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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Economic recovery continues to gain strength following a rapid decline in inflation, favorable agriculture and robust industrial and services activity. Fiscal financing and foreign portfolio flows are facing headwinds amid tight global financial conditions and the passage of the Anti-Homosexuality Act in May 2023. The authorities are implementing fiscal consolidation to contain vulnerabilities, maintaining a moderately tight monetary stance in the face of upside risks to inflation and undertaking reforms to improve governance and reduce corruption. All September 2023 quantitative performance criteria were met, as well as most June 2023 indicative targets (ITs). Preliminary data suggest that the December 2023 IT for net credit to government and inflation were met but the IT for net international reserves was missed. Four out of seven structural benchmarks for the current review were met on or before test dates, and one was completed with a delay.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines tax policy and administrative changes in Eastern African Community (EAC) countries with a view to benchmark Kenya’s experience and draw lessons for future tax reforms. Using granular data from a new IMF database on tax measures announced during 1988–2022, it concludes that EAC policymakers frequently changed their tax system and administrations by announcing tax packages that typically consisted of measures to narrow the tax base and strengthen tax administrative practices. Kenya appeared to be one of the EAC countries that most frequently announced and introduced such changes, which might have played a significant role in explaining the reduction in the tax-to-gross domestic product ratio experienced by the country since 2014. The conclusions of this note are subject to caveats, as the frequency of tax measures is not an indicator of the actual revenue impact of such measures. Looking at the frequency of changes, however, can help identify reform episodes providing a sense of their duration and comprehensiveness.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Uganda’s Second and Third Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Access. The Ugandan authorities are persevering in their reforms despite facing multiple shocks from an unfavorable external environment and new public health challenges. The authorities remain committed to implementing reforms supported by the ECF. Maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving budget composition, and reducing government financing needs will help boost private sector growth and improve people’s livelihoods. Continued resolute and timely implementation of structural reforms, including anticorruption and governance measures, remains key for the success of the program. The Ebola outbreak, rising security challenges, and further spillovers from the war in Ukraine represent the main risks. Uganda’s moderate level of public debt and continued access to concessional financing would provide space to achieve program objectives. A structural benchmark on the asset declaration regime was converted into a prior action for the review and has been met.
Mr. Xavier Debrun
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Mr. Paul R Masson
This paper develops a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis of monetary integration, and applies it to the currency unions actively pursued in Africa. The benefits of monetary union come from a more credible monetary policy, while the costs derive from real shock asymmetries and fiscal disparities. The model is calibrated using African data. Simulations indicate that the proposed EAC, ECOWAS, and SADC monetary unions bring about net benefits to some potential members, but modest net gains and sometimes net losses for others. Strengthening domestic macroeconomic frameworks is shown to provide some of the same improvements as monetary integration, reducing the latter’s relative attractiveness.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa's prospects have deteriorated somewhat and the risks have increased, according to this report. Growth in the region is projected to dip to 6 percent in 2008 and 2009. The fall is due mainly to the global food and fuel price shock, which has weighed particularly on growth in oil-importing countries, and to the global financial market turmoil, which has slowed global growth and demand for Africa's exports. Inflation is expected to rise to 12 percent in 2008, mainly on account of the food and fuel price shock. As a result of rising prices, particularly of food, poverty may well be on the increase in 2008. In 2009, inflation should ease to 10 percent, helped by recent commodity price declines. There are significant risks to the outlook related to a potentially deeper and longer period of global financial turmoil and resulting slowdown in global activity, and substantial uncertainty concerning commodity prices.