Current account−103.7−39.812.7−366.3−107.5−412.2
Goods and services−898.2−1,072.4−1,038.7−1,140.7−1,082.1−1,262.0
Merchandise f.o.b. 1/−1,365.4−1,455.4−1,286.1−1,376.4−1,350.4−1,483.0
Services467.2383.0247.3235.7268.2221.1
Transportation−32.4−30.5−26.9−68.1−28.8−43.5
Travel and tourism 1/540.2−101.1348.9398.7405.2361.4
Insurance−10.5485.2−16.1−25.8−31.5−23.0
Other services−3.6−22.3−31.0−39.8−46.9−38.0
Government operations−26.4−23.9−27.6−29.3−29.9−35.9
Income−73.4−19.0−22.8−122.2−102.3−203.5
Labour income13.10.213.511.611.311.1
Capital income 2/−72.1−6.6−14.1−104.5−80.9−178.2
Other income−14.9−12.6−22.3−29.3−32.7−36.3
Unilateral transfers867.81,051.51,074.2896.71,077.01,053.2
Public201.7410.0459.1322.2567.1534.9
Private666.2641.5615.1574.4509.9518.3
II. Nonmonetary financial account325.4197.3434.0−284.4−160.4−380.3
Direct investment300.0206.5226.6161.20.9−23.9
Portuguese investment abroad−68.1−92.9−22.6−47.0−103.3−118.9
Foreign direct investment in Portugal368.1299.4249.2208.2104.295.0
Portfolio investment175.0−214.2313.893.7−99.2−1.9
Portuguese investment abroad2.1−50.3−406.1−551.7−406.7−794.0
Foreign investment in Portugal 2/172.9−169.9719.8645.5307.5792.1
External credits−106.7198.040.7−152.614.3−142.3
Granted to nonresidents−5.5−27.0−28.4−9.1−47.7−64.9
Received−101.2225.069.1−143.562.0−77.4
Other operations−42.97.0−147.2−386.8−76.3−212.2
Assets−173.2−390.1−73.5−209.2
Deposits−126.0−329.4−63.3−214.8
Other−47.2−60.6−10.25.7
Liabilities26.03.3−2.9−3.0
III. Change in short-term net foreign
assets of banks 3/282.3−231.8−883.2388.9703.21,233.4
IV. Operations still to be classified12.06.211.612.5
V. Leads and lags and statistical adjustments363.787.7−3.5−53.9−481.6−374.0
VI. Change in official reserves−867.6−13.4428.1309.534.7−79.4
Assets−855.4−14.3434.0259.350.1−71.1
Liabilities−12.10.9−5.850.1−15.4−8.4
Memorandum Item:
Nonofficial capital account (II+V)989.0285.0−449.3104.5542.8853.2
Source: Bank of Portugal.

Figures estimated by the Bank of Portugal.

Includes corrections resulting from accounting of portfolio investment income debits on a transactions basis.

A plus (minus) sign indicate a net decrease (net increase) in assets or a net increase (net decrease) in liabilities.

Source: Bank of Portugal.

Figures estimated by the Bank of Portugal.

Includes corrections resulting from accounting of portfolio investment income debits on a transactions basis.

A plus (minus) sign indicate a net decrease (net increase) in assets or a net increase (net decrease) in liabilities.

Table 42.Portugal: Current Account - Transactions Basis(In billions of escudos)
199119921993199419951996

Prov.
I. Current Account−103.8−39.812.7−366.2−107.5−412.3
Goods and Services−898.2−1,072.4−1,038.7−1,140.6−1,082.1−1,262.0
Merchandise f.o.b. 1/−1,365.4−1,455.4−1,286.1−1,376.4−1,350.3−1,483.0
Credits2,361.52,482.62,557.33,084.03,629.43,897.8
Debits−3,727.0−3,938.0−3,843.4−4,460.4−4,979.7−5,380.8
Services467.3383.0247.3235.8268.2221.0
Transportation−32.4−30.5−26.9−68.1−28.8−43.5
Credits196.5195.6189.7169.9229.2225.2
Debits−228.9−226.1−216.6−238.0−258.0−268.7
Travel and tourism 1/540.2485.2348.9398.7405.2361.4
Credits734.7705.7654.0680.8726.4724.2
Debits−194.5−220.6−305.0−282.1−321.2−362.8
Insurance−10.5−22.3−16.1−25.8−31.5−23.0
Credits45.941.441.815.316.626.5
Debits−56.4−63.8−58.0−41.1−48.1−49.5
Other services−3.7−23.9−31.0−39.7−46.8−38.0
Credits222.5217.0237.9233.3254.5264.3
Debits−226.2−240.9−268.9−273.0−301.3−302.3
Government operations−26.4−25.3−27.6−29.3−29.9−35.9
Credits6.06.38.18.911.311.6
Debits−32.4−31.7−35.7−38.2−41.2−47.5
Income−73.4−19.0−22.8−122.2−102.3−203.5
Labor income13.10.213.511.611.311.1
Credits29.015.721.922.624.024.0
Debits−15.9−15.5−8.3−11.0−12.7−12.9
Capital income 2/−72.1−6.6−14.1−104.5−80.9−178.3
Credits244.5355.7372.3347.2516.6525.1
Debits−316.6−362.2−386.4−451.7−597.5−703.4
Other income−14.4−12.6−22.3−29.3−32.7−36.3
Credits2.28.05.84.93.04.0
Debits−16.6−20.6−28.1−34.2−35.7−40.3
Unilateral Transfers867.81,051.51,074.2896.61,076.91,053.2
Public 3/201.7410.0459.1322.2567.0534.9
Credits331.1559.8649.4584.8782.1767.5
Debits−129.4−149.8−190.2−262.6−215.1−232.6
Private666.2641.5615.1574.4509.9518.3
Credits718.8697.5696.0643.8584.1584.7
Debits−52.6−56.0−80.9−69.4−74.2−66.4
Source: Bank of Portugal.

Figures estimated by the Bank of Portugal.

Includes corrections resulting from accounting of portfolio investment income debits on a transactions basis.

Includes capital transfers from the European Union.

Source: Bank of Portugal.

Figures estimated by the Bank of Portugal.

Includes corrections resulting from accounting of portfolio investment income debits on a transactions basis.

Includes capital transfers from the European Union.

Table 43.Portugal: Net Foreign Direct Investment - Breakdown by Main Sectors of Economic Activity and Country of Origin
199119921993199419951996

Prov.
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total2,7082,0151,4101,309698607
Agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing2316133111
Mining and quarrying8156142
Manufacturing industry439258277599268−78
Electricity, gas and water9913812276−89
Construction and public works20315140212717
Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants237−48100144211245
and hotels
Banks and other financial institutions,1,6821,521777489−133399
insurance and real estate
Other1089358404499
(In percent of total)
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing0.90.81.00.30.21.9
Mining and quarrying0.30.80.40.10.50.4
Manufacturing industry16.212.819.645.838.5−12.8
Electricity, gas and water0.30.59.80.939.5−14.6
Construction and public works7.57.52.91.63.82.8
Wholesale and retail trade,8.8−2.47.111.030.240.4
restaurants and hotels
Banks and other financial institutions,62.175.555.137.4−19.165.6
insurance and real estate
Other4.04.64.13.06.316.3
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Memorandum Items:
Country of Origin
Germany89111210347126−71
Spain328161389199−130528
France3143599914816267
United Kingdom544598255−17186180
United States23683364528−121
Switzerland1496212415986168
Japan41263416135
Other1,007615263413225−149
Source: Bank of Portugal.
Source: Bank of Portugal.
Table 44.Portugal: Official Reserves 1/(In millions of U.S. dollars; end-of-period)
1997
199119921993199419951996MarchAugust
I. Net official reserves
With gold at book value25,64424,24020,95720,35420,71920,63319,52818,673
With gold at market price26,12424,55821,78521,32521,71021,35120,10918,701
II. Assets
With gold at book value25,73824,33321,00520,71620,99720,84419,61818,869
With gold at market price26,21824,65121,83321,68721,98821,56220,19918,897
Gold 2/
At book value5,1255,1885,1895,1895,1894,9934,5694,021
At market price5,6055,5066,0176,1606,1805,7115,1504,049
Foreign currency17,59316,65913,18812,74513,08813,01012,41012,096
Official ECU2,6372,1092,2552,3562,1512,2392,0942,193
Other assets383378374426569602545559
III. Liabilities94924836227821190196
Memorandum Items:
Gold (in thousand troy ounces) 3/20,08020,08020,08020,08220,08220,08420,08420,086
of which: gold swaps with EMCF/EMI4,0164,0164,0164,0164,0164,0174,0174,017
SDRs98465871849898100
Reserve position in the Fund270314302337450461423405
Sources: Bank of Portugal; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

Assets and liabilities of monetary authorities (Bank of Portugal and Treasury).

From May 1988 onwards, the book value of gold is US$323 per troy ounce. Since December 1986, the market price is determined following the valorization principle of the European Monetary Co-operation Fund (EMCF)/European Monetary Institute (EMI).

Includes gold swaps.

July.

Sources: Bank of Portugal; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

Assets and liabilities of monetary authorities (Bank of Portugal and Treasury).

From May 1988 onwards, the book value of gold is US$323 per troy ounce. Since December 1986, the market price is determined following the valorization principle of the European Monetary Co-operation Fund (EMCF)/European Monetary Institute (EMI).

Includes gold swaps.

July.

Table 45.Portugal: External Debt(In millions of U.S. dollars; end-of-period)
199119921993199419951996
Medium- and long-term bank debt15,82916,28713,64813,94614,85414,067
General government4,2423,9952,0991,9732,2291,970
Nonfinancial public enterprises7,0116,9686,3036,5967,1236,969
Monetary institutions1,2961,420902846685534
Other3,2803,9044,3444,5314,8174,594
Short-term bank debt2,4312,8492,4962,2752,6522,067
Bank of Portugal and other
monetary institutions1710318204528
Nonfinancial public enterprises8371,0448433741,4621,745
Other1,5771,7021,6351,8811,145294
Stock of public debt bonds held by nonresidents4,8833,8915,6099,5239,82212,213
Of which:
Public debt bonds issued in domestic market (PTE)3,0792,4342,2343,1485631,841
Public debt bonds issued in external markets
(foreign currency)1,8041,4573,3756,3759,25910,372
Stock of other bonds held by nonresidents224843675315111,001
Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.
Source: Data provided by the Portuguese authorities.
Table 46.Portugal: Net External Position(In billions of escudos)
1993199419951996
Prov.
Net external position2,346.62,060.11,004.2868.0
Foreign assets8,560.49,589.110,314.211,571.6
Foreign liabilities6,213.97,528.99,310.110,703.5
Nonmonetary sector−2,444.9−2,278.9−2,600.8−2,389.7
Foreign assets1,307.41,767.61,822.02,488.0
Deposits 1/1,085.41,173.91,119.71,267.5
Securities held by residents 2/221.9593.7702.31,220.5
Foreign liabilities3,752.34,046.54,422.74,877.7
Included in the external debt2,695.32,446.32,513.42,439.7
Securities held by nonresidents 3/1,057.01,600.21,909.42,438.0
Monetary sector4,791.54,339.03,604.93,257.7
Monetary authorities3,705.63,238.13,095.83,226.5
Foreign assets 4/3,714.03,295.73,137.33,259.6
Foreign liabilities8.457.641.533.1
Banks1,085.91,101.0509.231.2
Short-term753.6592.2−295.3−1,193.5
Foreign assets held2,958.13,726.94,212.64,229.1
Foreign liabilities2,204.53,134.74,507.95,422.6
Medium and long term332.3508.8804.41,224.6
Foreign assets580.9798.91,142.41,594.8
Foreign liabilities248.7290.1338.0370.2
Memorandum Item:
Net external assets (DLX) of the monetary sector 5/4,459.23,830.32,800.52,033.1
Source: Bank of Portugal.

Deposits of residents with nonresidents banks (Source: BIS).

Long-term debt securities (bonds) and short-term securities. The stock of these securities held by residentes corresponds to an estimate, obtained by accumulating flows.

Long-term debt securities (bonds) and money market instruments held by nonresidents.

Assets of Bank of Portugal and Treasury with gold valued at book value.

Net external position of the monetary authorities and short-term net external position of banks.

Source: Bank of Portugal.

Deposits of residents with nonresidents banks (Source: BIS).

Long-term debt securities (bonds) and short-term securities. The stock of these securities held by residentes corresponds to an estimate, obtained by accumulating flows.

Long-term debt securities (bonds) and money market instruments held by nonresidents.

Assets of Bank of Portugal and Treasury with gold valued at book value.

Net external position of the monetary authorities and short-term net external position of banks.

List of Fund Studies

1996 SM/96/253, 10/4/96
Chapter I:Portugal’s Performance After Accession to the European Union: The Growth Payoff of Policy Reform
Chapter II:An Unemployment Vacancy Analysis of the Portuguese Labor Market
Chapter III:Financial Links Between Portugal and Spain
Chapter IV:An Indicator of Monetary and Financial Conditions for Portugal
1995 SM/95/269, 10/13/95
Appendix I:The Persistence of Portuguese Unemployment
Appendix II:The Social Security System
Appendix III:Interest Rates
Appendix IV:The Banking System
1994 SM/94/217, Supplement 1, 8/23/94
Appendix I:Privatization in Portugal
Appendix II:The Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness in Portugal
Appendix III:Portugal’s Stock Market
1993 SM/93/224, Supplement 1,10/22/93
Appendix I:The Convergence Program and Prospects Over the Medium-Term
Appendix II:From Fiscal Stabilization to Adjustment: Fiscal Policy in Portugal from 1980–92
Appendix III:Recent Financial Liberalization Measures

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