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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Uzbekistan’s growth momentum continues on the back of far-reaching structural reforms to liberalize its economy, favorable commodity prices, and notable increases in financial and income flows. Growth is expected to remain robust at 5.4 percent in 2024, despite the appropriate withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and slowing trading partner growth. In 2025, growth is projected to pick up to around 5½ percent. Needed increases in administered energy prices would temporarily raise inflation to 11.5 percent by end-2024. The government’s planned fiscal consolidation is appropriate and will help reduce inflation and imports while protecting the vulnerable. Further efforts are needed to broaden the tax base, modernize the tax system, improve the efficiency of public spending, and strengthen public financial management. Monetary policy should remain focused on reducing inflation to the central bank’s target and be tightened if energy price reforms spill over to core inflation and inflation expectations. Structural reforms should focus on reducing the state’s role in the economy, promoting women’s participation in the labor market, advancing decarbonization and climate adaptation initiatives, and enhancing governance and transparency, building on progress already made.
Keywords:
central bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan; PPG debt; IMF's classification system; consumer price inflation projection; lending portfolio; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Inflation; Loans; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.
Keywords:
Uzbek soum; authorities' effort; inflation expectation; Uzbek authorities; policy lending; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.
Keywords:
Uzbek soum; authorities' effort; inflation expectation; Uzbek authorities; policy lending; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies. Uzbekistan entered the COVID-19 crisis with relatively strong macro-economic fundamentals.
Keywords:
Policy discussion; government transparency; Policy recommendation; IMF's transparency policy; macro-economic policies; Budget planning and preparation; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
This paper estimates the extent and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in seven Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries using monthly data over the January 1995–May 2020 period. The estimations are performed using the local projections method. We find that the average pass-through in the CCA is about 10 percent on impact and about 25 percent after 12 months. There is no evidence of asymmetric ERPT with respect to the size and the sign of exchange rate changes. The pass-through is broadly unchanged in fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes. There has been a downward shift in the speed of ERPT in the aftermath of the global financial crisis as CCA countries have entered a relatively low inflation environment. The pass-through estimates could be used by the CCA monetary authorities for inflation projections. The absence of non-linearities in the pass-through with respect to the exchange rate regime suggests that transition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes in the region is not likely to impose additional inflationary costs.
Keywords:
WP; confidence interval; CPI inflation; CCA country; inflation environment; currency vis-à-vis; IMF staff estimation; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rate pass-through; Exchange rate arrangements; Inflation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; exchange rate regime; local projections; pass-through in CIS country
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia: the Gravity Model
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
Remitances are an important source of external financing in low- and middle-income countries. This paper uses the gravity model to analyze remittance flows in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries. Standard gravity determinants, such as GDP in sending and recieiving countries, bilateral distance, existence of common borders and common official language, fit remittance flows well. Remittances also react to inflation and exchange rate movements in recipient countries to sustain their purchasing power. In line with the altruism hypothesis, remittances flow to countries with higher age dependency ratio. Remittances are countercyclical and help stabilize outputs in recipient countries. However, global shocks resulting in sharp output losses of sending countries would lead to large volatility and decline of remittance inflows in recipient countries. The results of the analysis can be used to assess the impact of the COVID-19 shock on projected remittance flows into CCA.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; country; remittance flow; international remittances; migration; gravity model; recipient country; country j; bilateral remittance; pair level; sending country; Remittances; Gravity models; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Outward remittances; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Requests for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility and Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper examines Republic of Uzbekistan’s Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is significantly impacting Uzbekistan’s economy, reducing growth, and creating additional external and fiscal financing needs. IMF financial assistance under the RCF and the RFI, along with support from other multilateral institutions, will help cover Uzbekistan’s fiscal and balance of payments needs and mitigate the impact on its foreign exchange reserves. It will also provide resources to support increased crisis spending for healthcare, social protection, and public support for affected firms and households. Uzbekistan aims to continue implementing its structural reform agenda, to complete the transformation to a modern, open market economy, and to improve governance and public management. It has committed to safeguard the use and improve the efficiency of its public resources by increasing transparency and accountability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; fiscal policy; state; financing needs; State budget law; Uzbekistan's economy; disbursement of SDR; macroeconomic outlook; Credit; Debt sustainability analysis; Government debt management; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Given its bulging working-age population, creating more and better jobs is the country’s overarching priority. Uzbekistan has already implemented a first wave of important economic reforms, including foreign exchange liberalization, tax reform, and a major upgrade in statistics. Faced with a vast structural reform agenda, the authorities want to prioritize reforms that address the economy’s most damaging distortions first. The main short-term macroeconomic stability challenge is to prevent a credit boom that could generate excessive external deficits and aggravate inflation pressures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; GDP; Uzbekistan; exchange rate; authority
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that given its bulging working-age population, creating more and better jobs is the country’s overarching priority. Uzbekistan has already implemented a first wave of important economic reforms, including foreign exchange liberalization, tax reform, and a major upgrade in statistics. Faced with a vast structural reform agenda, the authorities want to prioritize reforms that address the economy’s most damaging distortions first. The main short-term macroeconomic stability challenge is to prevent a credit boom that could generate excessive external deficits and aggravate inflation pressures. A tight monetary stance and moderate fiscal deficits need to be maintained to support macroeconomic stability. Credit growth will need to slow significantly to assure the economy’s external and internal balance. The sustainable development goals are anchoring the country’s inclusive growth agenda, especially on education, health, public infrastructure, and financial inclusion. Moreover, the authorities are redesigning labor policies from scratch to help unskilled and other disadvantaged workers find more and better jobs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; GDP; Uzbekistan; exchange rate; authority; state enterprise reform; policy lending; reform agenda; government finance; labor market; consumer inflation; mining revenue; bank soundness indicator; prudent fiscal policy; reform momentum; authorities' effort; CBU's capacity; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the External Sector Statistics Mission (November 20–December 1, 2017)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the Republic of Uzbekistan authorities for technical assistance (TA) on external sector statistics (ESS), and with the support of the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a mission from the IMF Statistics Department (STA) visited Tashkent from November 20 through December 1, 2017. This was the first TA mission on ESS since the Republic of Uzbekistan Presidential Order of September 12, 2017, “On Measures to Ensure the Accessibility and Openness of Economic and Financial Data for the Republic of Uzbekistan” was issued.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; SSC data; CBU responsibility; Republic of Uzbekistan President's order; balance of payments Statistics Department; bank supervision information; BOP transaction; CBU employee; SSC survey; PSA enterprise; CBU authority; economic activity; BOP compilation function; CBU function; External sector statistics; Data collection; Imports; Income; International investment position; BOP unit