This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5.24 percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in private consumption. Annual core inflation increased to 4.75 percent in May, from very depressed levels, mainly fueled by the shilling depreciation pass-through. The current account deficit is set to widen to about 9 percent of GDP reflecting increasing capital goods imports, but international reserves remain adequate. The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5.75 percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6.25 percent over the medium-term.
An improvement in the quality of public expenditures is needed in many countries, given binding macroeconomic and fiscal constraints, and poverty reduction and distributional objectives. This process involves a reassessment of methodology used for this purpose by countries and international agencies, and the data needed for improved decision making. This paper reviews methods that might be used by international agencies, such as the Fund and the Bank, jointly with a survey of data currently available, required improvements in the data currently available, and required improvements in the information base. The scope for improvements in governments' expenditure policy making is also considered.