The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Models of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates (FEERs) impose internal and external balance, and so appeal to fundamental notions of equilibrium from a macroeconomic perspective. However, the need to estimate internal and external imbalances creates uncertainty in the approach. Parameters must be estimated, and equilibrium balances must be gauged using judgement. Hence it makes sense to consider the FEER as a statistical estimate rather than a fixed number, and to calculate confidence intervals for the FEER. This paper calculates such confidence intervals with data for Canada, under a variety of assumptions. The estimated confidence intervals are quite wide, principally because of uncertainty about price elasticities in the underlying trade equations.