Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources-Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources-Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections
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Volume/Issue:
2007/70
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Atish Ghosh, Juan Zalduendo, Manuela Goretti, Bikas Joshi, and Alun Thomas
Publisher:
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Published Date:
March 2007
DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451866346.001
ISBN:
9781451866346
ISSN:
1018-5941
Page:
44
This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.
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