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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Requests for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility and Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper examines Republic of Uzbekistan’s Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is significantly impacting Uzbekistan’s economy, reducing growth, and creating additional external and fiscal financing needs. IMF financial assistance under the RCF and the RFI, along with support from other multilateral institutions, will help cover Uzbekistan’s fiscal and balance of payments needs and mitigate the impact on its foreign exchange reserves. It will also provide resources to support increased crisis spending for healthcare, social protection, and public support for affected firms and households. Uzbekistan aims to continue implementing its structural reform agenda, to complete the transformation to a modern, open market economy, and to improve governance and public management. It has committed to safeguard the use and improve the efficiency of its public resources by increasing transparency and accountability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; fiscal policy; state; financing needs; State budget law; Uzbekistan's economy; disbursement of SDR; macroeconomic outlook; Credit; Debt sustainability analysis; Government debt management; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Given its bulging working-age population, creating more and better jobs is the country’s overarching priority. Uzbekistan has already implemented a first wave of important economic reforms, including foreign exchange liberalization, tax reform, and a major upgrade in statistics. Faced with a vast structural reform agenda, the authorities want to prioritize reforms that address the economy’s most damaging distortions first. The main short-term macroeconomic stability challenge is to prevent a credit boom that could generate excessive external deficits and aggravate inflation pressures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; GDP; Uzbekistan; exchange rate; authority
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that given its bulging working-age population, creating more and better jobs is the country’s overarching priority. Uzbekistan has already implemented a first wave of important economic reforms, including foreign exchange liberalization, tax reform, and a major upgrade in statistics. Faced with a vast structural reform agenda, the authorities want to prioritize reforms that address the economy’s most damaging distortions first. The main short-term macroeconomic stability challenge is to prevent a credit boom that could generate excessive external deficits and aggravate inflation pressures. A tight monetary stance and moderate fiscal deficits need to be maintained to support macroeconomic stability. Credit growth will need to slow significantly to assure the economy’s external and internal balance. The sustainable development goals are anchoring the country’s inclusive growth agenda, especially on education, health, public infrastructure, and financial inclusion. Moreover, the authorities are redesigning labor policies from scratch to help unskilled and other disadvantaged workers find more and better jobs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; GDP; Uzbekistan; exchange rate; authority; state enterprise reform; policy lending; reform agenda; government finance; labor market; consumer inflation; mining revenue; bank soundness indicator; prudent fiscal policy; reform momentum; authorities' effort; CBU's capacity; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uzbekistan’s external position remains strong. External shocks, which began in 2014, lowered exports, commodity prices, and remittances and contributed to a decline in growth from about 8 percent to 5 percent in 2017. Growth of domestic employment remained below one percent. A loosening of fiscal and monetary policies, along with price and foreign exchange liberalization, caused inflation to pick up in late 2017 and was close to 20 percent in early 2018. International reserves were equivalent to 19 months of imports of goods and services at end-2017 and debt is low. GDP is projected to expand by about 5 percent in 2018–19, but domestic job creation will continue to lag.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fiscal policy; debt; real GDP; Uzbekistan; government; FX market reform; FRD deficit; market FX rate; PPG debt; prudent fiscal policy; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Credit; Central Asia; Global; East Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development in the CIS-7 Countries: Bridging the Great Divide
Mr. Gianni De Nicolo
,
Mr. Sami Geadah
, and
Mr. Dmitriy L Rozhkov
This paper documents the great divide in the level of financial development between the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 7 countries and the more advanced economies in transition, in particular those of Central and Eastern Europe and Baltic states. It discusses the roots of financial underdevelopment in the CIS-7 countries by examining the differentials in interest rate spreads between the CIS-7 countries and the transition economies that have achieved faster financial development. The roots of the divide are traced to weaknesses in the institutional infrastructure for financial intermediation, which lead to a combination of low depositor trust in the banking system and high credit risk. High credit risk stems mainly from the poor creditor-rights protection and weak auditing and accounting standards. Financial sector reform strategies that fail to give priority to the resolution of weaknesses in the basic financial infrastructure are unlikely to be successful in letting the CIS-7 countries bridge the great divide.
Keywords:
WP; bank; cost; lending; CEE+B; rate; Financial development; transition economies; transition economy; lending rate; ownership structure; bank size; nonviable bank; intermediation activity; bank concentration; CIS country; Financial sector development; Commercial banks; Credit risk; Credit; Deposit rates; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 48, No. 1
Mr. Robert P Flood
This paper re-examines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1-3 percent for industrial countries and 11-12 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications.
Keywords:
SP; ERBS syndrome; TFP growth; threshold estimate; ERBS literature; trade liberalization; Inflation; Loans; Bank credit; Tariffs; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tajikistan: Second Review Under the Third Annual Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver of a Performance Criterion—Staff Report and News Brief on the Executive Board Discussion
International Monetary Fund
An IMF staff team has visited Dushanbe during April 23–May 3, 2001, to undertake the second review of the third annual arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). With the exception of a continuous performance criterion pertaining to the accumulation of external arrears, all of the performance criteria for end-March 2001 have been observed. The authorities continue to make good progress with the preparation of their Poverty Reduction and Strategy Paper (PRSP). Policy performance under the macroeconomic and structural adjustment program has improved in recent months, but some concerns persist.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; amount; Tajikistan's real GDP; effort; policy effort; amount of SDR; U.S. dollar; national bank of Tajikistan; trade weight; Tajik authorities; collection unit; public funds; treasury bill yield; month treasury bill rate; Debt service; Monetary base; Credit
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tajikistan: 2001 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Third Annual Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility; and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria — Staff Report; Public Information Notice and News Brief; Statement on Behalf of the Authorities of Tajikistan
International Monetary Fund
As regards the performance under the third year arrangement, all performance criteria for end-December 2000 have been met, with the exception of the net domestic assets (NDA) target for the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT). For several years, Tajikistan has been implementing an economic reform program intended to foster growth and poverty reduction through the development of the private sector and market-oriented mechanisms. Fiscal performance is satisfactory, but slippages in monetary policy have led to a surge in inflation and a sizable currency depreciation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Tajik authorities; Tajikistan; expenditure restraint; PRGF program; authority; adjustment effort; auditing agency; Exchange rates; Credit; Debt service; Monetary base
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tajikistan: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in the Republic of Tajikistan during 1994–97. In 1996, the authorities embarked on their first comprehensive effort at economic reform, supported by financial assistance from the World Bank and the IMF. Although implementation was uneven, the authorities were successful in achieving a degree of macroeconomic stability during the first three quarters of 1996; progress was also made on structural reforms. However, confronted with substantial unanticipated expenditures, the budget deficit increased substantially in late 1996 and the first half of 1997.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt service; broad money; budget deficit; foreign exchange; savings bank; economic activity; Tajik ruble; state enterprise; Agricultural commodities; Credit; Commercial banks; Currencies; Central Asia; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover Central Bank Reforms in the Baltics, Russia, and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Central Bank Reforms in the Baltics, Russia, and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Mr. Malcolm D. Knight

Abstract

Since 1991, the 15 countries under review - have to varying degrees, been pursuing reforms whose broad objectives have been to achieve market-based determination of interest rates and exchange rates, manage banking system liquidity through market operations with indirect instruments, and provide the institutional underpinnings for the design and implementation of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform programs supported by the IMF. This study reviews the experience under these programs and the economic developments in the countries that undertook them.

Keywords:
OP; central bank; country; accounting reform; bank; internal audit reform issue; reform issue; country ranking; bank governance; restructuring policy; Commercial banks; Treasury bills and bonds; Credit; Currencies; Baltics; Payment systems; Currency markets; Bank supervision; Bank resolution