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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) report on Republic of Uzbekistan discusses summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations of National Accounts mission. The Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center (CCAMTAC) conducted a TA mission on source data for national accounts. The main purpose of the mission was to assist the Statistics Agency (SA) of Uzbekistan in improving source data for compiling annual and quarterly gross domestic product (GDP). The national accounts team has made very good progress in compiling and disseminating quarterly national accounts aggregates on a discrete basis, which are required for subscription to the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The mission reviewed and discussed source data collection issues for all GDP activities. The mission reviewed the compilation of some GDP aggregates. The methods for quarterly GDP discrete estimates follow international best practices. During the meeting with senior management, it has been agreed that all improvements suggested to source data would be taken into account and implemented. Moreover, cooperation with tax authorities should be sought to increase data coverage for small and micro units, as well as individual producers.
Keywords:
GDP; GDP by production; source data; statistical questionnaires; trade margins.; World Bank staff; IMF executive directors; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Compialtion issue; SA business statistics division; Data collection; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Consumer price indexes; Industrial production
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) report on Republic of Uzbekistan focuses on details of National Accounts Statistics mission. Significant progress on national accounts made by The Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in recent years has been reflected in the compilation of discrete quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) and the implementation of 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA), although there are some areas for further improvement. The mission noted that the quality of national accounts is highly dependent on the quality of data sources, and their improvement should be a priority for the SA. The mission reviewed the structure of gross value added at current prices and the share of each sector in GDP and identified sectors with underestimated levels of non-observed economy (NOE). The mission recommended that the SA conduct sector-specific NOE surveys in the relevant sectors. The mission also reviewed the compilation of supply and use tables and developed a plan for further improvement. The mission recommended that the SA apply sampling methods when planning each survey. High-quality questionnaires and representative sampling are important for sector specific surveys. The sampling of households should be stratified and should include all geographical regions of the country.
Keywords:
GDP; supply and use tables; non-observed economy; FISIM; 2008 SNA.; World Bank staff; SA staff; IMF executive directors; instrumentalities of the CD recipient; SUT framework; NOE estimate; Consumption; Household consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Uzbekistan’s Transition to Inflation Targeting
Moayad Al Rasasi
and
Ezequiel Cabezon
Uzbekistan has significantly improved its monetary policy framework during 2017-21. Nevertheless, the transition to inflation targeting is challenging as the country is going through a period of deep structural reforms. Therefore, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) will have to monitor structural reforms and calibrate monetary policy accordingly. This paper identifies institutional and structural gaps, and assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Institutional gaps are assessed using institutional indexes while transmission is assessed using VARs. It concludes that in the coming years, reforms will need to continue, to further improve the CBU’s governance and independence, develop financial markets, but most of all to reduce the still large footprint of the state in the financial sector as well as in the overall economy.
Keywords:
Uzbekistan; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; post inflation targeting implementation; monetary policy outcome; monetary policy transmission; inflation targeting condition; transition to inflation targeting; transmission mechanism; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Dollarization; Currency markets; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.
Keywords:
Uzbek soum; authorities' effort; inflation expectation; Uzbek authorities; policy lending; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.
Keywords:
Uzbek soum; authorities' effort; inflation expectation; Uzbek authorities; policy lending; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-Multi-Topic Statistics Diagnostic
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the authorities, a remote multi-topic statistics diagnostic mission for Uzbekistan took place during March 1–19, 2021.1 In close cooperation with officials of the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (SSC), the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU), and the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the mission (i) assessed the collection, compilation, and dissemination practices for the datasets covered by the mission; (ii) identified key high-level priorities and developed a medium-term action plan for statistical improvement and the associated capacity development (CD) needs; and (iii) developed a roadmap for subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The mission covered the following topics: national accounts (NA) and prices, 2 government finance statistics (GFS) including public debt, external sector statistics (ESS), monetary and financial statistics (MFS), and SDDS subscription.
Keywords:
C. government finance Statistics; transparency Division; public sector debt Statistics; IMF's Statistics Department; balance of payments Department; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Monetary statistics; Commercial banks; Central Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Tajik banking sector; sample estimation; Tajik rail road; SOE Sector; B. tax revenue performance; Tajik cement; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tajik telecom; Fiscal risks; Commercial banks; Contingent liabilities; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Traction
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper presents traction as a multidimensional concept and discusses a comprehensive and complementary set of approaches to attempt to measure it based on the Fund’s value added to policy dialogue and formulation and public debate in member countries.
Keywords:
article IV advice; fund policy advice; fund advice; policy dialogue; IMF's transparency policy; COVID-19; Income; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Financial sector stability; Machine learning; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies. Uzbekistan entered the COVID-19 crisis with relatively strong macro-economic fundamentals.
Keywords:
Policy discussion; government transparency; Policy recommendation; IMF's transparency policy; macro-economic policies; Budget planning and preparation; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
Keywords:
SP; central bank; Uzbekistan; inflation target; income elasticity; exchange rate volatility; export demand equation; Uzbek growth puzzle; financing requirement; Uzbek experience; Exchange rates; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Commercial banks; Exports; Baltics; Western Europe; East Asia; Africa