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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

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Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
A Framework for Monitoring of and Reporting for External Project Loans in Developing Countries
Emre Balibek
,
Guy T Anderson
, and
Kieran McDonald
To produce timely and accurate debt reports at the central government level, it is essential to have a sound legal, administrative, and operational framework in place for debt data compilation, reconciliation, accounting, monitoring, and reporting. This note focuses on the arrangements for external project-based debt, which present distinctive challenges in debt reporting particularly in low-income and developing countries. The discussion complements existing literature and guidance on debt transparency by focusing on stages prior to the production of debt reports. The note also identifies the links between the management of project loans and other public financial management (PFM) processes, such as public investment management, budget preparation, fiscal and financial reporting. It shows that a comprehensive approach that considers these linkages can improve efficiency and transparency in fiscal and debt management. Although the focus is on the central government’s debt obligations, the ideas can be extended to cover government-guaranteed loans and public sector debt in general.
Keywords:
public debt management; public debt transparency; debt reporting; fiscal transparency; external debt; project loans; public investment management; maturity status template; debt transparency; core loan term; IMF Library; loan disbursement advice; Government debt management; Loans; Debt service; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2018-19 Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries---Reform Proposals: Review Of The Financing Of The Fund’s Concessional Assistance And Debt Relief To Low-Income Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
,
Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
2018-19 Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries---Reform Proposals: Review Of The Financing Of The Fund’s Concessional Assistance And Debt Relief To Low-Income Member Countries
Keywords:
PP; arrangement; financial support; paragraph; PRGS requirement; PRSP preparation status report; PRGT self-sustainability; PRGT resource; market access criterion; Poverty reduction strategy; Natural disasters; Debt sustainability; Poverty reduction and development; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Republic of Yemen: 2013 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This staff report on the Republic of Yemen’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic development and policies. The macroeconomic situation stabilized in 2012, but the recovery remains fragile. After contracting by more than 12 percent in 2011, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.4 percent in 2012, reflecting an easing of supply bottlenecks, and utilization of part of idle capacity. On the other hand, oil production declined further, due to continued sabotage of the pipelines. Average inflation declined to 9.9 percent from 19.5 percent in 2011, reflecting the appreciation of the rial to its pre-crisis level, the moderation of international food prices, and the easing of supply shortages.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; Yemen; debt; Yemeni authorities; real GDP; exchange rate system; aid disbursement; inflation objective; address unemployment; Balance of payments statistics; Government finance statistics; Global; Middle East; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Yemen: 2008 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement and Supplement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Yemen
International Monetary Fund
Recent economic performance in Yemen has been mixed. A sharp decline in oil production, coupled with inflexible government expenditure and only marginal improvement in the tax-to-GDP ratio led to an overall fiscal deficit of 5.8 percent in 2007. Executive Directors have noted that Yemen’s non-oil GDP growth has been solid in recent years, and progress has been made on a number of structural reforms. Directors have welcomed the authorities’ commitment to reduce expenditure in the event that oil prices remain below the benchmark price in the 2009 budget.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; WEO oil price baseline; adjustment scenario; debt; deficit; oil; oil price; staff appraisal; private sector credit growth; staff projection; Oil prices; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Yemen: 2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Supplements; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Yemen
International Monetary Fund
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that despite recent progress in poverty reduction, Yemen remains far from achieving the Millennium Development Goals. Oil production has been declining since 2000, and in the absence of major discoveries, proven oil reserves could be depleted in some 10 years' time. Economic performance in 2006 was generally favorable, but was accompanied by an increase in inflation. Overall real GDP growth reached 4 percent in 2006, with a 6 percent non-oil growth offsetting an 8 percent decline in oil production.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Yemen; debt; price; inflation outlook; drive inflation; private sector import activity; Sta balance of payments statistics mission; net amount; UN Security Council resolution; Inflation; Balance of payments statistics; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Debt and Growth
Mr. Luca A Ricci
and
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
This paper assesses the non linear impact of external debt on growth using a large panel data set of 93 developing countries over 1969–98. Results are generally robust across different econometric methodologies, regression specifications, and different debt indicators. For a country with average indebtedness, doubling the debt ratio would reduce annual per capita growth by between half and a full percentage point. The differential in per capita growth between countries with external indebtedness (in net present value) below 100 percent of exports and above 300 percent of exports seems to be in excess of 2 percent per annum. For countries that are to benefit from debt reduction under the current HIPC initiative, per capita growth might increase by 1 percentage point, unless constrained by other macroeconomic and structural economic distortions. Our findings also suggest that the average impact of debt becomes negative at about 160–170 percent of exports or 35–40 percent of GDP. The marginal impact of debt starts being negative at about half of these values. High debt appears to reduce growth mainly by lowering the efficiency of investment rather than its volume.
Keywords:
WP; debt; net present value; GDP; spline; Growth; external debt; debt relief; HIPC initiative; debt indicator; debt variable; Laffer curve; debt stock; debt to export; debt dummy; debt-growth relationship; Exports; Debt burden; Fiscal stance; Debt service; Estimation techniques; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of ESAF-Supported Programs: Revisiting Some Methodological Issues
Ms. Susan M Schadler
,
Mr. Louis Dicks-Mireaux
, and
Mr. Mauro Mecagni
This paper examines whether ESAF-supported programs during 1986-91 had significant independent effects on growth, inflation and the external debt service ratio. Econometric estimates of the Generalized Evaluation Estimator (GEE) identify statistically significant beneficial effects on output growth and the debt service ratio but no effects on inflation. The robustness of these estimates is also examined. Diagnostic tests cast doubt on the applicability of the GEE framework to the ESAF-eligible countries, and the results obtained using it.
Keywords:
WP; debt service; dummy variable; growth rate; least squares; policy reaction function; sample estimate; Policy variable; Fund support; Fund-supported program; estimation result; policy instrument; regression estimate; Debt service ratios; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Nominal effective exchange rate; Southeast Asia; Pacific Islands; South Asia; Caribbean
Cover Financial Assistance from Arab Countries and Arab Regional Institutions
Financial Assistance from Arab Countries and Arab Regional Institutions
Mr. P. van den Boogaerde

Abstract

Arab financial assistance to developing - particularly Arab - countries rose sharply between 1973 and 1980 but fell gradually through the 1980s, owing mainly to weakening oil prices. As a percent of GNP, however, Arab contributions remain the largest among major donors. This paper surveys the volume and distribution of Arab financing from 1973 to 1989.

Keywords:
OP; IMF staff calculation; disbursement; recipient country; net disbursement; donor country; assistance flow; Loans; Outward remittances; Concessional external borrowing; Imports; Project loans; Middle East; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific; price-production strategy
Cover International Comparisons of Government Expenditure Revisited
International Comparisons of Government Expenditure Revisited
The Developing Countries 1975-86: Occa Paper No.69
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This chapter discusses the changes that have taken place in the underlying structural relationships determining government expenditures between 1975 and 1986. The paper describes the methodological problems in analyzing the determinants of government expenditure patterns, and the issues involved in making cross-country expenditure comparisons, and the problems confronting country economists in assessing a country's expenditure profile. The Tait-Heller study concluded that the international expenditure comparison (IEC) framework provided a “starting point” for analysis. In many respects, this conclusion would still appear valid; if anything, the issues associated with using the IEC indices have become more rather than less complex. Data limitations also pose a limiting factor on the usefulness of an analysis of the IEC indices of a country, and even more strongly suggest its use only as complementary to more detailed sectoral and economic analyses of expenditure profiles. The results for the developing countries in the European region are almost identical to those observed in Africa, with the key exception being an increased priority for expenditure on social security and welfare and a decline in the priority attached to education.

Keywords:
OP; app02tab16fn01; expenditure share; app02tab13fn01; comparison indices; aggregate expenditure category; expenditure equation; expenditure structure; Income; Total expenditures; Interest payments; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Europe; shape expenditure pattern; expenditure category; structure of a country
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Composition and Distribution of Financial Assistance From Arab Countries and Arab Regional Institutions
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines the volume and distribution of concessional and nonconcessional financial flows from Arab countries, and aid agencies, and regional institutions to developing countries. Arab financial assistance increased very rapidly from 1973 to 1980 in line with the rapid growth in oil revenues. Essentially because of the softer oil market, this trend was reversed in the 1980s. Nonetheless, the Arab contributions as a share of GNPs remain by far the most generous among the major donor groups. Arab recipient countries received nearly 62 percent of total Arab financial assistance. Together with large flows of workers’ remittances, this assistance accelerated their economic development beyond what would have been otherwise possible.
Keywords:
WP; balance of payments; economic development; gross national product; recipient country; net disbursement; net importer; debtor country; outstanding balance; donor country; Loans; Concessional external borrowing; Project loans; Imports; Balance of payments assistance; Middle East; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; Europe