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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

This article discusses different aspects and tables in the seventh Supplement of Balance of Payments Statistics. A balance of payments statement can be broadly described as the record of an economy's international economic transactions, that is, of the goods and services that an economy has received from, and provided to, the rest of the world, and of changes in the economy's claims on and liabilities to the rest of the world. The report highlights that for recent years the global current account figures contain a large discrepancy that implies either that surpluses are under-recorded, or deficits are over-recorded, or some combination of the two. The inconsistencies that give rise to the recorded current account asymmetry stem mainly from deficiencies in the balance of payments statements of individual countries covered in the statistics. The growth in the discrepancy is most noticeable for the category ‘other goods, services, and income’. The problem is still to be resolved, and therefore, considerable caution should be exercised when interpreting the statistics for the most recent years.

International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

This paper presents the Supplement on international reserves, the sixth in the series of supplements to International Financial Statistics (IFS) that comprises textual material commencing with an historical perspective of international reserves. This is followed by a discussion on the methodology covering the concepts underlying the reserves data in IFS: the data collection and presentation procedures; the related data in the money and banking, and balance-of-payments sections in IFS; and a summary of the national concepts of reserves. Statistics on international reserves are important indicators of the external economic performance of countries. A country's holdings of international reserves represent its ability to meet balance of payments needs through official financial settlements. The establishment of the IMF led to the creation of a reserve asset in the form of a gold tranche position reflecting a member's subscription to the IMF in gold. To the extent that the IMF made use of a member's currency in drawings of other countries, a creation of new reserves was involved.

Mr. Mohsin S. Khan
and
Mr. Morris Goldstein

Abstract

One of the more important yet puzzling aspects of the recent global stagflation has been the rather surprising resiliency of growth rates of real income in non-oil developing countries during the 1973-80 period in the face of the marked slowdown of corresponding growth rates in the industrial world. The primary purpose of this paper is to shed some light on this phenomenon by examining the relationship between the rate of economic growth in the non-oil developing countries and that in the industrial countries over the past decade or so.

Mr. Ulrich Baumgartner
,
Mr. G. G. Johnson
,
K. Burke Dillon
,
R. C. Williams
,
Mr. Peter M Keller
,
Maria Tyler
,
Bahram Nowzad
,
Mr. G. Russell Kincaid
, and
Mr. Tomás Reichmann

Abstract

The external indebtedness of non-oil developing countries has been of growing concern in recent years. Several factors have brought the debt issue to the forefront of the problems facing a number of countries, including the rapid rise in extenal debt in the recent past, changes in the composition of debt (toward a greater proportion owed to commercial banks) and the attendant deterioration in the terms of debt, and the rise in debt service resulting from these developments.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper analyzes the implications of credit policies for output and growth and how they relate to the development of the current account and overall balance of payments. The framework chosen for the analysis is one in which the availability of financing is a direct and major determinant of current and future production. The paper identifies three channels through which credit policies can affect production in the economy. The principal conclusions are that limiting the overall level of credit is not a panacea for balance of payments problems; considerations regarding the distribution and the use of credit are important; in the absence of distortions, the current account objectives are best served by permitting credit expansion and investment to take place in the sector with the highest productivity, independent of whether this sector produces traded goods or nontraded goods; and tight credit policies can endanger the current account objectives when prevailing distortions lead to a “crowding out” of productive uses of credit.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
In this paper it is argued that in a system of widespread managed floating, as in a par value system with occasional floating, the problem of asymmetry of adjustment between the issuers of the principal intervention currencies and other countries and the problem of ensuring an effective international management of reserves remain to be solved. If the latter problem is less acute under a floating system, the former problem is potentially more acute than under par values. Although widespread floating would appear to offer no obstacle to the operation of a substitution account, its effect on the acceptability of asset settlement is debatable and it would add considerably to the difficulties of organizing multicurrency intervention. If politically acceptable, a system of guided intervention oriented to an established system of normal exchange rate zones would probably be superior to any other arrangement under floating for the purpose of promoting symmetry in adjustment, while permitting an adequate degree of exchange rate management and avoiding the anomaly of mutually offsetting intervention.
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings