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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 41 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs
Paola Giuliano
and
Antonio Spilimbergo
A growing body of work has shown that aggregate shocks affect the formation of preferences and beliefs. This article reviews evidence from sociology, social psychology, and economics to assess the relevance of aggregate shocks, whether the period in which they are experienced matters, and whether they alter preferences and beliefs permanently. We review the literature on recessions, inflation experiences, trade shocks, and aggregate non-economic shocks including migrations, wars, terrorist attacks, pandemics, and natural disasters. For each aggregate shock, we discuss the main empirical methodologies, their limitations, and their comparability across studies, outlining possible mechanisms whenever available. A few conclusions emerge consistently across the reviewed papers. First, aggregate shocks impact many preferences and beliefs, including political preferences, risk attitudes, and trust in institutions. Second, the effect of shocks experienced during young adulthood is stronger and longer lasting. Third, negative aggregate economic shocks generally move preferences and beliefs to the right of the political spectrum, while the effects of non-economic adverse shocks are more heterogeneous and depend on the context.
Keywords:
trade shock; inflation experience; effect of shock; economic shock; beliefs to the right; Economic recession; Natural disasters; Migration; Inflation; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Central Bank Transparency Code Review
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper on Uganda discusses Central Bank Transparency Code Review. The Bank of Uganda (BOU) is implementing transparency practices that are broadly aligned with the good practices for central banks. The BOU continues to improve communication of its monetary policy framework in a transparent manner, but there is room to enhance transparency by disclosing policy deliberations. The BOU has improved macroprudential policies and the analytical framework aimed at mitigating systemic risks, but decisions leading to macroprudential actions are not explained. The anti-corruption legal framework in Uganda applies to the BOU, however no details are disclosed in the public domain as to how it is applied and enforced with respect to the BOU. The BOU should consider compiling and developing a policy on confidentiality that includes the reasons underlying the choices it has made on disclosure or nondisclosure. The mission found that BOU’s transparency practices largely conform to various dimensions of transparency as information is disseminated through several channels.
Keywords:
BOU website; BOU communications policy; transparency practice; BOU endeavor; BOU transparency; BOU department; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial sector stability; Revenue administration transparency and accountability; Macroprudential policy; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
trading environment; D. policy effort; gender imbalance; wage employment; market share; Exports; Women; Gender inequality; Competition; Global; Africa; East Africa; Southern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Evaluating the Impact of Non-Financial IMF Programs Using the Synthetic Control Method
Ms. Monique Newiak
and
Tim Willems
We use the Synthetic Control Method to study the effect of IMF advice on economic growth, inflation, and investment. The analysis exploits the existence of IMF programs that do not involve any financing (Policy Support Instruments, “PSIs”). This enables us to focus on the effects of IMF monitoring, advice, and approval (as opposed to direct financial assistance). In addition, countries with non-financial programs are typically not crisis-struck – thereby mitigating the reverse causality problem and facilitating the construction of counterfactuals. Results suggest that treated countries add about 1 percentage point in annual real GDP per capita growth, with inflation being lower by some 3 percentage points per year. While we do not find evidence for an impact on total investment and the resulting capital stock, PSI-treatment does seem to stimulate foreign direct investment.
Keywords:
WP; adverse selection; absolute value; International Monetary Fund; Program-evaluation; Economic growth; Inflation; Investment; IMF operations; IMF loan-participation rate; treatment effect; IMF's executive board; PSI review; traditional IMF program; structural adjustment; causal effect of IMF-program; effectiveness of IMF-program; adoption of an IMF-program; types of IMF-engagement; Stocks; Consumer price indexes; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5.24 percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in private consumption. Annual core inflation increased to 4.75 percent in May, from very depressed levels, mainly fueled by the shilling depreciation pass-through. The current account deficit is set to widen to about 9 percent of GDP reflecting increasing capital goods imports, but international reserves remain adequate. The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5.75 percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6.25 percent over the medium-term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; core inflation; current account; government; real GDP; medium term inflation target; inflation targeting framework; East AFRITAC; inflation consultation clause; authorities' monetary policy; Inflation; Infrastructure; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Identifying Constraints to Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP and Inequality: A Structural Framework for Policy
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Yan Ji
,
Robert M. Townsend
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
We develop a micro-founded general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to identify pertinent constraints to financial inclusion. We evaluate quantitatively the policy impacts of relaxing each of these constraints separately, and in combination, on GDP and inequality. We focus on three dimensions of financial inclusion: access (determined by the size of participation costs), depth (determined by the size of collateral constraints resulting from limited commitment), and intermediation efficiency (determined by the size of interest rate spreads and default possibilities due to costly monitoring). We take the model to a firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey for six countries at varying degrees of economic development—three low-income countries (Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique), and three emerging market countries (Malaysia, the Philippines, and Egypt). The results suggest that alleviating different financial frictions have a differential impact across countries, with country-specific characteristics playing a central role in determining the linkages and tradeoffs between inclusion, GDP, inequality, and the distribution of gains and losses.
Keywords:
WP; participation cost; Gini coefficient; cost of capital; intermediation cost; Financial inclusion; inequality; income distribution; hetergenous agents; optimal contract; credit regime; lending interest rate; Self-employment; Credit; Income inequality; Collateral
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: 2010 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda.
International Monetary Fund
Satisfactory implementation of the economic program supported by the Policy Support Instrument has helped Rwanda during the global economic downturn. The program focuses on maintaining a sustainable fiscal position; strengthening monetary and exchange rate policies; and supporting growth with structural reforms to diversify the export base and improve the business environment. The authorities are committed to assess the inflation to safeguard the gains made in macroeconomic stability that currently underpin the economic recovery. Executive Directors emphasized the need to maintain macroeconomic stability to achieve sustainable growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; modification of assessment criteria; modification; authority; aid dependency; fiscal policy; inflation outlook; Rwandan authorities; development program; Credit; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria: Staff Report; and Press Release
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review under the policy support instrument for Uganda. Strong fundamentals and prudent economic policies of the past give Uganda scope to implement measured countercyclical policies without undermining macroeconomic stability. Monetary policy has been gradually eased in the face of the dry-up in private external financing. In spite of the slowdown-induced shortfall in tax revenue, the fiscal authorities are committed to accelerate and improve execution of investment spending to provide a positive impulse to growth and remove critical bottlenecks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PSI-supported program; IMF's framework; growth; financial system; Uganda's PSI; core inflation; financial crisis; FAD mission; Budget planning and preparation; International reserves; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Survey
Boletín del FMI Vol.36, No.06 abril de 2007
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
El Boletín del FMI aborda de manera específica el trabajo del FMI y los grandes temas macroeconómicos y financieros internacionales y ofrece análisis sobre la evolución en los distintos países y regiones y en el mundo; información sobre las operaciones, políticas, reformas y asistencia técnica del FMI; síntesis de las principales investigaciones económicas mundiales; datos fundamentales que no suelen estar disponibles en otras fuentes, e informes sobre debates económicos y financieros que tienen lugar dentro y fuera del FMI. Este boletín de 16 páginas, publicado 12 veces al año, está orientado a una vasta audiencia, que incluye autoridades de política económica, analistas, profesionales del mundo académico y de los medios de difusión y estudiantes. Disponible en inglés, español y francés.
Keywords:
SV; economy; GDP; SDR; Rodrigo de Rato
Cover IMF Survey
Bulletin du FMI vol. 36, n° 6, avril 2007
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En mettant l’accent sur le travail du FMI et sur les grandes questions macroéconomiques et financières internationales, le Bulletin du FMI présente une analyse des développements nationaux, régionaux et mondiaux, des informations sur le travail, les politiques, les réformes et les activités d'assistance technique du FMI, les conclusions d'études de calibre mondial, des données essentielles qui ne sont souvent pas disponibles ailleurs, ainsi que des rapports sur les discussions économiques et financières au sein du FMI et ailleurs. Publié douze fois par an, ce bulletin de seize pages s'adresse à un large public : dirigeants, analystes, chercheurs, étudiants et journalistes. Disponible en anglais, français et espagnol.
Keywords:
SV; economy; GDP; SDR; Rodrigo de Rato