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Africa > Uganda

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Cover FinTech Notes
Tokenization and Financial Market Inefficiencies
Itai Agur
,
German Villegas Bauer
,
Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
,
Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
, and
Brandon Tan
Most financial assets are digital today. Tomorrow, they may be tokenized. Tokenization implies recording and transferring assets on a widely shared and trusted digital ledger that can be programmed. Interest in tokenization is strong and experiments abound, but what are the consequences of this new trend for financial markets? This note introduces a taxonomy and a conceptual framework centered on market inefficiencies to evaluate this question. Some inefficiencies could decline across the asset life cycle. Others would remain, however, and new ones could emerge. Issuing, servicing, and redeeming assets might involve fewer intermediaries and thus become cheaper. The costs of trading assets may also decrease as tokenization lowers some counterparty risks and search frictions and offers flexibility in settlement. Additionally, greater competition among brokers could lower transaction fees. However, tokenization may amplify shocks if it induces institutions to become more interconnected and hold lower liquidity buffers or higher leverage, potentially jeopardizing financial stability. Programs themselves may introduce new risks related to strings of contingent contracts or faulty code. While competition may grow among financial intermediaries, the provision of market infrastructure could become more concentrated due to network effects.
Keywords:
Tokenization; central banks; asset lifecycle; financial markets; financial asset market friction; B. market infrastructure investment externality; financial market inefficiency; IMF Library; Note 2025/001; D. knowledge externality; Bonds; Smart contracts; Securities markets; Liquidity; Blockchain and DLT; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Improving Crop Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa - What Does the East African Data Say
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
Recent micro level data from East Africa is used to benchmark aggregate data and assess the role of agricultural inputs in explaining variation in crop yields on smallholding plots. Fertilizer, improved seeds, protection against erosion and pesticides improve crop yields in Rwanda and Ethiopia, but not Uganda, possibly associated with lack of use there. With all positive yield determinants in place, wheat and maize yields could increase fourfold. The data hints at the negative effect of climate change on yields and the benefits of accompanying measures to mitigate its adverse impact (access to finance and protection against erosion). The adverse effect of crop damage on yields varies between 12/13 percent (Rwanda, Uganda) to 36 percent (Ethiopia). Protection against erosion and investment financing mitigate these effects considerably.
Keywords:
WP; yield; crop; crop yield; Rwanda; Ethiopia; East Africa; inputs; crop damage; yield determinant; Ethiopia crop; aggregate yield data; Agroindustries; Consumption; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Climate change
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Uganda has made impressive development gains and achieved the Millennium Development Goal on halving poverty ahead of schedule. However, going forward, Uganda must create over 600,000 jobs per year to keep up with its growing population, while making further progress on poverty reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. The authorities’ development strategy centers on infrastructure and a nascent oil sector. If investments proceed as planned, growth could range between 6 and 7 percent over the next five years. It is important to adopt an effective fiscal anchor and strengthen the budget process to become more binding for fiscal outcomes. It is also recommended to support human capital development and make growth more inclusive by improving the efficiency of public services and providing adequate budget allocations for social sectors. The consultation also suggests strengthening implementation and institutions of the governance and anti-corruption framework. Ensure that the Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism regime is brought in line with international standards.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; government; infrastructure project; Uganda; management practice; debt metrics; DFID balance of payments module 2; Sta mission; oil sector investment; accommodative monetary policy stance; government intervention; Contingent liabilities; Public investment spending; Government debt management; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Initiating the Stock-Taking of the Public Investment Program
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the initiation of the stock-taking of the public investment program in Uganda. This stock-taking will provide a basis for better budgeting by providing information on the existing multi-year project commitments, and the incremental recurrent costs for operation and maintenance of the assets delivered. It will also identify a basic information structure for each project and subsequently collect a data baseline, providing a foundation for more robust project monitoring. It will aid the management of the overall project portfolio. By identifying the scale of existing multi-annual commitments, it will avoid adding projects to the investment pipeline, which cannot be financed under the Medium Term Expenditure Framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PIP information; project data need; information reliability; input restriction; project template; project information; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Budget planning and preparation; Data collection; Stocks
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations, Recapitalization, and Act Revision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission regarding monetary and foreign exchange operations in Uganda, Bank of Uganda (BOU) recapitalization, and Bank of Uganda Act revision. The presence of sizable precautionary and involuntary reserves and excessive short-end volatility has weakened the transmission mechanism in Uganda. The key challenge remains to enhance monetary and fiscal policy coordination and to ensure that institutional and operational arrangements are robust and conducive to efficient monetary operations framework. The BOU should raise the effectiveness of the monetary and foreign exchange operations framework. To foster further market development there is need to anchor short-term interest rates by using various fine-tuning instruments to ensure improved operational efficiency and strengthen transmission of policy signals across the curve.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial market; balance sheet; capital structure; interest rate; BOU recapitalization securities; reverse repo; short term; foreign exchange; exchange rate; Liquidity; Open market operations; Financial statements; Securities; Liquidity forecasting; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Evaluating the Impact of Non-Financial IMF Programs Using the Synthetic Control Method
Ms. Monique Newiak
and
Tim Willems
We use the Synthetic Control Method to study the effect of IMF advice on economic growth, inflation, and investment. The analysis exploits the existence of IMF programs that do not involve any financing (Policy Support Instruments, “PSIs”). This enables us to focus on the effects of IMF monitoring, advice, and approval (as opposed to direct financial assistance). In addition, countries with non-financial programs are typically not crisis-struck – thereby mitigating the reverse causality problem and facilitating the construction of counterfactuals. Results suggest that treated countries add about 1 percentage point in annual real GDP per capita growth, with inflation being lower by some 3 percentage points per year. While we do not find evidence for an impact on total investment and the resulting capital stock, PSI-treatment does seem to stimulate foreign direct investment.
Keywords:
WP; adverse selection; absolute value; International Monetary Fund; Program-evaluation; Economic growth; Inflation; Investment; IMF operations; IMF loan-participation rate; treatment effect; IMF's executive board; PSI review; traditional IMF program; structural adjustment; causal effect of IMF-program; effectiveness of IMF-program; adoption of an IMF-program; types of IMF-engagement; Stocks; Consumer price indexes; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
A Rebalancing Act for China and Africa: The Effects of China’s Rebalancing on Sub-Saharan Africa’s Trade and Growth
Mr. Roger Nord
and
Ms. Wenjie Chen
How does China’s new growth model affect sub-Saharan Africa? To address this question, this paper first looks at the growing ties between China and Africa; attempts to estimate more precisely the impact on growth through the trade channel; and finally draws some policy implications regarding whether this means an end of the Africa Rising narrative or merely the beginning of a new chapter.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; center; China; commodity; Sub-Saharan Africa; commodity exporter; China's growth; frontier economy; investment-driven commodities exporter; growth experience; FDI flow; sub-Saharan Africa result; idiosyncratic shock; Bloomberg L.P.; commodity price system; Customs dataset; countries in sub-Saharan Africa; Exports; Commodity prices; Foreign direct investment; Direction of trade; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility Transmission along the Yield Curve: The Case of Kenya
Mr. Emre Alper
,
Mr. R. Armando Morales
, and
Mr. Fan Yang
This paper analyzes the degree to which volatility in interbank interest rates leads to volatility in financial instruments with longer maturities (e.g., T-bills) in Kenya since 2012, year in which the monetary policy framework switched to a forward-looking approach, relative to seven other inflation targeting (IT) countries (Ghana, Hungary, Poland, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, and Uganda). Kenya shows strong volatility transmission and high persistence similar to other countries in transition to a more forward-looking monetary policy framework. These results emphasize the importance of a strong commitment to an interbank rate as an operational target and suggest that the central bank could reduce uncertainty in short-term yields significantly by smoothing out the overnight interest rates around the policy rate.
Keywords:
WP; Kenya; rate; Monetary policy implementation; inflation targeting; volatility transmission; interbank rate; overnight rate; headline inflation; inflation objective; money market rate; monetary policy Analysis Unit; interbank rate corridor; inflation target range; interbank market rate; overnight market interest rate; inflation modeling; inflation expectation; Interbank rates; Central bank policy rate; Yield curve; Treasury bills and bonds; Monetary policy frameworks; Africa; Global; interest rate volatility; policy rate change; interbank rate series; year inflation expectation
Cover Departmental Papers
Réforme des subventions énergétiques en Afrique subsaharienne: expériences et enseignements
Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne
and
Mr. Mumtaz Hussain
La réforme des subventions énergétiques est un problème important et difficile pour les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Un nombre relativement important d’études théoriques et empiriques ont été consacrées à cette question. Si ce rapport s’inspire de ces études, il examine toutefois plus précisément la situation des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne de manière à répondre aux questions suivantes: pourquoi est-il important de réduire les subventions énergétiques? Quelles sont les difficultés que pose la réforme des subventions énergétiques? Quel est le meilleur moyen de procéder à une telle réforme? Ce rapport se fonde sur diverses sources d’information sur les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne et notamment des évaluations quantitatives, des enquêtes et des études de cas particulières (mais standardisées).
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; fuel subsidy; average cost; retail price; subsidy reform; unit price
Cover Departmental Papers
Energy Subsidy Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experiences and Lessons
Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne
and
Mr. Mumtaz Hussain
The reform of energy subsidies is an important but challenging issue for sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. There is a relatively large theoretical and empirical literature on this issue. While this paper relies on that literature, too, it tailors its discussion to SSA countries to respond to the following questions: Why it is important to reduce energy subsidies? What are the difficulties involved in energy subsidy reform? How best can a subsidy reform be implemented? This paper uses various sources of information on SSA countries: quantitative assessments, surveys, and individual (but standardized) case studies.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; fuel subsidy; average cost; retail price; subsidy reform; unit price; SSA country; Energy subsidy; fixed charge; federal government; opportunity cost; Energy subsidies; Fuel prices; Tariffs; Electricity; Inflation; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; West Africa