Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Mr. David A. Grigorian
and
Mr. Hamid R Davoodi
Despite recording double digit growth since 2000, Armenia's tax-to-GDP ratio has been fairly stable at about 14½ percent. This paper catalogues a range of factors that may account for Armenia's stubbornly for tax collection by benchmarking Armenia's tax-to-GDP against some comparator countries and conducting an extensive econometric study of the main determinants of tax collection. We find empirical support for the hypothesis that the persistence of Armenia's low tax-GDP ratio can be traced to persistence of weak institutions and a large shadow economy. The gap between the potential and actual tax collection in Armenia could be as high as 6½ percent of GDP. We conclude with some policy recommendations that, if adopted, can boost revenue buoyancy.
Mr. Henri Lorie
Building on the substantial progress made in establishing fiscal systems consistent with market economies, the paper identifies priorities for further fiscal structural reforms among the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. Activities of extra budgetary accounts and quasi-fiscal activities need to be brought into the budget framework. Although there is room for improvements, the CIS countries now have, broadly, levels of tax revenues and expenditures not out of line with the international norm, taking into account income levels. The main challenges they face are to further increase the market friendliness of taxation and to implement an efficiency-improving structural reform of the expenditure system while strengthening control and accountability.