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Miyoko Asai
,
Qiaoe Chen
,
Mr. Jiro Honda
,
Xingwei Hu
, and
Qianqian Zhang
This paper examines the role of structural fiscal policies to promote female labor force participation and reduce gender gaps in labor markets in 26 OECD countries from 2000 to 2019. As both female labor force participation and many explanatory/control variables clearly exhibit non-stationarity (potentially leading to spurious regression results), we employ a panel vector error-correction model, in contrast with most previous empirical studies on this matter. Our analyses confirm statistically significant positive impacts of government spending on (1) early childcare and education, (2) active labor market programs, and (3) unemployment benefits, all of which would help encourage women to enter the labor force, while (4) an increase in relative tax rate on second earner could have negative impact on female labor force participation.
Ms. Katherine Baer
,
Ms. Margaret Cotton
,
Elizabeth Gavin
,
Cindy Negus
, and
Katrina R Williams
This technical note provides an overview of current issues and ideas that revenue administrations can consider regarding gender equality. It discusses the interactions between revenue administrations and gender equality and explores how revenue administrations can administer gender-sensitive tax laws effectively and apply a gender lens when administering tax or trade laws with a view to reducing barriers for women’s employment, entrepreneurship, and trade. It also provides practical considerations for a revenue administration in building gender perspectives in reform plans and shares several examples that highlight targeted measures that have led to positive outcomes in several countries.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Uganda has achieved significant improvements in public investment management over the last few years. The new IMF Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) report shows that Uganda is well ahead of its comparators in many aspects of public investment management, in particular in institutional design. A number of important measures have been undertaken, including giving the Development Committee a strong role as a gatekeeper for new investment proposals, the establishment of the Projects Analysis and Public Investment Department, and development of guidelines and manuals to improve the quality of project preparation and appraisal. Many reforms are fairly recent and are not fully institutionalized, so there is a clear need to continue and to further strengthen public investment management in Uganda. The IMF and other development partners are active partners to the government in pursuing these reforms.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The authorities have reacted to the COVID-19 crisis in an appropriate manner, including through increased spending on health and a rollout of the vaccination program. Nevertheless, the deterioration of socio-economic indicators during the pandemic could create scars that would significantly lower growth if left unaddressed.
Hites Ahir
,
Hendre Garbers
,
Mattia Coppo
,
Mr. Giovanni Melina
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
,
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
,
Vivian Malta
,
Xin Tang
,
Daniel Gurara
,
Luis-Felipe Zanna
,
Linda G. Venable
,
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
, and
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
Despite strong economic growth since 2000, many low-income countries (LICs) still face numerous macroeconomic challenges, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the deceleration in real GDP growth during the 2008 global financial crisis, LICs on average saw 4.5 percent of real GDP growth during 2000 to 2014, making progress in economic convergence toward higher-income countries. However, the commodity price collapse in 2014–15 hit many commodity-exporting LICs and highlighted their vulnerabilities due to the limited extent of economic diversification. Furthermore, LICs are currently facing a crisis like no other—COVID-19, which requires careful policymaking to save lives and livelihoods in LICs, informed by policy debate and thoughtful research tailored to the COVID-19 situation. There are also other challenges beyond COVID-19, such as climate change, high levels of public debt burdens, and persistent structural issues.
Mr. Younes Zouhar
,
Jon Jellema
,
Nora Lustig
, and
Mohamed Trabelsi
This paper explores the role of public expenditure in fostering inclusive growth. It starts with a presentation of salient features of public expenditure. Then, it lays out an analytical framework that describes the channels through which public expenditure affects inequality and poverty in the short and long term. Based on a review of the empirical literature, it discusses the policy options. Finally, the paper assesses the role of key factors such as the initial conditions, and the institutions, in shaping the inclusive spending policies.
Mr. Niko A Hobdari
,
Vina Nguyen
,
Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
, and
Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero
Fiscal decentralization is becoming a pressing issue in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting demands for a greater local voice in spending decisions and efforts to strengthen social cohesion. Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to distill the lessons for an effective fiscal decentralization reform, focusing on the macroeconomic aspects. The main findings for sub-Saharan African countries that have decentralized, based on an empirical analysis and four case studies (Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda), are as follows: • Determinants and effectiveness: Empirical results suggest that (1) the major driving forces behind fiscal decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa include efforts to defuse ethnic conflicts, the initial level of income, and the urban-ization rate, whereas strength of democracy is not an important determi-nant for decentralization; and (2) decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa is associated with higher growth in the presence of stronger institutions. • Spending assignments: The allocation of spending across levels of gov-ernment in the four case studies is broadly consistent with best practice. However, in Uganda, unlike in the other three case studies, subnational governments have little flexibility to make spending decisions as a result of a deconcentrated rather than a devolved system of government. • Own revenue: The assignment of taxing powers is broadly in line with best practice in the four case studies, with the bulk of subnational revenue coming from property taxes and from fees for local services. However, own revenues are a very small fraction of subnational spending, reflecting weak cadaster systems and a high level of informality in the economy.
Mr. Masahiro Nozaki
How much of an internal rate of return would a sustainable pay-as-you-go pension system offer current and future generations equally? The answer is the sum of the Long-Run Biological Interest Rates (LBIR), the real-world equivalent of Samuelson’s (1958) biological interest rate, and future productivity growth. Reflecting global population ageing, the median LBIR across 172 countries is as low as 1 percent per year. The LBIRs are particularly low in advanced countries, estimated to be negative in many of them, and require ample financial reserves today or future productivity growth to maintain participation in pension schemes. On the other hand, the LBIRs in less developed regions, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, are relatively high, indicating a potential to use a pay-as-you-go scheme to expand the coverage of public pensions. Raising the retirement age by five years brings up the LBIR by 40 basis points, significantly improving the long-run budget constraint of a pension scheme.
International Monetary Fund
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
International Monetary Fund
Satisfactory implementation of the economic program supported by the Policy Support Instrument has helped Rwanda during the global economic downturn. The program focuses on maintaining a sustainable fiscal position; strengthening monetary and exchange rate policies; and supporting growth with structural reforms to diversify the export base and improve the business environment. The authorities are committed to assess the inflation to safeguard the gains made in macroeconomic stability that currently underpin the economic recovery. Executive Directors emphasized the need to maintain macroeconomic stability to achieve sustainable growth.