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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Structural Fiscal Policy on Female Labor Force Participation in OECD Countries
Miyoko Asai
,
Qiaoe Chen
,
Mr. Jiro Honda
,
Xingwei Hu
, and
Qianqian Zhang
This paper examines the role of structural fiscal policies to promote female labor force participation and reduce gender gaps in labor markets in 26 OECD countries from 2000 to 2019. As both female labor force participation and many explanatory/control variables clearly exhibit non-stationarity (potentially leading to spurious regression results), we employ a panel vector error-correction model, in contrast with most previous empirical studies on this matter. Our analyses confirm statistically significant positive impacts of government spending on (1) early childcare and education, (2) active labor market programs, and (3) unemployment benefits, all of which would help encourage women to enter the labor force, while (4) an increase in relative tax rate on second earner could have negative impact on female labor force participation.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Gender; Labor Force; OECD; panel unit root; panel vector error-correction model; robustness test; panel VECM result; female LFPR; age group; regression analysis; positive correlation; standard deviation; Women; Active labor market policies; Gender diversity; Unemployment benefits; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Brandon Buell
,
Reda Cherif
,
Carissa Chen
,
Jiawen Tang
, and
Nils Wendt
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
Keywords:
model prediction; quantile plot; ML model; GDP YoY; data variable; YoY percent change; Factor models; Machine learning; Time series analysis; Spot exchange rates; Mobile banking; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
VAR meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries
Ms. Grace B Li
,
Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell
,
Mr. Christopher S Adam
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
, and
Mr. Peter J Montiel
VAR methods suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in low-income countries (LICs). But are structural VARs identified via short-run restrictions capable of detecting a transmission mechanism when one exists, under research conditions typical of these countries? Using small DSGEs as data-generating processes, we assess the impact on VAR-based inference of short data samples, measurement error, high-frequency supply shocks, and other features of the LIC environment. The impact of these features on finite-sample bias appears to be relatively modest when identification is valid—a strong caveat, especially in LICs. However, many of these features undermine the precision of estimated impulse responses to monetary policy shocks, and cumulatively they suggest that “insignificant” results can be expected even when the underlying transmission mechanism is strong.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; interest rate; transmission mechanism; Monetary Transmission Mechanism; Low Income Countries; Vector Autoregression Methods; Monte Carlo Methods; monetary policy shock; LIC environment; GDP gap; inflation rate; interest rate target; estimation environment; monetary policy effect; research environment; LIC context; features of the estimation environment; exchange-rate elasticity; monetary policy rule; Vector autoregression; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; Structural vector autoregression; Supply shocks; Africa
Cover Can the Poor Influence Policy? Participatory Poverty Assessments in the Developing World
Can the Poor Influence Policy? Participatory Poverty Assessments in the Developing World
Ms. Caroline M Kende-Robb

Abstract

The second edition of this book outline show to include the poor using the Participatory Poverty Assessment (PPA) method. This method was developed by the World Bank in partnerships with NGOs, governments, and academic institutions, and has been implemented in over 60 countries worldwide duringthe last decade. This book also draws on new PPA case examples. Joint publication with the World Bank.

Keywords:
BOOK; poverty assessment; policy; government; country; poverty analysis; research team; PPA result; government poverty agency; PPA impact; Poverty reduction; Poverty reduction strategy; Poverty reduction and development; Budget planning and preparation; Africa; Eastern Europe; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
On Improving Public Expenditure Policies for the Poor: Major Informational Requirements
Mr. Nigel A Chalk
and
Mr. Ehtisham Ahmad
An improvement in the quality of public expenditures is needed in many countries, given binding macroeconomic and fiscal constraints, and poverty reduction and distributional objectives. This process involves a reassessment of methodology used for this purpose by countries and international agencies, and the data needed for improved decision making. This paper reviews methods that might be used by international agencies, such as the Fund and the Bank, jointly with a survey of data currently available, required improvements in the data currently available, and required improvements in the information base. The scope for improvements in governments' expenditure policy making is also considered.
Keywords:
WP; country; pay; government; public expenditure; aggregate expenditure ratio; expenditure data; consumption pattern; standard of living; national defense; payroll data; expenditure profile; public goods; profile of a country; country desk; government accounting system; expenditure scale; Government finance statistics; Income; Defense spending; Sub-Saharan Africa