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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Eurobond Liquidity and Yields
Mr. Daniel C Hardy
Market liquidity is of value to both investors and issuers of securities, and is therefore a crucial factor in asset pricing. For the important asset class of Eurobonds, significant feedback from liquidity to pricing is established, and it is shown that bid-ask spreads (a proxy for market liquidity) and yields are closely related to bond characteristics such as issue volume, time to maturity, the inclusion of collective action clauses, and the jurisdiction of issuance. Debt management offices can choose these characteristics in a way that has economically significant and persistent effects on both liquidity and pricing.
Keywords:
Eurobond yields; bid-ask spread; liquidity; debt management; instrument design; Log yield determinant; Eurobond liquidity; market liquidity; debt management office; summary statistics; Bonds; Credit ratings; Collective action clauses; Bond yields; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics Mission (October 15-26-, 2018)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the authorities of the Republic of Uzbekistan in response to their request for technical assistance. The main objective of the mission was to assist the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan (CBU) in improving the collection of statistical data on the balance of payments (BOP), including the adoption of an international transactions reporting system, and to assess progress in implementing the medium-term program for further development of External sector statistics. Along with the successes, the mission noted several shortages in the BOP compilation system. The transfer of the BOP compilation function from the Ministry of the Economy to the CBU, and the transition to Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition standards, have led to a data gap between the BOP compiled by two institutions. It is recommended to update the methodology for calculating the currency and deposits of households component per the mission’s recommendations, considering all possible inflows and outflows of foreign currency in cash by individuals.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; trial BOP; BOP transaction; CBU balance; CBU BOP; remove CBU deposit; transaction code; net profit; foreign currency; central bank; CBU estimate; CBU methodology; CBU reporting; CBU liability; reinvested earnings; CBU trial BOP; CBU requests data; Wages; Currencies; Income; External sector statistics; Middle East and Central Asia; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Requests for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility and Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper examines Republic of Uzbekistan’s Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is significantly impacting Uzbekistan’s economy, reducing growth, and creating additional external and fiscal financing needs. IMF financial assistance under the RCF and the RFI, along with support from other multilateral institutions, will help cover Uzbekistan’s fiscal and balance of payments needs and mitigate the impact on its foreign exchange reserves. It will also provide resources to support increased crisis spending for healthcare, social protection, and public support for affected firms and households. Uzbekistan aims to continue implementing its structural reform agenda, to complete the transformation to a modern, open market economy, and to improve governance and public management. It has committed to safeguard the use and improve the efficiency of its public resources by increasing transparency and accountability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; fiscal policy; state; financing needs; State budget law; Uzbekistan's economy; disbursement of SDR; macroeconomic outlook; Credit; Debt sustainability analysis; Government debt management; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that given its bulging working-age population, creating more and better jobs is the country’s overarching priority. Uzbekistan has already implemented a first wave of important economic reforms, including foreign exchange liberalization, tax reform, and a major upgrade in statistics. Faced with a vast structural reform agenda, the authorities want to prioritize reforms that address the economy’s most damaging distortions first. The main short-term macroeconomic stability challenge is to prevent a credit boom that could generate excessive external deficits and aggravate inflation pressures. A tight monetary stance and moderate fiscal deficits need to be maintained to support macroeconomic stability. Credit growth will need to slow significantly to assure the economy’s external and internal balance. The sustainable development goals are anchoring the country’s inclusive growth agenda, especially on education, health, public infrastructure, and financial inclusion. Moreover, the authorities are redesigning labor policies from scratch to help unskilled and other disadvantaged workers find more and better jobs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; GDP; Uzbekistan; exchange rate; authority; state enterprise reform; policy lending; reform agenda; government finance; labor market; consumer inflation; mining revenue; bank soundness indicator; prudent fiscal policy; reform momentum; authorities' effort; CBU's capacity; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uzbekistan’s external position remains strong. External shocks, which began in 2014, lowered exports, commodity prices, and remittances and contributed to a decline in growth from about 8 percent to 5 percent in 2017. Growth of domestic employment remained below one percent. A loosening of fiscal and monetary policies, along with price and foreign exchange liberalization, caused inflation to pick up in late 2017 and was close to 20 percent in early 2018. International reserves were equivalent to 19 months of imports of goods and services at end-2017 and debt is low. GDP is projected to expand by about 5 percent in 2018–19, but domestic job creation will continue to lag.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fiscal policy; debt; real GDP; Uzbekistan; government; FX market reform; FRD deficit; market FX rate; PPG debt; prudent fiscal policy; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Credit; Central Asia; Global; East Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Staff Report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Request for Waiver of Structural Performance Criterion
International Monetary Fund
The Kyrgyz authorities have maintained macroeconomic discipline in recent years, despite a challenging political environment. This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic activity is rebounding in 2006, with year-over-year real GDP growth of 3.2 percent through September, after a slight contraction in 2005. Inflation is projected to rise slightly to just below 6 percent during 2006. Remonetization has gathered pace in recent years, but the financial system remains relatively shallow by international standards. Comprehensive financial reforms are under way and are slated to gain momentum under the IMF-supported program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz authorities; government; Kyrgyzstan; government authorization; Bank FSAP update mission; staff visit; fund staff; PRGF arrangement; Currencies; Capital spending; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?
Mr. Andrea Bubula
and
Ms. Inci Ötker
This paper provides evidence on the susceptibility of different types of exchange rate regimes to currency crises during 1990-2001. It explores the incidence of crises, identified as episodes of severe exchange market pressure, to seek evidence on whether pegged regimes are more crisis prone than floating regimes and on whether certain types of pegged regimes are more crisis prone than others. The paper finds that pegged regimes, as a whole, have been characterized by a higher incidence of crises than floating regimes, for countries that are more integrated with international capital markets; and that intermediate regimes (mainly soft pegs and tightly-managed floating regimes) have been more crisis prone than both hard pegs and other floating regimes-a view consistent with the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes. The degree of crisis proneness seems to be broadly similar across different types of intermediate regimes.
Keywords:
WP; government; intermediate regime; exchange rate regime; exchange rate; bipolar view; pegged regimes; hard pegs; soft pegs; floats; intermediate regimes; currency crises; exchange market pressure; exchange regime classification; regime data; regime spectrum; regime continuum; floating regime; Exchange rate arrangements; Conventional peg; Crawling peg; Exchange rates; Currencies
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development in the CIS-7 Countries: Bridging the Great Divide
Mr. Gianni De Nicolo
,
Mr. Sami Geadah
, and
Mr. Dmitriy L Rozhkov
This paper documents the great divide in the level of financial development between the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 7 countries and the more advanced economies in transition, in particular those of Central and Eastern Europe and Baltic states. It discusses the roots of financial underdevelopment in the CIS-7 countries by examining the differentials in interest rate spreads between the CIS-7 countries and the transition economies that have achieved faster financial development. The roots of the divide are traced to weaknesses in the institutional infrastructure for financial intermediation, which lead to a combination of low depositor trust in the banking system and high credit risk. High credit risk stems mainly from the poor creditor-rights protection and weak auditing and accounting standards. Financial sector reform strategies that fail to give priority to the resolution of weaknesses in the basic financial infrastructure are unlikely to be successful in letting the CIS-7 countries bridge the great divide.
Keywords:
WP; bank; cost; lending; CEE+B; rate; Financial development; transition economies; transition economy; lending rate; ownership structure; bank size; nonviable bank; intermediation activity; bank concentration; CIS country; Financial sector development; Commercial banks; Credit risk; Credit; Deposit rates; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Azerbaijan Republic: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for Azerbaijan aims to provide a guide to the management of Azerbaijan’s expected natural resource-generated windfall. The paper provides information on Azerbaijan’s endowment of oil and gas deposits and the projected revenue stream, and highlights the common characteristics of policies leading to the mismanagement of natural resource wealth in natural resource-abundant countries. It also outlines a medium- and long-term policy strategy for oil wealth management in Azerbaijan.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; manat; tax rate; Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan State statistics committee; manat broad money; gas revenue; oil GDP; oil revenue; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Natural resources; Demand for money; Baltics; Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 48, No. 1
Mr. Robert P Flood
This paper re-examines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1-3 percent for industrial countries and 11-12 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications.
Keywords:
SP; ERBS syndrome; TFP growth; threshold estimate; ERBS literature; trade liberalization; Inflation; Loans; Bank credit; Tariffs; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central and Eastern Europe