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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
,
Davide Lombardo
,
Risto Herrala
,
Ms. Priscilla Toffano
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
, and
Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Keywords:
SDN; conflict country; refugee crisis; central bank; economic activity; country authorities; Middle East and North Africa; conflicts; refugees; macroeconomic policy; economic spillovers; post-conflict reconstruction; international community; MENA region; MENA country; physical capital; financial support; IMF staff calculation; growth potential; MENA conflict country; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Inflation; Middle East; North Africa; Global; East Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Are the Potential Economic Benefits of Enlarging the Gulf Cooperation Council?
Mr. Selim A Elekdag
,
Mr. Saade Chami
, and
Mr. Ivan Tchakarov
This paper uses a variant of the IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) to estimate the macroeconomic effects of Yemen's full accession into the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). After calibrating the model to Yemen and the GCC countries, several simulations were carried out to estimate the potential impact of economic integration on both. The paper draws two fundamental conclusions. First, further steps in regional integration would enhance competition and produce large economic benefits for both Yemen and the GCC countries. In particular, we show that in some cases economic integration could increase GDP in Yemen by as much as 18 percent and in the GCC by as much as 20 percent over the long run. Second, even if market structures do not improve substantially, GCC enlargement can still generate substantial spillover gains with consumption increasing by up to 7 percent in Yemen and 8 percent in the GCC, respectively.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; GCC; labor market; regional integration; competition; IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM); goods market; Yemeni product markets; GCC enlargement; GCC member; GCC Labor; GCC block; market power; Labor markets; Consumption; Real exchange rates; Commodity markets; Global