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Middle East and Central Asia > Uzbekistan, Republic of

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • IMF Staff Papers x
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Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 48, No. 1
Mr. Robert P Flood
This paper re-examines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1-3 percent for industrial countries and 11-12 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications.
Keywords:
SP; ERBS syndrome; TFP growth; threshold estimate; ERBS literature; trade liberalization; Inflation; Loans; Bank credit; Tariffs; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
Keywords:
SP; central bank; Uzbekistan; inflation target; income elasticity; exchange rate volatility; export demand equation; Uzbek growth puzzle; financing requirement; Uzbek experience; Exchange rates; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Commercial banks; Exports; Baltics; Western Europe; East Asia; Africa