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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries
Ali Compaoré
,
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
, and
Sandrine Sourouema
While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper therefore investigates whether rising conflict and political instability globally over the past several decades led to increased occurrence of banking crises in developing countries. The paper provides strong evidence that conflicts and political instability are indeed associated with higher probability of systemic banking crises. Unsurprisingly, the duration of a conflict is positively associated with rising probability of a banking crisis. Interestingly, the paper also finds that conflicts and political instability in one country can have negative spillover effects on neighboring countries’ banking systems. The paper provides evidence that the primary channel of transmission is the occurrence of fiscal crises following a conflict or political instability.
Keywords:
WP; banking crisis; fiscal crisis; government crisis; state fragility index; conflict; political instability; banking crises; fiscal crises; liquidity shortage; countries matter; banking turmoil; economic growth; banking liquidity shortage; occurrence of a banking crisis; systemic banking crisis; terms of trade; experiencing banking crisis; Commercial banks; Systemic crises; Terms of trade; Logit models; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; banking crises in year; occurrence of banking crisis; start of a banking crisis
Cover IMF Working Papers
Middle East Transitions: A Long, Hard Road
Shahid Yusuf
Since the onset of the Arab Spring, economic uncertainty in Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen (Arab Countries in Transition, ACTs) has slowed already sluggish growth; worsened unemployment, particularly of youth; undermined business confidence, affected tourist arrivals, and depressed domestic and foreign direct investment. Furthermore, political and social tensions have constrained reform efforts. Assessing policy options as presented in the voluminous literature on the Arab Spring and based on cross-country experience, this paper concludes that sustainable and inclusive growth calls for a two pronged approach: short term measures that revive growth momentum and partially allay popular concerns; complemented with efforts to adjust the public’s expectations and prepare the ground for structural reforms that will deliver the desired longer tem performance.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; private sector; export-led growth; Mena country; regime change; unemployment rate; economic transition; growth; youth unemployment; institutions; education; social safety nets; SMEs; SEZs; transaction costs; enterprise reform; anchor firm; density entry rate; on-the-job training; free trade zone; natural resource; Exports; Employment; Public sector; Manufacturing; East Asia; Global; Eastern Europe; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Yemen: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; net; Yemen; deposit; Yemen Gulf bank; commercial bank bank deposit; central bank of Yemen; factor income; return on equity; capital goods; pension fund deposit; return on assets; output share; quasi money deposit; fund staff estimate; public enterprise deposit; Oil; Commercial banks; Bank deposits; Imports; Oil exports; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Debt and Growth
Mr. Luca A Ricci
and
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
This paper assesses the non linear impact of external debt on growth using a large panel data set of 93 developing countries over 1969–98. Results are generally robust across different econometric methodologies, regression specifications, and different debt indicators. For a country with average indebtedness, doubling the debt ratio would reduce annual per capita growth by between half and a full percentage point. The differential in per capita growth between countries with external indebtedness (in net present value) below 100 percent of exports and above 300 percent of exports seems to be in excess of 2 percent per annum. For countries that are to benefit from debt reduction under the current HIPC initiative, per capita growth might increase by 1 percentage point, unless constrained by other macroeconomic and structural economic distortions. Our findings also suggest that the average impact of debt becomes negative at about 160–170 percent of exports or 35–40 percent of GDP. The marginal impact of debt starts being negative at about half of these values. High debt appears to reduce growth mainly by lowering the efficiency of investment rather than its volume.
Keywords:
WP; debt; net present value; GDP; spline; Growth; external debt; debt relief; HIPC initiative; debt indicator; debt variable; Laffer curve; debt stock; debt to export; debt dummy; debt-growth relationship; Exports; Debt burden; Fiscal stance; Debt service; Estimation techniques; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This volume contains decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the IMF, as well as selected documents relating to current activities of the Fund.

Keywords:
SELD; selected document; decisions of the executive board; allocations of special drawing rights; No. 6-8; Japanese yen; Currencies; Multiple currency practices; Personal income; Reserve assets; Loans; Global; Africa; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; United Nations General Assembly 377; capital transfer; Imports; Credit
Cover Selected Decisions, 20th Ed. 1995
Selected Decisions, 20th Ed. 1995
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper analyses several IMF’s selected decisions of the Executive Board and selected documents. The Executive Board has reviewed the procedures relating to the IMF's surveillance over members' exchange rate policies. Whenever the Managing Director considers that important economic or financial developments are likely to affect a member's exchange rate policies or the behavior of the exchange rate of its currency, he shall initiate informally and confidentially a discussion with the member. A staff report will be circulated to the Executive Directors under cover of a note from the Secretary specifying a tentative date for Executive Board discussion which will be at least 15 days later than the date upon which the report is circulated. The bicyclic consultation procedure shall be terminated and each member currently on the bicyclic procedure shall be immediately placed on the standard 12-month cycle; the first consultation with each such member that is completed after the adoption of this decision shall be conducted in accordance with the procedures that apply to consultations under the standard 12-month cycle, and the deadline for completion that applied under the bicyclic procedure shall continue to apply to such consultation.

Keywords:
SELD; allocations of special drawing rights; capital transfer; decision No. 1238; SDR equivalent; Japanese yen; Currencies; Multiple currency practices; Personal income; Loans; Credit; Global; Africa; Central and Eastern Europe; Caribbean; Eastern Europe; West Africa; Reserve assets; Imports
Cover Financial Assistance from Arab Countries and Arab Regional Institutions
Financial Assistance from Arab Countries and Arab Regional Institutions
Mr. P. van den Boogaerde

Abstract

Arab financial assistance to developing - particularly Arab - countries rose sharply between 1973 and 1980 but fell gradually through the 1980s, owing mainly to weakening oil prices. As a percent of GNP, however, Arab contributions remain the largest among major donors. This paper surveys the volume and distribution of Arab financing from 1973 to 1989.

Keywords:
OP; IMF staff calculation; disbursement; recipient country; net disbursement; donor country; assistance flow; Loans; Outward remittances; Concessional external borrowing; Imports; Project loans; Middle East; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific; price-production strategy
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Composition and Distribution of Financial Assistance From Arab Countries and Arab Regional Institutions
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines the volume and distribution of concessional and nonconcessional financial flows from Arab countries, and aid agencies, and regional institutions to developing countries. Arab financial assistance increased very rapidly from 1973 to 1980 in line with the rapid growth in oil revenues. Essentially because of the softer oil market, this trend was reversed in the 1980s. Nonetheless, the Arab contributions as a share of GNPs remain by far the most generous among the major donor groups. Arab recipient countries received nearly 62 percent of total Arab financial assistance. Together with large flows of workers’ remittances, this assistance accelerated their economic development beyond what would have been otherwise possible.
Keywords:
WP; balance of payments; economic development; gross national product; recipient country; net disbursement; net importer; debtor country; outstanding balance; donor country; Loans; Concessional external borrowing; Project loans; Imports; Balance of payments assistance; Middle East; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover Effects of Slowdown in Industrial Countries on Growth in Non-Oil Developing Countries
Effects of Slowdown in Industrial Countries on Growth in Non-Oil Developing Countries
Mr. Mohsin S. Khan
and
Mr. Morris Goldstein

Abstract

One of the more important yet puzzling aspects of the recent global stagflation has been the rather surprising resiliency of growth rates of real income in non-oil developing countries during the 1973-80 period in the face of the marked slowdown of corresponding growth rates in the industrial world. The primary purpose of this paper is to shed some light on this phenomenon by examining the relationship between the rate of economic growth in the non-oil developing countries and that in the industrial countries over the past decade or so.

Keywords:
OP; developing country; oil developing countries; country; growth rate; export; industrial country; country growth; rate of growth; developing country group; country imports; Exports; Imports; Export performance; Personal income; Oil exports; Middle East; Africa; South America; Western Hemisphere; North America; Western Europe