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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries
Ali Compaoré
,
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
, and
Sandrine Sourouema
While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper therefore investigates whether rising conflict and political instability globally over the past several decades led to increased occurrence of banking crises in developing countries. The paper provides strong evidence that conflicts and political instability are indeed associated with higher probability of systemic banking crises. Unsurprisingly, the duration of a conflict is positively associated with rising probability of a banking crisis. Interestingly, the paper also finds that conflicts and political instability in one country can have negative spillover effects on neighboring countries’ banking systems. The paper provides evidence that the primary channel of transmission is the occurrence of fiscal crises following a conflict or political instability.
Keywords:
WP; banking crisis; fiscal crisis; government crisis; state fragility index; conflict; political instability; banking crises; fiscal crises; liquidity shortage; countries matter; banking turmoil; economic growth; banking liquidity shortage; occurrence of a banking crisis; systemic banking crisis; terms of trade; experiencing banking crisis; Commercial banks; Systemic crises; Terms of trade; Logit models; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; banking crises in year; occurrence of banking crisis; start of a banking crisis
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
,
Davide Lombardo
,
Risto Herrala
,
Ms. Priscilla Toffano
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
, and
Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Keywords:
SDN; conflict country; refugee crisis; central bank; economic activity; country authorities; Middle East and North Africa; conflicts; refugees; macroeconomic policy; economic spillovers; post-conflict reconstruction; international community; MENA region; MENA country; physical capital; financial support; IMF staff calculation; growth potential; MENA conflict country; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Inflation; Middle East; North Africa; Global; East Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are Banks Really Lazy? Evidence from Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Simon T Gray
,
Mr. Philippe D Karam
, and
Ms. Rima A Turk
We investigate whether low loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios and high levels of reserve balances at the central bank (or holdings of government securities) are a reflection of policy-driven factors compared to commonly cited reasons of reluctance to lend or sometimes weak investment demand in uncertain environments. We examine changes to central bank (CB) balance sheet structures as well as commercial banks’ flow of funds over the period 2007–2012. First, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) CBs play an active role in view of their size that is very large with respect to their economies compared to CBs in advanced economies. Second, under exchange rate targeting, most MENA CB balance sheets are asset-driven, holding foreign exchange (FX) reserves to support the exchange rate policy and resulting in lower loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios in the case of unsterilized increases in FX. Third, CB policy decisions seem to be accompanied by an increase in commercial bank reserve money balances, with ensuing reduction in the LTD. Finally, if governments meet their financing needs from the banking system—whether from commercial banks or by monetary financing—commercial bank balance sheets will tend to expand, resulting in lower LTD ratios. Our analysis suggests that government and CB actions may also drive the demand for and supply of credit, which are traditionally attributed to the behavior of banks and non-financial corporates and households only. The findings offer a different interpretation of changes in CB and banks’ balance sheets, with direct implications for LTD, calling to exercise caution in recommending policy action which aim at propping up LTD to ‘appropriate’ levels in an effort to reinvigorate credit following a downturn.
Keywords:
WP; Ltd ratio; balance sheet structure; CB action; asset purchase; CB financing; FX reserve; MENA; central banks; banks; credit; a number of AE CBs; CB bill; CB asset; credit growth; Commercial banks; Financial statements; Bank credit; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Toward New Horizons: Arab Economic Transformation amid Political Transition
Mr. Harald Finger
and
Ms. Daniela Gressani
The changing political landscape in the Arab world has created opportunities for economic transformation by tackling long-standing economic issues. Nevertheless, three years after the onset of political transition, implementing necessary economic policies has proven to be challenging. This paper lays out key elements of economic policy reform for Arab countries in transition.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; labor market; private sector; central bank; job creation; monetary policy
Cover Departmental Papers
Vers de nouveaux horizons : La transformation économique sur fond de transition politique dans le monde arabe
Mr. Harald Finger
and
Ms. Daniela Gressani
Les mutations du paysage politique dans le monde arabe ouvrent des perspectives pour transformer l'économie en remédiant à des problèmes économiques de longue date. Néanmoins, trois ans après le début de la transition politique dans le monde arabe, force est de constater qu'il a été difficile de gérer les transitions et de mettre en œuvre les réformes économiques nécessaires. Ce document présente des éléments de réformes essentiels dans le domaine de la politique économique pour les pays arabes en transition.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; labor market; private sector; central bank; job creation; monetary policy
Cover Departmental Papers
Toward New Horizons: Arab Economic Transformation amid Political Transition
Mr. Harald Finger
and
Ms. Daniela Gressani

The changing political landscape in the Arab world has created opportunities for economic transformation by tackling long-standing economic issues. Nevertheless, three years after the onset of political transition, implementing necessary economic policies has proven to be challenging. This paper lays out key elements of economic policy reform for Arab countries in transition.

Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; labor market; private sector; central bank; job creation; monetary policy; Exchange rate flexibility; Employment; Global; North Africa; East Asia; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Safeguards Assessments - 2012 Update
International Monetary Fund
The safeguards policy was introduced in 2000 to reduce the risks of misuse of Fund resources and misreporting of program monetary data to the Fund. It supports the Fund’s approach to prudent lending and complements other safeguards such as program design, conditionality, and access limits, to name a few. Some 242 assessments of 92 central banks have been completed since 2000. Assessments are followed by a period of monitoring for as long as Fund credit is outstanding.
Keywords:
PP; audit; control framework; risk management practice; sheet risk; fy; governance framework; ownership of change; External audit; Auditing; Central bank balance sheet; Central bank governance; Monetary statistics; Middle East and Central Asia; West Africa; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Yemen: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Yemen.
International Monetary Fund
Yemen is confronted with a range of difficult economic challenges. The reduction in oil revenues in the past year has affected the Yemeni economy through a set of direct and indirect channels. The loss of oil revenue contributed to a record fiscal deficit of about 10 percent of GDP in 2009, financed in large part by the central bank. The balance of payments was also put under considerable strain. The identified measures are home-grown and designed to have a long-lasting impact on the structure of the budget.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; equivalent to SDR; disbursement equivalent; public finance; priority reform; tax policy reform; exchange rate pressure; U.S. dollar; balance of payments; current account; broad money; Currencies; Fuel prices; Middle East; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Yemen: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; net; Yemen; deposit; Yemen Gulf bank; commercial bank bank deposit; central bank of Yemen; factor income; return on equity; capital goods; pension fund deposit; return on assets; output share; quasi money deposit; fund staff estimate; public enterprise deposit; Oil; Commercial banks; Bank deposits; Imports; Oil exports; Africa
Cover Ieo Evaluation Report IMF Technical Assistance 2005
Ieo Evaluation Report IMF Technical Assistance 2005
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This evaluation examines the technical assistance (TA) provided by the IMF to its member countries. The evaluation is based on desk reviews of a broad sample of countries, analyses of cross-country data on TA, six in-depth country case studies, reviews of past evaluations, and interviews with IMF staff and other stakeholders. The objective of the IMF TA is to contribute to the development of the productive resources of member countries by enhancing the effectiveness of economic policy and financial management.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; IMF TA; TA activity; TA priority; TA resource; IMF TA activity; Tax administration core functions; Civil service; Commercial banks; Tax collection; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; West Africa; Baltics; Asia and Pacific; Financial Sector Assessment Program