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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 18 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Economic recovery continues to gain strength following a rapid decline in inflation, favorable agriculture and robust industrial and services activity. Fiscal financing and foreign portfolio flows are facing headwinds amid tight global financial conditions and the passage of the Anti-Homosexuality Act in May 2023. The authorities are implementing fiscal consolidation to contain vulnerabilities, maintaining a moderately tight monetary stance in the face of upside risks to inflation and undertaking reforms to improve governance and reduce corruption. All September 2023 quantitative performance criteria were met, as well as most June 2023 indicative targets (ITs). Preliminary data suggest that the December 2023 IT for net credit to government and inflation were met but the IT for net international reserves was missed. Four out of seven structural benchmarks for the current review were met on or before test dates, and one was completed with a delay.
Keywords:
government debt service; inflation risk; excise duty regime; inflation outlook; authorities' effort; ECF program; financing risk; Inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Second and Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement; and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Rephasing of Access; Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Uganda’s Second and Third Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Access. The Ugandan authorities are persevering in their reforms despite facing multiple shocks from an unfavorable external environment and new public health challenges. The authorities remain committed to implementing reforms supported by the ECF. Maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving budget composition, and reducing government financing needs will help boost private sector growth and improve people’s livelihoods. Continued resolute and timely implementation of structural reforms, including anticorruption and governance measures, remains key for the success of the program. The Ebola outbreak, rising security challenges, and further spillovers from the war in Ukraine represent the main risks. Uganda’s moderate level of public debt and continued access to concessional financing would provide space to achieve program objectives. A structural benchmark on the asset declaration regime was converted into a prior action for the review and has been met.
Keywords:
data release; energy price shock; staff appraisal; high frequency indicator; core inflation; Inflation; Credit; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Persistent are Climate-Related Price Shocks? Implications for Monetary Policy
Alain N. Kabundi
,
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Climate change is likely to lead to more frequent and more severe supply and demand shocks that will present a challenge to monetary policy formulation. The main objective of the paper is to investigate how climate shocks affect consumer prices in a broad range of countries over a long period using local projection methods. It finds that the impact of climate shocks on inflation depends on the type and intensity of shocks, country income level, and monetary policy regime. Specifically, droughts tend to have the highest overall positive impact on inflation, reflecting rising food prices. Interestingly, floods tend to have a dampening impact on inflation, pointing to the predominance of demand shocks in this case. Over the long run, the dominant monetary policy paradigm of flexible inflation targeting faced with supply-induced climate shocks may become increasingly ineffective, especially in LIDCs. More research is needed to find viable alternative monetary policy frameworks.
Keywords:
climate change; monetary policy; monetary policy models; food price inflation drought; monetary policy paradigm; supply and demand shock; IMF working paper 22/207; IT country; Natural disasters; Inflation; Monetary policy frameworks; Global; Caribbean
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa
A Difficult Road to Recovery
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is struggling to navigate an unprecedented health and economic crisis—one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized decades of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.

Keywords:
reopening; recovery; crisis; pandemic; recession; REO; financing gap; commodity-exporting country; policy mix; governance reform; policy challenge
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa
A Difficult Road to Recovery
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is struggling to navigate an unprecedented health and economic crisis—one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized decades of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.

Keywords:
reopening; recovery; crisis; pandemic; recession; REO; financing gap; commodity-exporting country; policy mix; governance reform; policy challenge
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa
A Difficult Road to Recovery
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is struggling to navigate an unprecedented health and economic crisis—one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized decades of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.

Keywords:
reopening; recovery; crisis; pandemic; recession; REO; financing gap; commodity-exporting country; policy mix; governance reform; policy challenge; IMF staff calculation; exchange market pressure index; financial support; IMF role; transfer program; international community; financial crisis; financing difficulties; market terms; food price inflation; COVID-19; Oil prices; Debt service; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; West Africa; Inflation
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa
A Difficult Road to Recovery
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is struggling to navigate an unprecedented health and economic crisis—one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized decades of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.

Keywords:
reopening; recovery; crisis; pandemic; recession; REO; financing gap; commodity-exporting country; policy mix; governance reform; policy challenge
Cover Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa
Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Andrew Berg
and
Mr. Rafael A Portillo

Abstract

Monetary policy in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) has undergone an important transformation in recent decades. With the advent of sustained growth and generally stable fiscal policies in much of the region, many countries are now working to modernize their monetary policy frameworks. This book provides a comprehensive view of the many monetary policy issues in sub-Saharan Africa. It reflects an effort to fill a gap in the current literature and collects research by staff of the IMF and other institutions, as well as from policymakers within central banks in SSA. The chapters explore the many dimensions of monetary policy in SSA. This volume will serve as an important reference for academics and policymakers and will inform future policy debates. The book highlights two points, one policy-related and the other methodological. Although these countries differ in important ways from advanced and emerging market countries, the monetary policy issues they face are not fundamentally different from those faced elsewhere. Policy aims to provide an anchor for inflation over the medium term while also responding to external and domestic shocks. Likewise, Sub-Saharan African countries are in the process of modernizing their policy frameworks, by clarifying their objectives and improving their operational frameworks, making policy increasingly forward-looking and improving their forecasting and analytical capacity.

Keywords:
BOOK; monetary policy shock; money target; interest rate rule; inflation rate; food inflation; Inflation; Exchange rates; Monetary base; Food prices; Demand for money; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Africa; Central Africa; Eastern Europe; Real exchange rates
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Eighth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been sound, notwithstanding a slowdown in growth. Real GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 3.9 percent in FY2016/17, reflecting domestic factors and external headwinds, including the drought in the Horn of Africa. The banking sector remains well-capitalized overall. However, elevated nonperforming loans have constrained bank lending which contributed to the growth slowdown. Food price inflation increased owing to the drought, but core inflation was 5.1 percent in May 2017, in line with the Bank of Uganda’s target. The outlook is broadly favorable. With steadfast policy implementation and assuming improved weather conditions, growth could accelerate to 5 percent in FY2017/18.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; core inflation; rate; report; food price inflation; payment arrears; inflation outlook; staff appraisal; Bank of Uganda's Monetary Policy Committee; Arrears; Credit; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Taylor Visits Africa
Carlos Goncalves
Many low-income countries do not use interest rates as their main monetary policy instrument. In East Africa, for instance, targeting money aggregates has been pretty much the rule rather than the exception. Nevertheless, these targets are seldom met and often readjusted according to the economic environment. This opens up the possibility that central banks are de facto pursuing a strategy more akin to a Taylor Rule. Estimations of small-scale models for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania suggest that these self-styled "monetary targeters" are respecting the Taylor Principle, that is are on average increasing nominal interest rates more than proportionally to inflation. Nevertheless, steep deviations from the Taylor Rule have taken place in Kenya and Tanzania. In Uganda, these errors are much smaller, in fact similar in size to Taylor Rule deviations found for Brazil. More surprisingly, they are smaller than South Africa’s, the continent’s sole long-term inflation targeter.
Keywords:
WP; inflation deviation; interest rate equation; Neutral interest rates; central bank; inflation target; monetary policy tightness; interest rates instrument; deviations from the Taylor Rule; inflation goal; Inflation; Output gap; Interbank rates; Inflation targeting; Africa