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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

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Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring-Summer 2019
The Spring-Summer 2019 issue of the IMF Research Perspectives explores how technology deals with old questions. Articles discuss the ways technological progress and the increased availability of data have helped in some areas, while presenting new challenges for analyzing various matters. The issue also includes an interview with Gita Gopinath, the new director of the IMF Research Department.
Keywords:
IRB; economy; heightened economic risk; investor; energy consumption; asset price; work agenda; investor sentiment; dream job; modeling work; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Consumption; Asset prices; Personal income; Robotics; Income; IMF research perspective; measuring sentiment; director of the research DepartmentTechnological change; future of work; impact of Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5.24 percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in private consumption. Annual core inflation increased to 4.75 percent in May, from very depressed levels, mainly fueled by the shilling depreciation pass-through. The current account deficit is set to widen to about 9 percent of GDP reflecting increasing capital goods imports, but international reserves remain adequate. The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5.75 percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6.25 percent over the medium-term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; core inflation; current account; government; real GDP; medium term inflation target; inflation targeting framework; East AFRITAC; inflation consultation clause; authorities' monetary policy; Inflation; Infrastructure; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are African Households Heterogeneous Agents?: Stylized Facts on Patterns of Consumption, Employment, Income and Earnings for Macroeconomic Modelers
Ms. Louise Fox
This paper reviews the evidence on how households in Sub-Saharan Africa segment along consumption, income and earning dimensions relevant for quantitative macroeconomic policy models which incorporate heterogeneity. Key findings include the importance of home-grown food in the income and consumption of house-holds well up the income distribution, the lack of formal financial inclusion for all but the richest households, and the importance of non-wage income. These stylized facts suggest that an externally-generated macroeconomic shock and the short-term policy response would mainly affect the behavior and welfare of these richer urban households, who are also more likely to have the means to cope. Middle class and poor households, especially in rural areas, should be insulated from these external shocks but vulnerable to a wide range of structural factors in the economy as well as idiosyncratic shocks.
Keywords:
WP; wage employment; wage income; labor market; union wage effect; wage job; Sub-Saharan Africa; Inequality; macroeconomics; household heterogeneity; Macro Models; Macroeconomic Stabalization; Labor Economics; Informal Labor Market; Mobility; off season; wage earnings variation; low income; wage sector; Income; Personal income; Wages; Employment; Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Productivity, Transportation Costs, and Barriers to Intersectoral Mobility in Structural Transformation
Cem Karayalcin
and
Mihaela Pintea
The process of economic development is characterized by substantial reallocations of resources across sectors. In this paper, we construct a multi-sector model in which there are barriers to the movement of labor from low-productivity traditional agriculture to modern sectors. With the barrier in place, we show that improvements in productivity in modern sectors (including agriculture) or reductions in transportation costs may lead to a rise in agricultural employment and through terms-oftrade effects may harm subsistence farmers if the traditional subsistence sector is larger than a critical level. This suggests that policy advice based on the earlier literature needs to be revised. Reducing barriers to mobility (through reductions in the cost of skill acquisition and institutional changes) and improving the productivity of subsistence farmers needs to precede policies designed to increase the productivity of modern sectors or decrease transportation costs.
Keywords:
WP; subsistence farming; terms of trade; Structural transformation; Subsistence agriculture; multi-sector models; Economic development; Transportation costs; transportation cost; agriculture sector; productivity improvement; modern agriculture; productivity difference; excess demand; improvement result; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Transportation; Manufacturing; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth
International Monetary Fund
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Keywords:
PP; GDP growth; wage; financial crisis; total factor productivity; labor market; tax burden; fiscal policy; Fiscal consolidation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?
Mr. Jean-Claude Berthélemy
and
Mr. Ludvig Söderling
This paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor reallocation and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach "Asian tiger" levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.
Keywords:
WP; terms of trade; Africa; growth; productivity; education; labor reallocation; diversification; reallocation effect; GDP ratio; CFA franc; production function; productivity gain; growth scenario; reallocation openness; diversification index; TFP gain; diversification gain; Cote d'Ivoire II; Human capital; Total factor productivity; Exports; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is Policy Ownership An Operational Concept?
Mr. James M. Boughton
and
Mr. Alex Mourmouras
IMF lending is generally conditional on specified policies and outcomes. These conditions usually are negotiated compromises between policies initially favored by the Fund and by the country's authorities. In some cases the authorities might be satisfied enough with the outcome to take responsibility for it ("own" it) even though it was not their original preference. In other cases, they might accept the outcome only to obtain financing, in which case weak commitment might lead to poor implementation. This paper reviews the theoretical basis for the importance of ownership, summarizes what is known about its empirical effects, and suggests a strategy for strengthening it.
Keywords:
WP; recipient country government; government need; government decision-makers; policy reaction function; ownership; IMF; conditionality; common agency models; State capture; representative government; recipient government; central bank carrying out; government ownership; government failure; country's authorities; Multilateral development institutions; Structural reforms
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 1972
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper discusses the role of the IMF in financial stability and planning in world trade. The paper highlights that the IMF was set up to assist in the maintenance of an international monetary system that is conducive to the expansion of international trade. To this end, the IMF was provided with both a regulatory and financial role. In the execution of these functions, the IMF has gradually evolved as a center for international financial cooperation and a source of advice and technical assistance to its members.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; cooperative; tariff; world price; volumes XV; business saving; savings institution; government savings; Credit; Tariffs; Currencies; Exchange rates; East Africa; Africa; West Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Southeast Asia; North America; Western Europe; South Asia