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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
,
Davide Lombardo
,
Risto Herrala
,
Ms. Priscilla Toffano
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
, and
Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Keywords:
SDN; conflict country; refugee crisis; central bank; economic activity; country authorities; Middle East and North Africa; conflicts; refugees; macroeconomic policy; economic spillovers; post-conflict reconstruction; international community; MENA region; MENA country; physical capital; financial support; IMF staff calculation; growth potential; MENA conflict country; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Inflation; Middle East; North Africa; Global; East Africa; Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
Avoiding the New Mediocre: Raising Long-Term Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Ms. Pritha Mitra
,
Amr Hosny
,
Gohar Minasyan
,
Mr. Mark Fischer
, and
Gohar Abajyan
Raising the Middle East and Central Asia’s long-term growth prospects is critical for meeting the region's pressing need for jobs and higher living standards.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; physical capital; GCC MENAP; exporter; oil exporter; oil importer; physical capital accumulation; foreign direct investment; physical capital growth; employment growth; Productivity; Oil; Employment; Capital accumulation; Oil prices; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Is the Glass Half Empty Or Half Full?: Issues in Managing Water Challenges and Policy Instruments
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
,
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
Mrs. Nujin Suphaphiphat
,
Mr. Andrew J Swiston
,
Mr. Robert Tchaidze
,
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
,
Valentina Flamini
,
Ms. Laure Redifer
, and
Mr. Harald Finger
This paper examines water challenges, a growing global concern with adverse economic and social consequences, and discusses economic policy instruments. Water subsidies provided through public utilities are estimated at about $456 billion or 0.6 percent of global GDP in 2012. The paper suggests that getting economic incentives right, notably by reforming water pricing, can go a long way towards encouraging more efficient water use and supporting needed investment, while enabling policies that protect the poor. It also discusses pricing reform options and emphasizes an integrated and holistic approach to manage water, going beyond the water sector itself. The IMF can play a helpful role in ensuring that macroeconomic policies are conducive to sound water management.
Keywords:
SDN; water use; water resource; country water price subsidy; cost recovery; demand management; natural resource; water withdrawal; Water; subsidies; externalities; public utilities; pricing reform; Water resources; Infrastructure; Agricultural sector; Water subsidies; Global; South Asia; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Republic of Yemen: 2013 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This staff report on the Republic of Yemen’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic development and policies. The macroeconomic situation stabilized in 2012, but the recovery remains fragile. After contracting by more than 12 percent in 2011, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.4 percent in 2012, reflecting an easing of supply bottlenecks, and utilization of part of idle capacity. On the other hand, oil production declined further, due to continued sabotage of the pipelines. Average inflation declined to 9.9 percent from 19.5 percent in 2011, reflecting the appreciation of the rial to its pre-crisis level, the moderation of international food prices, and the easing of supply shortages.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; Yemen; debt; Yemeni authorities; real GDP; exchange rate system; aid disbursement; inflation objective; address unemployment; Balance of payments statistics; Government finance statistics; Global; Middle East; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.
Keywords:
WP; oil price; price; revenue; Oil producing countries; fiscal policy; oil revenue; oil GDP; fiscal policy in OPCs; short-term fiscal policy stance; term perspective; fiscal policy position; fiscal policy shock; fiscal policy Procyclicality; fiscal policy change; investment expenditure; fiscal policy stance; low income OPCs; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Personal income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Are the Potential Economic Benefits of Enlarging the Gulf Cooperation Council?
Mr. Selim A Elekdag
,
Mr. Saade Chami
, and
Mr. Ivan Tchakarov
This paper uses a variant of the IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) to estimate the macroeconomic effects of Yemen's full accession into the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). After calibrating the model to Yemen and the GCC countries, several simulations were carried out to estimate the potential impact of economic integration on both. The paper draws two fundamental conclusions. First, further steps in regional integration would enhance competition and produce large economic benefits for both Yemen and the GCC countries. In particular, we show that in some cases economic integration could increase GDP in Yemen by as much as 18 percent and in the GCC by as much as 20 percent over the long run. Second, even if market structures do not improve substantially, GCC enlargement can still generate substantial spillover gains with consumption increasing by up to 7 percent in Yemen and 8 percent in the GCC, respectively.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; GCC; labor market; regional integration; competition; IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM); goods market; Yemeni product markets; GCC enlargement; GCC member; GCC Labor; GCC block; market power; Labor markets; Consumption; Real exchange rates; Commodity markets; Global
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The Thirty-Sixth Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the IMF, as well as selected documents relevant to the current activities of the Fund.

Keywords:
SELD; sc; fund; decisions of the executive board; capital transfer; allocations of special drawing rights; decision No. 1238; Japanese yen; Currencies; Personal income; Credit; Multiple currency practices; Loans; Global; Africa; amount of SDR; Reserve assets; Income
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Volume contains decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the IMF, as well as selected documents relating to current activities of the Fund.

Keywords:
SELD; decisions of the executive board; allocations of special drawing rights; capital transfer; decision No. 1238; selected document; Currencies; Personal income; Credit; Multiple currency practices; Loans; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Experiences with Monetary Integration and Lessons for Korean Unification
Goohoon Kwon
This paper discusses the timing of monetary integration and supporting economic policies during a rapid and largely uncontrolled process of Korean unification. The paper concludes that the transitory use of a separate currency in each region and supporting economic policies would help limit the initial costs of unification although the extent of the eventual cost reduction would depend critically on the success of ensuing economic reforms in the North during the transition. Maintaining the competitiveness of the northern economy would need to be a primary policy objective in the case of an early introduction of a common currency.
Keywords:
WP; country; currency; government; enterprise; economy; monetary unit; common currency; currency conversion; currency system; market economy; trade monopoly; Currencies; Wages; Monetary unions; Exchange rates; Income; Baltics
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This volume contains decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the IMF, as well as selected documents relating to current activities of the Fund.

Keywords:
SELD; selected document; decisions of the executive board; allocations of special drawing rights; No. 6-8; Japanese yen; Currencies; Multiple currency practices; Personal income; Reserve assets; Loans; Global; Africa; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; United Nations General Assembly 377; capital transfer; Imports; Credit