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Paola Giuliano
and
Antonio Spilimbergo
A growing body of work has shown that aggregate shocks affect the formation of preferences and beliefs. This article reviews evidence from sociology, social psychology, and economics to assess the relevance of aggregate shocks, whether the period in which they are experienced matters, and whether they alter preferences and beliefs permanently. We review the literature on recessions, inflation experiences, trade shocks, and aggregate non-economic shocks including migrations, wars, terrorist attacks, pandemics, and natural disasters. For each aggregate shock, we discuss the main empirical methodologies, their limitations, and their comparability across studies, outlining possible mechanisms whenever available. A few conclusions emerge consistently across the reviewed papers. First, aggregate shocks impact many preferences and beliefs, including political preferences, risk attitudes, and trust in institutions. Second, the effect of shocks experienced during young adulthood is stronger and longer lasting. Third, negative aggregate economic shocks generally move preferences and beliefs to the right of the political spectrum, while the effects of non-economic adverse shocks are more heterogeneous and depend on the context.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper revisits Rwanda’s options to create fiscal space to meet long-term development challenges. It examines strategies and options for a credible and comprehensive domestic revenue mobilization. The paper analyzes the driving factors of past reform successes and use an original dataset to highlight the benefits of implementing comprehensive tax reforms over selective reforms. The paper concludes that selective measures tend to yield protracted loss of revenue while measures implemented comprehensively lead to increases in revenue in the medium term. This stresses the need for an integrated approach to fiscal policy reform coordination to maximize long-term revenue benefits. For Rwanda, a comprehensive strategy for increasing tax revenues by adjusting rates, broadening the domestic tax base, improving tax compliance, and curbing tax evasion is the way forward. The strategy should shift higher tax burden from low-income households to higher income wealth cohorts with the view to advancing distributional fairness against growing inequality.
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
Recent micro level data from East Africa is used to benchmark aggregate data and assess the role of agricultural inputs in explaining variation in crop yields on smallholding plots. Fertilizer, improved seeds, protection against erosion and pesticides improve crop yields in Rwanda and Ethiopia, but not Uganda, possibly associated with lack of use there. With all positive yield determinants in place, wheat and maize yields could increase fourfold. The data hints at the negative effect of climate change on yields and the benefits of accompanying measures to mitigate its adverse impact (access to finance and protection against erosion). The adverse effect of crop damage on yields varies between 12/13 percent (Rwanda, Uganda) to 36 percent (Ethiopia). Protection against erosion and investment financing mitigate these effects considerably.
International Monetary Fund
Uganda’s National Development Plan (NDP) stipulates medium-term strategic direction, development priorities, and implementation strategies. It also details Uganda’s current development status, challenges, and opportunities. The contribution of this NDP to the socioeconomic transformation will be demonstrated by improved employment levels, higher per capita income, improved labor force distribution in line with sectoral GDP shares, substantially improved human development and gender equality indicators, and the country’s competitiveness position, among others. The impressive GDP growth performance has contributed to a significant reduction in poverty levels.
International Monetary Fund
This report summarizes the Annual Progress Report of Uganda on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, which highlights the progress and outcomes of implementation of the Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP) policies and programs. It provides assessments on achievements and problematic areas in implementing the PEAP as well as recommendations on the corrective measures to meet Uganda's poverty reduction targets. It also reviews governance and security, and discusses ways to increase the ability of the poor to raise their income, and to improve the quality of life of the poor.

Abstract

This volume, edited by Michel A. Dessart and Roland E. Ubogu, records the presentations made and discussions held during the Inaugural Seminar of the Joint Africa Institute (JAI). The JAI was established in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, by the African Development Bank, the IMF, and the World Bank to meet the pressing training needs of the African continent. The participants discussed four main topics: the changing role of the state, governance, and new capacity requirements; the challenge of achieving macroeconomic stability in Africa; the requirement for capacity building in Africa; and the role of international financial institutions in capacity building in Africa. The seminar was held in November 1999, but the topics and recommendations of the seminar remain current and of particular importance today. The seminar was held in English and French, and both language versions are contained in this volume. 240 pp. 2001