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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries
Carlos Caceres
and
Leandro Medina
The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices—that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices. 
Keywords:
WP; price; break-even price; break-even; oil price; Fiscal risk; stochastic simulations; oil prices; volatility; break-even prices; breakeven price; price change; price of oil; spot market; price of Brent; Commodity price fluctuations; Fiscal risks; Futures; Commodity prices; Middle East; North Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.
Keywords:
WP; oil price; price; revenue; Oil producing countries; fiscal policy; oil revenue; oil GDP; fiscal policy in OPCs; short-term fiscal policy stance; term perspective; fiscal policy position; fiscal policy shock; fiscal policy Procyclicality; fiscal policy change; investment expenditure; fiscal policy stance; low income OPCs; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Personal income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Primeron Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries
Mr. Paulo A Medas
and
Ms. Daria V Zakharova
This paper proposes an integrated approach to fiscal policy analysis in oil producing countries (OPCs) geared towards addressing their unique and complex policy challenges. First, an accurate assessment of the fiscal stance in OPCs can be obscured by large and volatile oil revenue flows. Second, uncertain and volatile oil revenue flows can complicate the management of macroeconomic policies in these countries. Third, given the exhaustibility of oil reserves, OPCs need to address longer-term sustainability and intergenerational equity issues. The use of non-oil fiscal indicators, stress tests, medium-term frameworks, and permanent oil income models can greatly aid in addressing these challenges.
Keywords:
WP; oil revenue; oil price; fiscal policy analysis; medium term; annual budget; economic growth; policy response; fiscal policy; oil producing countries; resource revenue; expenditure quality; oil price volatility; oil GDP; oil price shock; oil revenue uncertainty; B. managing oil revenue volatility; expenditure volatility; WEO oil price; rate of return; revenue performance; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Middle East and Central Asia