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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 12 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues Paper analyzes potential macro-financial risks from cross-sectoral exposures in Uganda by leveraging on the Balance Sheet Approach framework. It presents evidence on the macro-financial linkages in Uganda using the Network Map and Financial Input-Output approaches. On the one hand, the Network Map analysis shows the cross-sectoral exposures in which potential build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities may arise. On the other hand, the Financial Input-Output tool simulates relevant scenarios in the context of Ugandan economy such as currency depreciation and increases in government interest payments on debt held by banks. The purpose of the scenario exercises is to strengthen the monitoring of the developments in key economic sectors in Uganda. While the banking sector, which dominates the Ugandan financial system, remains fundamentally sound, there are pockets of vulnerabilities resulting from the growing sovereign-bank nexus and cross-border exposures of the Near Field Communication technology sector which require close vigilance.
Keywords:
B. monetary policy framework; reducing job search time; policy rate; youth employment trend; NFC sector; C. youth employment trend; Policy rate response; bank Lending rate; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rates; Women; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines tax policy and administrative changes in Eastern African Community (EAC) countries with a view to benchmark Kenya’s experience and draw lessons for future tax reforms. Using granular data from a new IMF database on tax measures announced during 1988–2022, it concludes that EAC policymakers frequently changed their tax system and administrations by announcing tax packages that typically consisted of measures to narrow the tax base and strengthen tax administrative practices. Kenya appeared to be one of the EAC countries that most frequently announced and introduced such changes, which might have played a significant role in explaining the reduction in the tax-to-gross domestic product ratio experienced by the country since 2014. The conclusions of this note are subject to caveats, as the frequency of tax measures is not an indicator of the actual revenue impact of such measures. Looking at the frequency of changes, however, can help identify reform episodes providing a sense of their duration and comprehensiveness.
Keywords:
public sector balance sheet methodology; exchange rate shock; public sector balance sheet vulnerability; public sector balance sheet approach; HM Treasury; EAC policymaker; Tax-to-GDP ratio; Financial statements; Exchange rates; Public sector; Fiscal risks; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Brandon Buell
,
Reda Cherif
,
Carissa Chen
,
Jiawen Tang
, and
Nils Wendt
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
Keywords:
model prediction; quantile plot; ML model; GDP YoY; data variable; YoY percent change; Factor models; Machine learning; Time series analysis; Spot exchange rates; Mobile banking; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth
International Monetary Fund
We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
Keywords:
WP; natural resource; DD effect; exchange rate appreciation; open economy; DD shock; real exchange rate; Dutch disease; growth; exchange rate overvaluation; exchange rate volatility; learning by doing; exchange rate intervention; DD phenomenon; undervalued exchange rate; Dutch disease effects; overvalued exchange rate; DD model; Real exchange rates; Natural resources; Exchange rates; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2006 Article IV Consultation and Staff Report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation, First Review of the Policy Support Instrument, Request for Waiver of Assessment Criteria, and Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument: Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that an acute electricity crisis threatens Uganda’s macroeconomic performance. The regional drought in 2005/06 reduced Uganda’s already inadequate hydropower-generating capacity, resulting in a production gap of nearly one-half of demand. The authorities have requested a new three-year policy support instrument in support of their near- and medium-term policies. The authorities’ main objectives are to sustain macroeconomic stability while tackling the ongoing electricity crisis and addressing other infrastructure deficiencies to alleviate existing constraints on growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; infrastructure bottleneck; PSI-supported program; policy; GDP; Executive Board discussion; government budget strategy; IMF's Policy Support Instrument; Arrears; Infrastructure; Debt relief; Poverty reduction; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover The Macroeconomic Management of Foreign Aid
The Macroeconomic Management of Foreign Aid
Opportunities and Pitfalls
Boriana Yontcheva
,
Mr. Peter Isard
,
Mr. Leslie Lipschitz
, and
Mr. Alex Mourmouras

Abstract

Relatively slow progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by their 2015 target date has added urgency to the challenge of reducing global poverty. The authors of this new book--who include scholars from the IMF, World Bank, Oxford University, and the Center for Global Development--argue that the MDGs cannot be achieved without a substantial scaling up of foreign aid. They show how such increased aid flows must be managed effectively to ensure the greatest benefit. And they offer analysis and insight on a variety of macroeconomic policy implications that both donors and recipients should consider.

Keywords:
SEM; GDP; country; early-impact aid; recipient country policy; poverty reduction; natural resource; international community; Real exchange rates; Poverty reduction; Aid flows; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; East Asia; Eastern Europe; GDP shock; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, Request for Waiver of Performance Criterion, and Extension of Arrangement: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on Uganda’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), Request for Waiver of Performance Criterion, and Extension of Arrangement. Performance relative to the program performance criteria and benchmarks has generally been satisfactory. All quantitative performance criteria for December 2004, with the exception of that on the accumulation of domestic arrears, were observed. The structural performance criterion and two of the four benchmarks through March 2005 were also met.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; IMF executive board Completes Fifth Review; PRGF arrangement; authorities' effort; anti-corruption strategy; authorities' resolve; Poverty reduction; Poverty reduction strategy; Global; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financing Uganda'S Poverty Reduction Strategy: Is Aid Causing More Pain Than Gain?
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
Uganda's market-friendly development strategy and poverty reduction agenda have attracted large financial inflows, including aid. During 2000-02, concerns about a possible aid-induced Dutch disease were heightened by widening macroeconomic imbalances and an upward trend in the real effective exchange rate (REER). This paper shows that the REER remained broadly stable during a 10-year period and nontraditional exports increased remarkably, contrary to the predictions of the Dutch disease model. Also, economic growth was strong. This good performance is attributed to sound macroeconomic policies and important structural reforms, which have allowed an increased use of available production factors.
Keywords:
WP; right; Uganda; ODA; terms of trade; REER; Foreign aid; exchange rates; economic growth; and poverty; ODA flow; terms of trade shock; Uganda shilling; savings-investment balance; ODA inflow; Real effective exchange rates; Exports; Dutch disease; Real exchange rates; Poverty reduction strategy
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 33, Issue 16
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
In July, the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) released the findings of its review of the IMF-World Bank’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) process and the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF).The main aims of the wide-ranging evaluation were to determine whether these two initiatives have been implemented according to original expectations and whether the IMF has been sufficiently supportive of the broader PRSP process. David Goldsbrough, Acting Director of the IEO, spoke with Jacqueline Irving of the IMF Survey about the report’s findings.
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; Rodrigo de Rato; IMF S; fund Facility; equivalent amount; growth Facility; IMF survey; IMF Deputy managing director; Poverty reduction strategy; Domestic debt; Exchange rate stability; Monetary base; Consumption; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Policy Discussion Papers
Challenges in Expanding Development Assistance
Mr. Peter S. Heller
and
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
This paper highlights the macro and microeconomic challenges associated with success of the effort to mobilize 0.7 percent of GNP for official development assistance (ODA). To promote achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, enhanced ODA must be as productive as possible. In weighing the distribution of enhanced ODA among countries, the paper emphasizes the need to limit potentially adverse “real transfer effects.” It recommends a multi-pronged approach to ODA that includes, inter alia, in addition to direct bilateral transfers, enhanced use of trust funds and the financing of global public goods.
Keywords:
PDP; recipient country; country partnership; donor country; low income; transition country; ODA; poverty; absorptive capacity; international public goods; country market; distributional criterion; public goods; commitments of the European Union; countries of the world; Personal income; Real exchange rates; Extra-budgetary funds; Global