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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper estimates the extent and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in seven Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries using monthly data over the January 1995–May 2020 period. The estimations are performed using the local projections method. We find that the average pass-through in the CCA is about 10 percent on impact and about 25 percent after 12 months. There is no evidence of asymmetric ERPT with respect to the size and the sign of exchange rate changes. The pass-through is broadly unchanged in fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes. There has been a downward shift in the speed of ERPT in the aftermath of the global financial crisis as CCA countries have entered a relatively low inflation environment. The pass-through estimates could be used by the CCA monetary authorities for inflation projections. The absence of non-linearities in the pass-through with respect to the exchange rate regime suggests that transition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes in the region is not likely to impose additional inflationary costs.
Keywords:
WP; confidence interval; CPI inflation; CCA country; inflation environment; currency vis-à-vis; IMF staff estimation; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rate pass-through; Exchange rate arrangements; Inflation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; exchange rate regime; local projections; pass-through in CIS country
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia: the Gravity Model
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
Remitances are an important source of external financing in low- and middle-income countries. This paper uses the gravity model to analyze remittance flows in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries. Standard gravity determinants, such as GDP in sending and recieiving countries, bilateral distance, existence of common borders and common official language, fit remittance flows well. Remittances also react to inflation and exchange rate movements in recipient countries to sustain their purchasing power. In line with the altruism hypothesis, remittances flow to countries with higher age dependency ratio. Remittances are countercyclical and help stabilize outputs in recipient countries. However, global shocks resulting in sharp output losses of sending countries would lead to large volatility and decline of remittance inflows in recipient countries. The results of the analysis can be used to assess the impact of the COVID-19 shock on projected remittance flows into CCA.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; country; remittance flow; international remittances; migration; gravity model; recipient country; country j; bilateral remittance; pair level; sending country; Remittances; Gravity models; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Outward remittances; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Given its bulging working-age population, creating more and better jobs is the country’s overarching priority. Uzbekistan has already implemented a first wave of important economic reforms, including foreign exchange liberalization, tax reform, and a major upgrade in statistics. Faced with a vast structural reform agenda, the authorities want to prioritize reforms that address the economy’s most damaging distortions first. The main short-term macroeconomic stability challenge is to prevent a credit boom that could generate excessive external deficits and aggravate inflation pressures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; GDP; Uzbekistan; exchange rate; authority
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that given its bulging working-age population, creating more and better jobs is the country’s overarching priority. Uzbekistan has already implemented a first wave of important economic reforms, including foreign exchange liberalization, tax reform, and a major upgrade in statistics. Faced with a vast structural reform agenda, the authorities want to prioritize reforms that address the economy’s most damaging distortions first. The main short-term macroeconomic stability challenge is to prevent a credit boom that could generate excessive external deficits and aggravate inflation pressures. A tight monetary stance and moderate fiscal deficits need to be maintained to support macroeconomic stability. Credit growth will need to slow significantly to assure the economy’s external and internal balance. The sustainable development goals are anchoring the country’s inclusive growth agenda, especially on education, health, public infrastructure, and financial inclusion. Moreover, the authorities are redesigning labor policies from scratch to help unskilled and other disadvantaged workers find more and better jobs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; GDP; Uzbekistan; exchange rate; authority; state enterprise reform; policy lending; reform agenda; government finance; labor market; consumer inflation; mining revenue; bank soundness indicator; prudent fiscal policy; reform momentum; authorities' effort; CBU's capacity; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uzbekistan’s external position remains strong. External shocks, which began in 2014, lowered exports, commodity prices, and remittances and contributed to a decline in growth from about 8 percent to 5 percent in 2017. Growth of domestic employment remained below one percent. A loosening of fiscal and monetary policies, along with price and foreign exchange liberalization, caused inflation to pick up in late 2017 and was close to 20 percent in early 2018. International reserves were equivalent to 19 months of imports of goods and services at end-2017 and debt is low. GDP is projected to expand by about 5 percent in 2018–19, but domestic job creation will continue to lag.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fiscal policy; debt; real GDP; Uzbekistan; government; FX market reform; FRD deficit; market FX rate; PPG debt; prudent fiscal policy; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Credit; Central Asia; Global; East Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uzbekistan: 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses 2012 Article IV Consultation of Republic of Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan has been experiencing strong momentum in economic growth supported by sustained public investment and increased prices for commodity exports. The IMF report suggests that it is important to ease the restrictiveness of the foreign exchange and trade regimes, as it impedes the development of the financial and private sectors and distorts resource allocation. Improvement economic data quality and transparency should also be a high- priority item in the action list.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Uzbekistan; U.S. dollar; exchange rate; gross domestic product; commodity revenue; Uzbek authorities; export commodity; broad money growth; mineral revenue fund; Exports; Exchange rates; Global; Central Asia
Cover Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2007
Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2007
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Only the IMF is officialy responsible for reporting the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade restrictions, and prudential measures of its 185 member countries. This report draws upon information available to the IMF from a number of sources, including data provided in the course of official staff visits to member countries. Published since 1950, this authoritative, annually updated reference is based upon a unique IMF-maintained database that tracks monetary exchange arrangements for each of its 185 members, including historical information, along with entries for Hong Kong SAR (People's Republic of China) and Aruba and Netherlands Antilles (both Kingdom of the Netherlands). An introduction to the volume provides a summary of recent global trends and developments in the areas covered by the publication. It also provides insight into the types of capital controls most frequently used by countries dealing with increased capital inflows. Individual chapters for each member country report exchange measures in place, the structure and setting of exchange rates, arrangements for payments and receipts, procedures for resident and nonresident accounts, mechanisms for import and export payments and receipts, controls on capital transactions, and provisions specific to the financial sector. A separate section in each chapter lists changes made during 2006 and the first half of 2007. Information is presented in a clear, easy-to-read tabular format.

Keywords:
AREAER; foreign exchange account; exchange arrangement; EU regulation; investment portfolio; investment regulation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2006 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund
The 2006 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of Uzbekistan highlights the economic outlook and policy challenges. The banking system’s ability to fulfill its intermediary role has been constrained by limited credit expansion, given the strong growth in net foreign assets and the need to control the growth of reserve money. Executive Directors commended the Uzbek authorities on the strong performance of the economy, which has been supported by a favorable external environment, improvements in macroeconomic policies, and gradual progress in structural reforms.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; consultation; consultation informational annex; authority; policy; balance of payments; Uzbek authorities; policy dialogue; U.S. dollar; borrowing policy; Inflation; Central Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Tight Is Too Tight? A Look at Welfare Implications of Distortionary Policies in Uzbekistan
Mr. David A. Grigorian
and
Mr. Edward R Gemayel
Since independence in 1991, Uzbekistan has pursued a gradual approach to the transition from planned to market economy. This approach relied heavily on trade controls, directed credit, and large public investments. A number of financial sector measures were also instituted that distorted resource allocation and increased transaction costs. As a result, while possibly preventing the contraction of output in the early 1990s, these policies led to disappointing economic outcomes and social conditions. The paper reviews the underlying distortions and presents survey-based evidence to support their existence and their detrimental impact on economic activity. Looking forward, the paper-using a representative agent framework to model existing financial sector distortions-offers some guidance regarding the likely implications of eliminating the observed distortions on key aggregate variables. It suggests that the elimination of these distortions will enhance welfare and lead to increased investment and capital stock.
Keywords:
WP; cash; convertibility; convertibility restriction
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?
Mr. Andrea Bubula
and
Ms. Inci Ötker
This paper provides evidence on the susceptibility of different types of exchange rate regimes to currency crises during 1990-2001. It explores the incidence of crises, identified as episodes of severe exchange market pressure, to seek evidence on whether pegged regimes are more crisis prone than floating regimes and on whether certain types of pegged regimes are more crisis prone than others. The paper finds that pegged regimes, as a whole, have been characterized by a higher incidence of crises than floating regimes, for countries that are more integrated with international capital markets; and that intermediate regimes (mainly soft pegs and tightly-managed floating regimes) have been more crisis prone than both hard pegs and other floating regimes-a view consistent with the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes. The degree of crisis proneness seems to be broadly similar across different types of intermediate regimes.
Keywords:
WP; government; intermediate regime; exchange rate regime; exchange rate; bipolar view; pegged regimes; hard pegs; soft pegs; floats; intermediate regimes; currency crises; exchange market pressure; exchange regime classification; regime data; regime spectrum; regime continuum; floating regime; Exchange rate arrangements; Conventional peg; Crawling peg; Exchange rates; Currencies