The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. With nearly 300 released each year, working papers cover a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Information on seasonal frequencies can provide valuable insights for understanding economic fluctuations. This is particularly true for Italy, where the variability of production in manufacturing is extremely high and almost entirely due to seasonal factors. This paper discusses the option of exogenous seasonality resulting from changes in underlying technology and preferences, versus the possibility of endogenous seasonality arising because of synergies across agents. It then highlights the size of the seasonally-driven capacity slack and discusses its relevance from a welfare standpoint.
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