The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. With nearly 300 released each year, working papers cover a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
This paper explores how a multivariate logit empirical model of banking crisis probabilities can be used to monitor banking sector fragility. The proposed approach relies on readily available data, and the fragility assessment has a clear interpretation based on in-sample statistics. The model has better in-sample performance than currently available alternatives, and the monitoring system can be tailored to fit the preferences of the decision maker regarding type I and type II errors. The framework can be useful as a preliminary screen to economize on precautionary costs.