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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 15 items for :

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Cover Departmental Papers
Macroeconomic Research in Low-income Countries: Advances Made in Five Key Areas Through a DFID-IMF Collaboration
Hites Ahir
,
Hendre Garbers
,
Mattia Coppo
,
Mr. Giovanni Melina
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
,
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
,
Vivian Malta
,
Xin Tang
,
Daniel Gurara
,
Luis-Felipe Zanna
,
Linda G. Venable
,
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
, and
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
Despite strong economic growth since 2000, many low-income countries (LICs) still face numerous macroeconomic challenges, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the deceleration in real GDP growth during the 2008 global financial crisis, LICs on average saw 4.5 percent of real GDP growth during 2000 to 2014, making progress in economic convergence toward higher-income countries. However, the commodity price collapse in 2014–15 hit many commodity-exporting LICs and highlighted their vulnerabilities due to the limited extent of economic diversification. Furthermore, LICs are currently facing a crisis like no other—COVID-19, which requires careful policymaking to save lives and livelihoods in LICs, informed by policy debate and thoughtful research tailored to the COVID-19 situation. There are also other challenges beyond COVID-19, such as climate change, high levels of public debt burdens, and persistent structural issues.
Keywords:
Low-income-countries; Investments; Monetary policy; DPPP; DP; transmission mechanism; exchange rate; IMF economist; interest rate; LIC economy; rate of return; credit entry; IMF country team; IMF gender portal; monetary policy formulation; DFID-IMF monetary policy agenda; LICS face; Public investment spending; Income inequality; Gender inequality; Income; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Expenditure and Inclusive Growth - A Survey
Mr. Younes Zouhar
,
Jon Jellema
,
Nora Lustig
, and
Mohamed Trabelsi
This paper explores the role of public expenditure in fostering inclusive growth. It starts with a presentation of salient features of public expenditure. Then, it lays out an analytical framework that describes the channels through which public expenditure affects inequality and poverty in the short and long term. Based on a review of the empirical literature, it discusses the policy options. Finally, the paper assesses the role of key factors such as the initial conditions, and the institutions, in shaping the inclusive spending policies.
Keywords:
public expenditure; social spending; inclusive growth; inequality; poverty; mean inequality impact effectiveness; poverty rate; spending policy; policy option; Income inequality; Income; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring-Summer 2019
The Spring-Summer 2019 issue of the IMF Research Perspectives explores how technology deals with old questions. Articles discuss the ways technological progress and the increased availability of data have helped in some areas, while presenting new challenges for analyzing various matters. The issue also includes an interview with Gita Gopinath, the new director of the IMF Research Department.
Keywords:
IRB; economy; heightened economic risk; investor; energy consumption; asset price; work agenda; investor sentiment; dream job; modeling work; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Consumption; Asset prices; Personal income; Robotics; Income; IMF research perspective; measuring sentiment; director of the research DepartmentTechnological change; future of work; impact of Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Lessons for Effective Fiscal Decentralization in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Niko A Hobdari
,
Vina Nguyen
,
Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
, and
Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero
Fiscal decentralization is becoming a pressing issue in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting demands for a greater local voice in spending decisions and efforts to strengthen social cohesion. Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to distill the lessons for an effective fiscal decentralization reform, focusing on the macroeconomic aspects. The main findings for sub-Saharan African countries that have decentralized, based on an empirical analysis and four case studies (Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda), are as follows: • Determinants and effectiveness: Empirical results suggest that (1) the major driving forces behind fiscal decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa include efforts to defuse ethnic conflicts, the initial level of income, and the urban-ization rate, whereas strength of democracy is not an important determi-nant for decentralization; and (2) decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa is associated with higher growth in the presence of stronger institutions. • Spending assignments: The allocation of spending across levels of gov-ernment in the four case studies is broadly consistent with best practice. However, in Uganda, unlike in the other three case studies, subnational governments have little flexibility to make spending decisions as a result of a deconcentrated rather than a devolved system of government. • Own revenue: The assignment of taxing powers is broadly in line with best practice in the four case studies, with the bulk of subnational revenue coming from property taxes and from fees for local services. However, own revenues are a very small fraction of subnational spending, reflecting weak cadaster systems and a high level of informality in the economy.
Keywords:
national government; IMF government finance statistics database; effectiveness indicator; authorities in South Africa; decentralization reform; Fiscal federalism; Income distribution; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are African Households Heterogeneous Agents?: Stylized Facts on Patterns of Consumption, Employment, Income and Earnings for Macroeconomic Modelers
Ms. Louise Fox
This paper reviews the evidence on how households in Sub-Saharan Africa segment along consumption, income and earning dimensions relevant for quantitative macroeconomic policy models which incorporate heterogeneity. Key findings include the importance of home-grown food in the income and consumption of house-holds well up the income distribution, the lack of formal financial inclusion for all but the richest households, and the importance of non-wage income. These stylized facts suggest that an externally-generated macroeconomic shock and the short-term policy response would mainly affect the behavior and welfare of these richer urban households, who are also more likely to have the means to cope. Middle class and poor households, especially in rural areas, should be insulated from these external shocks but vulnerable to a wide range of structural factors in the economy as well as idiosyncratic shocks.
Keywords:
WP; wage employment; wage income; labor market; union wage effect; wage job; Sub-Saharan Africa; Inequality; macroeconomics; household heterogeneity; Macro Models; Macroeconomic Stabalization; Labor Economics; Informal Labor Market; Mobility; off season; wage earnings variation; low income; wage sector; Income; Personal income; Wages; Employment; Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Identifying Constraints to Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP and Inequality: A Structural Framework for Policy
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Yan Ji
,
Robert M. Townsend
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
We develop a micro-founded general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to identify pertinent constraints to financial inclusion. We evaluate quantitatively the policy impacts of relaxing each of these constraints separately, and in combination, on GDP and inequality. We focus on three dimensions of financial inclusion: access (determined by the size of participation costs), depth (determined by the size of collateral constraints resulting from limited commitment), and intermediation efficiency (determined by the size of interest rate spreads and default possibilities due to costly monitoring). We take the model to a firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey for six countries at varying degrees of economic development—three low-income countries (Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique), and three emerging market countries (Malaysia, the Philippines, and Egypt). The results suggest that alleviating different financial frictions have a differential impact across countries, with country-specific characteristics playing a central role in determining the linkages and tradeoffs between inclusion, GDP, inequality, and the distribution of gains and losses.
Keywords:
WP; participation cost; Gini coefficient; cost of capital; intermediation cost; Financial inclusion; inequality; income distribution; hetergenous agents; optimal contract; credit regime; lending interest rate; Self-employment; Credit; Income inequality; Collateral
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Sub-Saharan Africa
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa's prospects have deteriorated somewhat and the risks have increased, according to this report. Growth in the region is projected to dip to 6 percent in 2008 and 2009. The fall is due mainly to the global food and fuel price shock, which has weighed particularly on growth in oil-importing countries, and to the global financial market turmoil, which has slowed global growth and demand for Africa's exports. Inflation is expected to rise to 12 percent in 2008, mainly on account of the food and fuel price shock. As a result of rising prices, particularly of food, poverty may well be on the increase in 2008. In 2009, inflation should ease to 10 percent, helped by recent commodity price declines. There are significant risks to the outlook related to a potentially deeper and longer period of global financial turmoil and resulting slowdown in global activity, and substantial uncertainty concerning commodity prices.

Keywords:
REO; oil-exporting country; fuel price; oil-importing country; middle-income country; broad money; WEO database; oil importer; oil exporter; price shock; Dem. rep.; trade balance; growth episode; Exchange rate arrangements; Inflation; Conventional peg; Floating exchange rates; Oil; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; East Africa; Southern Africa; food price inflation; inflation pressure; Food prices; Income; Terms of trade
Cover IMF Working Papers
Beyond Macroeconomic Stability: The Quest for Industrialization in Uganda
Mr. Abebe Aemro Selassie
Uganda has registered one of the most impressive economic turnarounds of recent decades. The amelioration of conflict and wide ranging economic reforms kick-started rapid economic growth that has now been sustained for some 20 years. But there is a strong sense in policy making circles that despite macroeconomic stability and reasonably well functioning markets, economic growth has not translated into significant structural transformation. This paper considers (i) Uganda's record of economic transformation relative to the high growth Asian countries and (ii) the contending explanations as to why more transformation and higher growth has proved elusive.
Keywords:
WP; SG country; exchange rate; per capita income; growth acceleration; economic activity; take-off date
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2006
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
Research summaries on (1) measuring inflation, and (2) strengthening Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) programs through poverty and social impact analysis (PSIA); country study on Spain; listing of contents of Vol. 53, Special Issue of IMF Staff Papers, summary of recently published IMF book entitled "IMF-Supported Programs: Recent Staff Research"; listings of recent external publications by IMF staff members, IMF Working Papers, and visiting scholars at the IMF during January-August 2006.
Keywords:
IRB; IMF staff research; governance structure; price index; P-D CPI gap; volume; IMF's role; inflation differential; data standards initiative; Consumer price indexes; Poverty reduction; Price indexes; Capital account crisis; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa; Global
Cover Sustaining and Accelerating Pro-Poor Growth in Africa
Sustaining and Accelerating Pro-Poor Growth in Africa
Mr. Kevin J Carey
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
, and
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recently shown signs of improvement, but is still short of levels needed to attain the Millennium Development Goals. Economists have placed increasing emphasis on understanding the policies that promote sustained jumps in medium-term growth, and the paper applies this approach to African countries. The evidence presented finds an important growth-supporting role for particular kinds of institutions and policies, but also highlights aspects of growth that are still not well understood. The paper includes policy guidance for ensuring that the poor benefit from growth.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; country; policy; growth rate; Dem. rep.; sub-Saharan Africa data; conflict country; World Bank's country policy; sub-Saharan Africa country; growth opportunity; country case studies; Income inequality; Poverty reduction; Total factor productivity; Inclusive growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; growth in sub-Saharan Africa