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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, May 2007, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, May 2007, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Strong economic performance across the Middle East and Central Asia is examined against the background of high prices for energy and other commodities. Common economic trends are presented, while prospects and policies are reviewed for the coming year in light of the global economic environment. This latest REO includes boxes treating specific regional topics, such as financial sector reforms and integration in Maghreb countries; economic developments in oil-exporting countries in response to changes in petroleum prices; and the growth boom in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Keywords:
REO; country; price; government; quote; oil price; Brent crude; commodity price; debt ratio; nominal exchange rate; emerging market country; Oil prices; Oil; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; gas and mining taxes; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Potential vs. Tax Effort: A Cross-Country Analysis of Armenia's Stubbornly Low Tax Collection
Mr. David A. Grigorian
and
Mr. Hamid R Davoodi
Despite recording double digit growth since 2000, Armenia's tax-to-GDP ratio has been fairly stable at about 14½ percent. This paper catalogues a range of factors that may account for Armenia's stubbornly for tax collection by benchmarking Armenia's tax-to-GDP against some comparator countries and conducting an extensive econometric study of the main determinants of tax collection. We find empirical support for the hypothesis that the persistence of Armenia's low tax-GDP ratio can be traced to persistence of weak institutions and a large shadow economy. The gap between the potential and actual tax collection in Armenia could be as high as 6½ percent of GDP. We conclude with some policy recommendations that, if adopted, can boost revenue buoyancy.
Keywords:
WP; Armenia; tax revenue; tax potential; tax collection; institutions; shadow economy; tax-to-GDP ratio; CIS country; tax effort; revenue buoyancy; VAT collection; tax performance; tax morale; small share; Income and capital gains taxes; Tax administration core functions; Informal economy; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Russian Federation: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Russia’s large oil and gas reserves play a key role in its economic development. As with many other large oil exporters, Russia’s energy wealth is also posing numerous challenges to macroeconomic management. Although fiscal policy has saved a large part of the oil windfall in the Oil Stabilization Fund (OSF), this has not been guided by a consistent long-term framework. The framework is illustrated with numerical simulations of different fiscal spending rules that are consistent with sustainable paths of consumption out of oil and gas wealth over time.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FSU country; CIS country; oil revenue; oil price; consumption rule; w Russia; Oil prices; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Exports; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; oil revenue; net export; enrollment ratio; time deposit; net enrollment ratio; net credit; net tax; credit to government; national bank of Kazakhstan; Nontax revenue; Oil; Agricultural commodities; gas and mining taxes; Natural gas sector; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the sources of recent growth in Tajikistan. It concludes that economic growth has been mainly driven by the services sector and a surge in remittances that have been mainly used for private consumption and small-scale private investment. The paper summarizes the recently introduced revisions to the Tax Code, which are an evolutionary step in simplifying the tax system and setting the base for better revenue administration. It also examines the likely impact on households of increasing electricity prices to cost-recovery levels.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Tajikistan; wage; debt; remittance; Tajik economy; labor migration; wage bill; growth prospect; recovery level; Corporate income tax; Tariffs; Commercial banks; Central Asia; Global; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bottom; oil revenue; national bank of Kazakhstan; extraction industry; net lending; time deposit; production value; Agricultural commodities; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Natural gas sector; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Azerbaijan Republic: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for Azerbaijan aims to provide a guide to the management of Azerbaijan’s expected natural resource-generated windfall. The paper provides information on Azerbaijan’s endowment of oil and gas deposits and the projected revenue stream, and highlights the common characteristics of policies leading to the mismanagement of natural resource wealth in natural resource-abundant countries. It also outlines a medium- and long-term policy strategy for oil wealth management in Azerbaijan.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; manat; tax rate; Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan State statistics committee; manat broad money; gas revenue; oil GDP; oil revenue; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Natural resources; Demand for money; Baltics; Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines figures related to the key policy areas for the Kyrgyz Republic. Specifically, the paper studies the sources of growth, the cost competitiveness of export, and trade restrictions in the region, which are all linked to the achievement of the growth and poverty reduction targets of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy. It addresses the issues of agricultural taxation and fiscal aspects of the environment. The paper also focuses on a specific structural problem in taxation, and analyzes the fiscal aspects of environmental protection.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyzstan; export; VAT; cost; TFP growth; Kyrgyz export; cost competitiveness; NPRS growth target; output growth in the Kyrgyz Republic; Exports; Value-added tax; Agricultural sector; Total factor productivity; Transportation; Central Asia; Baltics; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix examines banking sector developments in the Republic of Tajikistan. The paper estimates quasi-fiscal activities in the energy sector, and provides an assessment of external sector trade and the need for further trade reform. Developments in the agriculture sector are assessed. The paper highlights that the lessons that emerge from recent experience indicate that weak institutions in Tajikistan have resulted in erratic implementation of structural reforms, which threaten the sustainability of the economy’s improved macroeconomic stability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; joint stock; banking system; trading company; banking sector; commercial bank; bank supervision; Tariffs; Agricultural commodities; Exports; Commercial banks; Imports; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 48, No. 1
Mr. Robert P Flood
This paper re-examines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1-3 percent for industrial countries and 11-12 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications.
Keywords:
SP; ERBS syndrome; TFP growth; threshold estimate; ERBS literature; trade liberalization; Inflation; Loans; Bank credit; Tariffs; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central and Eastern Europe