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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Central Banks and Their Policies x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Uzbekistan’s Transition to Inflation Targeting
Moayad Al Rasasi
and
Ezequiel Cabezon
Uzbekistan has significantly improved its monetary policy framework during 2017-21. Nevertheless, the transition to inflation targeting is challenging as the country is going through a period of deep structural reforms. Therefore, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) will have to monitor structural reforms and calibrate monetary policy accordingly. This paper identifies institutional and structural gaps, and assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Institutional gaps are assessed using institutional indexes while transmission is assessed using VARs. It concludes that in the coming years, reforms will need to continue, to further improve the CBU’s governance and independence, develop financial markets, but most of all to reduce the still large footprint of the state in the financial sector as well as in the overall economy.
Keywords:
Uzbekistan; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; post inflation targeting implementation; monetary policy outcome; monetary policy transmission; inflation targeting condition; transition to inflation targeting; transmission mechanism; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Dollarization; Currency markets; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions underscore these vulnerabilities, and suggest that sustained administrative measures are unlikely to prove effective. In line with structural economic features, the interest rate channel of monetary policy is found to be limited, arguing for a broad policy strategy to control more expansive inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, measures to enhance supply responses, deepen domestic financial markets, develop adequate social safety nets, and increase central bank independence are warranted.
Keywords:
WP; price; food; headline inflation
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia
Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos
and
Ms. Tatiana Damjanovic
This paper reviews the economic conditions in central Asia at the time of the Russian financial crisis of August 1998; the channels by which the crisis was transmitted to the central Asian region; and the policy responses. The paper concludes that, while real exchange rates of central Asian national currencies vis-à-vis the Russian ruble have returned to their pre-crisis levels following the nominal devaluations that ensued, other indicators of external competitiveness, such as unit labor cost indices, suggest the need for further surveillance in this area. Also, it is not yet clear if full exchange rate flexibility has been established in central Asia despite the protracted and costly exits from the nominal exchange rates in place at the time of the crisis. Finally, the debt-to-GDP ratios in central Asia, which grew rapidly between 1998 and 1999 in the context of large exchange rate adjustments, remain a challenge for the Tajik and Kyrgyz authorities, in particular.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; Kazakhstan; Kyrgyzstan; Tajikistan; financial crisis; Russian financial crisis; exchange rate policy; external debt issues; expenditure switching; exchange rate depreciation; export competitiveness problem vis-a-vis Russia; Tajik ruble; exchange rate fixity; exchange rate volatility; competitiveness problem vis-a-vis Russia; Uzbek sum; problem vis-a-vis Russia; exchange rate peg; Tajik government; expenditure switching policy; Exchange rates; Exports; Exchange rate arrangements; Central Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan's Foreign Exchange Regime
International Monetary Fund
In addition to transferring about 16 percent of GDP from exporters to importers, Uzbekistan’s quasi-fiscal multiple exchange rate regime generates identifiable welfare losses of 2-8 percent of GDP on import markets and up to 15 percent on export markets. These excess burdens have increased substantially with the growing difference of exchange rates. The welfare analysis allows some conclusions regarding the optimal reform strategy: (i) welfare losses will decline overproportionally as exchange rates unify; (ii) exchange rate unification should be supplemented by changing the explicit fiscal system; (iii) at a minimum, Uzbekistan would benefit from moving to an explicit fiscal regime.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; market; export; rate; Multiple Exchange Rates; Welfare Analysis; Quasi-Fiscal Operations; Uzbekistan; U.S. dollar; welfare loss; curb market premium; foreign exchange regime; import market; clearing exchange rate; Exchange rates; Exports; Market exchange rates
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Inflows in the Baltic Countries, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Monetary and Prudential Issues
Mr. Alain Ize
Significant capital inflows were observed during the first half of 1995 in a number of FSU countries. This paper reviews the recent experience of those countries with significant inflows, examines policy responses in view of the current macroeconomic and institutional environment, discusses the use of monetary and prudential instruments to sterilize or discourage inflows, and reviews operational considerations for conducting sterilization operations.
Keywords:
WP; FSU; market; bank; monetary policy; cost; FSU country; nominal exchange rate; market liquidity; sterilization instrument; financial situation; Sterilization; Capital inflows; Inflation; Reserve requirements; Monetary base; Baltics