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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Uzbekistan’s growth momentum continues on the back of far-reaching structural reforms to liberalize its economy, favorable commodity prices, and notable increases in financial and income flows. Growth is expected to remain robust at 5.4 percent in 2024, despite the appropriate withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and slowing trading partner growth. In 2025, growth is projected to pick up to around 5½ percent. Needed increases in administered energy prices would temporarily raise inflation to 11.5 percent by end-2024. The government’s planned fiscal consolidation is appropriate and will help reduce inflation and imports while protecting the vulnerable. Further efforts are needed to broaden the tax base, modernize the tax system, improve the efficiency of public spending, and strengthen public financial management. Monetary policy should remain focused on reducing inflation to the central bank’s target and be tightened if energy price reforms spill over to core inflation and inflation expectations. Structural reforms should focus on reducing the state’s role in the economy, promoting women’s participation in the labor market, advancing decarbonization and climate adaptation initiatives, and enhancing governance and transparency, building on progress already made.
Keywords:
central bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan; PPG debt; IMF's classification system; consumer price inflation projection; lending portfolio; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Inflation; Loans; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Uzbekistan’s Transition to Inflation Targeting
Moayad Al Rasasi
and
Ezequiel Cabezon
Uzbekistan has significantly improved its monetary policy framework during 2017-21. Nevertheless, the transition to inflation targeting is challenging as the country is going through a period of deep structural reforms. Therefore, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) will have to monitor structural reforms and calibrate monetary policy accordingly. This paper identifies institutional and structural gaps, and assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Institutional gaps are assessed using institutional indexes while transmission is assessed using VARs. It concludes that in the coming years, reforms will need to continue, to further improve the CBU’s governance and independence, develop financial markets, but most of all to reduce the still large footprint of the state in the financial sector as well as in the overall economy.
Keywords:
Uzbekistan; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; post inflation targeting implementation; monetary policy outcome; monetary policy transmission; inflation targeting condition; transition to inflation targeting; transmission mechanism; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Dollarization; Currency markets; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper estimates the extent and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in seven Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries using monthly data over the January 1995–May 2020 period. The estimations are performed using the local projections method. We find that the average pass-through in the CCA is about 10 percent on impact and about 25 percent after 12 months. There is no evidence of asymmetric ERPT with respect to the size and the sign of exchange rate changes. The pass-through is broadly unchanged in fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes. There has been a downward shift in the speed of ERPT in the aftermath of the global financial crisis as CCA countries have entered a relatively low inflation environment. The pass-through estimates could be used by the CCA monetary authorities for inflation projections. The absence of non-linearities in the pass-through with respect to the exchange rate regime suggests that transition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes in the region is not likely to impose additional inflationary costs.
Keywords:
WP; confidence interval; CPI inflation; CCA country; inflation environment; currency vis-à-vis; IMF staff estimation; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rate pass-through; Exchange rate arrangements; Inflation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; exchange rate regime; local projections; pass-through in CIS country
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia: the Gravity Model
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
Remitances are an important source of external financing in low- and middle-income countries. This paper uses the gravity model to analyze remittance flows in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries. Standard gravity determinants, such as GDP in sending and recieiving countries, bilateral distance, existence of common borders and common official language, fit remittance flows well. Remittances also react to inflation and exchange rate movements in recipient countries to sustain their purchasing power. In line with the altruism hypothesis, remittances flow to countries with higher age dependency ratio. Remittances are countercyclical and help stabilize outputs in recipient countries. However, global shocks resulting in sharp output losses of sending countries would lead to large volatility and decline of remittance inflows in recipient countries. The results of the analysis can be used to assess the impact of the COVID-19 shock on projected remittance flows into CCA.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; country; remittance flow; international remittances; migration; gravity model; recipient country; country j; bilateral remittance; pair level; sending country; Remittances; Gravity models; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Outward remittances; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions underscore these vulnerabilities, and suggest that sustained administrative measures are unlikely to prove effective. In line with structural economic features, the interest rate channel of monetary policy is found to be limited, arguing for a broad policy strategy to control more expansive inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, measures to enhance supply responses, deepen domestic financial markets, develop adequate social safety nets, and increase central bank independence are warranted.
Keywords:
WP; price; food; headline inflation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2008 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund
This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Uzbek economy has performed well in recent years. The favorable external environment and improvements in macroeconomic policies resulted in high growth rates, large current account surpluses, a significant decline in the debt burden, and a more than quadrupling of foreign exchange reserves from 2003 to 2007. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for Uzbekistan’s continued strong economic performance, which has benefited from a generally favorable external environment and an improved policy framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; consultation informational annex; consultation; Uzbek economy; Uzbekistan; foreign direct investment inflow; Uzbek authorities; U.S. dollar; broad money growth; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Global; article IV consultation discussion; IMF office; Budget planning and preparation
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, May 2007, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, May 2007, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Strong economic performance across the Middle East and Central Asia is examined against the background of high prices for energy and other commodities. Common economic trends are presented, while prospects and policies are reviewed for the coming year in light of the global economic environment. This latest REO includes boxes treating specific regional topics, such as financial sector reforms and integration in Maghreb countries; economic developments in oil-exporting countries in response to changes in petroleum prices; and the growth boom in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Keywords:
REO; country; price; government; quote; oil price; Brent crude; commodity price; debt ratio; nominal exchange rate; emerging market country; Oil prices; Oil; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; gas and mining taxes; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2006 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund
The 2006 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of Uzbekistan highlights the economic outlook and policy challenges. The banking system’s ability to fulfill its intermediary role has been constrained by limited credit expansion, given the strong growth in net foreign assets and the need to control the growth of reserve money. Executive Directors commended the Uzbek authorities on the strong performance of the economy, which has been supported by a favorable external environment, improvements in macroeconomic policies, and gradual progress in structural reforms.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; consultation; consultation informational annex; authority; policy; balance of payments; Uzbek authorities; policy dialogue; U.S. dollar; borrowing policy; Inflation; Central Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Russian Federation: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FSU country; CIS country; oil revenue; oil price; consumption rule
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Russian Federation: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Russia’s large oil and gas reserves play a key role in its economic development. As with many other large oil exporters, Russia’s energy wealth is also posing numerous challenges to macroeconomic management. Although fiscal policy has saved a large part of the oil windfall in the Oil Stabilization Fund (OSF), this has not been guided by a consistent long-term framework. The framework is illustrated with numerical simulations of different fiscal spending rules that are consistent with sustainable paths of consumption out of oil and gas wealth over time.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FSU country; CIS country; oil revenue; oil price; consumption rule; w Russia; Oil prices; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Exports; Baltics