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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

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Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
A Framework for Monitoring of and Reporting for External Project Loans in Developing Countries
Emre Balibek
,
Guy T Anderson
, and
Kieran McDonald
To produce timely and accurate debt reports at the central government level, it is essential to have a sound legal, administrative, and operational framework in place for debt data compilation, reconciliation, accounting, monitoring, and reporting. This note focuses on the arrangements for external project-based debt, which present distinctive challenges in debt reporting particularly in low-income and developing countries. The discussion complements existing literature and guidance on debt transparency by focusing on stages prior to the production of debt reports. The note also identifies the links between the management of project loans and other public financial management (PFM) processes, such as public investment management, budget preparation, fiscal and financial reporting. It shows that a comprehensive approach that considers these linkages can improve efficiency and transparency in fiscal and debt management. Although the focus is on the central government’s debt obligations, the ideas can be extended to cover government-guaranteed loans and public sector debt in general.
Keywords:
public debt management; public debt transparency; debt reporting; fiscal transparency; external debt; project loans; public investment management; maturity status template; debt transparency; core loan term; IMF Library; loan disbursement advice; Government debt management; Loans; Debt service; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Staff Guidance Note on The Implementation of The IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS)
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This note provides operational advice and information to help staff implement the IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS) approved by the Executive Board on March 9, 2022. Topics covered include (i) the new IMF FCS classification methodology, which is aligned with that of the World Bank; (ii) the preparation of Country Engagement Strategies (CES) that will be rolled out across FCS to ensure that Fund engagement is appropriately tailored to country-specific manifestations of fragility and/or conflict; (iii) advice on tailoring the thematic focus of Article IV consultations and Fund analytics to FCS, as well as on the prioritization, design, and implementation of capacity development (CD) projects in fragile contexts; (iv) guidance on making full use of the flexibilities of the lending toolkit; (v) guidance on engaging in specific FCS situations, including building accountable institutions to exit fragility, cases of rising fragility risks, active conflict, post-conflict, and addressing the impact of external shocks and spillovers; and (v) strengthening partnerships with humanitarian, development, and peace actors, in accordance with the Fund’s mandate. Dedicated annexes provide additional information on the CES process, addressing good governance in FCS, program design, and country examples of Fund engagement in FCS.
Keywords:
fragility; conflict; fragile and conflict-affected states; political economy; inclusive growth; macroeconomic policy; absorptive capacity; balance of payments; country engagement strategies; capacity development; surveillance; partnerships; governance; FCS staff development; FCS strategy; FCS list; FCS classification; FCS circumstances; Balance of payments need; Capacity utilization; Climate change; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries
Ali Compaoré
,
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
, and
Sandrine Sourouema
While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper therefore investigates whether rising conflict and political instability globally over the past several decades led to increased occurrence of banking crises in developing countries. The paper provides strong evidence that conflicts and political instability are indeed associated with higher probability of systemic banking crises. Unsurprisingly, the duration of a conflict is positively associated with rising probability of a banking crisis. Interestingly, the paper also finds that conflicts and political instability in one country can have negative spillover effects on neighboring countries’ banking systems. The paper provides evidence that the primary channel of transmission is the occurrence of fiscal crises following a conflict or political instability.
Keywords:
WP; banking crisis; fiscal crisis; government crisis; state fragility index; conflict; political instability; banking crises; fiscal crises; liquidity shortage; countries matter; banking turmoil; economic growth; banking liquidity shortage; occurrence of a banking crisis; systemic banking crisis; terms of trade; experiencing banking crisis; Commercial banks; Systemic crises; Terms of trade; Logit models; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; banking crises in year; occurrence of banking crisis; start of a banking crisis
Cover Policy Papers
2018-19 Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries---Reform Proposals: Review Of The Financing Of The Fund’s Concessional Assistance And Debt Relief To Low-Income Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
,
Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
2018-19 Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries---Reform Proposals: Review Of The Financing Of The Fund’s Concessional Assistance And Debt Relief To Low-Income Member Countries
Keywords:
PP; arrangement; financial support; paragraph; PRGS requirement; PRSP preparation status report; PRGT self-sustainability; PRGT resource; market access criterion; Poverty reduction strategy; Natural disasters; Debt sustainability; Poverty reduction and development; Loans; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges
International Monetary Fund
The Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) have had diverging trajectories over the past year and face an uncertain outlook.1 Improvements in the European economy, lower oil prices, and some progress on the policy front have provided tailwinds to growth, which is expected to pick up significantly in Egypt and Morocco. At the same time, unemployment remains high. Moreover, several of the ACTs have also suffered from intensifying and spreading conflicts that cause widespread human suffering and sizeable economic challenges. Libya and Yemen are directly affected, while spillovers from these conflicts and the civil wars in Iraq and Syria weigh on Jordan and Tunisia, as well as other countries in the region (e.g., Lebanon, Djibouti), Turkey and Europe. These spillovers come most prominently in the form of large refugee flows, deteriorating security, and pressures on economic infrastructures and labor markets. All these factors add urgency to the need in the Arab countries to strengthen economic resilience and address long-standing sources of inequity and exclusion. Coordinated and scaled-up support from the international community will be also critical in stabilizing conditions in the region, addressing the refugee crisis, and securing a more promising economic future for the ACTs in this challenging environment.
Keywords:
PP; government; deficit; financing; country; General government balance; budget deficit; job creation; exchange rate; labor market; economic activity; excl. grant; GDP growth; Current account deficits; Inflation; Government debt management; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Middle East Transitions: A Long, Hard Road
Shahid Yusuf
Since the onset of the Arab Spring, economic uncertainty in Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen (Arab Countries in Transition, ACTs) has slowed already sluggish growth; worsened unemployment, particularly of youth; undermined business confidence, affected tourist arrivals, and depressed domestic and foreign direct investment. Furthermore, political and social tensions have constrained reform efforts. Assessing policy options as presented in the voluminous literature on the Arab Spring and based on cross-country experience, this paper concludes that sustainable and inclusive growth calls for a two pronged approach: short term measures that revive growth momentum and partially allay popular concerns; complemented with efforts to adjust the public’s expectations and prepare the ground for structural reforms that will deliver the desired longer tem performance.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; private sector; export-led growth; Mena country; regime change; unemployment rate; economic transition; growth; youth unemployment; institutions; education; social safety nets; SMEs; SEZs; transaction costs; enterprise reform; anchor firm; density entry rate; on-the-job training; free trade zone; natural resource; Exports; Employment; Public sector; Manufacturing; East Asia; Global; Eastern Europe; Middle East; North Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges
International Monetary Fund
In spite of deepening and spreading conflicts in the region, as well as, in many cases, a challenging internal socio-political environment, the Arab Countries in Transition (Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen) have broadly maintained macroeconomic stability. At the same time, however, their economies are not delivering the growth rates needed for a meaningful reduction in unemployment, in particular for the youth and women. Notwithstanding diversity of conditions, countries should quickly advance structural reforms to foster higher and more inclusive growth, and continue to strengthen fiscal and external buffers to maintain stability amid heightened uncertainty. Coordinated support from the international community will be crucial in the form of financing, improved trade access, and capacity building assistance.
Keywords:
PP; current account; monetary policy; excl. grant; exchange rate; economic activity; labor market; private sector; government balance; Current account deficits; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Middle East; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are Banks Really Lazy? Evidence from Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Simon T Gray
,
Mr. Philippe D Karam
, and
Ms. Rima A Turk
We investigate whether low loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios and high levels of reserve balances at the central bank (or holdings of government securities) are a reflection of policy-driven factors compared to commonly cited reasons of reluctance to lend or sometimes weak investment demand in uncertain environments. We examine changes to central bank (CB) balance sheet structures as well as commercial banks’ flow of funds over the period 2007–2012. First, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) CBs play an active role in view of their size that is very large with respect to their economies compared to CBs in advanced economies. Second, under exchange rate targeting, most MENA CB balance sheets are asset-driven, holding foreign exchange (FX) reserves to support the exchange rate policy and resulting in lower loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios in the case of unsterilized increases in FX. Third, CB policy decisions seem to be accompanied by an increase in commercial bank reserve money balances, with ensuing reduction in the LTD. Finally, if governments meet their financing needs from the banking system—whether from commercial banks or by monetary financing—commercial bank balance sheets will tend to expand, resulting in lower LTD ratios. Our analysis suggests that government and CB actions may also drive the demand for and supply of credit, which are traditionally attributed to the behavior of banks and non-financial corporates and households only. The findings offer a different interpretation of changes in CB and banks’ balance sheets, with direct implications for LTD, calling to exercise caution in recommending policy action which aim at propping up LTD to ‘appropriate’ levels in an effort to reinvigorate credit following a downturn.
Keywords:
WP; Ltd ratio; balance sheet structure; CB action; asset purchase; CB financing; FX reserve; MENA; central banks; banks; credit; a number of AE CBs; CB bill; CB asset; credit growth; Commercial banks; Financial statements; Bank credit; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Toward New Horizons: Arab Economic Transformation amid Political Transition
Mr. Harald Finger
and
Ms. Daniela Gressani

The changing political landscape in the Arab world has created opportunities for economic transformation by tackling long-standing economic issues. Nevertheless, three years after the onset of political transition, implementing necessary economic policies has proven to be challenging. This paper lays out key elements of economic policy reform for Arab countries in transition.

Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; labor market; private sector; central bank; job creation; monetary policy; Exchange rate flexibility; Employment; Global; North Africa; East Asia; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges - Deauville Partnership Ministerial Meeting
International Monetary Fund
In an environment of heightened socio-economic tensions, regional insecurity, and strained public finances, the Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) 1 face the difficult task of delivering on the expectations for jobs and growth. Despite patchy improvements in some countries, economic growth remains subdued, private investment is weak, and external and fiscal buffers are running low. Fostering social cohesion and avoiding a downward spiral of economic and political malaise calls for urgent implementation of economic reforms and coordinated support from the international community.
Keywords:
PP; excl. grant; exchange rate; job creation; monetary policy; foreign exchange; General government balance; financial support; government balance; reform program; grant financing; financing needs; transition countries' financing gap; credit growth; Current account deficits; Government debt management; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Middle East; Deauville partnership ministerial meeting; countries in transition; title page; key challenge; North Africa; East Africa