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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Staff Report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Request for Waiver of Structural Performance Criterion
International Monetary Fund
The Kyrgyz authorities have maintained macroeconomic discipline in recent years, despite a challenging political environment. This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic activity is rebounding in 2006, with year-over-year real GDP growth of 3.2 percent through September, after a slight contraction in 2005. Inflation is projected to rise slightly to just below 6 percent during 2006. Remonetization has gathered pace in recent years, but the financial system remains relatively shallow by international standards. Comprehensive financial reforms are under way and are slated to gain momentum under the IMF-supported program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz authorities; government; Kyrgyzstan; government authorization; Bank FSAP update mission; staff visit; fund staff; PRGF arrangement; Currencies; Capital spending; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Uzbek Growth Puzzle
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan’s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.
Keywords:
WP; Uzbek growth puzzle; Uzbek output path; Uzbek experience; Uzbek growth experience; Uzbek transition experience; Uzbekistan; Transition; Growth; Output; Public Investment; Cotton; Energy; Uzbekistan country dummy variable; Agricultural commodities; Public investment spending; Structural reforms; Natural resources; Capital spending; Eastern Europe; Central Asia; Baltics