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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Business Fluctuations; Cycles x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17
Majdi Debbich
This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using estimated nightlights elasticities on a sample of 72 countries for real GDP and 28 countries for oil GDP over 6 years, I derive oil and non-oil GDP growth for Yemen. I show that real GDP contracted by a cumulative 24 percent over 2015-17 against 50 percent according to official figures. I also find that the impact of the conflict has been geographically uneven with economic activity contracting more in some governorates than in others.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; radiant heat; conflict; economic growth; nighttime lights; nightlights data; nightlights intensity; producing governorate; oil production data; data remains; growth in Yemen; VIIRS data; satellite data; real GDP equation; Oil; Oil production; Natural gas sector; Economic recession; Oil sector; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output: The Role of Reforms
Mr. Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo
,
Davide Furceri
, and
Mr. Dominique M. Guillaume
The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effect of social and political instability on output. Using a panel of up to 183 countries from 1980 to 2010, the results of the paper suggest that social conflicts have a significant and negative impact on output in the short-term with the magnitude of the effect being a function of the intensity of political instability. The results also show that the recovery of output over the medium-term depends on the ability of the country to implement, in the aftermath of a social instability episode, reforms aimed at improving the level of governance. The results are robust to different checks and estimation strategies.
Keywords:
WP; social conflicts; reforms; crisis; growth; governance indicator; adverse regime changes; governance reform; governance data; level of governance; political system; Production growth; Eastern Europe