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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Uzbekistan’s growth momentum continues on the back of far-reaching structural reforms to liberalize its economy, favorable commodity prices, and notable increases in financial and income flows. Growth is expected to remain robust at 5.4 percent in 2024, despite the appropriate withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and slowing trading partner growth. In 2025, growth is projected to pick up to around 5½ percent. Needed increases in administered energy prices would temporarily raise inflation to 11.5 percent by end-2024. The government’s planned fiscal consolidation is appropriate and will help reduce inflation and imports while protecting the vulnerable. Further efforts are needed to broaden the tax base, modernize the tax system, improve the efficiency of public spending, and strengthen public financial management. Monetary policy should remain focused on reducing inflation to the central bank’s target and be tightened if energy price reforms spill over to core inflation and inflation expectations. Structural reforms should focus on reducing the state’s role in the economy, promoting women’s participation in the labor market, advancing decarbonization and climate adaptation initiatives, and enhancing governance and transparency, building on progress already made.
Keywords:
central bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan; PPG debt; IMF's classification system; consumer price inflation projection; lending portfolio; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Inflation; Loans; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Tajik banking sector; sample estimation; Tajik rail road; SOE Sector; B. tax revenue performance; Tajik cement; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tajik telecom; Fiscal risks; Commercial banks; Contingent liabilities; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics Mission (September 30-October 11, 2010)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the Republic of Uzbekistan authorities for technical assistance (TA) on external sector statistics (ESS), and with the support of the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a mission from the IMF Statistics Department (STA) visited Tashkent from September 30 through October 11, 2019. This was the second TA mission under the auspices of the Data for Decisions Fund and the third since the Presidential Order of September 12, 2017, on Measures to Ensure the Accessibility and Openness of Economic and Financial Data for the Republic of Uzbekistan was issued.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBU balance; nonfinancial corporation; SSC data; CBU estimate; CBU survey; CBU website; debt forgiveness; trade credit assets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics Mission (September 30-October 11, 2010)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the authorities of the Republic of Uzbekistan in response to their request for technical assistance. The main objective of the mission was to assist the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan in improving the collection, processing, and dissemination of balance of payments, international investment position, and gross external debt statistical data, including improvement of the International Transactions Reporting System, as well as implementation of a medium-term program for further development. After the Republic of Uzbekistan authorities embarked on a course toward greater openness in the country, Uzbekistan made some progress in improving the production and dissemination of statistical data, but in addition to the gains that were seen, the mission noted a number of deficiencies in the External sector statistics compilation system. It is imperative to correct the methodology for calculating operations involving reinvested income for financial corporations and reflect the results obtained in the balance of payments.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBU balance; nonfinancial corporation; SSC data; CBU estimate; CBU survey; CBU website; debt forgiveness; trade credit assets
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Bank Interest Margins in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Raja Almarzoqi
and
Samy Ben Naceur
In this paper, we use a bank-level panel dataset to investigate the determinants of bank interest margins in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) over the period 1998–2013. We apply the dealership model of Ho and Saunders (1981) and its extensions to assess the extent to which high spreads of banks in the CCA can be related to bank-specific variables, to competition, and to macroeconomic factors. We find that interest spreads are affected by operating cost, credit risk, liquidity risk, bank size, bank diversification, banking sector competition, and macroeconomic policies; but the impact depends on the country.
Keywords:
WP; interest margin; interest; bank
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 48, No. 1
Mr. Robert P Flood
This paper re-examines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1-3 percent for industrial countries and 11-12 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications.
Keywords:
SP; ERBS syndrome; TFP growth; threshold estimate; ERBS literature; trade liberalization; Inflation; Loans; Bank credit; Tariffs; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central and Eastern Europe