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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
,
Davide Lombardo
,
Risto Herrala
,
Ms. Priscilla Toffano
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
, and
Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Keywords:
SDN; conflict country; refugee crisis; central bank; economic activity; country authorities; Middle East and North Africa; conflicts; refugees; macroeconomic policy; economic spillovers; post-conflict reconstruction; international community; MENA region; MENA country; physical capital; financial support; IMF staff calculation; growth potential; MENA conflict country; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Inflation; Middle East; North Africa; Global; East Africa; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Economic Diversification in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries
International Monetary Fund
countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
Keywords:
PP; exporting; economy; GDP; diversification; economic diversification; labor market; public spending; IMF staff estimate; exchange rate; job creation; oil price; Oil prices; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Public sector; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Avoiding the New Mediocre: Raising Long-Term Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Ms. Pritha Mitra
,
Amr Hosny
,
Gohar Minasyan
,
Mr. Mark Fischer
, and
Gohar Abajyan
Raising the Middle East and Central Asia’s long-term growth prospects is critical for meeting the region's pressing need for jobs and higher living standards.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; physical capital; GCC MENAP; exporter; oil exporter; oil importer; physical capital accumulation; foreign direct investment; physical capital growth; employment growth; Productivity; Oil; Employment; Capital accumulation; Oil prices; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges
International Monetary Fund
The Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) have had diverging trajectories over the past year and face an uncertain outlook.1 Improvements in the European economy, lower oil prices, and some progress on the policy front have provided tailwinds to growth, which is expected to pick up significantly in Egypt and Morocco. At the same time, unemployment remains high. Moreover, several of the ACTs have also suffered from intensifying and spreading conflicts that cause widespread human suffering and sizeable economic challenges. Libya and Yemen are directly affected, while spillovers from these conflicts and the civil wars in Iraq and Syria weigh on Jordan and Tunisia, as well as other countries in the region (e.g., Lebanon, Djibouti), Turkey and Europe. These spillovers come most prominently in the form of large refugee flows, deteriorating security, and pressures on economic infrastructures and labor markets. All these factors add urgency to the need in the Arab countries to strengthen economic resilience and address long-standing sources of inequity and exclusion. Coordinated and scaled-up support from the international community will be also critical in stabilizing conditions in the region, addressing the refugee crisis, and securing a more promising economic future for the ACTs in this challenging environment.
Keywords:
PP; government; deficit; financing; country; General government balance; budget deficit; job creation; exchange rate; labor market; economic activity; excl. grant; GDP growth; Current account deficits; Inflation; Government debt management; Oil prices; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa: Recent Progress and Challenges Ahead
Mr. Carlo A Sdralevich
,
Miss Randa Sab
,
Mr. Younes Zouhar
, and
Ms. Giorgia Albertin
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; subsidy reform; exchange rate; fuel price; price increase; price subsidy; energy subsidy; food subsidy; fuel subsidy; Energy subsidies; Fuel prices; Inflation; Oil prices; Social assistance spending; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; oil importer; oil exporter; reform outcome; reforms in the Middle East; Oil
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges
International Monetary Fund
In spite of deepening and spreading conflicts in the region, as well as, in many cases, a challenging internal socio-political environment, the Arab Countries in Transition (Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen) have broadly maintained macroeconomic stability. At the same time, however, their economies are not delivering the growth rates needed for a meaningful reduction in unemployment, in particular for the youth and women. Notwithstanding diversity of conditions, countries should quickly advance structural reforms to foster higher and more inclusive growth, and continue to strengthen fiscal and external buffers to maintain stability amid heightened uncertainty. Coordinated support from the international community will be crucial in the form of financing, improved trade access, and capacity building assistance.
Keywords:
PP; current account; monetary policy; excl. grant; exchange rate; economic activity; labor market; private sector; government balance; Current account deficits; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Middle East; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges - Deauville Partnership Ministerial Meeting
International Monetary Fund
In an environment of heightened socio-economic tensions, regional insecurity, and strained public finances, the Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) 1 face the difficult task of delivering on the expectations for jobs and growth. Despite patchy improvements in some countries, economic growth remains subdued, private investment is weak, and external and fiscal buffers are running low. Fostering social cohesion and avoiding a downward spiral of economic and political malaise calls for urgent implementation of economic reforms and coordinated support from the international community.
Keywords:
PP; excl. grant; exchange rate; job creation; monetary policy; foreign exchange; General government balance; financial support; government balance; reform program; grant financing; financing needs; transition countries' financing gap; credit growth; Current account deficits; Government debt management; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Middle East; Deauville partnership ministerial meeting; countries in transition; title page; key challenge; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Republic of Yemen: 2013 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This staff report on the Republic of Yemen’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic development and policies. The macroeconomic situation stabilized in 2012, but the recovery remains fragile. After contracting by more than 12 percent in 2011, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.4 percent in 2012, reflecting an easing of supply bottlenecks, and utilization of part of idle capacity. On the other hand, oil production declined further, due to continued sabotage of the pipelines. Average inflation declined to 9.9 percent from 19.5 percent in 2011, reflecting the appreciation of the rial to its pre-crisis level, the moderation of international food prices, and the easing of supply shortages.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; Yemen; debt; Yemeni authorities; real GDP; exchange rate system; aid disbursement; inflation objective; address unemployment; Balance of payments statistics; Government finance statistics; Global; Middle East; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges - Deauville Partnership Ministerial Meeting
International Monetary Fund
Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) continue to face high political uncertainty and social pressures. The uprisings and protests have generated the promise of a better life for 300 million people, but forthcoming elections and constitutional reform, as well as populations anxious for jobs and higher incomes, complicate policymaking for many governments. At the same time, fiscal and reserves buffers have diminished sharply, underscoring the urgent need to maintain macroeconomic stability in an environment of sluggish global growth, high commodity prices, and still impaired domestic confidence. Resolute policy action and support from the international community are required; particularly as last year’s subdued growth in the ACTs (except Libya) is expected to improve only slightly in 2013 and is overshadowed by persistent external and regional risks. It will be equally important for policymakers to move quickly on designing and implementing effective structural reforms to build dynamic and inclusive economies that generate (many) more jobs than are available today. Promoting private-sector growth and international trade, as well as attracting foreign direct investment inflows, will be key components of success. Financial assistance and technical expertise from external partners, including Transition Fund projects, can make a big difference in this endeavor.
Keywords:
PP; government; price; financing; reform program; subsidy; coalition government; stabilization program; international community; authorities' stabilization program; home-grown program; unity government; acts government; Inflation; Government debt management; Current account deficits; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring
Padamja Khandelwal
and
Agustin Roitman
Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.
Keywords:
WP; current account; government; deficit; IMF staff projection; Economic growth; political instability; Arab Countries in Transition; Arab Spring; government crisis; PI episode; E. exchange rates; regime change; country indices; inflation development; current account balance; currency depreciation; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Exchange rate flexibility; Current account deficits; Real effective exchange rates; Global; Africa; Eastern Europe