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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17
Majdi Debbich
This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using estimated nightlights elasticities on a sample of 72 countries for real GDP and 28 countries for oil GDP over 6 years, I derive oil and non-oil GDP growth for Yemen. I show that real GDP contracted by a cumulative 24 percent over 2015-17 against 50 percent according to official figures. I also find that the impact of the conflict has been geographically uneven with economic activity contracting more in some governorates than in others.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; radiant heat; conflict; economic growth; nighttime lights; nightlights data; nightlights intensity; producing governorate; oil production data; data remains; growth in Yemen; VIIRS data; satellite data; real GDP equation; Oil; Oil production; Natural gas sector; Economic recession; Oil sector; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Economic Diversification in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries
International Monetary Fund
countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
Keywords:
PP; exporting; economy; GDP; diversification; economic diversification; labor market; public spending; IMF staff estimate; exchange rate; job creation; oil price; Oil prices; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Public sector; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Avoiding the New Mediocre: Raising Long-Term Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Ms. Pritha Mitra
,
Amr Hosny
,
Gohar Minasyan
,
Mr. Mark Fischer
, and
Gohar Abajyan
Raising the Middle East and Central Asia’s long-term growth prospects is critical for meeting the region's pressing need for jobs and higher living standards.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; physical capital; GCC MENAP; exporter; oil exporter; oil importer; physical capital accumulation; foreign direct investment; physical capital growth; employment growth; Productivity; Oil; Employment; Capital accumulation; Oil prices; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa: Recent Progress and Challenges Ahead
Mr. Carlo A Sdralevich
,
Miss Randa Sab
,
Mr. Younes Zouhar
, and
Ms. Giorgia Albertin
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; subsidy reform; exchange rate; fuel price; price increase; price subsidy; energy subsidy; food subsidy; fuel subsidy; Energy subsidies; Fuel prices; Inflation; Oil prices; Social assistance spending; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; oil importer; oil exporter; reform outcome; reforms in the Middle East; Oil
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Primeron Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries
Mr. Paulo A Medas
and
Ms. Daria V Zakharova
This paper proposes an integrated approach to fiscal policy analysis in oil producing countries (OPCs) geared towards addressing their unique and complex policy challenges. First, an accurate assessment of the fiscal stance in OPCs can be obscured by large and volatile oil revenue flows. Second, uncertain and volatile oil revenue flows can complicate the management of macroeconomic policies in these countries. Third, given the exhaustibility of oil reserves, OPCs need to address longer-term sustainability and intergenerational equity issues. The use of non-oil fiscal indicators, stress tests, medium-term frameworks, and permanent oil income models can greatly aid in addressing these challenges.
Keywords:
WP; oil revenue; oil price; fiscal policy analysis; medium term; annual budget; economic growth; policy response; fiscal policy; oil producing countries; resource revenue; expenditure quality; oil price volatility; oil GDP; oil price shock; oil revenue uncertainty; B. managing oil revenue volatility; expenditure volatility; WEO oil price; rate of return; revenue performance; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Yemen: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; net; Yemen; deposit; Yemen Gulf bank; commercial bank bank deposit; central bank of Yemen; factor income; return on equity; capital goods; pension fund deposit; return on assets; output share; quasi money deposit; fund staff estimate; public enterprise deposit; Oil; Commercial banks; Bank deposits; Imports; Oil exports; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies: Recent Developments and Reform Strategies
Mr. David Coady
,
Mr. Taimur Baig
,
Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro
, and
Mr. Amine Mati
The paper reviews recent developments in the pass-through of international to domestic petroleum product prices, in the different fuel pricing regimes, and in fuel subsidies in a range of emerging market and developing economies. The main finding of the paper is the limited price pass-through in many countries and the consequent increase in fuel subsidies. The paper proposes that key elements of a successful strategy to contain subsidies should comprise: making subsidies explicit; making pricing mechanisms more robust; combining reductions in subsidies with measures to protect the poorest; using the resulting savings well, and transparency and consultation.
Keywords:
WP; price; country; government; fuel price; fiscal policy; petroleum; subsidies; price pass-through; liberalized price regime; petroleum product price; kerosene price; administered import price; gasoline pricing mechanisms price; gasoline price; oil price pass-through; refinery price; price signal; price liberalization; price stabilization scheme; Fuel prices; Oil prices; Inflation; Energy subsidies; Oil; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Yemen: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; foreign currency; enterprise; central bank of Yemen; oil company profits; net exposure; capital goods; core consumer price index; Oil; Commercial banks; Bank deposits; Currencies; Public enterprises; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Yemen: Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Yemen slowed in 2004 owing to a sharp contraction in the oil sector. Oil production declined by 5.9 percent, reflecting diminishing recovery from aging large oil fields as well as the absence of significant new discoveries. Some progress has been made in structural reforms. The revised General Sales Tax law submitted to parliament in late 2004 included several improvements designed to protect the integrity and simplicity of this tax.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; government; GDP; U.S. dollar; Yemeni authorities; fuel price subsidy; appreciation to the staff; government's attention; liquefied petroleum gas price; Oil; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Middle East
Cover Yemen in the 1990s
Yemen in the 1990s
From Unification to Economic Reform
Ms. Nada Choueiri
,
Mr. Klaus-Stefan Enders
,
Mr. Yuri V Sobolev
,
Mr. Jan Walliser
, and
Mr. Sherwyn Williams

Abstract

The 1990s saw the unification of the two Yemens into one nation and a burgeoning of the country's oil sector. This paper examines the structural changes in the Yemeni economy brought about by these and other developments and identifies the reforms needed to move the country toward rapid and sustainable growth, effectively manage its oil wealth, and reduce the widespread poverty. The paper addresses the issue of poverty reduction by providing background and drawing lessons from Yemen's adjustment experience to date.

Keywords:
OP; government; Yemen; policy; pins government policy; economic reform program; adjustment experience; oil sector development; employee pension plan; benefit rule; Oil; Oil prices; Commercial banks; Middle East; East Africa; North Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific