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International Monetary Fund
and
World Bank
The outlook for Low-Income Countries (LICs) is gradually improving, but they face persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including liquidity challenges due to high debt service. There is significant heterogeneity among LICs: the poorest and most fragile countries have faced deep scarring from the pandemic, while those with diversified economies and Frontier Markets are faring better. Achieving inclusive growth and building resilience are essential for LICs to converge with more advanced economies and meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Building resilience will also be critical in the context of a more shock-prone world. This requires both decisive domestic actions, including expanding and better targeting Social Safety Nets (SSNs), and substantial external support, including adequate financing, policy advice, capacity development and, where needed, debt relief. The Fund is further stepping up its support through targeted policy advice, capacity building, and financing.
Mr. Younes Zouhar
,
Jon Jellema
,
Nora Lustig
, and
Mohamed Trabelsi
This paper explores the role of public expenditure in fostering inclusive growth. It starts with a presentation of salient features of public expenditure. Then, it lays out an analytical framework that describes the channels through which public expenditure affects inequality and poverty in the short and long term. Based on a review of the empirical literature, it discusses the policy options. Finally, the paper assesses the role of key factors such as the initial conditions, and the institutions, in shaping the inclusive spending policies.
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
Recent micro level data from East Africa is used to benchmark aggregate data and assess the role of agricultural inputs in explaining variation in crop yields on smallholding plots. Fertilizer, improved seeds, protection against erosion and pesticides improve crop yields in Rwanda and Ethiopia, but not Uganda, possibly associated with lack of use there. With all positive yield determinants in place, wheat and maize yields could increase fourfold. The data hints at the negative effect of climate change on yields and the benefits of accompanying measures to mitigate its adverse impact (access to finance and protection against erosion). The adverse effect of crop damage on yields varies between 12/13 percent (Rwanda, Uganda) to 36 percent (Ethiopia). Protection against erosion and investment financing mitigate these effects considerably.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This third edition of the Global Monitoring Report examines the commitments and actions of donors, international financial institutions, and developing countries to implement the Millennium Declaration, signed by 189 countries in 2000. Many countries are off track to meet the Millennium Development Goals, particularly in Africa and South Asia, but new evidence is emerging that higher-quality aid and a better policy environment are accelerating progress in some countries, and that the benefits of this progress are reaching poor families. This report takes a closer look at the donors' 2005 commitments to aid and debt relief, and argues that rigorous, sustained monitoring is needed to ensure that they are met and deliver results, and to prevent the cycle of accumulating unsustainable debt from repeating itself. International financial institutions need to focus on development outcomes rather than inputs, and strengthen their capacity to manage for results in developing countries.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The year 2005 marks an important juncture for development as the international community takes stock of implementation of the Millennium Declaration—signed by 189 countries in 2000—and discusses how progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) can be accelerated. The MDGs set clear targets for reducing poverty and other human deprivations and for promoting sustainable development. What progress has been made toward these goals, and what should be done to accelerate it? What are the responsibilities of developing countries, developed countries, and international financial institutions? Global Monitoring Report 2005 addresses these questions. This report, the second in an annual series assessing progress on the MDGs and related development outcomes, has a special focus on Sub-Saharan Africa—the region that is farthest from the development goals and faces the toughest challenges in accelerating progress. The report finds that without rapid action to accelerate progress, the MDGs will be seriously jeopardized—especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is falling short on all the goals. It calls on the international community to seize the opportunities presented by the increased global attention to development to build momentum for the MDGs. The report presents in-depth analysis of the agenda and priorities for action. It discusses improvements in policies and governance that developing countries need to make to achieve stronger economic growth and scale up human development and relevant key services. It examines actions that developed countries need to take to provide more and better development aid and to reform their trade policies to improve market access for developing country exports. And it evaluates how international financial institutions can strengthen and sharpen their support for this agenda. Global Monitoring Report 2005 is essential reading for development practitioners and those interested in international affairs.

Mr. Markus Haacker

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS. The paper highlights that the mortality and morbidity associated with AIDS make it unlike most other types of sickness and disease. The paper describes the most common approaches used in accounting for growth in the context of an HIV/AIDS epidemic. The impact of HIV/AIDS on education and the accumulation of human capital is discussed. The paper also discusses the impact of HIV/AIDS on the public sector, and elaborates certain demographic events specific to the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

One result of the IMF's move to increased openness are independent external evaluations of important IMF policies, to complement its own in-house evaluations. This paper, prepared by a team of evaluators, includes in addition to the external evaluation, a statement by Bernd Esdar, Chairman of the Executive Director's group concerned with external evaluations; the summing up by IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus of the Executive Board's discussion of the report; the terms of reference; and the IMF staff's response to the evaluation.

Mr. Nigel A Chalk
and
Mr. Ehtisham Ahmad
An improvement in the quality of public expenditures is needed in many countries, given binding macroeconomic and fiscal constraints, and poverty reduction and distributional objectives. This process involves a reassessment of methodology used for this purpose by countries and international agencies, and the data needed for improved decision making. This paper reviews methods that might be used by international agencies, such as the Fund and the Bank, jointly with a survey of data currently available, required improvements in the data currently available, and required improvements in the information base. The scope for improvements in governments' expenditure policy making is also considered.