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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts about food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. The paper describes regional aspects of Nigeria’s food insecurity and compares the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 and the war in Ukraine on food security in Nigeria and other countries. It also provides an overview of agricultural production and consumption in Nigeria. The paper investigates the drivers of food security using an empirical cross-country framework including demand, supply, and price factors, and offers thoughts on policies to improve agricultural yields and production. The important role of inputs is evident in the policy experience of comparator countries. Nigeria has achieved a substantial increase in agricultural production associated with its policies but some have been less successful. Import dependency for key staples has not fallen and the cost of these agricultural products remains driven by international prices. Further, central bank credit to the agricultural sector has not succeeded in increasing production beyond the stimulus of high rainfall and high food prices.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper on Uganda discusses Central Bank Transparency Code Review. The Bank of Uganda (BOU) is implementing transparency practices that are broadly aligned with the good practices for central banks. The BOU continues to improve communication of its monetary policy framework in a transparent manner, but there is room to enhance transparency by disclosing policy deliberations. The BOU has improved macroprudential policies and the analytical framework aimed at mitigating systemic risks, but decisions leading to macroprudential actions are not explained. The anti-corruption legal framework in Uganda applies to the BOU, however no details are disclosed in the public domain as to how it is applied and enforced with respect to the BOU. The BOU should consider compiling and developing a policy on confidentiality that includes the reasons underlying the choices it has made on disclosure or nondisclosure. The mission found that BOU’s transparency practices largely conform to various dimensions of transparency as information is disseminated through several channels.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes investment strategy to foster structural transformation in Rwanda. Over the past 15 years, Rwanda has transformed its economy by moving workers out of agriculture into mostly services and some industry. This has been accomplished through strong public investment flows and efficient public investment management. Going forward, the challenge is whether the private sector can complement the infrastructure assets put in place by the public sector and maintain economic momentum. It will also require continued effort by the government in raising education standards, better matching qualifications offered to students to those most in demand by employers, and lowering electricity and transportation costs.
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Yan Ji
,
Robert M. Townsend
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
We develop a micro-founded general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to identify pertinent constraints to financial inclusion. We evaluate quantitatively the policy impacts of relaxing each of these constraints separately, and in combination, on GDP and inequality. We focus on three dimensions of financial inclusion: access (determined by the size of participation costs), depth (determined by the size of collateral constraints resulting from limited commitment), and intermediation efficiency (determined by the size of interest rate spreads and default possibilities due to costly monitoring). We take the model to a firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey for six countries at varying degrees of economic development—three low-income countries (Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique), and three emerging market countries (Malaysia, the Philippines, and Egypt). The results suggest that alleviating different financial frictions have a differential impact across countries, with country-specific characteristics playing a central role in determining the linkages and tradeoffs between inclusion, GDP, inequality, and the distribution of gains and losses.
Mr. Kevin J Carey
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
, and
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recently shown signs of improvement, but is still short of levels needed to attain the Millennium Development Goals. Economists have placed increasing emphasis on understanding the policies that promote sustained jumps in medium-term growth, and the paper applies this approach to African countries. The evidence presented finds an important growth-supporting role for particular kinds of institutions and policies, but also highlights aspects of growth that are still not well understood. The paper includes policy guidance for ensuring that the poor benefit from growth.

International Monetary Fund
This paper assesses Uganda’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). The program for 2002/03–2004/05, which could be supported by a new PRGF arrangement, aims to increase real GDP growth to about 6½ percent a year on average, while holding annual inflation at about 3½ percent. Monetary and exchange rate policies will focus on maintaining stability in light of sizable sterilization operations. The authorities will rely on market-based monetary instruments and will adhere to a flexible exchange rate policy.
Mr. Saleh M. Nsouli
and
Ms. Françoise Le Gall
The new international financial architecture can help African countries benefit from globalization, while minimizing the risks, and foster an environment conducive to increased domestic investment and higher sustained growth. This paper highlights the progress that African countries have made in several areas of the new architecture, but it also underscores the considerable way that these countries must go to meet the requirements of the new architecture.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The rationale for IMF lending to Russia has been widely questioned, as have the record of earlier programs and the use made of previous IMF loans. In the following article, John Odling-Smee, Director of the IMF’s European II Department, explains that the resumed lending was fully justified to support Russia’s most recent economic policies.