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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Uzbekistan: Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy and Annual Borrowing Plan
Marie S Kim
,
Lilia Razlog
,
Juan Carlos Vilanova
, and
Juan Lorenzo Maldonado
At the request of the authorities, a joint World Bank-IMF technical assistance (TA) mission visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan during October 9–20, 2023 to help the authorities in developing a mediumterm debt management strategy (MTDS), designing an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP), and to train the authorities on the use of the Medium-term Debt Management Strategy Analytical tool (MTDS AT) and ABP AT. The mission presented its main findings and recommendations to the authorities and left a draft report at the end of the mission.
Keywords:
Annual Borrowing Plan; Debt Management Strategy; Local Currency Government Securities; Medium-term Debt Strategy; Ministry of Economy; Finance; Technical Assistance; Uzbekistan
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Improve Public Investment Management in Low-Income Countries
Khaled Eltokhy
,
Nicoletta Feruglio
,
Kezhou Miao
,
Arturo Navarro
, and
Eivind Tandberg
This How to Note discusses how low-income developing countries (LIDCs) can strengthen the effectiveness and efficiency of their public investment. The note draws on Public Investment Management Assessments and focuses on eight institutions that are likely to be key reform priorities in many LIDCs: project appraisal, multi-year budgeting, maintenance, project selection, procurement, availability of funding, project management, and monitoring of public assets. For each of these, the note discusses basic practices, which should be realistic initial reform objectives for low-capacity countries, as well as medium practices that may be relevant objectives for medium-term reforms. The note also discusses how to overcome reform implementation challenges and consolidate the reforms and provides examples of action plans to implement the different reforms.
Keywords:
Public investment management; public financial management (PFM); low-income developing countries; public investment management assessment (PIMA); public investment efficiency; reform agenda; management bottleneck; management priority; efficiency frontier; management reform; Public investment spending; Budget planning and preparation; Government cash forecasting
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-Report on National Accounts Mission (July 24–August 4, 2023)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance mission assisted the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in conducting a major revision of national accounts time series. Based on the results of the 2023 survey on non-observed economy (NOE) in hotels, restaurants, and other services, the 2024 major revision increases the nominal GDP for 2017–2023 in the range of 10–12 percent. The mission reviewed the results of the 2024 major revision and provided recommendations for improvement before their publication. These improvements to data and methods will improve the understanding of the Uzbekistan economy, both for domestic policymaking and international surveillance.
Keywords:
National accounts; GDP; major revision; non-observed economy.; World Bank staff; TA recipient; steering committee of CCAMTAC; SUT data; SA staff; Consumption; Agricultural commodities; Household consumption; Economic classification
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses key channels by which fiscal consolidation impacts short- and medium-term growth, examines the international experience on how to make fiscal consolidation more growth friendly, and analyzes policy implications for Uzbekistan. A large part of the adjustment is implemented with high-quality efficiency-enhancing measures: reducing energy subsidies, improving the targeting of social spending, and curbing policy lending. The World Bank Public Expenditure Review notes that nonwage spending in health and education is low and crowded out by high wage bills, which have been growing in recent years as efforts to improve pay in these areas were implemented. This points to the need to review the adequacy of nonwage spending in these sectors and undertake wage bill rationalization more broadly since these are large sectors of public employment. In the specific case of health spending, consideration should be given to strengthening primary care and introducing task-shifting which will lead to greater efficiency from health wage bill expenditure by shifting its composition over the medium term. Unify the public investment process irrespective of the financing source; create a unified appraisal and selection process; establish a single project pipeline; and improve project monitoring and evaluation to increase public investment efficiency.
Keywords:
market regulation; privatizing state enterprises; impact of fiscal consolidation; channels of impact; government data; Fiscal consolidation; Corruption; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Uzbekistan’s growth momentum continues on the back of far-reaching structural reforms to liberalize its economy, favorable commodity prices, and notable increases in financial and income flows. Growth is expected to remain robust at 5.4 percent in 2024, despite the appropriate withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and slowing trading partner growth. In 2025, growth is projected to pick up to around 5½ percent. Needed increases in administered energy prices would temporarily raise inflation to 11.5 percent by end-2024. The government’s planned fiscal consolidation is appropriate and will help reduce inflation and imports while protecting the vulnerable. Further efforts are needed to broaden the tax base, modernize the tax system, improve the efficiency of public spending, and strengthen public financial management. Monetary policy should remain focused on reducing inflation to the central bank’s target and be tightened if energy price reforms spill over to core inflation and inflation expectations. Structural reforms should focus on reducing the state’s role in the economy, promoting women’s participation in the labor market, advancing decarbonization and climate adaptation initiatives, and enhancing governance and transparency, building on progress already made.
Keywords:
central bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan; PPG debt; IMF's classification system; consumer price inflation projection; lending portfolio; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Inflation; Loans; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reported Social Unrest Index: August 2023 Update
Mr. Philip Barrett
and
Euihyun Bae
This paper is the second update of the Reported Social Unrest Index (Barrett et al. 2022), outlining developments in global social unrest since March 2022. It shows that the fraction of countries experiencing major social unrest events has been stable. Reasons for social unrest can be broadly categorized as stemming from sdebate over constitutional issues, protests connected to specific policies, and other generalized disorder.
Keywords:
attempts to proxy; fraction of country; copyright page; update of the Reported Social Unrest Index; IMF surveillance; Pension spending; Machine learning; Pension reform; Stock markets; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.
Keywords:
Uzbek soum; authorities' effort; inflation expectation; Uzbek authorities; policy lending; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.
Keywords:
Uzbek soum; authorities' effort; inflation expectation; Uzbek authorities; policy lending; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Eurobond Liquidity and Yields
Mr. Daniel C Hardy
Market liquidity is of value to both investors and issuers of securities, and is therefore a crucial factor in asset pricing. For the important asset class of Eurobonds, significant feedback from liquidity to pricing is established, and it is shown that bid-ask spreads (a proxy for market liquidity) and yields are closely related to bond characteristics such as issue volume, time to maturity, the inclusion of collective action clauses, and the jurisdiction of issuance. Debt management offices can choose these characteristics in a way that has economically significant and persistent effects on both liquidity and pricing.
Keywords:
Eurobond yields; bid-ask spread; liquidity; debt management; instrument design; Log yield determinant; Eurobond liquidity; market liquidity; debt management office; summary statistics; Bonds; Credit ratings; Collective action clauses; Bond yields; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Tajik banking sector; sample estimation; Tajik rail road; SOE Sector; B. tax revenue performance; Tajik cement; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tajik telecom; Fiscal risks; Commercial banks; Contingent liabilities; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia