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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Joint Staff Advisory Note
International Monetary Fund
The Joint Staff Note (JNS) reports that Welfare Improvement Strategy (WIS) showed a commendable effort under the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) in Uzbekistan. They stressed that implementation capacity within the government would have to be strengthened. Executive Directors agreed that strong implementation of the WIS and strengthening of WIS policy analysis and design would help reduce poverty and achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). They stressed the need for contributing toward the cost of programs and policies, establishing methods and institutions for its monitoring and evaluation, and providing technical assistance for raising the standards of WIS formulation and implementation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; WIS documents poverty trend; WIS agenda; WIS policy analysis; income poverty diagnosis; gradualist approach; poverty analysis; government of the Republic of Uzbekistan; WIS lack specificity; state intervention; Poverty reduction; Poverty reduction strategy; Structural reforms
Cover Growth Experience in Transition Countries, 90-98
Growth Experience in Transition Countries, 90-98
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This study, another in the series focusing on special issues in transition, reviews the experience of output decline and recovery in the 25 countries of eastern and central Europe and the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union. Although these countries began the process of economic transformation with similar circumstances of output decline, the extent of decline, its duration, and the sustainability of recovery in growth varied considerably. The authors explore the factors behind this variation and find that the most important policies promoting early and sustained recovery were ones that supported financial stabilization and structural reforms in key areas such as private sector development, the tax system, economic liberalization, and secure property rights.

Keywords:
OP; transition country; country; economy; transition economy; rating agency; market signal; productivity calculation; Structural reforms; Privatization; Foreign direct investment; Productivity; Europe; Baltics; Central and Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Uzbek Growth Puzzle
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan’s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.
Keywords:
WP; Uzbek growth puzzle; Uzbek output path; Uzbek experience; Uzbek growth experience; Uzbek transition experience; Uzbekistan; Transition; Growth; Output; Public Investment; Cotton; Energy; Uzbekistan country dummy variable; Agricultural commodities; Public investment spending; Structural reforms; Natural resources; Capital spending; Eastern Europe; Central Asia; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
and
Mr. Günther Taube
What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.
Keywords:
WP; Uzbek experience; output performance; reform policy; private sector; Uzbek growth path; Uzbekistan; Transition; Growth; Output; Sustainability; unmeasured Uzbekistan effect; Uzbek authorities; Uzbek growth experience; consumer goods; Agricultural commodities; Structural reforms; Agricultural sector; Public investment spending; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990–97: A Stylized Regression Analysis
International Monetary Fund
This paper analyzes the determinants of growth in 25 transition economies during 1990–97. The paper’s main finding is that macroeconomic stabilization, structural reform, and reduction of government expenditures are key to achieving sustainable growth. Although the initial effect of reforms on output may be negative, over time the best growth performances are in those countries with the greatest progress in implementing reforms. The analysis also confirms that although adverse initial conditions hurt growth, their effect is small compared to the other factors.
Keywords:
WP; market economy; CIS country; economic growth; low income; Transition and growth; reforms; sustainable growth; initial conditions of transition; transition country; country dummy; effects estimate; Structural reforms; Inflation; Government debt management; Central and Eastern Europe; Baltics; Eastern Europe