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Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund
Published Date:
September 1999
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V. The Magnitude of External Shocks In 199838

A. Introduction

183. As reported in Section II, Kazakhstan was hit by large shocks in 1998, which had a profound impact on domestic economic developments. This section focuses on two of these shocks, the fall in the terms of trade and the real effective appreciation of the tenge. It has two principal objectives. The first is to quantify these two shocks with a reasonable degree of precision. To this end, new time series for real effective exchange rate and terms of trade have been created. The second objective is to evaluate he likelihood of shocks of such magnitude being repeated. This is done by comparing Kazakhstan’s experience to changes in the terms of trade or in real effective exchange rates in a large set of countries.

B. Evolution of the Real Effective Exchange Rate

184. This subsection describes the methodology used to create real effective exchange rate series for Kazakhstan, shows the results of the computation of these series, and analyzes their main characteristics.

Methodology

General formula

185. The real effective exchange rate is defined as a weighted average of the domestic currency’s exchange rate vis-à-vis that of each of its trading partners divided by a relative price or cost index. Mathematically, it can be expressed as

where rt is the home country’s real effective exchange rate index at time t, βi, the weight put on trading partner i, et, the home country’s bilateral exchange rate vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar at time t, pt, the home country’s price or cost index at time t, eti, partner country i’s bilateral exchange rate vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar at time t, and pti, partner country i’s price or cost index at time t.

186. Given this formula, the creation of a real effective exchange rate series basically requires choosing a weighting scheme for trade partners and an appropriate price or cost measure. The price or cost measures most commonly used are consumer price indices, producer price indices, value-added deflators, and unit labor cost indices. A variety of weighting schemes have been derived in the literature, some of which show different degrees of sophistication. They range from the simple use of partner countries’ shares in home country’s exports and imports to schemes that attempt to take into account the nature of the goods traded or the effects of competition in third markets.

Choice of a price or cost index

187. For the present study, the choice of a price or cost index will be limited to the consumer price index. Given that the consumer price index is a weighted average of the price of tradables and non-tradables, and assuming that prices of tradables are equalized through trade, a real effective exchange rate series based on the CPI can be thought of as an index of the relative price of nontradables in the home and foreign countries. An increase in the index—i.e., a real effective exchange rate appreciation—signifies a relatively greater pull of resources toward the non-tradable good sectors in the home country than in its trading partners.

Choice of weighting schemes

188. Chosing a weighting scheme is particularly difficult in the case of Kazakhstan, as there are marked differences in the evolution of the tenge’s real bilateral exchange rate vis-à-vis currencies of different trading partners (Figure 23).

Figure 23.Kazakhstan: Real Exchange Rate of the Tenge vis-à-vis Different Currencies 1995-99

(Index, 1993=100)

Source: Kazakh authorities; and staff estimates

189. Since no weighting scheme is clearly superior to another, three different weigthing schemes are used in this study. Consequently, three different real effective exchange rate series will be computed.

190. The first weighting scheme simply uses trading partners’ share of imports and exports in Kazakhstan’ external trade. Thus, trading partner i’s weight, βi, is given by

where X and M are Kazakhstan’s total exports and imports, xi, Kazakhstan’s exports to country i, and mt, Kazakhstan’s imports from country i.

191. The second and third weighting schemes are adapted from the methodology used to compute real effective exchange rate series under the IMF’s Information Notice System.39

192. These two schemes are based on separate weights for trade in manufactured goods and food products and trade in primary comodities. Specifically,

where XM, IM, XPC, Ipc respectively are Kazakshtan’s exports and imports of manufactured goods and food products and its exports and imports of all primary commodities, but oil, and βiM and βiPC are weights for these two groups of products.

193. As for the first weighting scheme, weights for trade in manufactured goods and food products are based on trading partners’ share of imports and exports in Kazakhstan’s trade of these products. Thus,

where xiM are Kazakhstan’s exports of manufactured goods and food products to country i, and miM, its imports of those same commodities from country i.

194. Weights for trade in primary commodities are of a different nature. Primary commodities are grouped into four categories, corresponding to SITC categories 11-12 (beverages and tobacco), 21-29 (crude materials, except fuels), 41-43 (animal and vegetable oils), and 68 (non-ferrous metals). The weight of trade partner i for trade in one of these four categories is the product of the share of this category in Kazakhstan’s total trade in primary commodities by the share of country i in world trade in this category of commodities. The weight of trade partner i is simply the sum of the weights for each category of primary commodities. The assumption underlying this weighting scheme is that primary commodities are homogeneous goods that are sold on a unified world market. Thus, the weight to be given to a partner country for trade in primary commodities has to be linked to the importance of that country as a producer or consumer of that commodity. Oil is excluded as it is assumed that world demand and supply of oil is independent of currency fluctuations. Mathematically,

where XJ, MJ, respectively, are Kazakhstan’s exports and imports of primary commodities included in category j, and xij and mij, respectively, are country i’s total exports and imports of primary commodities included in category j.

195. The second and third weighting schemes differ with respect to the inclusion of shuttle trade in the computation of trade weights. For the second weighting scheme, only customs data are used. For the third weighting scheme, customs data are corrected to account for shuttle trade.

196. For all three weighting schemes, the same simple cut-off rule was used. Weights were computed on the basis of the methodology described above. Then, countries with the top twenty weights were selected and their weights were scaled by a uniform factor so that they would add up to 1.

Data sources and additional assumptions

197. The trade data used in the computation of the three set of weights are Kazakhstan’s customs data for 1998. National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK)’s global estimates of shuttle trade for 1998, and INS data for trade in primary commodities. Nominal exchange rate and consumer price data for the period up to February 1999 were also taken from the IMF’s INS database. This database uses the average monthly nominal exchange rate of national currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar. Nominal exchange rate and consumer price data for Kazakhstan for March and April 1999 were obtained from the NBK and the National Statistical Agency.

198. Additional assumptions had to be made for the regional distribution of shuttle trade and exchange and price data for March and April 1999. On the basis of partial information on air and land travel, it was assumed that 50 percent of shuttle trade is done with Russia, 30 percent with Turkey, 10 percent with China, and 5 percent each with Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. In addition, it was assumed that the real bilateral exchange rate of Kazakhstan’s trading partners vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar remained at the same level in March and April 1999 as in February 1999.

Results

Weights

199. The weights derived under the three weighting schemes are shown in Table 23.

Table 23.Kazakhstan: Weights for Real Effective Exchange Rate Series, 1998(In percent)
First weighting scheme: bilateral trade shareSecond weighting scheme: INS methodologyThird weighting scheme: INS methodology with inclusion of shuttle trade
Russia37.6Russia29.8Russia34.0
United8.1Germany9.6Turkey10.1
Kingdom
Germany7.6United States8.9Germany7.7
Italy6.9United6.9United States7.1
Kingdom
China5.1China5.3China6.3
Switzerland4.6Turkey4.9United5.4
Kingdom
Ukraine4.2Netherlands4.9Netherlands3.9
Netherlands4.1Japan3.8Japan3.0
United States4.0France3.5France2.7
Turkey3.5Switzerland3.3Switzerland2.6
Uzbekistan2.5Italy3.1Italy2.5
Finland1.9Korea2.5Uzbekistan2.4
Korea1.6Estonia2.1Korea2.0
Estonia1.5Canada2.1Kyrgyz1.8
Republic
Japan1.4Belgium1.8Estonia1.7
Kyrgyz1.3Uzbekistan1.7Canada1.7
Republic
France1.2Ukraine1.6Belgium1.5
Czech1.1Finland1.5Ukraine1.3
Republic
Poland1.0Belarus1.4Finland1.2
Belarus1.0Brazil1.3Belarus1.1
Source: Fund staff estimates.
Source: Fund staff estimates.

200. Under all schemes, Russia has the largest weight. However, its weight varies substantially from one scheme to the next with a minimum of 30 percent and a maximum of nearly 38 percent.

201. Not surprisingly, the second and third schemes based on the INS methodology generate bigger weights for the largest economies in the world than the first scheme, as these economies account for a large proportion of world trade in primary commodities. Again, not surprisingly, the third weighting scheme yields substantially greater weights for countries that are thought to be the largest sources of shuttle imports.

Real effective exchange rate series

202. The real exchange rate series computed according to the methodology described above are shown in Table 24 and Figures 24 and 25.

Figure 24.Kazakhstan: Real Effective Exchange Rate, 1995-99

(1995 = 100)

Source: Fund staff estimates.

Figure 25.Kazakhstan: Real Effective Exchange Rate, 1998-99

(January 1998 =100)

Source: Fund staff estimates.

Table 24.Kazakhstan: Real Effective Exchange Rates Series, 1995-99(Index, 1995 = 100)
First weighting scheme: Bilateral trade sharesSecond weighting scheme: INS methodologyThird weighting scheme: INS methodology with inclusion of shuttle trade
1995Jan.101.9100.3101.5
Feb.101.399.8100.8
Mar.101.899.6101.0
Apr.100.097.799.0
May98.196.897.6
Jun.94.894394.4
Jul.96.196.496.1
Aug.105.1106.1105.2
Sep.100.4102.0100.7
Oct.99.2101.199.9
Nov.99.4101.5100.5
Dec.101.9104.4103.3
1996Jan.103.2106.3105.0
Feb.103.5106.9105.5
Mar.104.5108.2106.8
Apr.106.5110.6109.0
May107.5111.9110.2
Jun.109.0113.5111.8
Jul.110.2114.7113.2
Aug.111.8116.3114.9
Sep.111.3115.8114.5
Oct.113.1117.7116.5
Nov.113.3117.7116.8
Dec.110.9115.4114.4
1997Jan.110.5115.3114.1
Feb.112.9118.3116.6
Mar.114.9120.5118.6
Apr.115.7121.5119.6
May114.7120.3118.4
Jun.115.2120.9118.9
Jul.116.1121.9119.6
Aug.117.1122.8120.3
Sep.116.6122.3120.0
Oct.117.3122.9120.7
Nov.118.1124.1121.8
Dec.120.6127.1124.4
1998Jan.122.5129.4126.4
Feb.123.6130.4127.5
Mar.124.6131.4128.5
Apr.124.6131.4128.6
May124.2130.9128.3
Jun.123.5130.3127.5
Jul.123.5129.9127.1
Aug.123.9129.7127.0
Sep.141.9142.8142.5
Oct.140.1139.4139.7
Nov.138.6138.2138.5
Dec.138.7137.4138.3
1999Jan.140.2139.1139.7
Feb.140.3139.6139.6
Mar.137.9137.2137.2
Apr.112.3111.6111.7
May107.3106.7106.8
Source: Fund staff estimates.
Source: Fund staff estimates.

203. Despite the significant differences in weighting schemes, it is striking that the broad shapes of the three real effective exchange rate series since 1995 are identical. Three periods can be distinguished. From mid- 1995 to mid-1998, the tenge steadily appreciated in real effective terms. In August-September 1998, following the sharp nominal depreciation of the Russian ruble, the tenge’s real effective exchange rate jumped further. In April 1999, as a result of the switch to a floating exchange rate regime and the ensuing nominal devaluation of the tenge, the tenge’s real effective exchange rate sharply fell to a level similar to that seen in early 1996.

204. Nevertheless, there are differences between these series. The most notable is the estimate of the real effective exchange rate appreciation that occurred in August-September 1998. Depending upon the series used, it varies from 10 to 15 percent. The highest number pertains, of course, to the series that places the largest weight on Russia, which is the one whose weights equal bilateral trade shares.

C. Evolution of the Terms of Trade

205. This subsection provides information on the methodology used to compute a terms of trade series for Kazakhstan and presents the results of that computation.

Definition

206. The terms of trade (TOT) of an economy are defined as the ratio of the average price of exports to the average price of imports.

Data and Methodology

207. To construct a TOT series for Kazakhstan, detailed customs data on Kazakhstan’s 1998 exports and imports in 1998 were used.40 These data included trade disaggregated into 91 and 97 categories of exports and imports respectively. By comparing the description of each of these categories to those in the SITC system, the customs data figures were consolidated into a smaller set of 14 categories. The choice of these categories was based on two main factors; the desire to limit the diversity of goods in each category and the availability of reliable world price indicators. The starting point was the set of two-digit SITC categories, which underpin computation of trade weights in the IMF’s Information Notice System (INS). This set then was reduced in some ways and expanded in others, especially as regards metals and other primary commodities.41 The distribution of Kazakhstan’s exports and imports according to this classification is shown in Table 25.

Table 25.Kazakhstan: Composition of Exports and Imports of Goods, 1998(In millions of US dollars)
ExportsImports
TOTAL5,338,9094,241,736
Food and live animals428,689364,871
Beverages4,19638,785
Inedible crude materials except fuels392,66095,298
Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes8,73856,543
Oil and products2,068,123617,453
Manufactured goods672,2832,601,121
Ferrous metals and products787,628406,670
Copper and products582,5639,982
Nickel and products117953
Aluminium and products62,08435,840
Lead and products41,6432,659
Zinc and products181,6351,383
Tin and products06,614
Other base metals, metallo-ceramics108,5513,565
Sources: Kazakh authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Kazakh authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

208. A world price index for each of the categories was established using the baseline commodity prices compiled by the IMF’s Research department in the WEO database. These price series are shown in Table 26. While, it would have been preferable to use the prices that actually underlied actual transactions, the dearth of reliable detailed data on such transactions precluded this option.

Table 26.Kazakhstan: World Prices Indices, 1993-99(Index, 1995=100)
1993199419951996199719981999
QIQIIQIIIQIVYearQIQIIQIIIQIVYearQI
Food index of cereals, oils, protein meals, meat, sugar, and bananas88.092.5100.0112.2105.8102.694.697.1100.093.689.182.184.587.379.0
Export unit value of manufactures of industrial countries88.090.7100.096.992.089.288.487.589.388.986.886.589.788.089.5
Metals index71.883.7100.088.191.892.693.385.390.779.577.574.772.175.967.9
Vegetable oils and protein meals index of soys, oils, and meals85.993.0100.0110.7114.4112.7105.3111.6111.0106.4100.094.395.599.082.7
Oil, average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and west Texas intermediate97.692.7100.0118.4122.6107.5108.4109.5112.082.377.275.668.976.068.5
Index of Ironore; Brazil, Dubai standard, 61.5 percent, Germany104.194.3100.0105.9106.4106.3106.3106.3106.3110.0110.0110.0110.0110.097.9
Index of copper, LME, grade A cathodes, cif Europe65.378.6100.078.282.585.477.365.177.658.059.056.052.756.448.0
Index of nickel; LME, melting grade, cif north Europe64.577.0100.091.392.088.681.574.884.265.960.350.748.056.256.3
Index of LME standard grade aluminum63.281.8100.083.588.487.890.787.588.681.175.573.271.175.266.2
Index of lead; LME, 99.97 percent pure, cif European64.787.2100.0123.0108.299.299.389.399.085.086.984.278.883.780.1
Index of zinc; LME, high grade, cif United Kingdom93.596.8100.099.4113.8126.2155.4114.7127.5103.0102.399.392.799.396.3
Index of tin; LME, standard grade, cif European83.488.1100.099.494.991.388.089.991.085.694.490.586.989.384.2
Source: Fund staff calculations:
Source: Fund staff calculations:

Results

Using the data from Tables 25 and 26, quarterly and annual export price, import price, and terms of trade series were computed for the period 1993-1999. In addition, similar series were computed excluding oil and related products. These series are presented in Table 27 and Figure 26.

Figure 26.Kazakhstan: Terms of Trade, 1993-99

(1995 = 100)

Source: Fund staff estimates.

Table 27.Kazakhstan: Terms of Trade, Export and Import Price Indices, 1993-99(Index, 1995=100)
1993199419951996199719981999
QIQIIQIIIQIVYearQIQIIQIIIQIVYearQI
Overall terms of98.598.4100.0102.1106.7105.8106.4103.4105.694.794.593.489.192.987.2
trade
Excluding oil94.697.1100.097.0101.1103.6103.698.6101.795.396.194.891.894.588.6
Export price index88.389.7100.0103.3104.699.798.895.799.785.582.980.878.581.975.0
Excluding oil84.088.3100.096.296.196.194.389.394.086.985.583.283.084.778.0
Import price index89.691.1100.0101.298.094.392.992.594.490.387.786.588.188.186.0
Excluding oil88.790.9100.099.295.192.791.190.592.491.289.087.890.489.688.1
Source: Fund staff calculations.
Source: Fund staff calculations.

209. Comparing annual averages, Kazakhstan experienced an adverse TOT shock of 12.1 percent between 1997 and 1998, as export and import prices weakened by an average of 17.9 and 6.7 percent respectively. Between the fourth quarters of 1997 and 1998, the adverse TOT shock is estimated at 13.8 percent. Excluding oil, these figures respectively fall to 7.1 and 6.8 percent.

D. Calibration of Kazakhstan’s 1998 REER and TOT Shocks

210. In this subsection, an attempt is made to evaluate Kazakhstan’s external shocks in comparison to those experienced by other countries.

211. Based on INS data for 159 countries, Figure 27 shows the number of countries whose currencies have experienced a change in real effective exchange rate during 1998 within certain percentages. It is apparent that few countries experienced an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate as high as that seen in Kazakhstan. Out of 159 countries, fourteen saw their currencies appreciate in real effective terms by more than 10 percent and eleven by more than 15 percent. Out of these fourteen countries, eight were neighbors of Russia and two were Asian countries who had experienced a very sharp currency depreciation a year earlier. Consequently, excluding the impact of the Russian and Asian crises, only four countries witnessed a real effective exchange rate appreciation of more than 10 percent. Assuming that events such as the Asian and Russian crises will remain rare, these 1998 data suggest that the shock felt by Kazakhstan in August-September 1998 was of an unusually large magnitude.

Figure 27.Kazakhstan: Frequency of Real Effective Rate Changes, 1998

212. To calibrate Kazakhstan’s terms-of-trade shock in 1998, indicators of TOT shocks in other countries were compiled. This information was obtained from the estimates made for individual countries by IMF staff, as background to the bi-annual WEO exercise.42 This data shows that 17 percent of the 172 countries in the sample had TOT shocks that were greater than 10 percent, while 13 percent of countries had shocks greater than 12.5 percent (Figure 28)43. Thus, while Kazakhstan’s TOT shocks was significant in 1998, it was far from exceptional.

Figure 28.Kazakhstan World Terms of Trade shocks, 1998

(Cumulative distribution)

Source: Fund staff estimates.

213. An alternative way to calibrate the TOT shock to Kazakhstan is to compare it with those experienced in other economies over the past years. Table 28 shows the percentage of countries that experienced positive or negative TOT shocks greater than certain thresholds during a given year. It indicates that, on average during the period 1971-98, nearly 30 percent of countries experienced a TOT shock greater than 10 percent in any given year and nearly 20 percent of countries a TOT shock larger than 15 percent. These data strongly suggests that the TOT shock that affected Kazakhstan in 1998 was indeed not of an extreme magnitude.

Table 28.Kazakhstan: Percentage of Countries with Terms of Trade Shocks larger than Threshold, 1971-88
Greater than:
5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
197147231272100
19723920952000
1973583621147642
19747862524033302828
1975563623168652
197658372520151197
197750342619141097
197855331797542
1979603520139510
19807251372515131110
1981643718137542
198244251354322
19834120833322
1984402316108755
198538191175422
19867557362620141310
19875136241310654
1988522919115222
198949271676533
1990542718118543
199145261486432
199239211295322
199341201064421
199439201453222
199531151066543
199631161074111
19972613852211
199833171176310
Source: Fund staff calculations.
Source: Fund staff calculations.

E. Conclusions

214. The series presented in this section showed that the real effective appreciation of the tenge in 1998 was of a very large magnitude, both in absolute terms and in comparison to the experience of the majority of other countries. However, it also showed that the nominal devaluation of the tenge that followed the switch to a floating exchange rate regime in early April 1999 had reversed not only the real appreciation incurred in the second half of 1998 but also that experienced since early 1996. Thus, on this limited basis, remaining concerns about Kazakhstan’s external competitiveness would appear unwarranted.

215. Contrary to the extent of the tenge’s real appreciation, the magnitude of the terms-of-trade shock felt by Kazakhstan in 1998 cannot appear exceptional. Given that Kazakhstan’s exports will most likely continue to be concentrated on oil, gas, and other primary commodities for years to come, terms of trade shocks of similar magnitude in the future should be expected. Thus, it is essential that the design of macroeconomic policies take into account the flexibility needed to deal with such external shocks.

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APPENDIX I. Kazakhstan: Summary of Changes in the Tax System during 1998.

1. There were several amendments made to the Tax Code in Kazakhstan since the last Article IV consultation. Altogether 10 laws were passed between April 15, 1998 and March 31, 1999, which resulted in changes in the Tax Code. This Annex gives a summary of the main changes.

Personal Income Tax

2. As a consequence of the pension reform, income from the pension accumulation funds is included in the tax base, but obligatory pension contributions to pension accumulation funds is made deductible. State pension (pay-as-you go system) continues to be exempt from the tax base.

3. The number of tax brackets has been reduced from 6 to 4, the highest bracket being now 65 times the annual assessment index (AI) and above. The marginal tax rate has been increased from 15 to 20 percent in the bracket from 30 to 65 times the AI, and was set at 30 percent in the consolidated highest bracket.

Social Tax

4. As a consequence of the pension reform, obligatory pension contribution of physical persons to pension accumulation funds withheld by employers is not subject to social tax.

5. The social support tax has been eliminated.

Corporate Income Tax

6. The amount of revaluation of fixed assets in excess of inflation is now included into the aggregate annual income.

7. As a result of the reform of the system of social benefits, social benefits paid by employers, up to 1.5 percent of total payroll cost, are made deductible.

8. Business organizations income from leasing new technological equipment for a term longer than three years (with subsequent transfer of the equipment) is not subject to CIT.

9. In order to discourage under-invoicing of exports, the difference between actual contractual price and imputed price (if the latter is higher) is regarded as income.

VAT

10. In order to discourage under-invoicing of exports, the difference between actual contractual price and purchase price or imputed price (if the latter is higher) is made subject to the standard 20 percent VAT.

11. The group of activities (turnovers) which are not subject to VAT has been extended to include educational and medical services.

12. A reduced rate of 10 percent has been introduced for cattle and poultry, meat, fish, flour, bread, pasta, milk and milk products, eggs, vegetable oil, margarine, cereals, grain, sugar, vegetables, baby food. The same rate applies to sausage, tinned meat, fish products, processed vegetables and some other items if sold by residents.

13. The amount of offset in excess of assessed tax is reckoned toward future VAT payment. The procedure for the treatment of excess offset in case of imports will be established jointly by the Ministry of State Revenue and the Ministry of Finance. To support exporting firms, in case of zero rated (exported) goods, the excess off-set has to be paid back within 60 days.

Excise

14. In case of electricity, the taxable base is defined as the entire output, which makes arrears to electricity suppliers subject to excise duty. In the event of a loss of or damage to excisable goods, excise duty is to be paid in full.

Land Tax

15. New (higher) tax rates have been introduced for land used for auxiliary farming, vegetable gardening, and for datchas (period cottages), which depend on the size of the plot.

16. New (increased) tax rates have been introduced for land in populated areas. In the cities of Almaty and Astana, higher rates have been introduced for land plots that are attached to, but not occupied by residential units.

Vehicle tax

17. New (higher) tax rates have been introduced based on the size of the engine, with special rates on high performance vehicles.

STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table 1.Kazakhstan: Value Added in the Main Production Sectors, 1993-98
199319941995199619971998
(In millions of Tenge)
Nominal GDP
Industry8,444123,277238,733299,958357,452383,614
Agriculture4,83763,298125,134170,223190,738147,385
Construction2,44040,59965,50162,30170,72377,652
Transport and communication2,93747,283108,203159,704195,579192,944
Trade and catering3,05151,396174,642244,916261,643303,133
Others 1/7,71497,616301,977478,648596,008642,992
Total29,423423,4691,014,1901,415,7501,672,1431,747,720
(Percent change from previous year)
Real GDP growth
Industry-14.0-27.5-8.60.34.1-5.5
Agriculture-6.9-21.0-24.4-5.0-0.8-18.9
Construction-25.9-16.2-37.6-21.88.011.0
Transport and communication-14.4-26.3-12.51.53.3-1.8
Trade and catering-6.3-17.46.114.73.0-2.7
Others 2/-0.90.98.0-0.62.80.0
Total-9.2-12.6-8.20.52.0-2.5
(In percent of GDP)
Share of GDP
Industry28.729.123.521.221.422.5
Agriculture16.414.912.312.211.48.8
Construction8.39.66.54.44.24.5
Transport and communication10.011.210.711.311.79.3
Trade and catering10.412.117.217.315.617.2
Others 1/26.223.129.833.735.637.7
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Mainly services.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Mainly services.

Table 2.Kazakhstan: Industrial Production, 1993-97
19931994199519961997
(In millions of Tenge)
Gross output
Electric power engineering3,64764,834106,936109,523125,224
Fuel industry3,97679,080141,619192,603246,589
Ferrous metallurgy2,66542,84292,81477,212100,805
Nonferrous metallurgy3,39941,12576,87088,080112,258
Chemistry and petrochemistry1,02212,76327,80031,08422,814
Machine building2,58125,17449,24752,56243,402
Timber and wood processing6053,8096,6336,3186,409
Construction materials1,31814,04424,60421,14318,580
Light industry1,50914,23017,30418,37017,351
Food industry2,96435,57591,900109,129137,581
Others1,86520,63433,06142,40460,015
Total25,549354,109668,787748,428891,028
(Percent change from previous year)
Real output growth
Electric power engineering-4.4-15.2-2.8-10.3-14.2
Fuel industry-14.8-14.0-46.23.82.3
Ferrous metallurgy-24.4-29.513.5-17.525.3
Nonferrous metallurgy-7.8-22.86.33.613.8
Chemistry and petrochemistry-44.6-41.11.6-27.0-29.9
Machine building-14.7-37.1-27.3-9.2-29.9
Timber and wood processing-8.7-44.9-40.0-21.8-30.5
Construction materials-26.8-57.1-29.0-37.0-23.7
Light industry-11.7-44.3-59.3-11.3-24.2
Food industry-13.7-26.1-37.5-24.6-3.3
Total-14.0-27.5-8.60.34.1
(In percent of total)
Share of gross output
Electric power engineering14.318.316.014.614.1
Fuel industry15.622.321.225.727.7
Ferrous metallurgy10.412.113.910.311.3
Nonferrous metallurgy13.311.611.511.812.6
Chemistry and petrochemistry4.03.64.24.22.6
Machine building10.17.17.47.04.9
Timber and wood processing2.41.11.00.80.7
Construction materials5.24.03.72.82.1
Light industry5.94.02.62.51.9
Food industry11.610.013.714.615.4
Others7.35.84.95.76.7
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 3.Kazakhstan: Production of Selected Industrial Goods, 1994-99
199419951996199719981999
QI
Production
Crude oil (in thousands of metric tons) 1/20,27920,64122,96025,77825,9336,772
Coal (in thousands of metric tons)104,62583,35576,83172,64769,75615,363
Natural gas (in millions of cubic meters) 2/4,4885,9166,5248,1148,2442,309
Iron ore (in thousands of metric tons)10,52114,90212,97513,1339,3021,647
Electricity (in millions of kwh)66,39766,65959,03852,00049,84714,107
Mineral fertilizers (in thousands of tons)126197191151236
Textiles
Cotton yarn (in thousands of tons)2043221
Woven cotton fabrics (in millions of square meters)85212114103
Paper (in metric tons)7211746715400
Tires (in thousands)2648310711640
Building materials (in thousands of tons)2,0331,7721,11565762177
Cast iron (in thousands of tons)2,4352,5302,5363,0892,594714
Processed meat (in thousands of tons)412273173157
Milk products (in thousands of tons)552279250203
(Percent change from previous year)
Growth of production
Crude oil (in thousands of metric tons) 1/-11.71.811.212.30.60.2
Coal (in thousands of metric tons)-6.5-20.3-7.8-5.4-4.0-22.2
Natural gas (in millions of cubic meters) 2/-32.931.810.324.41.6-4.8
Iron ore (in thousands of metric tons)-19.941.6-12.91.2-29.2-52
Electricity (in millions of kwh)-14.30.4-11.4-11.9-4.1-7
Mineral fertilizers (in thousands of tons)-58.555.8-3.0-20.9-84.857.5
Textiles
Cotton yarn (in thousands of tons)-43.4-79.0-24.8-33.30.0-7.4
Woven cotton fabrics (in millions of square meters)-37.6-74.9-1.4-33.3-28.6-8.5
Paper (in metric tons)-65.8-75.9-61.5129.90.00
Tires (in thousands)-85.2-68.629.4-99.532.70
Building materials (in thousands of tons) 3/-48.7-12.8-37.1-41.1-5.5-27.2
Cast iron (in thousands of tons)-31.43.80.221.8-16.0-2.2
Processed meat (in thousands of tons)-32.3-33.8-36.7-9.2
Milk products (in thousands of tons)-26.9-49.5-10.5-18.8
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes gas condensates.

Consists of both gas from oil wells (gas-oil) and gas from gas wells.

Including cement.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes gas condensates.

Consists of both gas from oil wells (gas-oil) and gas from gas wells.

Including cement.

Table 4.Kazakhstan: Production of Selected Agricultural Goods, 1994-99
199419951996199719981999
QI
(In thousands of metric tons; unless otherwise indicated)
Production
Meat2,1021,7741,5411,3461,213211.3
Milk5,2964,6193,6273,2203,394500
Eggs (in millions)2,6291,8411,2631,2421,388314.5
Wool7558423225
Cereals16,4549,50611,23712,2386,396
Of which
Wheat9,0526,4907,6788,9554,746
Rice283184226255236
Barley5,4972,2082,6962,5831,093
Oats82225035928673
Soybean64334
Potatoes2,0401,7201,6571,4721,263
Tobacco32229
Vegetables7817807788801,079
(Percent change from previous year)
Growth of production
Meat-5.8-15.6-13.1-12.7-9.9-2.0
Milk-5.0-12.8-21.5-8.11.77.0
Eggs-20.0-30.0-31.40.29.77.0
Wool-21.6-22.6-27.6-16.7-28.6
Cereals-23.9-42.218.210.2-48.3
Of which
Wheat-21.9-28.318.316.6-47.0
Rice-29.8-35.022.812.8-7.5
Barley-23.1-59.822.1-4.2-57.7
Oats2.5-69.643.6-20.3-74.5
Soybean0.0-33.3-25.00.033.3
Potatoes-11.2-15.7-3.7-11.2-14.2
Tobacco-25.0-33.30.00.00.0
Vegetables-3.3-0.1-0.213.122.6
(In percent of total production)
Share produced by private farms
Meat61.064.670.376.086.588.9
Milk64.071.178.187.192.393.2
Eggs42.039.645.847.245.534.6
Wool46.051.558.473.782.2
Potatoes78.985.787.588.891.5
Vegetables63.870.175.980.488.7
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 5.Kazakhstan: Livestock Population, 1994-99
199419951996199719981999
QI
(Thousand heads; end-of-period)
Animal population
Cattle8,5507,2325,4254,3073,9584,197
Of which
Cows3,5253,1492,5472,1101,9531,950
Sheep and goats29,75923,06213,67910,3849,55610,080
Pigs2,1471,6321,036879892933
Horses1,6491,5211,3101,083986950
Poultry45,12126,48115,37815,98216,98515,376
(Percent change from previous year)
Growth of animal population
Cattle-9.0-15.4-14.8-13.2-8.1-3.0
Of which
Cows-2.7-10.7-11.3-17.2-7.4-6.0
Sheep and goats-21.0-22.5-25.5-24.1-8.00.1
Pigs-15.2-24.0-22.0-15.11.48.0
Horses-5.4-7.7-6.1-17.4-9.0-6.0
Poultry-13.7-41.3-35.43.96.34.0
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 6.Kazakhstan: Consumer Prices, 1996-99
Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.JulAug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.
(In monthly percent change)
1996
Total4.12.51.73.02.02.51.80.71.22.92.40.8
Food5.83.11.92.32.10.8-1.0-1.4-0.5-0.11.31.1
Bread and cereals3.32.21.63.62.41.41.92.02.30.80.4-0.4
Meat and poultry6.54.23.04.49.22.60.20.0-0.5-0.1-1.3-0.4
Fish2.14.11.61.6-0.40.00.20.40.90.20.20.6
Dairy products6.84.7-0.10.1-1.2-2.1-1.2-0.90.92.92.85.5
Eggs20.4-1.0-1.41.5-5.3-5.4-5.5-1.00.41.15.13.9
Oils and fats1.80.0-0.8-0.6-1.1-1.4-2.5-1.60.60.12.62.2
Fruits and vegetables20.210.07.84.42.92.0-10.3-17.5-14.2-7.69.510.0
Sugar, coffee, tea and condiments0.60.2-0.3-0.1-0.9-0.8-1.1-0.6-0.4-0.9-0.20.0
Beverages at home1.70.80.70.60.70.40.50.80.00.50.30.6
Food and beverages away from home2.54.21.82.01.44.12.71.61.91.50.01.0
Tobacco1.41.70.70.21.20.20.40.10.50.40.50.6
Clothing and footwear0.91.01.00.80.50.30.40.40.80.90.60.3
Rent, water, and power1.22.12.119.05.222.117.28.37.821.811.10.6
Household goods1.11.10.81.00.30.20.10.20.20.40.20.3
Medical Care1.03.00.90.21.31.00.61.41.0-0.10.30.1
Transportation and communication6.12.41.41.13.61.21.61.21.03.91.11.5
Recreation, education and culture2.42.62.62.20.63.92.96.34.44.03.21.9
Personal care0.80.71.11.10.60.50.50.50.52.71.30.8
1997
Total2.11.70.80.80.40.80.7-0.3-0.11.11.51.3
Food2.21.70.8-0.1-0.40.0-0.3-1.2-0.40.21.31.9
Bread and cereals-0.40.2-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.1-0.7-0.2-O.1-0.30.5-0.4
Meat and poultry0.91.20.92.72.60.50.50.20.50.10.01.5
Fish1.31.50.20.1-0.9-2.2-0.60.20.50.12.01.4
Dairy products3.42.31.2-2.8-4.3-4.5-0.60.51.13.86.46.2
Eggs8.20.9-1.2-1.0-6.7-7.4-2.8-2.42.54.55.04.1
Oils end fatas2.02.31.80.5-0.8-1.9-1.00.12.62.41.31.4
Fruits and Vegetables15.18.02.7-2.6-3.1-4.5-10.5-13.1-6.7-0.412.012.4
Sugar, coffee, tea and condiments0.61.41.20.90.68.96.6-1.4-2.6-2.2-1.30.5
Beverages at home0.10.50.50.10.40.40.50.70.30.11.31.1
Food and beverages away from home2.00.82.60.90.30.40.50.60.00.40.41.4
Tobacco1.20.30.40.80.50.70.80.60.80.61.20.8
Clothing and footwear0.50.30.30.20.20.10.00.00.20.30.50.4
Rent, water, and power2.93.01.37.31.85.15.32.30.14.93.90.5
Household goods0.30.10.10.30.20.10.00.10.10.20.00.1
Medical care0.3-0.20.9-1.11.60.5-0.2-0.90.10.1-0.20.1
Transportation and communication6.42.5-0.63.51.00.81.00.10.22.11.00.9
Recreation, education and culture1.14.02.71.33.30.51.20.50.40.20.7
Personal care1.02.10.60.40.9-0.4-0.10.10.00.00.0
1998
Total1.81.10.70.50.3-0.8-0.2-1.0-0.1-0.70.00.3
Food2.71.31.20.10.6-1.4-1.8-1.9-0.5-1.1-0.20.6
Bread and cereals-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-1.0-0.8-0.8-0.60.9-0.2-1.1-0.7
Meat and poultry5.43.14.71.22.61.1-0.2-1.0-0.8-3.2-3.2-2.3
Fish1.51.40.2-0.3-1.4-1.3-0.6-0.60.20.10.11.1
Dairy products2.81.1-1.7-2.9-3.3-3.6-2.1-0.42.41.43.62.9
Eggs4.1-1.7-2.90.2-1.5-5.7-4.7-0.61.7-0.6-1.45.6
Oils and fats0.00.2-0.2-0.7-1.1-4.6-1.20.17.5-2.7-0.8-0.1
Fruits and Vegetables13.65.65.42.67.0-7.1-10.4-14.2-14.1-1.67.711.1
Sugar, coffee, tea and condiments0.60.50.1-0.4-0.8-0.6-1.1-0.51.4-0.6-0.30.3
Beverages at home0.40.30.20.10.20.00.1-0.20.40.00.80.1
Food and beverages away from home0.50.20.91.30.20.50.2-0.11.70.00.80.1
Tobacco1.01.70.60.61.80.70.50.20.30.70.20.1
Clothing and footwear0.20.20.30.20.20.00.00.10.30.30.30.2
Rent water, and power1.41.80.01.00.00.04.50.30.3-0.90.30.2
Household goods0.10.00.00.4-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.6-0.10.0-0.1
Medical care0.1-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.3-0.50.00.0-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5
Transportation and communication1.40.8-0.11.4-0.1-0.30.3-0.40.0-0.20.0-0.4
Recreation, education and culture0.30.30.20.50.30.00.70.21.00.40.00.0
Personal care0.90.60.49.70.2-0.20.2-0.10.2-0.26.20.0
1999
Total0.9-0.2-0.2
Food1.0-0.3-0.3
Bread and cereals-0.3-0.41.2
Meat and poultry-0.7-1.9-1.1
Fish0.0-0.8-0.9
Dairy products1.4-0.4-1.7
Eggs5.9-1.1-5.8
Oils and fats0.2-0.8-0.7
Fruits and Vegetables9.52.841
Sugar, coffee, tea and condiments0.4-0.2-0.3
Beverages at home0.1-0.1-0.1
Food and beverages away from home0.10.30.2
Tobacco0.70.94.1
Clothing and footwear0.20.10.0
Rent, water, and power2.1-0.1-0.1
Household goods0.0-0.1-0.3
Medical care-0.5-1.2-0.9
Transportation and communication0.0-0.8-0.5
Recreation, education and culture0.31.20.4
personal care0.10.30.4
(Percentage change over previous year)
Memorandum items:
Total 199653.347.342.542.241.241.439.937.936.534.932.428.7
Total 199726.225.224.121.519.517.616.415.313.711.710.611.2
Total 199810.810.110.09.79.67.96.96.16.24.32.81.9
Total 19991.0-0.3-1.2
Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.
Table 7.Kazakhstan: Administered Prices, 1996-99 1/
Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.
(Administratively set price for the corresponding month, in Tenge)
1996
Wholesale prices
Oil 2/
Coal 2/
Natural gas547.0551.0551.0551.0551.0551.0551.0549.0549.0549.0529.0546.0
Gasoline 3/
Diesel fuel 3/
Fuel oil 3/
Electricity1.61.61.61.61.61.81.92.02.02.22.22.2
Retail prices
White bread 3/
Gasoline A93 3/
Gasoline A76 3/
Diesel fuel 3/
Fuel 3/
Electricity in rural areasn.a.n.a.n.a.
Electricity in urban areas2.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.12.12.2
Electrical heatingn.a.n.a.n.a.
Water and sewage18.018.919.222.724.929.743.749.656.372.281.581.6
Hot water49.853.854.164.366.8100.4139.3150.8158.9198.5200.6208.4
Rent3.03.33.33.53.83.94.64.84.24.64.74.9
Transportation (public) 4/9.510.09.910.110.110.410.410.410.510.510.610.8
Telephone subscription150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0165.0165.0165.0200.0200.0200.0
1997
Wholesale prices
Oil 2/
Coal 2/
Natural gas547.0547.0548.0548.0563.0563.0563.0563.0563.0563.0594.0594.0
Gasoline 3/
Diesel fuel 3/
Fuel oil 3/4,292.04,315.04,295.03,639.03,393.03,367.03,284.03,282.03,448.03,709.03,704.03,823.0
Electricity2,599.02,664.02,726.02,726.02,738.02,740.02,988.02,999.03,021.02,999.02,970.03,093.0
Retail prices
White bread 3/33.934.034.134.033.833.733.433.433.433.433.233.2
Gasoline A93 3/26.127.227.027.026.726.226.627.327.227.127.528.8
Gasoline A76 3/22.722.221.520.920.119.620.020.119.919.721.324.9
Diesel fuel 3/12,808.113,450.713,922.114,067.013,877.813,841.213,968.215,011.115,228.915,353.215,474.716,659.3
Fuel 3/6,001.85,830.95,930.55,893.56,611.96,597.86,611.95,931.86,190.96,157.96,101.66,199.0
Electricity in rural areas
Electricity in urban areas2.32.42.42.82.92.93.13.13.13.23.43.5
Electrical heating
Water and sewage18.919.820.121.022.122.123.223.423.423.624.024.2
Hot water57.958.157.759.367.267.463.564.964.965.375.275.2
Rent5.05.05.05.15.25.35.36.26.36.36.36.3
Transportation (public) 4/11.512.312.312.012.112.112.512.612.612.912.913.4
Telephone subscription200.5200.020.0270.0270.0270.0270.0270.0270.0320.0320.0320.0
1998
Retail prices
White bread 3/33.633.433.733.633.433.233.032.933.032.932.632.4
Gasoline A93 3/30.930.729.128.528.327.827.527.926.826.526.426.2
Gasoline A76 3/25.724.723.422.421.821.121.520.819.518.818.118.0
Diesel fuel 3/17,399.017,171.515,516.016,418.016,392.815,997.216,139.015,923.015,515.815,265.914,935.514,350.4
Fuel 3/6,464.56,573.46,675.16,572.26,655.56,655.56,226.86,236.66,058.16,182.56,202.66,178.3
Electricity in rural areas
Electricity in urban areas3.53.63.63.63.63.63.83.83.83.73.73.7
Electrical heating
Water and sewage27.927.527.527.727.727.728.728.928.427.627.227.4
Hot water76.580.580.481.181.181.281.481.781.777.677.478.4
Rent6.46.56.66.76.76.76.87.06.96.96.96.9
Transportation (public) 4/13.514.114.314.214.314.314.314.214.213.913.813.7
Telephone subscription320.0320.0320.0340.0338.3338.3338.3338.3338.3338.3338.3338.3
1999
Retail prices
White bread 3/32.332.231.6
Gasoline A93 3/26.024.924.3
Gasoline A76 3/17.716.715.7
Diesel fuel 3/14,026.513,490.312,436.2
Fuel 3/6,202.16,148.05,982.8
Electricity in rural areas
Electricity in urban areas373.7373.7373.7
Electrical heating
Water and sewage27.627.627.6
Hot water78.677.277.2
Rent7.07.07.0
Transportation (public) 4/13.713.713.6
Telephone subscription338.3338.3338.3
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Rents, utility fees (heating, water), and local transportation fares are set administratively at the regional (oblast) level. All other prices are set at the national level.

Prices were liberalized in the second quarter of 1994.

Prices were liberalized in the fourth quarter of 1994.

Prices were liberalized in August of 1994.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Rents, utility fees (heating, water), and local transportation fares are set administratively at the regional (oblast) level. All other prices are set at the national level.

Prices were liberalized in the second quarter of 1994.

Prices were liberalized in the fourth quarter of 1994.

Prices were liberalized in August of 1994.

Table 8.Kazakhstan: Wholesale Price, 1996-99Sorry—the quality of the source document is insufficient to render this image into text.
Table 9.Kazakhstan: Energy Prices, 1994-99 1/(Monthly price, in Tenge)
Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.
1994
Crude oil (ton)1001001006337808801,6831,6831,7671,8202,0002,083
Natural gas (100m3)5213488124139150250253291291291
Electricity (100kwh)9090903503707301,1201,1401,1701,2201,2401,260
Coal (ton)81818179146197319345365504504504
Gasoline (ton)6546786951,5731,6982,0804,4424,4425,1535,5796,0416,041
Diesel (ton)7067287571,3391,4632,0874,1194,1194,4014,4014,9014,901
Mazuth (ton)4524484717758239002,1212,1212,2662,2662,2692,322
1995
Crude oil3,1733,1733,1733,2003,2003,2003,2003,2003,2003,3753,3753,300
Natural gas291291291343349349404414415415454454
Electricity1,2601,2801,3001,3301,3351,3411,3601,3751,3801,4001,4351,460
Coal630653653653628649650650656656628628
Gasoline9,0749,1698,7698,9608,9608,9609,2318,9509,2669,2789,3249,324
Diesel6,4656,6156,6157,1837,1837,1837,1837,0517,1657,2537,2537,034
Mazuth3,7713,9453,5783,2133,2133,2133,0743,3743,3743,5733,4693,469
1995
Crude oil3,3303,5423,5953,6613,6653,6493,6503,6513,6553,6593,6653,676
Natural gas547551551551551551551549549549529546
Electricity1,5111,5591,5671,5871,6241,8401,9292,0462,0462,1752,1802,180
Coal776780778765769772782782785784788788
Gasoline9,5309,5309,53010,31210,31210,3129,9299,9299,9299,9439,9439,943
Diesel7,0567,0567,0567,4257,4257,4257,2647,2647,2647,2987,2987,298
Mazuth3,5063,4383,4383,1283,1283,1283,1283,1283,1283,3253,3253,390
Heating (Goal)7447487547658388438378428439681,0081,010
Liquid petroleum gas (ton)3,1293,1293,1293,3453,3453,3453,3453,3453,3453,3453,3453,345
1997
Crude oil3,9114,0164,0994,1274,1274,1274,1274,1274,1274,1564,1564,242
Natural gas547547548548563563563553563563594594
Electricity2,5892,6642,7262,7262,7382,7102,9882,9993,0212,9992,9703,093
Coal559575577582579581580580580577577577
Gasoline11,59811,81411,84811,84911,94813,16213,16613,18913,17713,25913,25413,263
Diesel8,7078,7298,7258,8558,9869,4489,5809,5849,5829,5819,5809,581
Mazuth4,2924,3154,2953,6393,3933,4173,2813,2813,4183,7093,7043,823
Heating (Goal)1,1171,0971,0971,1311,0941,0941,0921,0801,0821,2351,2351,252
Liquid petroleum gas (ton)3,8643,8713,8694,2494,2514,2674,2684,2704,2704,2704,2704,270
1998
Crude oil4,4794,4984,4814,4594,2964,2114,3144,0453,6883,6273,3683,370
Natural gas776778778778782782784787793799803807
Electricity2,6402,6402,6402,5802,5802,5802,5902,5932,5802,5402,5502,550
Coal735836724725725725721723737737748752
Gasoline14,79014,76714,76914,86714,90414,54113,09712,95113,13713,16213,42412,887
Diesel10,0009,9979,99810,42410,3089,9359,3689,3849,5329,5559,1499,561
Mazuth4,9644,9644,9643,9503,9543,7473,3583.4683,5103,7143,8353,949
Healing (Goal)1,1851,1861,1861,1701,1681,1681,1281,1281,1201,1081,0951,095
Liquid petroleum gas (ton)4,8654,8654,8674,8724,8755,1595,3965,4615,5805,6295,7425,522
1999
Crude oil3,7033,4483,564
Natural gas818821828
Electricity2,3802,3802,390
Coal471491486
Gasoline12,58412,64810,000
Diesel9,3659,3808,651
Mazuth3,0863,0952,980
Heating (Goal)1,1421,1421,143
Liquid petroleum gas (ton)4,1173,5923,494
Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.

Producers’ ex-factory prices. Average prices for all customers.

Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.

Producers’ ex-factory prices. Average prices for all customers.

Table 10.Kazakhstan: Employment, 1993-97 1/
19931994199519961997
(In thousands of people)
Employment
Total5,6305,4154,9944,3803,629
Sectors of material production3,8683,7373,3382,8392,310
Industry1,1951,1211,026916804
Construction492391325251188
Agriculture1,1081,1961,062883658
Forestry13111099
Transport497464418378336
Communication7982807767
Trade and public catering294264225166119
Marketing and purchasing9884716049
Information services108655
Other821161159475
Sectors of non-material production1,7621,6781,6561,5411,319
Municipal services252242248224192
Health and cultural services425425412389337
Education732697685632542
Culture and art9382816752
Science and scientific service7738373228
Credit and state insurance5249474335
Management apparatus132145146154133
(In percent of total)
Share of employment
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Sectors of material production68.769.066.864.863.7
Industry21.220.720.520.922.2
Construction8.77.26.55.75.2
Agriculture19.722.121.320.218.1
Forestry0.20.20.20.20.2
Transport8.88.68.48.69.3
Communication1.41.51.61.81.8
Trade and public catering5.24.94.53.83.3
Marketing and purchasing1.71.61.41.41.4
Information services0.20.10.10.10.1
Other1.52.12.32.12.1
Sectors of non-material production31.331.033.235.236.3
Municipal services4.54.55.05.15.3
Health and cultural services7.57.88.28.99.3
Education13.012.913.714.414.9
Culture and art1.71.51.61.51.4
Science and scientific service1.40.70.70.70.8
Credit and state insurance0.90.90.91.01.0
Management apparatus2.32.72.93.53.7
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Excluding small enterprises.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Excluding small enterprises.

Table 11.Kazakhstan: Labor Marked 1994-98
19941995199619971998
QIQIIQIIIQIVQIQIIQIIIQIVQIQIIQIIIQIVQIQIIQIIIQIVQIQIIQIIIQIV
(In thousands)
Number of job placement inquiries20.022.722.125.426.426.528.635.952.647.044.543.350.546.644.137.346.344.542.845.5
Number of people placed in jobs5.78.88.77.96.58.18.28.06.79.39.67.86.48.38.68.67.39.49.39.1
Number of people granted unemployment status7.98.99.411.514.414.116.123.135.832.731.630.532.532.930.831.933.532.63031.3
Number of unemployed45.951.456.666.481.392.9103.3127.8183.3235.4263.1279.5293.1277.7263.7263.5262272.4264.8254.5
Of which
Beneficiaries17.421.225.130.240.749.054.165.8101.5140.9157.3167.5178.7177.8178.5176.9169.5169159.3150
Number of vacancies28.444.242.733.426.127.625.920.016.217.917.611.68.69.812.99.65.511.212.59.9
Hidden unemployment 1/2/675.6529.0477.0556.2746.5793.4766.6643.3579.4364.1317.1305.2331.7289.5240.3235.0224.1213.1201.2204.3
Total unemployment 3/721.5580.4533.6622.6827.8886.3869.9771.1762.7599.5580.2584.7624.8567.2509.0498.5486.1485.5466458.8
(In percent)
Official unemployment rate 4/0.60.70.81.01.21.51.82.12.73.53.94.14.34.14.03.93.93.93.93.8
Actual unemployment rate 5/9.27.26.88.111.312.111.513.011.48.98.68.69.28.37.57.37.07.06.76.6
Sources National Statistical Agency, Ministry of Labor; and Fund staff estimates.

Defined as workers in part-time jobs and forced leave.

In March 1996, the Ministry of Labor introduced a new methodology of collecting data on hidden unemployment, which has resulted in a reduction in the number for hidden unemployment.

Unofficially unemployed persons are not included.

Ratio of number of officially unemployed to the labor force.

Ratio of number of officially unemployed plus that of hidden unemployed to the labor force.

Sources National Statistical Agency, Ministry of Labor; and Fund staff estimates.

Defined as workers in part-time jobs and forced leave.

In March 1996, the Ministry of Labor introduced a new methodology of collecting data on hidden unemployment, which has resulted in a reduction in the number for hidden unemployment.

Unofficially unemployed persons are not included.

Ratio of number of officially unemployed to the labor force.

Ratio of number of officially unemployed plus that of hidden unemployed to the labor force.

Table 12.Kazakhstan: Nominal and Real Wages, 1994-98(In Tenge per month, unless otherwise indicated)
Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.
1994
Minimum wage304040100100100150150150200200200
Average wage 1/3313704758071,0361,3571,7261,9712,4513,0913,3603,392
Minimum real wage 2/7075641229162756660675853
Average real wage 2/7668749692838484961019683
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)363227312732384352636663
1995
Minimum wage200200250250250250280280280300300300
Average wage 1/3,5713,6504,1614,2824,6134,8305,1855,3525,7295,9636,1946,327
Minimum real wage 2/494654525150545352545150
Average real wage 2/8581883892949899104104103102
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)646269697376839395969899
1996
Minimum wage1,1001,1001,1001,4001,4001,4001,7001,7001,7002,0002,0002,000
Average wage 1/5,6345,7136,2186,5186,4526,7687,0637,1057,3497,5877,4237,674
Minimum real wage 2/174170167207203198236234232265258256
Average real wage 2/878692949193969698989496
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)8787959997101105105107108104105
1997
Minimum wage2,0302,0302,0302,0602,0602,0802,0852,0852,0852,3402,3402,340
Average wage 1/7,5067,4728,2017,9938,3138,7428,8828,6219,0549,2859,0359,205
Minimum real wage 2/255251249250249250249249250277273269
Average real wage 2/9290989598103103101106107103104
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)10299109106110116118114120123120121
1998
Minimum wage2,3602,3602,3602,3802,3802,3802,4002,4002,4002,4402,4402,440
Average wage 1/9,0169,0059,7229,4859,6609,9199,8589,6569,9349,9869,81111,192
Minimum real wage 2/267264262
Average real wage 2/8499107971021041009910310198114
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)119118127124126129128124125123119134
Sources: National Statistical Agency; Ministry of Labor; and Fund staff estimates.

For December, excludes estimated bonus.

December 1993 = 100.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; Ministry of Labor; and Fund staff estimates.

For December, excludes estimated bonus.

December 1993 = 100.

Table 13.Kazakhstan: Wages by Sector, 1993-97 1/(In Tenge)
19931994199519961997
Total1281,7264,7866,8418,541
Sectors of material production1371,9605,3837,4479,278
Industry1712,8017,79210,19812,489
Construction1702,6607,8509,66011,319
Agriculture1011,0382,3923,5123,875
Forestry758702,4424,1655,353
Transport1822,4086,8089,45310,974
Communication1201,8215,8759,15610,209
Trade and public catering851,1753,3414,8835,835
Marketing and purchasing1402,0356,1088,7089,441
Information services1341,8255,4177,23411,237
Sectors of non-material production891,1583,4975,5927,082
Municipal services1021,6424,5756,7808,183
Health and cultural services667972,6754,5685,824
Education818932,9335,0696,320
Culture and art677712,3324,1495,549
Science and scientific service1191,4704,4836,7869,043
Credit and state insurance2884,17910,96713,02217,004
Management apparatus1391,7754,4757,2509,638
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Data are not comparable with monthly wages in Table 12.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Data are not comparable with monthly wages in Table 12.

Table 14.Kazakhstan: Investment in Constant Prices, 1994-98(1991 = 100)
199419951996 1/19971998 2/
TotalStateTotalStateTotalStateTotalStateTotalState
Total investment27.514.015.87.99.44.310.63.213.33.9
Productive investment29.215.018.68.610.64.511.62.6
Industry50.022.229.911.417.54.921.52.025.51.1
Agriculture5.23.52.00.80.90.30.50.20.10.1
Transport and communication49.045.236.032.026.124.220.918.728.321.3
Construction5.50.73.90.62.61.61.80.711.212.1
Trade and catering3.40.65.00.54.11.04.90.617.81.5
Other112.538.512.55.135.74.617.82.2
Non-productive investment23.911.911.04.46.73.98.54.8
Housing14.69.88.63.75.22.25.93.45.02.8
Other42.316.012.54.89.67.013.67.2
Memorandum item:
Index of houses constructed36.727.1
Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.

Adjusted for underreporting.

Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.

Adjusted for underreporting.

Table 15.Kazakhstan: Financing of Investment, 1994-98
19941995199619971998
(In millions of Tenge)
All resources80,945148,590118,981139,790189,296
State enterprises41,25766,84748,99738,38350,609
Budget resources7,3326,0758,3358,89523,926
Own resources33,92660,70540,66229,48826,683
Other 1/39,68881,74369,984101,407138,687
(In percent of total resources)
State enterprises51.045.041.227.526.7
Budget resources9.14.17.06.412.6
Own resources41.940.934.221.114.1
Other 1/49.055.058.872.573.3
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes mainly private sector investment.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes mainly private sector investment.

Table 16.Kazakhstan: Sectoral Composition of Capital Investment, in Current Prices, 1994-98(In percent of total investment)
19941995199619971998 1/
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
For production facilities72.875.077.474.8
Industry55.257.355.960.857.7
Electric power generation7.18.210.64.06.1
Oil extraction industry24.420.520.732.835.4
Oil refining industry2.52.22.11.20.9
Gas industry1.31.92.62.0
Coal industry5.04.53.53.71.0
Ferrous metallurgy4.05.72.83.13.1
Nonferrous metallurgy5.39.67.96.72.2
Construction materials industry0.50.31.11.50.1
Light industry0.30.10.10.00.1
Medical industry0.10.10.10.00.0
Machine building and metalworking0.60.60.50.30.3
Other4.13.63.95.58.5
Agriculture6.03.63.31.50.3
Forestry0.00.00.10.00.0
Transportation7.34.69.58.810.4
Other4.29.48.63.7
For nonproduction facilities27.225.122.625.2
Housing construction12.412.612.011.88.2
Municipal construction7.25.83.65.42.7
Consumer services0.10.10.00.10.0
Public health and social security2.93.02.61.82.2
Public education1.00.90.60.90.4
Culture and art0.50.40.30.51.2
Scientific research0.00.00.00.00.0
Other nonproduction sectors3.22.33.44.7
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Preliminary estimates.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Preliminary estimates.

Table 17.Kazakhstan: Savings, Investment and Growth, 1994-98
19941995199619971998
(In percent of GDP)
Savings and investment
Investment22.620.511.812.911.5
Gross capital formation20.017.910.711.910.5
Public sector9.76.73.73.73.0
Of which
Budget2.61.01.72.02.0
Private 1/10.311.27.08.27.5
Change in stocks2.62.61.11.01.0
Financed by:
Total savings22.620.511.812.911.5
National savings14.017.48.29.35.8
Budget 2/3/-4.8-2.2-3.5-4.8-5.7
Private18.819.611.714.111.5
Foreign savings 4/8.63.13.63.65.7
(Percent change over previous year)
Real GDP-12.6-8.20.52.0-2.5
Real GDP per capita-11.0-7.21.23.1
Memorandum items:
Total factor productivity-8.51.53.8-0.9
Labor force growth-3.0-3.0-2.0-2.2-1.0
Inflation (CPI, end-of-period)1,160.360.428.611.31.9
Fiscal deficit (percent of GDP) 3/-7.4-3.2-4.7-6.8-7.7
Sources: Kazakh authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

This reflects in part reclassification of the public sector to the private sector due to privatization.

Government savings equal revenues minus current expenditures, equivalent to deficit (calculated from fiscal data on revenues and expenditures) plus investment.

Excludes privatization proceeds from revenue.

Foreign savings equal the current account deficit.

Sources: Kazakh authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

This reflects in part reclassification of the public sector to the private sector due to privatization.

Government savings equal revenues minus current expenditures, equivalent to deficit (calculated from fiscal data on revenues and expenditures) plus investment.

Excludes privatization proceeds from revenue.

Foreign savings equal the current account deficit.

Table 18.Kazakhstan: Privatization of State Enterprises, 1994-99(Units)
Before199419951996199719981999
1994Feb.
Small-scale privatization5,5782,7482,4773,3935,5902535523
Mass privatization1474971,12251635
Privatization in agriculture9185131381893
Case-by-case privatization52847130
Total9,2694,1473,1424,0566,7773,073561
Sources: Ministry of Finance; National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Ministry of Finance; National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 19.Kazakhstan: Privatized Enterprises by Sectors, 1994-99
199419951996199719981999
Feb.
(Units)
Industry211484376081527
Construction1105245162501
Agriculture9185141381893
Transport180281013317324
Trade and catering1,3941,3581,5191,27928740
Personal and public services58733728068916925
Other sectors7478061,5363,6902,267448
Of which
Incompleted units1619312266613
Total4,1473,1434,0566,7773,073561
(In percent of total)
Industry5.11.510.89.04.91.2
Construction2.71.71.12.41.60.2
Agriculture22.116.43.40.30.30.5
Transport4.30.92.54.92.44.3
Trade and catering33.643.237.518.99.37.1
Personal and public services14.210.76.910.25.54.5
Other sectors18.025.637.954.473.879.9
Of which
Incompleted units0.40.60.83.32.12.3
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Sources: Ministry of Finance; National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Ministry of Finance; National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 20.Kazakhstan: Summary Accounts of National Bank of Kazakhstan, 1997-98
19971998
DecemberMarchJuneSeptemberDecember
(In millions of Tenge; end period stocks)
Net international reserves131,306111,405110,72491,32499,366
Foreign exchange91,72871,73471,07154,28661,086
Assets129,938109,227106,81888,628110,313
Liabilities, short-term38,21037,44335,74734,34249,226
Gold39,57839,62139,65337,03838,279
Net domestic assets-24,402-19,422-19,097-9,235-17,893
Domestic credit23,07929,60127,10036,40623,827
Credit to Government21,48724,25921,66930,24026,922
Less amount used for sterilization-1,154-5110
Credit to banks, net1,3935,1505,2435,983-3,280
Credit8,2488,1468,2148,5038,766
Special deposits (NBK notes and repos)-6,855-2,996-2,971-2,520-12,046
Credit to the economy199193188182185
Other items (net)-47,481-49,024-46,197-45,641-41,720
Reserve money106,90391,98391,62682,08881,473
Currency outside NBK96,51884,05884,08272,56372,982
Currency held by public92,78280,02279,92668,87268,727
Currency held by commercial banks3,7364,0364,1563,6914,255
Commercial bank deposits10,2547,7767,2239,3067,947
Reserves3128333823
Correspondent accounts9,5527,3746,5988,5954,552
Other deposits6713745936733,372
Demand, time and enterprise deposits131149321220544
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
NBK gross reserves2,2441,9701,9391,6631,967
NBK net international reserves, stock1,7381,4751,4661,2091,315
Foreign exchange, excluding CIS currencies1,214950941719809
Gold524524525490507
Memorandum items: 1/
Change from end of previous quarter
Net international reserves-19,901-681-19,4008,042
Credit to government (net)2,771-2,5908,571-3,318
Credit to government (excluding sterilisation using debt)2,771
Credit to banks3,75793740-9,263
Change from end of previous year (in US, dollar)
Net international reserves-263-272-529-423
Reserve money
Percentage change from end of previous quarter-14.0-0.4-10.4-0.8
Percentage change from end of previous year-14.0-14.3-23.2-23.8
Sources: Kazakh authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

In addition to integrating the accounts of the Budget Bank with those of the NBK, a reclassification of Loro accounts of domestic banks has been made.

Sources: Kazakh authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

In addition to integrating the accounts of the Budget Bank with those of the NBK, a reclassification of Loro accounts of domestic banks has been made.

Table 21.Kazakhstan: Monetary Survey, 1997-1998
19971998
DecemberMarchJuneSeptemberDecember
(In millions of Tenge; end period stocks)
Net International reserves139,720120,147104,43486,96394,277
Foreign exchange100,14280,52664,78149,92555,998
Assets142,344121,613105,332101,42794,045
Liabilities, short-term42,20241,08740,55151,50238,048
Gold39,57839,62139,65337,03838,279
Net domestic assets31,16832,96554,62961,60455,729
Domestic credit105,685111,415127,852138,035136,807
Credit to Government23,23127,18733,66037,63637,122
Of which
Outstanding stock of government paper20,77417,42320,79415,59718,669
Credit to the economy77,45484,22894,191100,39899,685
Of which
Credits denominated in convertible currency25,36331,28342,54346,29542,097
Other items (net)-74,517-78,451-73,223-76,431-81,078
Broad money170,888153,112159,062148,567150,006
Currency in circulation92,79680,02279,92668,87268,727
Deposits78,05573,05879,10879,64481,099
Nonbank institutions50,43645,03248,04449,51350,759
Tenge38,69030,74832,81830,17129,145
Convertible foreign exchange11,05213,55814,55919,12121,043
Nonconvertible foreign exchange694727667221571
Households27,61928,02631,06430,13130,339
Tenge20,74820,31522,67620,95920,866
Convertible foreign exchange6,8607,6948,3749,1639,469
Nonconvertible foreign exchange12171495
Bonds/promissory notes of banks36312851180
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Banking system net international reserves1,8491,5901,3821,1511,248
Foreign exchange1,3261,066857661741
Gold524524525490507
Memorandum items:
Change from end of previous quarter
Net international reserves-19,743-15,714-17,4717,314
Credit to government (net)-8,4006,4733,976-515
Credit to economy7,0009,9636,207-713
Change from end of previous year
Net international reserves of banking system-261-469-700-604
NBK-263-272-529-423
Commercial banks2-197-171-181
Broad money
Percentage change from end of previous quarter-13.63.9-6.61.0
Percentage change from end of previous year-13.6-10.3-16.2-15.4
Sources: Kazakh authorities, and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Kazakh authorities, and Fund staff estimates.
Table 22.Kazakhstan: Interest Rates, 1995-99(In percent; end-of-period)
Inflation Year-on-yearNBK refinance rateYield on 3-month Treasury bilkCommercial bank short-term lending rates 1/2/Commercial bank time deposit rates 1/2/
HouseholdsLegal entities
1995
December60.452.558.891.125.765.0
1996
January53.359.056.987.125.059.8
February47.350.054.286.623.558.1
March42.544.047.085.225.256.6
April42.140.033.969.923.653.6
May41.140.033.369.222.641.4
June41.436.034.972.222.135.8
July39.932.034.259.319.632.8
August38.032.029.354.819.433.7
September36.432.033.265.719.537.1
October34.835.035.149.417.035.5
November32.235.032.345.116.728.1
December28.635.032.346.016.022.0
1997
January26.235.028.040.316.430.3
February25.235.026.837.414.825.1
March24.135.024.636.513.525.9
April21.535.021.735.913.022.3
May19.630.012.939.412.919.7
June17.724.013.937.611.317.8
July36.421.014.637.38.216.0
August15.221.012.835.08.015.2
September13.719.512.634.57.213.1
October11.818.512.828.86.512.9
November10.818.514.628.75.914.4
December11.318.316.123.76.011.8
1998
January11.018.515.823.4
February10.318.516.823.6
March10.218.518.222.34.23.8
April9.918.517.5
May9.818.516.0
June8.018.518.121.14.011.7
July7.118.518.5
August6.320.520.3
September6.320.521.619.84.114.3
October4.420.521.8
November2.925.024.5
December1.925.025.817.44.914.5
1999
January1.025.026.318.25.417.2
February-0.325.026.319.44.617.4
March-1.225.026.322.25.318.8
April2.825.0
May3.9
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan

Credits and deposits in Tenge.

Rates on existing stocks of credits and deposits through December 1996, rates on new credits and deposits thereafter.

Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan

Credits and deposits in Tenge.

Rates on existing stocks of credits and deposits through December 1996, rates on new credits and deposits thereafter.

Table 23.Kazakhstan: Interbank Currency Exchange (KICEX) Auction Rates, 1995-99
Tenge per U.S. dollarTenge per deutsche markTenge per 1.000 Russian ruble
Period averageEnd-of-periodPeriod averageEnd-of-periodPeriod average 1/End-of-period 1/
1995
January55.7657.1536.5738.0014.6314.25
February58.8959.8039.2640.8013.8013.34
March60.2061.3043.1344.4012.9012.20
April62.2062.8045.3945.9512.4912.40
May63.1863.4545.2745.8012.4012.50
June63.5363.3345.7446.0013.5514.25
July62.3059.4545.2743.3513.8513.60
August57.3759.1340.0240.5013.0913.40
September60.2761.1541.5243.5013.4813.70
October61.8562.7143.9343.2313.8113.95
November63.5264.0545.0244.7014.0214.14
December63.9263.9744.5044.4513.7513.80
1995
January64.6165.3044.3944.0713.7713.65
February65.3865.3644.6645.0513.7213.53
March65.1565.2544.2844.3613.4713.38
April65.8366.5043.9243.7013.4313.47
May66.8166.7143.6743.3813.4013.30
June67.0267.1843.9543.9713.2613.16
July67.3667.6244.8245.8013.2213.33
August67.6768.1445.9145.44
September68.9369.5445.8645.75
October69.9970.1246.0446.58
November71.0972.7147.1547.50
December73.3273.8047.3347.70
1997
January75.4475.7947.1946.69
February75.6775.6245.5445.06
March75.1974.3544.6944.48
April75.0375.4944.2244.07
May75.5075.4844.6944.75
June75.4975.5743.8943.61
July75.5975.7442.6041.12
August75.7975.8041.3142.50
September75.7775.7342.3442.86
October75.6975.8041.1744.34
November75.7575.8044.2943.43
December75.8275.8942.9944.20
1998
January76.3276.40
February76.4076.38
March76.5076.61
April76.6976.80
May76.6276.87
June77.0077.20
July77.2677.90
August78.2178.88
September79.7380.57
October81.3782.16
November82.5383.00
December83.9684.00
1999
January84.6585.30
February85.5086.45
March87.3788.10
April112.25114.80
May119.64129.03
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.

Auctions for Russian rubles ceased to be held from July 1996. The activity for German Marks is low and not followed any longer.

Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.

Auctions for Russian rubles ceased to be held from July 1996. The activity for German Marks is low and not followed any longer.

Table 24.Kazakhstan: Number of Commercial Banks and Branches, 1995-98(End-of-period)
Commercial banksBranches
StateInterstateWith Foreign CapitalOtherTotalTotal
Totalof which subsidiaries
1995
December41001251301,036
1996
March611261101291,013
June51126951131,006
September517689102990
December517688101949
1997
January618586101944
February617686100932
March61958197785
April61958197786
May61958096784
June61958096783
July611957298733
August611957298640
September611956490637
October612176290598
November612176290598
December512075682582
1998
January512065076526
February512065076526
March512065076526
April112075173526
May312175277495
June112395075473
July112495076433
August112395075436
September112495076455
October1125114875455
November1124114975455
December1123114671446
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.
Table 25.Kazakhstan: Government Budgetary Operations, 1995-99 1/(In billions of Tenge)
19951996199719981999
Jan.-Mar.Jan.-Jun.Jan.-Sep.Jan.-Dec.Jan.-Mar.Jan.-Dec. Revised budget
Total revenue and grants171.2187.2225.260.6123.3183.4242.854.1363.8
Total revenue171.2187.2224.957.7119.1178.5237.454.1361.0
Current revenue171.2187.2220.156.5116.0174.9234.554.1358.8
Tax revenue131.6160.6204.152.6107.2156.7215.651.0331.0
Tax oil income, profits and capital gains58.864.581.617.534.949.568.511.073.0
Domestic taxes on good and services39.775.091.327.955.182.2114.520.6146.4
Taxes on international trade12.89.08.02.15.57.510.01.910.5
Social tax12.165.1
Other taxes20.312.123.25.111.617.522.55.436.0
Nontax revenue39.626.616.03.98.918.218.93.127.8
Capital revenue0.00.04.81.13.13.62.80.02.2
Total grants0.00.00.32.94.24.95.50.02.8
Expenditure and net lending211.2262.8341.968.6160.8250.9381.762.0489.6
Expenditure191.2245.7318.763.1150.8237.5349.661.0472.5
General Government services25.431.629.45.814.118.531.43.732.5
Defense10.815.017.93.38.010.218.92.617.3
Public order and security15.823.628.25.713.818.730.63.832.2
Education45.648.773.411.828.447.368.513.070.4
Health30.539.735.34.811.617.025.95.055.8
Social insurance and social security7.843.326.613.833.238.753.427.3171.3
Recreation and culture5.613.111.02.15.07.811.81.312.9
Fuel and energy complex1.11.41.10.20.30.30.40.00
Agriculture, forestry, and nature conservation7.29.310.61.53.64.35.90.39.2
Mining and minerals, processing, construction3.66.15.70.20.61.41.90.13.7
Transportation and communications0.10.10.30.10.10.20.20.318.9
Other37.713.879.413.732.173.2100.73.648.3
Net lending20.017.123.25.510.013.432.11.017.1
Regular budget balance-40.0-75.6-116.7-8.0-37.4-67.5-138.9-7.9-125.8
Quasi-fiscal operations (surplus+)6.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Overall budget balance-34.1-75.6-116.7-8.0-37.4-67.5-138.9-7.9-125.8
Statistical discrepancy-6.2-8.8-1.4-2.75.16.4-4.75.00.0
Financing27.966.8115.35.442.573.9134.212.9125.8
Domestic, net0.4-1.716.3-4.710.016.412.4-5.727.6
Banking system9.7-3.714.9-8.4-1.92.05.1-8.412.6
Nonbank-9.32.01.43.712.014.47.32.715.0
Foreign, net20.237.444.44.117.234.846.8-3.039.5
Privatization receipts7.231.154.66.015.222.775.021.658.7
Memorandum items:
Revenues including privatization receipts178.3218.3279.563.6134.4201.2312.375.7419.7
Budget balance excluding privatization receipts-32.9-44.5-62.1-2.1-22.2-44.8-63.913.7-67.1
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff calculations.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated state budget (republican and local budgets) and net position of extrabudgetary funds.

Includes T 21.4 billion in expenditures related to called foreign loan guarantees.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff calculations.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated state budget (republican and local budgets) and net position of extrabudgetary funds.

Includes T 21.4 billion in expenditures related to called foreign loan guarantees.

Table 26.Kazakhstan: Government Budgetary Operator 1995-99 1/(In percent of GDP)
19951996199719981999
Jan .-Mar.Jan.-Jun.Jan.-Sep.Jan.-Dec.Jan.-Mar.Jan.-Dec. Revised budget
Total revenue and grants16.913.213.315.615.414.313.915.020.4
Total revenue16.913.213.214.814.913.913.615.020.2
Current revenue16.913.213.014.514.513.613.515.020.1
Tax revenue13.011.312.013.513.412.212.14.118.5
Tax on income, profits and capital gains5.84.64.84.54.43.83.93.04.1
Domestic taxes on good and services3.95.35.47.26.96.46.65.78.2
Taxes on international trade1.30.60.50.50.70.60.60.50.6
Social tax3.33.6
Other taxes2.00.91.41.31.51.41.31.52.0
Nontax revenue3.91.90.91.01.11.41.10.91.6
Capital revenue
Total grants0.00.00.00.70.50.40.30.00.2
Expenditure and net lending20.818.620.117.620.119.521.93.628.1
Expenditure18.917.418.816.218.818.520.13.527.1
General Government services2.52.21.71.51.81.41.80.21.9
Defense1.11.11.10.91.00.81.10.11.0
Public order and security1.61.71.71.51.71.51.30.21.5
Education4.53.4433.03.53.73.90.74.0
Health3.02.82.11.21.51.81.50.33.2
Social insurance and social security0.83.11.63.54.13.03.11.69.8
Recreation and culture0.60.90.60.50.60.60.70.10.7
Fuel and energy complex0.10.10.10.10.00.00.00.00.0
Agriculture, forestry, arid nature conservation0.70.70.60.40.50.30.30.00.5
Mining and minerals, processing construe lion0.40.40.30.10.10.10.10.00.2
Transportation and communications0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.1
Other3.71.04.73.81.81.11.30.00.0
Net lending-2.01.21.41.41.21.01.80.11.0
Regular budget balance-3.9-5.3-6.9-2.1-4.7-5.3-8.0-0.5-7.2
Quasi-fiscal operations (surplus +)0.60.08.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Overall budget balance-3.4-5.3-6.9-2.1-4.7-5.3-8.0-0.5-7.2
Statistical discrepancy-0.6-0.6-0.1-0.70.60.5-0.30.30.0
Financing2.74.76.81.45.35.77.70.77.2
Domestic, net0.0-0.11.0-1.21.31.30.7-0.31.6
Banking system1.0-0.30.9-2.2-0.20.20.3-0.50.7
Nonbank-0.90.10.11.01.51.10.40.20.9
Foreign, net2.02.62.61.02.22.72.7-0.22.3
Privatization receipts0.72.23.21.51.91.84.36.03.3
Memorandum items:
Revenues including privatization receipts (in percent of GDP)18.317.619.717.918.717.422.226.926.8
Budget balance excluding privatization receipts (in percent of GDP)-3.2-3.1-3.7-0.5-2.8-3.5-3.70.8-3.8
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff calculations.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated state budget (republican and local budgets) and net position, of extrabudgetary funds.

Includes T 21.4 percent of GDP in expenditures related to called foreign loan guarantees.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff calculations.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated state budget (republican and local budgets) and net position, of extrabudgetary funds.

Includes T 21.4 percent of GDP in expenditures related to called foreign loan guarantees.

Table 27.Kazakhstan: Government Budgetary Operations, 1995-991/(In percent of total)
19951996199719981999
Jan.-Mar.Jan.-Jun.Jan.-Sep.Jan.-Dec.Jan.-Mar.Jan.-Dec. Revised budget
Total revenue and grants100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Total revenue100.0100.099.995.296.697.397.7100.099.2
Current revenue100.0100.097.893.494.195.496.6100.098.6
Tax revenue76.985.890.686.986.985.588.894.391.0
Tax on income, profits and capital gains34.434.536.229.028.327.028.220.320.1
Domestic taxes on good and services23.240.140.546.044.744.847.238.140.2
Taxes on international trade7.54.83.53.54.44.14.13.52.9
Other taxes11.96.510.38.49.49.69.322.417.9
Nontax revenue23.114.27.16.57.29.97.810.09.9
Capital revenue0.00.6
Total grants0.00.00.14.83.42.72.30.00.8
Expenditure and net lending100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Expenditure90.593.593.292.093.894.791.698.496.5
General Government services12.012.08.68.58.87.48.26.06.6
Defense5.15.75.24.85.04.15.04.23.5
Public order and security7.59.08.28.48.67.48.06.16.6
Education21.618.521.517.217.718.817.921.014.4
Health14.415.110.37.07.26.86.88.111.4
Social insurance and social security3.716.57.820.120.615.414.044.035.0
Recreation and culture2.75.03.23.03.13.13.12.12.6
Fuel and energy complex0.50.50.30.30.20.10.10.00.0
Agriculture, forestry, and nature conservation3.43.53.12.22.31.71.50.51.9
Mining and minerals, processing, construction1.72.31.70.40.40.60.50.20.8
Transportation and communications0.00.00.10.10.10.10.10.53.9
Other17.85.323.220.020.029.226.45.89.9
Net lending9.56.56.88.06.25.38.41.63.5
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff calculations.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated state budget (republican and local budgets) and net position of extrabudgetary funds.

Includes T 21.4 billion in expenditures related to called foreign loan guarantees.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff calculations.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated state budget (republican and local budgets) and net position of extrabudgetary funds.

Includes T 21.4 billion in expenditures related to called foreign loan guarantees.

Table 28.Kazakhstan: Balance of Payments, 1995-98(In millions of U.S. dollars)Sorry—the quality of the source document is insufficient to render this image into text.
Table 29.Kazakhstan: Composition of Exports, 1995-98
units for volume1995199619971998
VolumePrice 1/ValueVolumePrice 1/ValueVolumePrice 1/ValueVolumePrice 1/Value
(In millions of U.S. dollars)(In millions of U.S. dollars)(In millions of U.S. dollars)(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Customs exports
Oil and gas condensatethousand tons11,307.070.1792.614,503.086.71,257.416,381.8102.01,670.92,042.980.8165.8
Coalthousand tons2,076.716.935.120,839.018.3381.424,857.014.7365.42,357.813.732.3
Oil refining productsthousand tons1,361.384.3115.4248.695.923.81,423.690.2128.41,034.750.051.7
Aluminathousand tons973.3181.9177.0976.7160.4156.71,200.3123.9148.7329.1150.879.8
Refined copperthousand tons216.62,363.4571.0261.92,172.4569.0287.92,100.0604.7323.01,572.4507.9
Unrefined zincthousand tons147.7974.3143.9148.2957.2143.1191.11,146.7219.22,180.0833.21,816.4
Unrefined leadthousand tons58.3530.030.961.0775.647.3778.263.649.5851.7479.4408.3
Chromium ores and concentratesthousand tons1,029.654.756.3762.761.816.2579.627.015.7288.434.813.5
Iron ores and concentratesthousand tons2,023.327.255.03,503.324.485.59,217.020.9193.87,354.824.2177.7
Ferroalloysthousand tons606.0521.3315.9471.9412.4194.6609.7336.1205.0575.5389.3224.0
Rolled ferrous metalthousand tons1,689.3279.9472.91,907.2283.0539.7279.6252.070.42,374.5217.2515.7
Yellow phosphorusthousand tons21.21,258.926.727.71,257.734.817.61,132.920.047.11,411.466.4
Grainthousand tons3,484.188.5308.32,808.9152.6428.63,577.5143.1511.62,905.2101.7295.4
Cotton fiberthousand tons25.71,415.336.469.71,338.196.763.91,213.677.5#DIV/01
Woolthousand tons51.7999.151.731.21,372.442.841.71,367.957.112.01,440.017.3
Natural gasmillion cubic meters2,565.67.619.52,341.813.130.62,431.88.520.72,305.79.822.6
Others1,973.21,803.52,076.7944.8
Total custom exports5,250.25,911.06,497.05,338.9
Operations not included in customs statistics5.80.215.212.6
Shuttle exports184.0380.5387.0422.3
Total exports5,440.06,291.76,899.25,773.8
Source: Kazakh authorities, and staff estimates.

U.S. dollars per unite (ton or piece) except for natural gas which is in U.S. dollars per thousand cubic meters.

Source: Kazakh authorities, and staff estimates.

U.S. dollars per unite (ton or piece) except for natural gas which is in U.S. dollars per thousand cubic meters.

Table 30.Kazakhstan: Composition of Imports, 1995-98
1995199619971998
volumePrice 1/ValueVolumePrice 1/ValueVolumePrice 1/ValueVolumePrice 1/Value
Units for volume(In millions of U.S. dollars)(In millions of U.S. dollars)(In millions of U.S. dollars)(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Custom imports
Oil and gas condensatethousand ton691.663.343.8340.187.129.61,726.096.3166.22,074.270.8146.9
Oil refining productsthousand ton1,175.7128.8151.4895.3226.1202.4617.9263.9163.1783.0235.9184.7
Electricitymillion kilowatts-hours7,394.831.5232.96,614.736.5241.24,703.925.5119.93,573.824.281.6
Natural gasmillion cubic meters9,120.940.8372.15,494.537.5205.83,003.730.792.23,051.836.9112.6
Coalthousand ton1,209.129.235.31,059.830.131.9975.327.426.71,211.124.830.0
Rolled ferrous metalsthousand ton30.5436.413.339.8610.724.342.3583.924.732.4506.616.4
Electrical equipment and mechanical tools868.6994.81,154.31,199.9
Foodstuffs237.3337.8370.6241.6
Nonfood consumer goods271.1307.2400.7356.0
Vehicles265.0360.0367.7385.0
Others1,232.71,429.71,364.31,443.4
Total customs imports3,722.64,164.84,250.54,198.2
Operations not included in customs statistics84.176.350.343.5
Shuttle imports1,379.12,170.93,185.52,574.1
Other corrections140.1214.7-310.7-241.1
Grants28.0351.798.397.7
Non-equivalent barter462.4247.529.9114.9
Freight-347.3-384.5-438.9-453.7
Total imports5,325.96,626.77,175.66,574.7
Sources: Kazakh authorities, and staff estimates.

U.S. dollars per ton except for natural gas, which is in U.S. dollars per thousand cubic meters and electricity which is in U.S. dollars per thousand kilowatt-hours.

Sources: Kazakh authorities, and staff estimates.

U.S. dollars per ton except for natural gas, which is in U.S. dollars per thousand cubic meters and electricity which is in U.S. dollars per thousand kilowatt-hours.

Table 31.Kazakhstan: Geographical Distribution of Exports of Energy Sources to the Baltics, Russia and Other States of the Former Soviet Union, 1995-98
1995199619971998
(In thousands of tons)
Oil and gas condensate
Total6,793.410,567.59,226.710,267.3
Azerbaijan34.10.038.636.0
Belarus0.00.020.1115.2
Kyrgyz Republic0.00.41.50.0
Lithuania880.01,763.8344.00.0
Russia4,795.26,737.35,497.26,925.0
Turkmenistan0.00.00.00.0
Ukraine1,084.12,041.93,111.03,160.7
Estonia0.024.1214.330.4
(In million of cubic meters)
Natural gas
Total2,565.52,341.82,431.82,305.7
Georgia0.0177.00.030.0
Russia2,565.52,164.82,431.82,275.7
(In thousands of tons)
Gasoline
Total134.6184.481.525.6
Kyrgyz Republic92.391.322.319.6
Latvia0.00.00.00.0
Moldova0.00.00.00.0
Russia10.711.86.30.7
Tajikistan13.653.347.15.3
Uzbekistan12.528.03.70.0
Ukraine5.50.02.10.0
Diesel fuel
Total100.1294.3206.361.0
Belarus0.00.00.10.0
Kyrgyz Republic60.765.631.338.8
Latvia0.024.66.51.1
Lithuania1.02.53.50.1
Moldova0.00.00.20.0
Russia8.9157.0142.121.0
Tajikistan9.511.82.10.0
Uzbekistan1.13.70.00.0
Ukraine17.329.117.50.0
Estonia1.60.03.00.0
Heavy furnace fuel
Total137.5194.1144.5138.4
Belarus0.00.00.00.0
Kyrgyz Republic35.789.632.242.2
Lithuania4.40.02.10.0
Moldova0.00.56.00.0
Russia39.381.0101.284.9
Tajikistan0.00.00.00.0
Uzbekistan0.00.60.00.0
Ukraine58.122.43.011.3
Coking coal
Total1,976.11,507.41,371.3262.0
Belarus0.00.00.00.0
Georgia0.00.00.00.0
Kyrgyz Republic5.528.65.70.0
Lithuania0.01.30.00.0
Russia1,959.51,477.51,365.6262.0
Tajikistan0.00.00.00.0
Turkmenistan0.00.00.00.0
Uzbekistan1.20.00.00.0
Ukraine9.90.00.00.0
Source: Kazakh authorities.
Source: Kazakh authorities.
Table 32.Kazakhstan: Geographical Distribution of Exports 1995-98(In percent)
1995199619971998
1. BRO Countries58.1157.1347.5642.04
Armenia0.000.000.000.01
Azerbaijan0.440.160.360.56
Belarus1.030.780.660.41
Estonia0.300.240.662.25
Georgia0.000.170.030.09
Kyrgyz Republic1.431.891.021.18
Latvia0.600.300.310.31
Lithuania2.302.820.700.15
Moldova0.050.050.040.02
Russia45.0642.0335.2128.90
Tajikistan0.771.030.850.79
Turkmenistan0.900.660.770.23
Ukraine2.313.594.674.91
Uzbekistan2.923.412.282.23
2. Non-BRO Countries41.8942.8752.4457.96
Austria0.300.240.070.07
Afghanistan0.100.100.130.14
Belgium0.300.110.390.38
China5.707.766.817.16
Czech Republic0.500.400.290.74
Finland1.001.892.861.66
Greece0.000.020.040.02
Germany3.303.105.435.27
Hungary0.200.190.080.06
Italy2.703.335.509.23
Japan0.901.481.660.93
Netherlands9.705.133.135.15
Oman0.000.000.010.00
Poland0.000.360.430.77
South Korea1.703.012.000.76
Switzerland3.603.584.406.14
Sweden0.100.330.110.14
Thailand0.800.930.980.15
Turkey1.300.871.571.77
United Kingdom2.103.918.458.97
United States0.801.002.141.42
Yugoslavia0.000.010.000.00
Other countries6.795.125.967.03
Total100.00100.00100.00100.00
Source: Kazakh authorities.
Source: Kazakh authorities.
Table 33.Kazakhstan: Geographical Distribution of Imports 1995-98(In percent)
1995199619971998
1. BRO Countries70.6470.5455.6747.94
Armenia0.070.010.040.01
Azerbaijan0.660.530.450.21
Belarus2.042.841.361.44
Estonia0.190.200.190.08
Georgia0.060.070.130.09
Kyrgyz Republic0.812.151.481.14
Latvia0.310.300.740.30
Lithuania0.460.600.510.38
Moldova0.150.190.060.07
Russia49.9054.8145.7939.40
Tajikistan0.320.410.150.09
Turkmenistan6.344.151.070.30
Ukraine2.252.182.172.16
Uzbekistan7.082.101.532.27
2. Non-BRO Countries29.3629.4644.3352.06
Austria1.350.500.850.79
Canada0.200.200.570.92
China0.910.801.081.19
Cuba0.000.600.500.58
Czech Republic0.590.600.731.24
Finland0.801.301.581.67
Germany5.174.708.558.61
Hungary0.550.801.241.21
India0.370.400.460.85
Italy0.791.001.972.10
Japan0.220.400.671.60
Poland0.000.400.951.10
Switzerland1.451.101.151.57
Sweden0.430.300.310.37
United Kingdom2.201.803.295.04
United States1.701.604.696.32
Yugoslavia0.050.100.050.04
Other countries12.5812.2615.6916.86
Total100.00100.00100.00100.00
Source: Kazakh authorities.
Source: Kazakh authorities.
Table 34.Kazakhstan: Breakdown of Foreign Direct Investment by Country, 1993-98(In percent of total)
Country1993-9619971998
Canada3.091.082.48
China4.8514.867.03
Germany1.602.505.62
Iceland2.243.110.26
Indonesia1.865.904.46
South Korea21.4134.172.58
Switzerland1.191.483.79
Turkey5.293.097.20
United Kingdom14.5414.787.01
United States28.449.8832.38
Others15.499.1527.19
Total100.00100.00100.00
Source: Kazakh authorities.
Source: Kazakh authorities.
Table 35.Kazakhstan: Breakdown of Foreign Direct Investment by Industry, 1993-98(In percent of total)
Sector1993-9619971998
Oil and gas43.9134.0866.86
Ferrous metals27.3336.136.27
Non-ferrous metals5.015.251.01
Energy3.806.096.99
Geological exploration0.551.461.48
Mining2.783.210.00
Food3.543.353.48
Banking0.901.236.89
Communication3.136.000.38
Hotels and restaurants0.300.530.76
Other8.752.675.88
Total100.00100.00100.00
Source: National Bank of Kazakhastan.
Source: National Bank of Kazakhastan.
Table 36.Kazakhstan: Stock of External Debt, end of period 1994-98(In millions of U.S. dollars)
19941995199619971998
QIQIIQIIIQIVYear
Total external debt5,4897,2577,5657,9478,3037,3317,331
Excluding IMF4,9376,7127,0407,4347,3236,8796,879
Total Government and General Government external debt (including IMF)2,7813,4283,8894,5954,6404,6884,9103,7483,748
IMF credit289432552545525513479452452
Total Government end General Government external debt (excluding IMF)2,4922,9963,3384,0504,1154,1764,4313,2973,297
Multilateral creditors1893756488949561,0721,1021,2391,239
World Bank189289516716724832844927927
EBRD02236101416282828
ADB06496168218224230284284
Bilateral creditors1,4691,5611.6091,6581,6991,6731,890641641
Russia I 1/1,2501,2501,2501,2501,2501,2501,25000
Russia II 2/6868686868686800
Turkmenistan888
Germany004444444
Japan (JEXIM)143227271238235213221262262
Austria054444455
Sweden033333333
OECF000257065729494
Other 3/000686666268274274
Medium- and long- term made credits8341,060881947910881889866866
Eurobonds200550550550550550550
Non-guaranteed external debts1,5992,6622,9253,2593,3923,5823,582
Medium- and long-term credits and loans2276687589451,1601.4881,488
Short- term1,3721,9942,1672,3132,2332,0942,094
Commercial banks01152032291789797
Enterprises470668643681663724724
Inter-enterprise credits9021,2111,3211,4041,3921,2731,273
Memorandum items:
Government and General Government short-term debt23.542.211.468.319.2112.1112.1
Government and General Government debt by creditor (in percent of total debt)
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Multilateral creditors, excluding IMF6.810.916.719.520.622.922.433.133.1
IMF10.412.614.211.911.310.99.812.012.0
Bilateral creditors52.845.541.436.136.635.738.517.117.1
Medium- and long-term trade credits30.030.922.720.619.618.818.123.123.1
Eurobonds5.112.011.911.711.214.714.7
Sources: Ministry of Economy; Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Intergovernmental debt resulting from conversion of 1992-93 correspondent account balances; it is assumed that deferred interest is capitalized semiannually.

Intergovernment debt resulting from drawings under the 150 billion Russian Ruble technical credit.

Debt guaranteed by the government and assumed as government debt as of the beginning of 1997, plus debt of commercial banks and firms not included elsewhere.

Sources: Ministry of Economy; Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Intergovernmental debt resulting from conversion of 1992-93 correspondent account balances; it is assumed that deferred interest is capitalized semiannually.

Intergovernment debt resulting from drawings under the 150 billion Russian Ruble technical credit.

Debt guaranteed by the government and assumed as government debt as of the beginning of 1997, plus debt of commercial banks and firms not included elsewhere.

38Written by Dominique Desruelle and Patrick Njoroge.
39For a description of the INS, see Zanello and Desruelle (1997).
40While 1998 can hardly be described as a “normal year” with regard to the composition of exports and imports, it is equally difficult to describe any other year as characterizing a normal pattern of trade in view of the pace and depth of structural changes in the economy over the recent years. 1998 data were used as these were the most recent data and as these data incorporated all statistical improvements to-date.
41The 14 categories are; food and live animals; beverages; inedible crude materials except fuels; animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes; oil and products; manufactured goods; ferrous metals and products; copper and products; nickel and products; aluminum and products; lead and products; zinc and products; tin and products; and other base metals and metallo-ceramics.
42These data are summarized in tables 24 and 25 of the World Economic Outlook.
43From the data, 22 of the 172 countries (12.8 percent) had shocks that were equal to or greater than 12.1 percent.

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