Africa > Uganda

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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Economic recovery continues to gain strength following a rapid decline in inflation, favorable agriculture and robust industrial and services activity. Fiscal financing and foreign portfolio flows are facing headwinds amid tight global financial conditions and the passage of the Anti-Homosexuality Act in May 2023. The authorities are implementing fiscal consolidation to contain vulnerabilities, maintaining a moderately tight monetary stance in the face of upside risks to inflation and undertaking reforms to improve governance and reduce corruption. All September 2023 quantitative performance criteria were met, as well as most June 2023 indicative targets (ITs). Preliminary data suggest that the December 2023 IT for net credit to government and inflation were met but the IT for net international reserves was missed. Four out of seven structural benchmarks for the current review were met on or before test dates, and one was completed with a delay.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Uganda’s Second and Third Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Access. The Ugandan authorities are persevering in their reforms despite facing multiple shocks from an unfavorable external environment and new public health challenges. The authorities remain committed to implementing reforms supported by the ECF. Maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving budget composition, and reducing government financing needs will help boost private sector growth and improve people’s livelihoods. Continued resolute and timely implementation of structural reforms, including anticorruption and governance measures, remains key for the success of the program. The Ebola outbreak, rising security challenges, and further spillovers from the war in Ukraine represent the main risks. Uganda’s moderate level of public debt and continued access to concessional financing would provide space to achieve program objectives. A structural benchmark on the asset declaration regime was converted into a prior action for the review and has been met.
Mr. Niko A Hobdari
,
Vina Nguyen
,
Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
, and
Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero
Fiscal decentralization is becoming a pressing issue in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting demands for a greater local voice in spending decisions and efforts to strengthen social cohesion. Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to distill the lessons for an effective fiscal decentralization reform, focusing on the macroeconomic aspects. The main findings for sub-Saharan African countries that have decentralized, based on an empirical analysis and four case studies (Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda), are as follows: • Determinants and effectiveness: Empirical results suggest that (1) the major driving forces behind fiscal decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa include efforts to defuse ethnic conflicts, the initial level of income, and the urban-ization rate, whereas strength of democracy is not an important determi-nant for decentralization; and (2) decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa is associated with higher growth in the presence of stronger institutions. • Spending assignments: The allocation of spending across levels of gov-ernment in the four case studies is broadly consistent with best practice. However, in Uganda, unlike in the other three case studies, subnational governments have little flexibility to make spending decisions as a result of a deconcentrated rather than a devolved system of government. • Own revenue: The assignment of taxing powers is broadly in line with best practice in the four case studies, with the bulk of subnational revenue coming from property taxes and from fees for local services. However, own revenues are a very small fraction of subnational spending, reflecting weak cadaster systems and a high level of informality in the economy.
International Monetary Fund
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Uganda’s 2013 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument, Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument and cancellation of Current Policy Support Instrument. Driven mainly by investment and trade, growth has recovered to about 5 percent, a stronger than expected rebound from the low 3½ percent expansion registered last year. Fast implementation of road construction, the start of operations of the Bujagali hydropower plant, and a good harvest boosted aggregate demand. Envisaged public finance management reforms are set to address the problems of persistent under budgeting, arrears accumulation, and failure to sanction financial irregularities.
Mr. Michael Keen
Issues of taxation and development, which have long been a central concern of the IMF, have attracted wider and renewed interest in the last few years. This paper reflects on three broad lessons of experience: that developing countries differ vastly in tax matters, and in ways that are less than fully understood; that the history of ‘big ideas’ in guiding tax reform for developing countries is decidedly mixed; and that the value of the emphasis often placed in this context on ‘informality’ is decidedly limited. It also asks whether ideas of ‘state building’ emphasized in some of the recent literature are likely to lead to practical advice much different from that commonly offered now.
International Monetary Fund
The Fund has long played a lead role in supporting developing countries’ efforts to improve their revenue mobilization. This paper draws on that experience to review issues and good practice, and to assess prospects in this key area.
William Joseph Crandall
This technical note focuses on the concept of autonomy and describes why it is important in public administration. There has been a tendency for governments to increase the autonomy of their departments and agencies. The basic principle is that such autonomy can lead to better performance by removing impediments to effective and efficient management while maintaining appropriate accountability and transparency. This note explains how autonomy is relevant for revenue administration and what is the range of autonomy currently practiced. The paper also describes key measures of autonomy in revenue administration.
Ms. Maureen Kidd
and
William Joseph Crandall
Revenue authorities (RAs) have been adopted by some countries as an alternative delivery model for improved revenue administration. They are sometimes seen as a possible solution to problems such as low rates of tax compliance, ineffective tax administration staff, and corruption. The paper discusses RAs as a governance model, from the perspective of revenue administration and the almost universal desire to improve performance and compliance with the law. It compiles and analyses features of the model, examines reasons why revenue authorities were established, and explores the extent to which countries have evaluated the success of the model. It also assesses countries' own perceptions about how this model may have contributed to tax administration reform. Further, the paper discusses data collection difficulties in carrying out an assessment using econometric analysis, and the problem of attributing changes in performance to a particular governance model. The paper concludes that while there are subjective perceptions among countries with revenue authorities that their model has led to improved revenue administration and has spurred modernization, there is no objective analysis that countries with RAs have performed better in this regard than countries without RAs.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper reviews key trends in Haiti’s fiscal performance over the past decade and discusses various options for strengthening the fiscal system. It suggests that a key challenge will be to generate adequate resources to support development, which requires an increase in outlays on social programs, security, and infrastructure investment to at least the levels observed in other low-income countries. The paper reviews revenue trends and key features of the tax system. It also illustrates that Haiti’s public sector employment is far smaller than in other countries.