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Middle East and Central Asia > Yemen, Republic of

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Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
A Framework for Monitoring of and Reporting for External Project Loans in Developing Countries
Emre Balibek
,
Guy T Anderson
, and
Kieran McDonald
To produce timely and accurate debt reports at the central government level, it is essential to have a sound legal, administrative, and operational framework in place for debt data compilation, reconciliation, accounting, monitoring, and reporting. This note focuses on the arrangements for external project-based debt, which present distinctive challenges in debt reporting particularly in low-income and developing countries. The discussion complements existing literature and guidance on debt transparency by focusing on stages prior to the production of debt reports. The note also identifies the links between the management of project loans and other public financial management (PFM) processes, such as public investment management, budget preparation, fiscal and financial reporting. It shows that a comprehensive approach that considers these linkages can improve efficiency and transparency in fiscal and debt management. Although the focus is on the central government’s debt obligations, the ideas can be extended to cover government-guaranteed loans and public sector debt in general.
Keywords:
public debt management; public debt transparency; debt reporting; fiscal transparency; external debt; project loans; public investment management; maturity status template; debt transparency; core loan term; IMF Library; loan disbursement advice; Government debt management; Loans; Debt service; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Staff Guidance Note on The Implementation of The IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS)
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This note provides operational advice and information to help staff implement the IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS) approved by the Executive Board on March 9, 2022. Topics covered include (i) the new IMF FCS classification methodology, which is aligned with that of the World Bank; (ii) the preparation of Country Engagement Strategies (CES) that will be rolled out across FCS to ensure that Fund engagement is appropriately tailored to country-specific manifestations of fragility and/or conflict; (iii) advice on tailoring the thematic focus of Article IV consultations and Fund analytics to FCS, as well as on the prioritization, design, and implementation of capacity development (CD) projects in fragile contexts; (iv) guidance on making full use of the flexibilities of the lending toolkit; (v) guidance on engaging in specific FCS situations, including building accountable institutions to exit fragility, cases of rising fragility risks, active conflict, post-conflict, and addressing the impact of external shocks and spillovers; and (v) strengthening partnerships with humanitarian, development, and peace actors, in accordance with the Fund’s mandate. Dedicated annexes provide additional information on the CES process, addressing good governance in FCS, program design, and country examples of Fund engagement in FCS.
Keywords:
fragility; conflict; fragile and conflict-affected states; political economy; inclusive growth; macroeconomic policy; absorptive capacity; balance of payments; country engagement strategies; capacity development; surveillance; partnerships; governance; FCS staff development; FCS strategy; FCS list; FCS classification; FCS circumstances; Balance of payments need; Capacity utilization; Climate change; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries
Ali Compaoré
,
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
, and
Sandrine Sourouema
While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper therefore investigates whether rising conflict and political instability globally over the past several decades led to increased occurrence of banking crises in developing countries. The paper provides strong evidence that conflicts and political instability are indeed associated with higher probability of systemic banking crises. Unsurprisingly, the duration of a conflict is positively associated with rising probability of a banking crisis. Interestingly, the paper also finds that conflicts and political instability in one country can have negative spillover effects on neighboring countries’ banking systems. The paper provides evidence that the primary channel of transmission is the occurrence of fiscal crises following a conflict or political instability.
Keywords:
WP; banking crisis; fiscal crisis; government crisis; state fragility index; conflict; political instability; banking crises; fiscal crises; liquidity shortage; countries matter; banking turmoil; economic growth; banking liquidity shortage; occurrence of a banking crisis; systemic banking crisis; terms of trade; experiencing banking crisis; Commercial banks; Systemic crises; Terms of trade; Logit models; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; banking crises in year; occurrence of banking crisis; start of a banking crisis
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17
Majdi Debbich
This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using estimated nightlights elasticities on a sample of 72 countries for real GDP and 28 countries for oil GDP over 6 years, I derive oil and non-oil GDP growth for Yemen. I show that real GDP contracted by a cumulative 24 percent over 2015-17 against 50 percent according to official figures. I also find that the impact of the conflict has been geographically uneven with economic activity contracting more in some governorates than in others.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; radiant heat; conflict; economic growth; nighttime lights; nightlights data; nightlights intensity; producing governorate; oil production data; data remains; growth in Yemen; VIIRS data; satellite data; real GDP equation; Oil; Oil production; Natural gas sector; Economic recession; Oil sector; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Policy Papers
2018-19 Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries---Reform Proposals: Review Of The Financing Of The Fund’s Concessional Assistance And Debt Relief To Low-Income Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
,
Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
2018-19 Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries---Reform Proposals: Review Of The Financing Of The Fund’s Concessional Assistance And Debt Relief To Low-Income Member Countries
Keywords:
PP; arrangement; financial support; paragraph; PRGS requirement; PRSP preparation status report; PRGT self-sustainability; PRGT resource; market access criterion; Poverty reduction strategy; Natural disasters; Debt sustainability; Poverty reduction and development; Loans; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
,
Davide Lombardo
,
Risto Herrala
,
Ms. Priscilla Toffano
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
, and
Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Keywords:
SDN; conflict country; refugee crisis; central bank; economic activity; country authorities; Middle East and North Africa; conflicts; refugees; macroeconomic policy; economic spillovers; post-conflict reconstruction; international community; MENA region; MENA country; physical capital; financial support; IMF staff calculation; growth potential; MENA conflict country; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Inflation; Middle East; North Africa; Global; East Africa; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Economic Diversification in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries
International Monetary Fund
countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
Keywords:
PP; exporting; economy; GDP; diversification; economic diversification; labor market; public spending; IMF staff estimate; exchange rate; job creation; oil price; Oil prices; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Public sector; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Avoiding the New Mediocre: Raising Long-Term Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Ms. Pritha Mitra
,
Amr Hosny
,
Gohar Minasyan
,
Mr. Mark Fischer
, and
Gohar Abajyan
Raising the Middle East and Central Asia’s long-term growth prospects is critical for meeting the region's pressing need for jobs and higher living standards.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; physical capital; GCC MENAP; exporter; oil exporter; oil importer; physical capital accumulation; foreign direct investment; physical capital growth; employment growth; Productivity; Oil; Employment; Capital accumulation; Oil prices; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges
International Monetary Fund
The Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) have had diverging trajectories over the past year and face an uncertain outlook.1 Improvements in the European economy, lower oil prices, and some progress on the policy front have provided tailwinds to growth, which is expected to pick up significantly in Egypt and Morocco. At the same time, unemployment remains high. Moreover, several of the ACTs have also suffered from intensifying and spreading conflicts that cause widespread human suffering and sizeable economic challenges. Libya and Yemen are directly affected, while spillovers from these conflicts and the civil wars in Iraq and Syria weigh on Jordan and Tunisia, as well as other countries in the region (e.g., Lebanon, Djibouti), Turkey and Europe. These spillovers come most prominently in the form of large refugee flows, deteriorating security, and pressures on economic infrastructures and labor markets. All these factors add urgency to the need in the Arab countries to strengthen economic resilience and address long-standing sources of inequity and exclusion. Coordinated and scaled-up support from the international community will be also critical in stabilizing conditions in the region, addressing the refugee crisis, and securing a more promising economic future for the ACTs in this challenging environment.
Keywords:
PP; government; deficit; financing; country; General government balance; budget deficit; job creation; exchange rate; labor market; economic activity; excl. grant; GDP growth; Current account deficits; Inflation; Government debt management; Oil prices; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Is the Glass Half Empty Or Half Full?: Issues in Managing Water Challenges and Policy Instruments
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
,
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
Mrs. Nujin Suphaphiphat
,
Mr. Andrew J Swiston
,
Mr. Robert Tchaidze
,
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
,
Valentina Flamini
,
Ms. Laure Redifer
, and
Mr. Harald Finger
This paper examines water challenges, a growing global concern with adverse economic and social consequences, and discusses economic policy instruments. Water subsidies provided through public utilities are estimated at about $456 billion or 0.6 percent of global GDP in 2012. The paper suggests that getting economic incentives right, notably by reforming water pricing, can go a long way towards encouraging more efficient water use and supporting needed investment, while enabling policies that protect the poor. It also discusses pricing reform options and emphasizes an integrated and holistic approach to manage water, going beyond the water sector itself. The IMF can play a helpful role in ensuring that macroeconomic policies are conducive to sound water management.
Keywords:
SDN; water use; water resource; country water price subsidy; cost recovery; demand management; natural resource; water withdrawal; Water; subsidies; externalities; public utilities; pricing reform; Water resources; Infrastructure; Agricultural sector; Water subsidies; Global; South Asia; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa