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Sarosh Sattar
and
Mr. Clinton R. Shiells

Abstract

The CIS-7 Initiative was launched in 2002 and endorsed by ministers from the CIS-7 and donor countries, with the objective of promoting poverty reduction, economic growth, and debt sustainability among the seven poorest countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This volume draws from the follow-up conference held in Lucerne, Switzerland, in January 2003. The objective of this conference was to achieve an understanding of the development agenda in the seven countries and the key policy measures to be taken by the governments and donors to improve future prospects for the countries’ populations.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines figures related to the key policy areas for the Kyrgyz Republic. Specifically, the paper studies the sources of growth, the cost competitiveness of export, and trade restrictions in the region, which are all linked to the achievement of the growth and poverty reduction targets of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy. It addresses the issues of agricultural taxation and fiscal aspects of the environment. The paper also focuses on a specific structural problem in taxation, and analyzes the fiscal aspects of environmental protection.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix examines banking sector developments in the Republic of Tajikistan. The paper estimates quasi-fiscal activities in the energy sector, and provides an assessment of external sector trade and the need for further trade reform. Developments in the agriculture sector are assessed. The paper highlights that the lessons that emerge from recent experience indicate that weak institutions in Tajikistan have resulted in erratic implementation of structural reforms, which threaten the sustainability of the economy’s improved macroeconomic stability.
Mr. Robert P Flood
This paper re-examines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1-3 percent for industrial countries and 11-12 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications.
Mr. Michael P. Leidy
and
Mr. Ali Ibrahim
This paper reviews the extent to which the Fund’s trade policy advice to the Baltic countries, Russia and other countries of the Former Soviet Union has been implemented. It broadly traces the evolution of trade policies, emphasizing the period from mid-1993 through end-1995, attempting to identify some of the factors affecting uneven progress in trade reform. Based on insights from the public choice literature on endogenous policy theory, the paper makes recommendations for refining Fund advice with a view to facilitating future progress on the trade-policy front.